Assume the market is correct. Cast aside your visions of imminent disaster and imagine the U.S. economy growing at a 4% clip, with a sharp decrease in unemployment. Let your mind wander free to believe the European “debt crisis” is nothing more than a dog and pony show, which will be dealt with and satisfied. Let’s assume Asia and Latin America stay on its current course, without any hiccups. If all of these conditions are met, where do you think stocks are going?
Answer: much, much higher.
I know, it’s annoying to suggest stocks can trade much higher, especially following such a big two year run. But then again, look at the shares of CRM or NFLX. I thought those stocks made big runs 50% ago. If I am to base my investment decisions on the numbers in front of my face, 2012 S&P EPS of $110, then I need to get prepared.
How does one get prepared?
Well, for me, it’s utilizing The PPT to isolate stocks, by industry, with high growth, high ROE, solid fundies (debt/eq., gross margins etc, and relatively low FPE’s). I call this list Growth At a Reasonable Price (GARP). I am casting a wide net that will include 100+ names, so that I may cross reference this list with my momentum indicators. Building this reservoir of high quality stocks will keep my investments isolated to the very best names and help me avoid getting stuck in egregious murderholes. It’s like being able to choose from the best whorehouse in the world, as opposed to some disgusting rats nest in DC.
Naturally, I will set aside a certain amount of coin to buy/sell lower quality scorchers. But, my focus is now switching from trading on a whim, to something more with purpose.
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BUY & HOLD returns just as everyone dismissed it as something only a caveman would do. I like this optimism.
the question is,do you think the market is correct. i dont think the market cares
Do dividend stocks play into this thesis at all?
no
Expect an almond shortage in the Far East… China has bought … the entire PF Chang’s franchise… and will change the menu… the Mongolian Beef will contain real …Mongolian body parts…and … the Dynamite Shrimp will contain… real explosives… China through it’s law firm of … Hung,Tu,Low through it’s USA affiliated firm… of Weiner & Cox, PC… has sent a cease and desist letter to a Senor Tropicana… to stop calling it’s stocks.. Lotto Picks… the yuan will now be sold through ATMs… of JPM and BAC in the USA… China has bought the entire country of The Democratic Republic of the Congo… just because it can… and all of you chauvinist pigs… go bake your own damn cup cakes…………
have your cupcake and eat it to huh
Reading that made my left eye explode like a supernova.
my left eye explodes usually after a bong hit
and then i have cupcakes
That can happen
lol, Thank you fake Nymph…they can bake their own cupcakes. OK, in 2007 when I started reading transcript Conf Call after Conf Call there was a common theme, “We can’t really sell anything in the USA, but ROW is really buying our stuff like crazy”….reading WDFC’s recent call it is reading the same way “we can’t really sell anything in the USA, but Asia is really buying our stuff like crazy”. So it is hard to be bullish on USA at all. In 2007, I would think to myself, what would happen if ROW slowed down? I still bought like crazy CAT, etc…but that was in the back of my mind. This time, it seems to be repeating itself again…but this time I am trying to figure out when Asia will slow….btw, the Almond issue is subject to our mystery dying Bee issue, Bees are dying off and no one knows why? One beekeeper told me nicotine will actually keep them from Colony Collapse Disorder, fwiw. Shanghai Comp market has been coming down, this Fed POMO and “Dot com ala 2011” is the only thing holding this puppy up, I don’t see any real facts pointing to the market is correct in any fashion.
Are you really checking the pulse of corporate America and the US consumer with a WD-40 cc?
Squeeky door futures are rising fast with the lack of WD-40 in use.
You… are welcome… some of these people are real morons… and don’t forget letter writers and individual … investors … are at bullish extremes… and all of the pundits… are bullish on earnings… and if they meet or exceed I predict… the stocks will sell off…volume has been 2X and 3X heavier on.. down days… the almond issue could be related… to increase sales of Almond Joy candy bars.
Buy the coconut futures. If Almond Joy sales ramp on the almond play get into another component for the ride along.
Extreme bullishness going into a 1 pm auction without Fed being in the market and a new schedule coming out at 2 pm….Doubt the Almond issue to blame, but seeing that Paul T Jones is using AAPL as his second largest holding and a EM etf as his first….we could be see who is selling, he always says he likes to sell 1/2 about 2-3% over resistance levels and 278 was AAPL’s….400 is the next Fibo resistance….lol, btw Almond Joy margins would get hurt, demand is not there for higher prices…just like Steel in China leading into Chinese New Years.
Lumber futures spiking again without homebuilding activity. It’s China buying our logs. I have a small timber stand in Wash St. This week 2 loggers called me to ask to take our trees. The Chinese are buying, driving up raw material costs. It seems China is still in growth mode.
lumber has been retracing.from its own bubble
SOL AXL up big again!!!
fly should have used his cousins’ song, i wanna take you higher, by SLY and da family stone.lol
FTK still going. Up 11%
Take a look at BXG. This is a good stock to buy
Indeud. My reservoir is approximately 142 stocks that exhibit quality earnings and/or revenue growth. I check all of them every day to find value or momentum. If there are multiple stocks in an industry exhibiting a bottoming pattern or begin to get bid without much news, then institutional analysts will most often provide color why it’s a great time to purchase shares which in turn provides an excellent time to sell into the initial pop. Solar has been the latest industry to undergo this transformation.
I feel like I’ve made mistakes by not raising more cash and opening more but smaller leveraged positions (options) on a larger net of names. Every day it seems I miss an 5%+ move in some stock I wanted to buy just because I didn’t have enough cash leftover. APWR was a dagger for me this morning seeing the options up 4x what they were yesterday when I was going to sell other shit to buy the options before the bell yesterday. LDK was another up 10x that I didn’t pull the trigger on last week. I continue to learn and optimize my portfolio management approach while the war drum from Maiden Lane pounds on.
EGO is where its at!
Anyone taking a stab at TSTC. Small float, shorts could take a hit. That being said I could believe it’s a scam pretty easly, but WTF do I know. Maybe thinking it’s a scam is the scam.
Thank you Shaun for your timely help, it has been a pleasure working to get a fix on the app.
Fly, you have a good man inShaun, very helpful, and courteous.
I welcome his correspondence.
you know… I wonder, just wonder