iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,443 Blog Posts

Stocks and Commodites Will Go Up Forever

A great man once said the following:

“Now is not the time to be scared. Cowardice will get you nowhere.  When in doubt, just do it. If you want to do it, do so with great tenacity and vigor.”

I smell the fear coming off of your burlap winter coat, panicked over “The Santa Claus Rally.” U.S. corporate balance sheets have never been better. As a matter of fact, non-financial firms are saddled with the most cash since 1959, 1.8 trillion dollars. There is no place to put the money. Look at THC and BEC this morning: buyouts. Look at the Carlyle Group: a private equity firm that is notorious for making conservative/solid deals. They are putting money to work.

Is the economy kick-ass?

Absolutely not.

Right now, at this moment in time, it’s all about following the cash horde. With rates so low and bonds posing as a potential credit risk, expect to see dividend, buyback and merger announcements to retain front page status. Going into the New Year, I will be compiling a list of companies, who have underperformed in 2010, that might be worth buying in 2011: classic bottom fishing. In addition to that, I will soon switch my focus away from small cap/hot money names to more traditional/stodgy stocks, in order to lower my beta. I’ve enjoyed my run, a great deal. Instead of playing sniper all the time, considering the fact that dividends, buybacks and mergers will continue into 2011, I really need to start structuring longer term portfolios, instead of taking degenerate swing trades. The truth of the matter is, my true strengths lie in my ability to select thesis trades.

2011 will be the year I get back to that: story stocks and catalyst driven investing.

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56 comments

  1. Weezy

    FIG

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  2. chuck bennett

    Top of the morning to you. How about a top to this market?

    regards

    chuck

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  3. ruggyup

    Thesis. Rhymes with nemesis?

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  4. TraderCaddy

    If I was a T/A person I would say a short term double top and a bearish cumulative advance-decline line which should lead to at least a 50 point S&P drop anytime soon (next day or so or today).

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  5. Boowan Korba

    You little-noodle-dicked ignoramus. I play bigger and better trades than even your made-up junk that you post all day to compensate for your lack of manliness. I laugh at your post knowing that a loser with a computer acting like a tough guy makes him feel marginally better. World is a tough place for pansies like you — without internet you would die of shame and depression (in your mama’s basement).
    I’ll crush you in both the real world and in the financial world — your worst nightmares are about to realize.

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    • Jakegint

      Back to English class, with you, piker.

      About fifth grade should do it.

      __________

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    • The Fly

      Boowan

      Shut up.

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    • xxxHuggieBearxxx

      I think Boowan was channeling Tom Cruise’s character in Tropic Thunder

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    • Bubbles

      Could have used more creativity. I give you a 3/10.

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    • Rifraf

      We see posts like yours every 2 or 3 days here, year in, year out.

      “I play bigger and better trades than even your made-up junk”
      Sure you do. That’s why you didn’t mention any of them.

      Where did you say your blog was?
      Oooh, you don’t have a blog. You’re too busy. You’re too important.
      Please add value or get lost.

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  6. heaterman

    Off topic but…….Tooooooo good to not pass along. Really gives me pause when I consider the ramifications of this level of ignorance.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2010/12/09/good-news-climate-change-summit-attendees-sign-petition-to-ban-dihydrogen-monoxide/

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  7. xxxHuggieBearxxx

    I really should have followed the monkeys and just bought

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  8. Bob

    fuck the penguins

    we don’t give a shit about global warming on this blog

    I will be living on mars in a few years anyway

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  9. xochi

    It’s all YOKU”s fault…

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    • drummerboy

      it’s rippin.the underwriters exercised their purchase of over allotment shares at yesterdays close. gs,piper jaffery, and two others. and no shares to borrow short. their keeping a short leash on this one, only 17 mil shares released in the adr.looks like they push this one high. how high, you got me. but no time for cowardice when i entered it wed morning. funny, cause thats the way i felt when i pulled the trigger.just hope this one doesnt turn out like stv. a worm and fried rice stand with a ticker symbol

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  10. Jakegint

    The truth of the matter is, my true strengths lie in my ability to select thesis trades.

    That is the treuth. I have benefitted off your picks in CMI, SQM, ENTR, and even FTK this year.

    All played for the medium to long term. (Still own all four, btw).

    ______

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  11. TheArtist

    Fly, I have heard a lot of good news about the shippers here lately, 2 month wait times, full capacity etc. rising rates.

    anything in this space on your radar?

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    • clegger_2000

      Have you checked out the shipping container companies such as BOX and TGH?

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      • ruggyup

        Do not forget old reliable SSW. And, the tanker companies are ready, China oil companies paying ultra high tanker rates for oil from the Atlantic side of the world. Demand is escalating. Be careful with the dry bulkers, ships are in oversupply. SSW, BALT SB TOO still names I like and own.

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        • TeahouseOnTheTracks
          TeahouseOnTheTracks

          SSW looks about done with it’s consolidation … got it on my watchlist along with BOX

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  12. @sswipe

    I see SCO has dropped from the conversation

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  13. Le Fly

    Sold sco

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  14. 401ker

    I’ve been doing ok with SFL, buying for longer term since the big dip as one of my drip stocks. It’s been going up nicely and pays a good dividend.

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  15. theedge111

    Companies are hoarding cash can be misleading. How much debt do they hold against that cash?

    Corporations are scared shitless because they know this economic recovery if a fraud. I don’t see much of it going back to work. Especially with 10% unemployment.

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    • Cascadian

      Unemployment is not that important to the economic recovery. In human terms we want people to have jobs, for sure, but productivity and activity is what the recovery is made of. Employment is a lagging economic indicator, as is commercial real estate.

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    • Dr Funk

      (agree)
      Almost 50% of that balance sheet cash is international. If they bring it back in, taxes, 35% gone. Thats why all the talk about record cash is so misinformed.

      Cash to debt is about 2:1. But if you take into account the international money its 1:1. They have as much debt as cash!!

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  16. Good Shepherd

    NFLX breaking down?

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  17. Cascadian

    Fly’s the best sniper out there.

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  18. TheV.King

    The V.King has sold 250,000 of his LMLP position and is done for now…Yes DMG my cost are around $1.75…Now I will let this fucker breathe for a little while…1.75 mill left…

    http://new.music.yahoo.com/videos/Kid+Rock/Bawitaba–2143517

    Now it’s time to lift 75lbs dumbells above my head until blood comes out of my ears…

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    • TheV.King

      Just to be clear…this stock is not too liquid so selling it in size might take a few days…meaning it is not a piker stock…

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  19. Cascadian

    V.king picked a nice dip to lighten up his LMLP

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  20. speedius

    Commodite: One who worships porcelain gods

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    • go2mars

      Nice one. Or perhaps a commode shaped rock.

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      • flyaway18

        go2Mars if you happen to see this:
        I am trying to determine the top 2
        restaurants in calgary for steak
        and would appreciate your input.
        or, anyone else from the area, thanks.

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        • go2mars

          #1 My house. I bbq with the best of em.

          These guys are also great.

          #2 Ruth’s Chris
          #3 Chicago Chophouse
          #4 Buchanans
          #5 Ceasars Steak House Ltd.
          #6 Quincy’s on Seventh

          I happen to be a connoisseur of grilled meat slabs.

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          • flyaway18

            Thanks go2mars:
            I googled Best Steakhouses in Calgary and
            their picks were pretty much in line with yours.
            However, I wanted to get a local’s POV for confirmation.
            Much appreciated.

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  21. scum bucket bitchez!
    scum bucket bitchez!

    Buybacks and dividends will only be offered if needed to prop up insider sales. After that the money will go to pay off debt and executive bonuses. Nevertheless, your statement is true, usa stocks will rise forever.

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  22. Mr. President

    If you need me, I’ll be hiding in my cave until this market drops.

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    • Bullish

      Sorry to hear you are still bearish. Say hello to Trading Nymph while you’re down there.

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      • TeahouseOnTheTracks
        TeahouseOnTheTracks

        She’s ecstatic about the new learning opportunity she has to reconcile her trading thesis with her interpretation of the Chinese futures markets to determine what she “missed.”

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        • Dr Funk

          99 weeks of unemployment is “lagging”? 1/2 of the corporate “record cash” is international? Auto sales up on “0 down 0 interest 0 for 6 mos. walkoff rebate credit reward”?
          Markets can go up until the hangover of reality sets in

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  23. TheV.King

    Any more questions cascadumb..I’m going downstairs to the gym in a few…full disclosure i’m offering out another 90k shares at just above 4

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  24. Franklin

    Will Le Fly be dipping his legs back into TZA in the near future?

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  25. TraderCaddy

    I really really like those two new etfs.
    NUGT (2x bull gold miners) and Dust (2x bear gold miners).
    Just like being in Vegas (with better odds).

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  26. AlphaBetaBanjo

    Hat Tip in an old school gentleman way To Le Fly……$CCJ

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  27. Rand

    As seen in texas on a bumper sticker:
    Obama:
    The quicker fucker upper!

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