I went to sleep last night expecting to lose 1-2% today. I woke up to “green as fuck” futures, only to see the market melt away like a chocolate bar in a prison yard. Lo and behold, I get back from the beach, spending the day tossing my kids into the water, and we are rallying hard into le bell. Either way I try to slice it, today was a fucked up day to be long, seeing big reversals to the downside in CLF, SHLD and a variety of momentum stocks.
Tech stocks, as well as small cap, best represented by TNA, are being pummeled. Basically, investors are still nervous about the state of the U.S. economy. Take a look at TLT and FXY for evidence of “de-risking.”
Until we see rates go up and spreads widening again, the markets will continue to remain under pressure. Today has all of the ingredients of a uber “fuck you, you’re dead” rally to the upside. However, once again, it failed due to investor pussification. If forced to guess, I’d say we’re still going higher, despite today’s reversal. I know it makes little sense to stick with a market unable to hold gains for just one day. But this bottoming process shit is a process, not an event. After all, if the market reverses and trades up, monster gains will be had, as opposed to near term limited downside, in my estimation.
Today’s purchases of EWZ, SHLD, DE and CIEN were ill advised. I got caught up in the moment and now suffer the consequences. However, it was a reasonable bet. Nevertheless, I still hold about 45% cash and will leave it intact, until I get settled into my next destination, further up north.
NOTE: I will be traveling most of the day tomorrow.
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Oh, you’re on the move? Arcadia beckons.
It’s hot in Maine here, and they ain’t got no air conditioning in this part of the world. Ample water is advised.
Where I am staying, they have air conditioning, good Sir. I intend to visit Arcadia AND MORE.
Catch me if you can.
Et in Arcadia ego
I believe it’s “Acadia” if you’re referring to the national park.
WRONG!
“Arcadia” is a video game shoppe in Bensonhurst!~
Foo on you!
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“Arcadia” is the Queens/Lawn Guyland pronounciation. (“Oarcadia”, phonetically)
No, “Arcadia” is a Bensonhurst game room, replete w. Donkey Kong, Ms. Pac Man, etc. etc…..
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Not anymore. They replaced all those machines with games featuring the Mario Bros.
Donkey Kong featured Mario, originally.
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See now I would have thought it was too hot even for the beach today !
Sold pwer today for over 90% profit. Sitting on tna which I picked up toward the end of last week. I promised my partner (already in the ppt) that if I made money on tna, I would buy a second subscription to ppt.
Still holding. 😉
No gas for rally…we still need to go down to 1007/997ish level…nice retest of the 1040…which long term will fail…like duh.
Only bearish factor I see is potential bounce in the Dollar.But,it is balanced by overbought Yen, Bonds, and Swiss Franc ( TLT FXF and FXY). The fear trade remains too crowded. The fact that oil, gold, and the dollar are now all decoupling from each other is likely frying alot of algo HFT traders. As a result, there should continue to be wild intraday swings. Albeit, with an upward bias.
much respect to you fly, even when you make the wrong moves you post it, most people wouldn’t say shit! Today was fucked every which way you look at it! better luck tomorrow!
Fly- admirable of you to post while on vacation. Travel safe, keep your eyes open on the road.
will you be traveling via “whale boat” or was that today?
A certain former Ibc blogger went 100% long–with his largest position being IMAX –on July 1st. That’s the last post on his new blog. Im not going to say who, but his name rhymes with “Genry Pool”.
That being said, IMAX does look excellent for an entry here.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=imax
That guy is a portfolio rapist. No means no, and a 1 day drop of 40% (TIVO) doesn’t mean “buy the dip.”
Im actually surprised that TIVO didn’t fall faster.
They’ve been ripped off by every cable/satellite provider. They all provide their own generic DVR recorders, now. I cant see why TIVO would even exist in 5 years.
There’s nothing wrong with countertrend trading. The problem is, he keeps doing it with discretionary stocks. One headline, one lawsuit–and any discretionary stock can go to Zero overnight.
For example, IMAX chose to release a movie about sparkly vampire elves in 3D. There is no stop loss wide enough, no margin deep enough, to protect against that.
If they can successfully defend their patents, they could be around for a while.
Im going 100% long Sansui. They’re due for a comeback!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HANkQwz_P5k&feature=related
No, i am driving. Perhaps i can run one of you fuckers over?
I’ll be sure to spray your undercarriage so that you remember me into the next state.
You probably will run someone over with those rusty brakes.
Zoink!
dow up, vxx down, dow down, vxx down. i’ll take the whipsaw tight range action as a “hammering out a bottom” bottoming process which doesn’t happen overnight. kept my vxx short (from 31) and added to my RDN long (at 7).
wish i kept my DRV (up another 5%) as real estate was down hard again today. if we do have a short term rally might use the melt up to short IYR.
btw tomorrow at close of market Direxion is reverse splitting a whole litter of their funds (DRV included). http://bit.ly/c49fsW
look at the vix compared to the S&P. The dow has nothing to do with the VIX directly, nor the VXX.
plus the only thing the vxx measures is difference between the puts and calls premium in relation to strike price.
gentlemen and new people…the link that the gentleman posted above might involve you…if you bought any of those listed ,it would be prudent of you to check with your trader servant to go over terms and conditions…
and i would do that before the end of after hours trading
I bought MSFT two days ago and have added more each day, including today. The technicals are still looking strong on the daily and weekly charts. This rally has some ways to go before it ends. It may be a wild ride but it is going up.
You should have your IT man put up a “Where is Le Fly” map, with a Lexus rolling, ever so smoothly, up the I-95 cooridor.
GREAT SONG SELECTION FLY. GREAT SONG SELECTION
Head fake. Took advantage of the bounce to add a hedge and a short position.
We’re going higher. There, I said it.
Everybody go buy stocks like Chinese millionaires buy………..whatever it is they buy.
Louis Vuitton bags.
http://www.hongkonghustle.com/wp-content/photos/Louis_Vuitton_Hong_Kong_sho.jpg
Looks like they buy $45k dogs.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/life/2010-04/20/content_9751538.htm
gourmet specialty.
I rike to buy white Amelican slave girls fo my plivate preasures.
Mr. Wang:
That would be srave girrs.
Please learn chinese.
You need to keep building up the short base in the market…now they are ubber-confident thinking every rally will fail….that’s what will keep the rally slowly grinding higher…remember, it goes up in steps and down in an elevator.
Neighbor Fly. Thanks for asking the Steve Family to come on vacation with you. It is as much fun as that water park we went to couple of years ago. Strapping Fly, Jr. and Steve, Jr. to the hood of your yellow PT Cruiser was a great idea and gave us all some more room, although Mrs. Fly did not look so good when you made that curve around the top of Acadia National Park. It was a shame that we had to get off the whale sight seeing boat this AM, but it was like what the captain said to you when you were vomiting on all of the guests. You are chasing away his customers. Looking forward to the clam and lobster dinner tonight in Southwest Harbor.
pretty lame. too obvious, mundane, boring. try again.
im not concerned about any decline in the futures tonight..i would expect those folks to take some profits..but as you saw it can go to the upside because
the doom & gloom is over
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38112449
Hey, there’s even a glimmer of hope on the oil spill.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUXGbMpEnV4&feature=related
Shooked out yet? I hope not.
nope didnt get shook out…even got some positive info..im in and im stayn
No capitulation here.
we go higher
That what I talkin’ ’bout. Go us.
I know the most bearish person on the planet. He said the other evening that historically the first few week of July we go up.
Wow! Great advise.
I’m all in!
Did you know the human brain weights 8 pounds. 🙂
Zombie knows.
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With the head attached. 🙂
Be prepared, be prepared, and unless you got a spare, you got one life, so handle it with caaaaaare!
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Can anyone honestly say that the real life economy that you live in everyday is worse and not better than 18 months ago?
Are we headed back to the days when people were afraid of having a savings acct at the local bank?
I dont think so. People are waiting a month on back order for second and third tier smartphones. How bad can it be?
I’m just saying
Not worse yet, but $787 billion hasn’t done much for the folks on Main Street, who aren’t waiting on smartphones but the “smart” people in DC to get a clue.
savings are up from what i hear…..http://www.cnbc.com/id/38105326
You remember those old washing machines with rollers on them. The rollers ran all of the access water out. I feel like that we have been ran through the washer waiting to dry. Maybe that ain’t all bad.
I know a guy who has a 7 inch double-sided dildo. He calls the fatter end Boaz and the other end Jachin. He’s really into bulls and the slaying of them. He told me that the market usually goes up at a 51 degree angle then down at a 72 degree angle between June 21 and Aug 12.
He also told me that this july 30 to aug 1 is the most negative astrological alignment in recorded history. He said that the markets will be the least of our worries.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
Which side do you prefer, Finch?
How does the dildo tie into his stock market predictions?
The dildo is just how finch happens to know the guy.
Funny you should mention astrological alignment, Arch Crawford who is a wall street astroliger, said last year end of July 2010, will be devasting for stocks.
There was also an article written by a famous astroliger, (sorry name escapes me now, but I will find if anyone intrested) this article was written 2001, she stated in it that 2nd half of 2010-2012 will be the most difficult time for the USA since the civil war.
I am not saying I believe this stuff, but i do find it very intresting. I personally had a tough time in my business life in 2002, my wife knows a lot about astroligy though she does not discuss it with me, to chill me out she got my chart read by a pro, she did’nt tell me she had done this, but the chart was so positive about my future, she read it to me, I tell you everything came to true in that chart reading, everything, really amazing.
We run our lives based on the time and the seasons. Our decisions are often based on time. Traders typically try to time the market. Chartists look at prices over different time frames.
Time is measured and based the movement of the earth around the sun and the cycles of the moon..
Makes sense there would be some kind of connection.
Or not.
If there aren’t any entrails involved, it’s bogus.
bro, you can’t even spell astrology…
Consensus and how to benefit from it – http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2010/07/07/one-step-ahead-of-consensus/
The second brightest thing in the sky, venus, traces out a 5-pointed star, a pentagram, over the earth every 8 earth solar years, which is 13 venus years.
The 7 inch Boaz and Jachin dildo is what fucks stuff up in order to create order. Its a tool. As is crisis, fear, immigration, and opium.
Has anyone considered that we want the opium as much as the oil?
The market is also a tool, that is used very similarly to the double-sided dildo. The goal is to F everyone and bring back the kings.
I hope everyone had a great 4th!
Now back to reality
http://www.aolnews.com/nation/article/is-the-american-dynasty-in-decline-the-charts-dont-lie-/19270267
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1449768195&play=1
http://www.jhuapl.edu/urw_symposium/proceedings/2009/Authors/Rickards.pdf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vQpW9XRiyM
Best time to get rich though
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -109 2018