Breadth is horrific across the board. Many of the little things that I look at, when analyzing intra-day trends, point to a 4%+ down day. Of course things can change and unicorns can grow cocks; but I’d be VERY, VERY careful about picking stocks here. See folks, the deflationary vortex is upon you. Both Spain and Greece need to roll over debt next month and all of our leaders are discussing ways to trim debt. That’s EXACTLY the wrong response to this crisis. We need more unbridled spending, not austerity.
So, as your local policy makers assure the next Great Depression, bank a little coin in the market by betting against them.
This is not a fucking game anymore people, where you can simply take this shit in stride and hope to “play the next bounce.” This drop is the real McCoy.
Trade accordingly.
NOTE: Who the fuck is McCoy?
Colt McCoy……Browns Super Bowl Champs
Flash-crash part deux?
Seems like a great time for a vacation no?
I believe “McCoy” deals with illicit whiskey of some kind.
Correuct:
“The Real MacKay,” a Scots phrase that appeared first in 1856 as “A drappie o’ [drop of] the real MacKay,” by the Scottish National Dictionary; the same work says that the phrase was later adopted as a slogan to promote G Mackay & Co Ltd’s whisky. The Oxford English Dictionary quotes Robert Louis Stevenson from 1883 in a letter saying “He’s the real Mackay.”
In Scotland the reference is always the real MacKay (with the ay pronounced as i). In Ireland this changed to McCoy. The Irish MacKays, McCoys and Magees originated in Scotland and the Isle of Man, crossing to Ulster as Gallowglasses in the 13th century.
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Paranoid are we?
And yet, here is PM green thus far. Astounding, if I say so myself.
If you believe in Wikiality:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_real_McCoy
It is a corruption of the Scots “The real MacKay”, first recorded in 1856 as: “A drappie o’ the real MacKay,” (A drop of the real MacKay), and this is widely accepted as the origin.[1][2][3]
How it came to be “McCoy” is unclear – it is first recorded in this form in the US in 1908[4] – and the phrase is the subject of numerous fanciful folk etymologies.
Whats the downside target
Dow 8400
Thanks Dr.
Both Spain and Greece need to roll over debt next month and all of our leaders are discussing ways to trim debt. That’s EXACTLY the wrong response to this crisis. We need more unbridled spending, not austerity.
There’s no choice and economics tells it actually helps, as the funds governments were using was crowding out other superior private spending.
The government has to borrow the money to spend it. In other words it has to take it from private savings. However savings are invested in the private market which someone else is using.
Suggesting that a drop in government spending will cause a slowdown is a Keynesian fallacy.
That’s not to suggest we can’t go lower in stocks.
I don’t think I agree with that old addage here j. The government does not, strictly speaking, have to crowd anyone out. That’s half the problem. It’s one thing if government forces come in, businesses go under, and we can clearly see the loss.
But this is a credit bubble. The government did not borrow the money to spend it. The crux of the problem is that, essentially, no crowding out did occur. We were making entirely too much shit. Look at the automotive industry; absurd quantities of vehicles being produced. Far more than we could possibly need.
From where I stand now, seeing that we are going lower, it seems apparent that we have too much stuff, not too little. No one wants it and so it has very little value. Hence, prices are about to go much lower.
Cain;
The government borrows the money to deficit spend when it is not QEing. That money has to come from somewhere, so where does it come from? It has to come from savings. Savings are what people have in the bank which is the liability side of a bank’s balance sheet. That supports what is on the asset side. The asset side is spending.
The last part of your thesis suggest you don’t agree with Says law. The Keynesian have tried but up to now they have only ignored Says law, not refuted it.
On the contrary, I completely agree with Says law. However, as to your assertion that the money had to come from somewhere, and your presupposition that that somewhere was savings, I would contest that.
I think the real problem here is that the money was not necessarily coming from anywhere. The advent of credit has made it quite possible to grant “payment” to multiple parties without having the savings necessary to complete the transaction. The loose ends were tied to derivative contracts and stashed away, until they innevitably failed and brought turmoil.
Says law: “products are paid for with products”
The 21st Century Anamoly: “products are paid for with products eventually, until they aren’t”
I’d guess that’s what we’re seeing here. Instead of government crowding out, credit expansion permitted two parties to each make one good where only one good was ever needed. Both parties assumed they would be able to sell their good to the place of the one required, and each assumed that they could sell it at the same price where only one was being produced before.
Obviously, eventually it comes to an end and Says law reverts to its natural form. However, the corruption of that reason enabled a temporary phenomenon which leaves us with many extra goods and no need for either of the two producers for a time.
” However, as to your assertion that the money had to come from somewhere, and your presupposition that that somewhere was savings, I would contest that.”
Well how exactly? Where does the money come from that the government is borrowing with the exception of the previous load of QE?
Bank credit is not ratcheting up higher and in fact it’s actually come down , so it’s not coming from higher leverage in the banking system.
The government is crowding out and continues to crowd out private sector spending.
Deficit spending is the most cancerous thing to economic growth.
The so-called glut is the Keynesian fallacy of too little demand which is contrary to Says law. You can’t have it both ways here Cain. You either disagree with it or you do agree with it.
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2009/12/10/a-natural-rally/#comment-139093
Q- Where does money come from if it does not come from savings?
A- Ben Bernanke’s printing press.
Says did not have such a printing press in 18th century France, or whenever that was.
I don’t see demand being the issue at the moment, so much as our discovering we have entirely to much supply (although that seems tantamount to the same). And I don’t disagree that austerity is the way to go. Government spending will not help this situation. So I think you’re mistaking my comment as me disagreeing with you. Not so.
My only point is that I don’t believe the government ceasing to spend will help the situation except to not make it worse. We’ve come too far at this point as a result of twenty years of hyperproduction. Even if we suddenly return capital to the private sector, the private sector is looking like it’s about to digest massive depreciation of assets across the board.
I was saying I’m not sure austerity will produce some hypothetical uptick in what was lost productivity. I think we’re pretty fucked either way, until we draw down goods and reach some agreements to settle debt loads, particularly of private citizens.
Moving the budget back to balance is NOT austerity, Cain.
I really don’t know where our heads have gone when we actually think that moving towards a balanced budget is being austere.
Sadly even the venerable fly has fallen for that now 🙂
I blame the grubby Krugman for this poisonous economics.
Gov’t doesn’t borrow the money, they print it. The Fed prints it, then puts it on the “balance sheeet.’ They buy treasury securities, giving the $ to the US Gov’t check writing machines. The point being, they do not crowd out private borrowing. People with $ are just scared to invest in anything.
Unicorns can grow cocks?
Oh sure Cascadian the almost daily bond, notes and bill auctions are all an illusion created by Goldman Sachs , right? They’re not real at all. Lol
They are all a huge make believe conspiracy.
Both things happen. Fed buys treasuries, and of course investors do too. Fed provides $ for massive deficit spending. Which is supposed to get our economy moving. It takes the place of people actually getting out and doing some real work. Just create more ‘stimulus’. Pay people to be unemployed, or go to school, or get work skills or something. Pay it back 200 years from now.
J– are you saying the Fed is not at both ends of the deal? What’s QE, after all?
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no Jake. I was reply to cascadian whose very first comment triggered my response where he said that the Fed was just printing money when in fact the QE has only been a small part of the story over the past coupla year.
“We need more unbridled spending, not austerity.”
I KNEW you were Paul Krugman!! The Obama vote makes TOTAL sense now…
As a matter of fact McCoy is The Fly who used his time machine aka PPT to go 150 years back to bank some coin. Members of this community will, however, be also able to experience such magic by the means of the infamous Deflationary Vortex.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LukqMd5Fd9g/SKtNao6e1FI/AAAAAAAABrU/4KXCWpF2B0I/s320/300px-Cordrazine_frenzy.jpg
DAMMIT JIM, I’M A DOCTOR, NOT A CENTRAL BANKER!!
I can’t believe it took like thirty posts before we got a Star Trek quote.
I would’ve bet this would’ve arrived before “FIG!”
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yes, McCoy ran illegal whiskey back during prohibition and had a boat where he would park 3 miles out in international waters and the buyers would boat out to him to buy his whiskey. At this time, other illegal whiskey makers would thin out their booze with turpentine and other thinners to “cut” it and make it go farther and this caused death and severe sickness and so when people heard about this guy (McCoy) who never cut his whiskey down and left it pure, people would ask for the “real” McCoy as in a pure uncut whiskey that was not thinned out with god knows what….thus, the real McCoy.
This is legend, and you should be apprised that the same McCoy was accused of diluting his whiskey, and therefore having “real” and diluted versions.
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Tonight we eat cockbags and applesauce for dinner!
We got to 1040 in a hurry
Tell me I’m not the only one who feels consumer conficence is the most meaningless “quantity” tracked across the market. Blaming this pullback on, “poor confidence” is retarded.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/06/29/stocks-didnt-like-that-consumer-confidence-number/?mod=msn_money_ticker
OK I only have one more day as the Peanut Princess so I will pump my last night article again http://ibankcoin.com/king_of_the_pg/ plus, if all this continues which imho it will….all I can say is Stupid Analysts.
There is a better story about “The Real McCoy.”
A guy by the name of Dan Cooper boarded a plane, quietly sat in his seat, and gave a note to a young female flight attendant reading, “I have a bomb in my briefcase. I will use it if necessary. I want you to sit next to me. You are being hijacked.”
They stopped at an airport, he got $200K and some parachutes and ordered the plane to head South. Along the way he jumped out of the plane never to be seen from again. Years later another man named Richard McCoy pulled a similar stunt with a briefcase, bomb note, and $500K demand. He pulled off the heist but was caught a few days later and was sent to prison. In prison, he made a handgun out of dental paste and escaped, stealing a garbage truck and crashing it through the main gate. Three months later the FBI found him and when he shot at them, they put him down for good. It was speculated whether D.B. Cooper was “The Real McCoy.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D._B._Cooper
Captain McCoy and his whiskey running is the actual real story behind “the real McCoy” as it was whiskey sold by Captain McCoy that was pure and uncut during a time where people were very sceptical about drinking “unknown” whiskey as hundreds of people died and or became very sick due to the dumping of whiskey in bath tubs and pouring in turpentine and other suchness to cut it and re-bottle it and then send it out to the speakeasy’s…so the McCoy labled whiskey was 100% pure and known that it was pure and eventually everyone asked the speakeasy owner if he/she had the McCoy brand, and later on they double checked and asked if it was the “real” McCoy brand. subsequently, the speakeasy owner would then reaffirm by saying “yes, this is the real McCoy” (brand).
carry on
Maybe it’s time to pick up another load of FTK < $1.20?
To repeat,
the best thing happening going forward is that some brave governments are actually saying goodbye to deficit spending and returning to classical economics. It’s the best news I’ve seen in a while. Hopefully the US catches on and does the same thing.
so you are excited about cutting your social security payments in half due to government incompetence over the last 30 years? austerity measures will be on our floor next.
I’m gonna go ahead and guess that J is younger than you.
Artist:
If the US follows Paul Ryan’s plan the only cuts you’ll see will be for people below the age of 50 and can afford it. There’s really no choice.
In any event social security began to be means tested in Australia (where I live) in the early 80’s to the point where only the needy receive entitlements. No one has ended up on the street even though we’re on our own.
it’s disgusting the rich also receive entitlements.
Not as disgusting as taking their money under the alleged aegis of “for their benefit” and then ending up confiscating it.
If you are a fiduciary in the U.S., you will get put in jail for such action.
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There’s no other way out Jake. Disgusting is too strong a word.
I’m sorry 🙂
entitlement ???
the right to have something; something that one is entitled to (or believes that one is entitled to); a legal obligation on a government to make payments to a person, business, or unit of government that meets the criteria set in law, such as the Pell Grant and social security in the US
Doubt it. J is quite a few years past “Fly Logan’s Run” termination.
He’s here on special dispensation.
He’s also an Ozzie, so he doan care ’bout no US Socialist Secretaries.
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California has been talking about taking the rolling pin to pensions and such. They’re going to flatten and stretch the payments by forcing higher contributions by members and making them retire later. Their egregious projections during the tech bubble were Dow 25,000 by now. I think this may be the best way to compromise with those fuckers.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record,
WHAT HAVE I BEEN TELLING YOU PEOPLE?
DOW9K.
You are smart.
My name may be Bullish but I am well positioned in TZA as a hedge.
MyCoy is he the guy on Law and Order the DA ??
fucking BP up 2% today.
my thoughts exactly
BP relief well is <60ft from drilling to blow-out depth. Well should be killed in 14-20 days.
Take the pain – you can do it – yes you can!
Just keepin it real!
Are you my daddy?
Pass the fawty!
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J
I respect your opinion on the markets but this is all wrong…We are PAST the point-of-no-return! We either print and risk hyperinflation or listen to ALL OF THE SUDDEN REP’S fiscally responsible demeanor and end up in a depression. There truly is no third choice here. I’d say print and hyper-inflate or we are facing deflation of unheard of proportions History will tell you that this solution leads to ugliest things you can imagine, WARS…etc (Having lived through hyperinflation and read of depression, I’d say, hyper-inflate, far better choice. Not taking political sides here but I am sick of republicans who care FAR more about the ‘party’ than they do about the NATION and globe for that matter. And, like newborn Christians with radical ideas, have decided that the austerity plans is the solution if for no other reason then let this WHOLE thing fall apart on the dem’s. At this juncture, we need to bite the bullet and hyper-inflate…a better choice than the horrible/unfair/’communist’ choice of PRINTING if it pleases you, but far less disruptive to the mankind than depression. And the fact that we have Keynesians in power, I bet that this is how she ends up! Print away and wash away the sins of the Rep’s 30years of prostitution to the special interests!
What the fuck are you trying to say old man? You sound like my mother in law, all ranty, angry, and unfocused.
Agreed Dirk, everyone blames all their problems on the government…like a bunch of senior citizens.
No he doesn’t , he’s expressing a point of view. There’s no anger there.
Very diplomatic. You should blog here.
“Rep’s 30years of prostitution to the special interests!”
How about Dem’s sucking the cocks of illeagals and minorities for the last 100 years!
I have to agree with you nominally at least but the illegal and minorities and the community reinvestment act combined do not end up to more than a pimple compared to the reversal of Glass-Stegal, derivative and leverage enablers, rep’s.
In the end, it’s not about blaming any longer. It is about preventing utter global chaos. I’ve seen even shrewdest market observers argue that the worst case scenario would be the repeat of Japan. Hell no it is infinitely worse! Japan had SAVINGS and was able to finance (90%) their debt internally for over 20 years. Not only we have no savings, we are more in debt than we have ever been (including the 30’s)
We are one failed bond auction away from an utter fucking collapse. Geithner and Bernanke need to tell us their intention to PRINT right now before it’s too late. Keep in mind; the Europeans (read Germans) have suffered hyperinflation so they are trying to prevent that. Little do they know that the alternative is FAR worse!
Glass Steagall was separated under Clinton. No matter, that’s not what’s caused our current problems.
Fred and Fannie are far more the root of the problem… and the “everyone must have a house” gov’t directive.
(Before Purdy weighs in I will stipulate that GWB was just as bad about this as Barney Frank was about protecting Fred and Fannie)
Interestingly, it’s what helped bring about the first Depression as well….
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Fred/Fannie was made possible only due to the fact that they were able to leverage 50:1! Who made this possible.
Please let this blame go away, I am guilty of it too…The question is do we hyper-inflate or do we cut back spending and surely go into depression?
I say inflate away! I am fully cognizant and truly saddened of the fact that a very vulerable part of our society gets the shaft…
Don’t you know the history of your own country, you ‘tard? The Dems were the party of southern racists until Johnson rammed the civil liberties legislations down their throats in the 60s. They definitely did not pander to minorities. What party did Abe “Slave-freein” Lincoln belong to? Read some books. And illegal is not a hard word to spell.
And the Roman Empire was mostly run by the Illyric tribes but it is irrelevant to this discussion. We are talking about the conditions that brought us to this financial mess we find ourselves in the last 25 years, ‘tard!
If you didn’t make money in the last 25 years you are a tard. That it was partially brought about by loose credit and monetary standards is a fact we must all cope with today.
I’ve been buying gold and silver since early 2001. How have you prepared?
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joe has moved down to mexico (after getting shot down by his old lady).
What a sad existence you must lead if all you can say is “Joe is from Mexico” and as much as I dislike you, I would never comment on the hardships of your marital status. “The only people who profit from running people down are the elevator operators”
Now, please, if you have a point to make, do so.
So far, the only point you made is that you are a moron and you relish in the fact that someone is having a problem. It is called “passing the hot potato”. You are in a misery but as long as you can “pass” that feeling onto someone else, you get the feeling that all is well with you. Well, it’s not. I could go through the most excruciating hardship in the world and it would do nothing good for you. Maybe you should read Eckhard Tolle’s books. It just occred to me, Eckhard Tolle is the best thing anybody can read at tis time. Did I make my point clear? Please, check out Eckhard Tolle on YouTube and then buy all his books and READ them, several times. It will be the best thing you will have ever done! If everyone buys and reads his books, it will be the best contribution I will have done to society sans raising three of the most awesome kids I could have ever dreamed of. Again, ECKHARD TOLLE! Check it out, I implore you.
I heard you shot your old lady, cause she was messing around with another man.
in your opinion, will gold face deflation as a currency/commodity, or will fear allow it to escape the fires unscathed?
It is a end of days trade and has been doing well. Who knows?
Gold is an “all purpose” vehicle.
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If it comes down to outright survival I’ll take my cans of spam and water over gold…
But the bigger question is when can we look for the 20-30% down month that is nearly inevitable now.
9900 best buying opportunity of the year….still no takers?
i went from 2/8th long to 5/8ths long this morning.
Google “Next leg down in the stock market” =6k results. “Next leg up in the stock market”=FIVE results.
Go check that out for yourself, and tell me the bull side is too crowded.
“end of days” a quarter million results posted in the last 2 days
Buying opportunity? FUCK NO MY FRIEND. Dow is going to dip under 9k before the 4th of July.
Not without oil breaking down.
Escalation in the mideast, korea, russia ,combined with a heavy hurricane season .
All we need is pit traders to be afraid to short oil, based on these factors. That alone could give support to 75% of the DBC commodity sector.
BP started decoupling from XLE weeks ago–dropping 3 to 5 times faster.
The point is, no matter how bearish all the institutions, and every analyst become here–they need the cooperation of commodity traders to start the next leg down. IF they dont comply, and pile on new shorts here, were going to have trouble breaking down parabolic. As i said 2 weeks ago, it will be a stairstep move down. Steep parabolas are off the table.
Unless a hurricane hits that spill dead on. then its dow 5k.
What escalation in Russia? Did I miss something?
Actually, the only thing that will disperse the spill efficiently will be a nice size hurricano of death.
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Let deflation happen. Roll back all govt spending/staffing back to year 2000 levels. Agree to pay back govt debt that had accrued up until the year 2000 and default on the rest. Freeze mom and pops debt/mortgage/cc level at 0% interest for the next 10 years. Eliminate capital gains up to 150K. The last 10 years needs to be erased and redone.
This actually might still be doable except that it would render ALL banks bankrupt. Maybe that’s what we need to do but, when you consider that the banks run our country, it AIN’T fucking happening!
“it AIN’T fucking happening!”
that’s what SHE said
FLY you need to buy one of these
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/7860966/Terrafugia-Transition-flying-car-gets-go-ahead-from-US-air-authorities.html
Increase spending?! – ah ha ha haaaa – what fuking lunacy!!! Get schooled. This started with Greenspan crashing the tech boom of the late 90’s and continued with the subsequent cover up via the Barney loans. Wall street cashed in on that idiocy, milking the public for trillions more. Side dish of the Bank bailout. Now add in Obama’s horrendous wealth re-distributional reparations. And some ass clowns are trying to tell us we haven’t printed enough money yet!!! You are about to experience that sub-conscious sphincter loosening response you get when you realize the tail just broke off your airplane…
looks like i got home 15 mins late …but thats allright i can soldier the middle with heavy muscle from here…im sure i will be doing some cost avg here..probably take some profits before the day is out
Brave short term traders need to go long NOW! 4th of July week is very bullish historically. Market is way oversold by all indicators…If you are a short term trader, take a long position here and exit before close if there is no recovery. My bet is that we see the loss narrow by day end and rally tom.
I’ll take the other side of that trade sir. May the best man win.
You’re the best man today:)
Brave soldiers die first.
I know…
I am talking about buying the SP with a stop loss at 1038. It might make for a bad day if it goes against you but hardly death. If it works you could make 30-40 SP points between today-tom. I would give it about 54% chance that this trade works. If it does you gain a lot, if it doesn’t, you lose a little!
I am dne posting for a while. Make sure to watch Portugal/Spain in about an hour. I think it will be the best game of the worldcup to date!
Agreed. Go long big cap through the holiday, and watch the soccer game.
i have heavy muscle @ 20.00 waiting
filled @ 19.99
Good luck Arch. I decided to blow out of the FAS, and went into the TZA mobile for the short term.
I’ll be switching back soon…
you traitorous fucker!!!…im just cost avg here…and thx
LOL!
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With the market throwing small cap stocks, I can see where TZA is a good choice, and wil be a steady grower for a while.
LOL, as long as “a while” is a day or two. Didn’t your momma tell you that playing with pinless hand grenades is bad for your health?
Hey Fly,
Are u channeling Paul Krugman or something with this SPEND SPEND SPEND crap??? We are in danger of hyperinflation from all this money printing. We NEED Austerity NOW!!!
You stupid fucker, do you think they had any inflation during the great depression? Fucking idiot, M3 growth has turned negative! Take your stoopid 4 figure account to Starbucks and buy your last cup of coffee, you fucking moron
Hyper inflation? You are smoking hyper crack