I pretty much fucked upped with my sales yesterday and today. I should have kept all of my TNA, MWW, GS, X, FLS, PCP and RINO. I left a lot of fucking money on the table, for arrant assholes to swipe, unknowingly, at my expense. It’s not that I need the extra money. I fucking want it.
Markets like this are pretty fucking stupid, with all of its whips and saws. For me, I much prefer a steady melt up or down, in order to build positions or pile on. When markets act like this, it’s hard to do anything but trade. Despite doing a lot of trading, as of late, it’s not my preferred investment philosophy or objective. Trying to catch bottoms or tops is not so much different than playing Russian roulette. You can get lucky lots of times. But, every so often, you get your cabbage blown out.
Luckily for me, my cabbage has been blown out before, enabling to act in a way that protects my brain from sudden discharge. With my hedges and large cash position, I’ve been flat lining all day. Considering I was sure we would trade down today, I will take a flat day, compared to a 10% drubbing, had I been 100% short, any day of the week.
A few quick items:
Feeling natty here, I doubled my SD position. Also, I bought heavily shorted shipper, GNK, just for shits and giggles. Into further strength, I will liquidate my SHLD and GLDD positions, paving the way for a downside bias. I see the rally and it chagrins me to know I called it, yet did not participate in it. However, the fucking stock market does this shit like every two weeks.
No sweat; I’ll catch the next one.
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And that’s the rally I predicted last week. This one will keep going for a few weeks. Load up tomorrow and hang on.
Check the summation index-related crossovers that have occurred already. The weekly MACD histogram has flipped over and is rising, also. All strong indications of a long-term (multiple weeks) market trend change.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
All the hedge fund Ph.D. geeks are seeing the same thing.
Shit happens, that VXX trade pays for a lot of mistakes
Quad-witch option expiration fuckery is the cause…don’t overthink it.
that’s a suburban legend
Maybe, but open interest on the Qs balances out at $46 – just where we pushed through today. Now they’ll pull it back to get as close to $46 as possible to screw the largest amount of put and call holders.
up 0.4% for the day: how gay
“Considering I was sure we would trade down today” – In retrospect, what caused the melt-up, in your opinion?
Why do you say you “called the rally” when five minutes before yesterday’s closing bell, you posted:
>>Just so you know where I am coming from, at the highs of today’s tape, The PPT registered an extreme OVERBOUGHT reading of 3.32. Granted, there have been instances when the reading has been OVERBOUGHT and we proceeded to burn higher. However, more often than not, this shit is razor thin sharp accurate. Plus anyway, the bulk of PPT misreads occurred just before the market took an unprecedented 1 day dump out of 1,000 Dow points. That’ll learn ya for ignorin’ these here internets.<<
Quit thinking inside of a vacuum.
I “called” this move higher two weeks ago when you fuckers were pissing your pants. I said I called it wrong yesterday and today.
Now go fuck a goat.
The lesson seems to be to count to 48 hours before acting on an “oversold” or “overbought.” Will see if this holds this go-round.
When PPT announced oversold in the most recent downturn it was early by a day or 2.
Yeah, that must be it. Or you forgot to use the magical PPT decoder ring that you get for an additional 16.99/mo.
U R banned! Wait……I’m not Fly.
Ha, well time will tell. For as long as I have been following the PPT has been imperfect but very much worth following. If there is no downturn this time it will be the first true miss I have experienced. Anything is possible.
We didn’t close Overbought on the PPT. I too jumped the gun at PPT 3.30 yesterday and bought EDZ at 44.42. Will have to see how this pans out after today’s action. Po Pimp has put a lot of work into his PPT Overbought/Oversold thesis, I am interested to see how it plays, so have put some $$$ into for the privilege.
I do recall you foretelling the rally was only beginning, and you even went 90% long. I saw your VXX hedge this morning and decided not to do any buying. It’s just impossible to emulate the man with the time machine, even when he is winning (if that makes any sense).
I think Drake is gay and just not admitting it. At least that’s the gossip over at TMZ.
We really need some consolidation tomorrow and a sell off down to the 200 (even through a bit would be ok)
It would make for some great ops, most stocks are far too extended now
Capitulated on all euro longs from my 1.27-ish average. Now 50% short via TYP (nasdaq triple short) . I will scale into some EDZ if we get another gap up tomorrow. This isn’t the start of the parabola. They will whipsaw this thing a few more times, before we eventually see Dow 12k in Fall.
I have had 2 losing swings in the last year. Both are when I tried to time the euro/dollar. Currencies rise about 1/3rd as fast as they fall. Even veteran currency analysts cant explain why this happens. Its apparently a market dynamic designed just to F with you.
Im baffled longs would pile into the close, into this major energy policy speech. I had to flip bearish here again, if only for a few days. At this point the $SPY is pricing in a surprise nomination of lloyd blankfein to supreme court. Just like fakeout pre-FOMC rallies, any dissapointing language could sink us 200 points in one 5 minute candle.
At this point the $SPY is pricing in a surprise nomination of lloyd blankfein to (the) supreme court.
ROFLMAO!
Eggselent.
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I was looking for a late-day selloff and held onto VXX too long, consequently receiving a raw ASS-pHuk this afternoon. Any thoughts on a follow-through tomorrow?
The ppt is showing an overbought position. the next move will be down. also tomorrows data (Housing Starts and Building Permits) will be weak. sell into every rally or just go all in short now.
Mkt is bubbly as champagne.
FWIW the guy speaking on the armageddon audio is one AC Griffith.
AC Griffith believes 911 was an inside job/conspriacy among other folly.
In other words, the credibility factor is nil unless you’re a goat blowing wingnut.
better doublecheck on 911 just to be sure
What I have noticed recently (last 6 months) is that I am too light on hedges/shorts when we have down turns and too heavy in cash on the up swings. Like right now – I have been thoroughly convinced of an extended rally for the next couple of weeks and then into the summer; however, I just could not continue to hold my 75% long position (or add to it) as we ran into resistance on the daily charts. I pulled back to my current 53% long position (9% short) and am now sitting on 38% cash watching mother market rip on by laughing like the little whore she is. The good news is that I have stopped the fuckery of being all short or all long. I am lucky that I had a pot-o-gold to draw from while I was going through that boom:bust phase of my investing/trading career (hard fought, self made shit mind you). So, the times of all short/long/praying cycles are long gone. I now need to fine tune the allocation during times of severe market stress. The market thoughts provided here, but especially in the PPT by Fly, Ragin, Jake, as well as all the followers are much appreciated. Now the trick is to make allocation adjustments tomorrow if the data (which there is plenty) comes out positive. Today’s action is either an across the board belief that the data will be solid, or one hellava head fake.
If you believe in TA, you would have noticed a ping pong match between the Daily 20sma and 200sma.. The 20sma won today on increasing volume.. Need another daily close above.
Man, iBC turned into Bearshitter Central especially from 10:30 am – 1:30 pm with guys talking of imminent sell offs, armageddon, volcanic eruptions and market crashes … Jeesh, I could have gotten that BS on the Slope of Dopes if I dare leave these hallowed halls for that kind of investment philosophy!
You’ve all become slaves to your ungodly savior, The PPT and paid for it in spades today …. go worship The Brass Monkey. Me, I’m glad I didn’t get caught up in all the negativity and only went from “all in” to 85% in with 10% cash and 5% short via ETF. Lobstah and Ambrosia for me tonight Distinguished Gentlemen!!!
As for the short term future … my surf master says to go eat a sandwich tomorrow and wait for a another ride to the 1136 pivot … holding all positions and will redeploy my cash on any pullback for the next big wave confident that it won’t be a Tsunami … Hang Ten ladies & gents!
I’ve changed my gravatar so I can fit in with the local crowd while being all Costanza like ….
Regards, Grizzly Adams
LOL… that guy was the most “effete” Grizzly Adams ever… .more like “Granola Adams.”
What was his name… Dan something?
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Haggerty
Gaynola Faggerty
‘Shrek and Donkey’
Win It Tonight!!!
TeAhouse
Quit being an asshole
Ok Chief …
You have to give him credit for the new av, though.
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I underperform the market by one day and all of a sudden i suck.
Unreal ingratitude.
Not you “Oh Great One” … the commentators except one or two were acting like it was window jumping hour, no disrespect to your godly calls … just the followers over reacting.
Off to spread granola on my baked lobstah ….
Transparency! I demand fucking transparency for the little guy! Where the fuck can we view default spreads?
Fuck – it started as an after hr joke to short BP, but guess I will hold on to this thing for awhile.
Mr. Fly, may I know your thoughts on HERO?
Nat gas + shallow water. Heck, perhaps Obama mentions this one tonight… like in between coughs. This market will inflate like the stye on my eye. Hopefully, it will not bust… my sebaceous infection that is.
Ya know Chal, that thing goes away if you can pee on it.
Granola on lobster?? Wtf!?
Rube
granola encrusted robster.
Hot Tip from a little bear I met in the woods ….
Put your green on The Green as the domination continues tonight barring another poor officiating job by the best the NBA has to offer …
Happy 50th Anniversary Lakers …. keep up the winning ways, here’s to Kobe scoring 50!
Last Thursday I wrote about this week, My focus was the German Zew data that came out last night. It missed, it missed big….DAX should have sold off …..nope. What the heck happened, Central Banks, etc came in to support the eur/usd and their buying per gossip at Live, etc was around up to 1.2330ish. We took it and ran with it and pushed the Eur/USD up to almost it’s 1.2350ish level…but it was a short squeeze…that’s it.
trader servant sold my FAS@ 23.70 there must of been a rally or something…
I sold out of FAS today as well… fortunetly for me I replaced it with a small cap financial that was late to the party today…good for me I was just in time
We got no where to go but up.
There is no logical reason to buy and own
Stocks other than your Cash is going to go poof.
Throw TA out the window starting today….we could go
10% in either direction in the next 2 weeks…and not one
Wall Street shiny shoed motherfucker knows which direction
that’s going to be….. All the sudden we have dickheads in America
watching how the Euro trades thinking they can bank coin off this correlation.
Whats first 11,000 or 9500?
Don’t fight City Hall….Don’t fight the Fed
Get off that don’t pass line…….Options Expirations Flash Computer Bots
How you gonna win? I love exuberance
Luvin the whips and saws (visa-vis the market, not what I get up to at the weekends). Built a nice little system in 2008 that is working again now. Another 5 months of this would be nice.
Not great for money managers, but nice for gamblers.
ROTFL @ the ideal Stoner
Does the flea do post trade analysis in an organized fashion?
weak
During all changes in market direction the market will react opposite to econ data… Almost Costanza like.
Econ data looked good in late april/early May yet market sold off.
Econ data looked not so good this week yet we rally.
No need to crazy on MACD’s and Bollinger bands… Its that easy
This market is headed higher… Thats all you need to know
Two Fridays ago the unemployment figures were terrible and the market completely shit the bed for another 2 – 3 sessions. Pretty direct correlation in that case.