Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,449 Blog Posts
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It’s official. I pulled the trigger and signed up.
My idea of diversification is now dedicating 25% of my portfolio toward decision moose and 25% toward swing trading PPT ranges. (The other 50% is following something slightly less risky and less active).
I plan to make my full PPT subscription cost back on Monday when i sell with the market up 1.5%.
I should also mention that I plan to use the overall PPT hybrid score to determine when to “hedge” the less active 50% (where im basically following a ‘hold’ above the 10-month sma strat).
Glad you joined HuggieBear- will be good to have you trading with us. The forum threads will give you a lot of information quickly-including some good discussion on using the PPT range and PPT tools- see you in the PPT soon! lindsay
Thanks for the welcome! Looking forward to learning my way around the tools; planning to start by covering some territory in the forums.
Huggie,
Terribly sorry, we drop 100+ on Monday.
Why so El Presidente?
Even if you are correct, which i find dubious, twould most likely happen on a reversal after some mid-day appreciation. I shall make merry during said appreciation and close or hedge a good deal of my longs. I prob won’t go short just yet though.
If monday finishes up big, i’ll be short by the close. (not hugely short, but enough to hedge)
Welcome aboard HuggieBear! Looking forward to getting to know you more “on the inside”.
Likewise!
Huggie, I joined 2 weeks ago…go to Forums there and I have a thread called “Help I am new”, it has all my notes on trying to learn PPT….most probably know PPT the second they see it…but I am dense so it is taking me sometime to learn the stuff.
Funny you should mention it, I am already on page 4 of your thread!
It’s still a work in progress…still trying to get a good handle on it, love imput.
Hmmm, looks like a near term rollover… which coincides w. my TRANNIE analysis (note, this does not mean we will be turning down for good)…. more tomorrow on that..
__________
The Feb-Apr period proves that a 3.xx read doesn’t necessarily mark a top.
Also true for the July 2009 period. Could be different this time.
Unless China decides to roll on Sunday night it should stay or move up for most of the day on Monday….will be interested in the last hour if pros get out cuz risk/reward is soooo toppy and pending econ data (see my article) could cause problems??? I can see why Fly kept his TNA over night….but it is gutsy….btw I just reposted this in a my old PPT article and FLy’s PPT new blog….but this is finally my understanding of how to use PPT score….IS THIS IT????? Or am I still missing something??
OK HERE IS MY UNDERSTANDING of my analysis I am going to use with PPT
1.Three step process….Stock, Sector, Overall Market
2.I will look at as follows
Overbought…Greed took over, get out of mess
Strong Buy…Risk/Reward is getting so toppy, look around for Fibo Resistance to see what it will be hitting
buy…Risk/Reward is OK, not great but OK
Neutral…speaks for itself
Sell….Risk/Reward is in my favor
Strong Sell……Have to watchout for falling knives, look around for some really good Fibo Support it will be coming up to
Over/Sold….Is the company going into BK? Risk/Reward is REALLY REALLY good if ok company.
For everyone that doesn’t use Fibo, whatever T/A levels, sniff test, spider senses,etc. will act the same.
Indeud
Some rare Saturday reading, thanks to a query on two “juniors on the fence” from Bob the Builder.
Kind of wrote more than I thought I would on dilution, nationalization risk, etc. Good for those interested in the “junior miner sphere.”
_________
Nymph……. You need a Fibo blog. Then we can add 1 plus 1.
Thanks, Maybe one day if a couple of spots open up in the blogs I throw in my name for consideration. In the mean time if you ever need some fibo analysis on a specific ticker just throw it out in my KOPG posts.
Would it be possible to have a chart of the PPT under the graph of the SPX for comparison instead of some PPT numbers on the SPX.
I know charts are wrong.
Indeud it would be. I just made one yesterday by getting the data from the PPT site.
The answer I was expecting, not what I was hoping.
dear Mr. Fly,
grid lines on TOS charts drive me nuts.
Look for DOW 9k shortly.
Don’t believe me? Ask Senor Fly what he thinks.
The prophecy shall come to pass, IMO, within 1 month.
I lightened up on longs a bit Friday (40 or 45% currently), and waiting for the go-ahead to position for a down swing. 3.07 seems awfully high though I think Fly said he was waiting for 3.1
You’re fucking out. Eastbound and Down is On Demand now. Just a man with a mind for victory and an arm like a fucking cannon.
On the reg.
What the fuck happens if the PIIGS were able to muddle through and the market’s overwhelming consensus was wrong and that they wouldn’t bust up the EU?
From the WSJ
ATHENS — Portugal’s economy expanded in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter and Greece remained on track to meet its 2010 deficit targets, offering signs that two outlying economies could be gaining ground.
According to data to be released in the next few days, Greece’s budget gap narrowed by around 40% in the first five months of the year, Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said at a news conference. Revenue in the five months to May was up 8%, while spending was down by more than 10, he said.
The data offered the notion that the country’s recession-hit economy could surprise with a less-than-feared contraction this year. Greece last year reported an estimated budget deficit of 13.6% of gross domestic product, which it aims to reduce to 8.1% of GDP this year.
“In the next few days, we will issue data on the execution of the budget for the first five months,” Mr. Papaconstantinou said. “We have a decrease in the deficit that is very close to 40%.”
“To reduce the deficit from 13.6% of GDP to 8.1%, that is a reduction of 40%. So in other words, we are on target,” he added. “I am cautiously optimistic that we will succeed in achieving exactly the targets that we have set.”
Separate figures released by the Bank of Greece also showed a sharp narrowing in the central government’s cash deficit. According to the central bank, the cash deficit for the period January-May narrowed to EUR9.5 billion from EUR14.6 billion for the same period last year.
This is pretty amazing.
stop it! stop it!! all bullish commentary is forbidden.
J… The answer is, all of the triple bullish etf holders get f***ing rich!
Borkay
It also proved that ignoring a 3.00+ reading leads to a market crash of unprecedented proportions.
Indeud
Fly,
Is it possible for the Ppt to read 3+ and then have a market continue to push higher and somehow have the PPT score to drop back into the two’s? Or is that not numerically possible? Just curious
Fly just answered that. If people keep buying after multiple 3+ readings, it will lead to a catastrophic crash, as everyone and their brother now runs to the other side of the boat at the same time.
pullbacks into the 2.2s are needed during any market advance to keep flushing out the weak longs along the way. otherwise you get way too frothy.
i love how you speak of it as a mathematical certainty…
THE FLY also said this
I need to get the fuck out of here. It’s a slow Friday and I have money to spend, things to do tonight. So, do me a favor and make sure this market stays within this tight range, so I can fuck with it on Monday morning.
Post to Twitter Post to Digg Post to Facebook
Posted by The Fly on Friday, June 11, 2010 at 12:10 pm
Filed under Headlines · Tagged with
Play Your Position
Friday, June 11, 2010 at 10:42 am
38
Most of you ham and eggers panicked the fuck out of the market, aka “the kitchen”, when the heat was turned up a notch this morning. You had visions of dramatic, opera-esque, reversals, under a shit heap of sell order. Lo and behold, after “rookie time” (9:30-10) ended, we are now melting higher again.
Some are built for this shit. I acknowledge the supreme trading abilities of many in my inner circle, including the gentlemen inside of The PPT aka “my work bench.” However, most of you should play your position, which is the bench—sadly enough. Hire a financial advisor or throw some money in a hedge fund, for you are simply spinning your wheels. Life is too fucking short to waste time on stuff that you can’t do.
For example: “The Fly” doesn’t fuck with sheet rock or paint ceilings. That shit is tedious and requires some skill, if done right. I hire “illegal Mexicans” to do that shit for me.
Do yourself a favor and hire an “illegal Mexican” to trade your accounts. He can probably do a better job than your jaded ass.
Back to the markets:
The “buy the dip” mentality has permeated investor psyche again. Fuck the retail sales numbers. All I care about is price action. Do you hear me, you dumb motherfucker?
In short, until further notice, X, FLS, SHLD and MWW are going higher—and are my top picks.
I understand what he said about 3+. What im asking is (since i have zero understanding of what the PPT score represents)
Can you have a three plus score… Go higher and somehow have the score go down. Or will a market sell off only lead to a lower PPT score? Or is that mathematically impossible?
Also, what is the range of the PPT score? Can it go to 4? Has it?
Or must i purchase a subscription in order to answer these questions.
The Overall PPT score is a composite of all the scores in the system, covering over 4,000 stocks. Stocks are ranked on both tech and fundies,
There are a total of 5 tech categories and 5 fundies that make up scores. Then, we overlay correlating factors in gold, commodities, treasuries, currencies etc and build that into scores.
We also have a few other secret formulas that build scores.
Top score is a 5. The Overall score has never surpassed 3.38.
Very interesting…
I second that question below from bullish.
It can go back down again without a major selloff, at least below 3. Note the march/april timeframe where this happened quite a bit. Of course, as fly noted, it only resulted in a more catastrophic decline later.
good question. Hey Fly, what is the *highest* PPT score ever recorded?
top 5 scores ever
Historical market scores (From 405 trading sessions)
No. Date Technicals Fundamentals Hybrid Score Hybrid Change – Daily % large caps ‘buy’
1 2009-07-15 3.36 3.40 3.38 (Buy) 13.48% N/A
2 2009-06-01 3.04 3.53 3.25 (Buy) 21.69% N/A
3 2010-05-27 3.09 3.36 3.20 (Overbought) 24.72% 78.88
4 2010-05-12 3.10 3.33 3.20 (Buy) 12.42% 69.97
5 2010-02-16 3.10 3.32 3.19 (Buy) 12.10% N/A
Thank you sir. I was looking through the historical data myself. It seems that an extreme high PPT reading (above 3.2) often occurs as the market rockets out of a correction (February 2010 lows and July 2009 lows). In those cases the market keeps on chugging higher, and does not pull back for some time.
Fly,
Are you expecting a significant turning of the tide here? Your note Friday hinted as much, in that you said you were long until further notice. While further notice could be 10am Monday, I thought i heard a touch of “don’t fight the fed” in your voice.
Personally, it feels to me like we could get an unexpected grind to significantly higher levels (1150), just based on sentiment. That, and support has been pretty well hammered out.
Just curious what your guess is, or if you are just playing the news events as they unfold (since those have been dominant drivers recently).
HB
I am going to pull back here and take some hard fought profits.
Indeud
I shall be closing my DIG and COP positions, which i don’t exactly remember why i bought those. I believe I had delusions of holding COP for the divvy, but I don’t really have that kind of staying power.
I shall also be covering my short VXX position.
I will close half of my TBT position.
and I shall ratchet up the hedges on my remaining longs.
Thanks so much for the information awesome site!
Boy with everyone “On a Boat” this is going to be an interesting week.
looks like a reading of 3.17 – 3.20 might occur after mini crashes of low 2.1- 2.2 readings
Just saying there could be a little more upside from current 3.07
Fly you need to fix PPT overbought reading, it doesn’t work during extended rally (a long rally that last for more than a month without significant pull back)
thx
Think 2.5ish area for the pullback during those times. You just have to step up and make the call as to whether this is that time. Do ya feel lucky punk? Well, do ya?
Have I ever mentioned DVAX? lol
http://henryfoolspicks.wordpress.com/2010/06/14/dvax-mention-in-monday-ibd/
1099 then we roll over. Maybe. Who knows? Why is this so difficult?
Rubber
You are an idiot.
Whodathunk?
Afghanistan, with their caves, head scarfs, and illegal drug production, has been sitting on $1 trillion this whole time.