iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,445 Blog Posts

The Bailout Has Already Failed

The euro gave up all of its gains, while the dollar gained. Let me be the first to tell you, good sir, the European bailout has already failed. As a result, you must prepare yourself for widespread famine and pestilence.

While it’s true, the market bounced hard today. It’s also true, [[VXX]] is only down .75 from Thursday’s close. For the day, I am down nearly 3%, thanks in large part to [[VXX]] , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] and other impotent longs. But, in the big scheme of things, I am actually winning. More on this later.

At the moment, my favorite longs are Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , [[CBD]] and Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] . I will not short anything due to the excess fuckery permeating out of western central banks. So, when it comes to investing, it’s either fuck or walk. My preference is to sit out the volatility, while—ironically—being long volatility. The key with the markets, short term, is how Europe follows through. It will be very hard for those fuckers to follow through on 9-14% daily gains. Spain is, without a doubt, completely devoid of reason.

Just remember, for it is your duty to do so: “The Fly” wins all the time, even during grotesque setbacks.

NOTE: Believe it or not, The PPT called the bottom again. Even I have reservations about “taking the leap of faith.” However, look at the fucking track record. Uncanny.

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48 comments

  1. Rand

    Bring umbrellas tomorrow, skydiving bankers without parachutes-20% chance, 80% change of hairpulling by noon.
    Oil industry working well however, and generator sales went well today with a delivery of 7 big, nasty, huge generators bound for louisiana. Accompanied by cops and two hoge cranes. Wonder if the gulf coast is the destination?

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  2. slim

    My prediction: Bernanke and Co. and just playing dead, luring in the disbelievers so as to rob them of their coin next week.

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  3. Yogi & Boo Boo
    Yogi & Boo Boo

    Robots Gone Wild. Where can I get the DVD?

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  4. DMG

    I love when you reference GGGR.

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  5. mmk

    Fly, your knowledge of whats hot in the streets never ceases to amaze

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  6. Jakegint

    Sold 40 of those June 111 calls I bot last week… $7.20.

    40 left.

    Might I suggest Ice Cube’s famous “It was a good day?”

    (ah didn’t even have to shoot mah AK….)

    ________

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  7. Prospectus

    I must say, I am SO tired of being a burlap-clad bearshitter. I am also SO tired of waiting for the clownassery of the global fraudnancial system to get cleaned up. It’s just an abject nightmare. I don’t trust them to “fix things”, and I don’t trust them not to try to “fix things” either…

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    • TheArtist

      burlap is not so bad when everyone else is naked.

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    • Be careful what you wish for
      Be careful what you wish for

      waiting for the …global fraudnancial system to get cleaned up.

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    • cebu sun

      So I hear you saying you are having a problem trusting people. Tell me more about those feelings.

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  8. panamaorange

    out swing longs in RSX and EFA. I still think russia / canada will outperform every other country near term.

    the USA just lost all hope of energy independence. No one has any clue how to fix this leak.

    XOP looks like the safest on any pullbacks.
    Im avoiding any ETF’s that hold BP and RIG in their top 10
    They will belong to Barney Frank by next month.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VX0SD_cazhs

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    • illmighty

      I wonder if Mighty Putty works at that pressure and temperature…BP are you listening??

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  9. Asteroids

    Another low volume melt up monday. Hey, I’ve seen this before. I wonder what kind of firepower it took for them to ramp up the futures 50 points before the open. I notice we didn’t go any higher than the open. Hardly any reasons to go up, plenty to go down.

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  10. Treepart

    with so much skin in the game across the board stocks will not be allowed to fail. Expect the 40 points and a mule melt up until further notice.

    Anyone heard from the Chinese lately? What are those bastards up to besides quietly sitting in the shadows watching everyone else scramble?

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    • ant algorithms

      Optimizing the ant colonies they have been building

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  11. The_Real_Hmmm

    Don’t you think the dollar will remain strong as the Fed opens up their swap lines to provide dollar liquidity while we hold on to eligible ECB collateral. If they could get the terms of the swap at very low rates, why not dump excess USD into the US markets and avoid any currency/credit risk while their collateral sits on our books?

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler
      Mr. Cain Thaler

      Personally, I’m not betting there will be any eligible collateral here. I wager the collateral will be similar to the sort the ECB was willing to take from Greece; essentially nothing but a promise. The difference here being that the Fed has a much longer time frame and doesn’t answer to anyone.

      I guess that the spread between the euro and the dollar holds steady, since the EU can now squirrel away our dollars and free up their own currency reserves.

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    • Be careful what you wish for
      Be careful what you wish for

      Much of their collateral, like our collateral exists in books and the minds of dreamers

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  12. The Fly

    Buying 40 ounces of Colt 45 at the open tomorrow, while selling short Philly blunts.

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    • tm

      I plan on shorting scratch tickets, going long crack…aka, the other ghetto pairs trade.

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    • Treepart

      A 40 will leave a nice condensation ring on your jeans as you sit and listen to the Mets lose on your little blue radio.

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    • Be careful what you wish for
      Be careful what you wish for

      Going long Portuguese pawn shops, Irish rubbish & peat-burning barrel makers & Greek shell game manufacturers

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    • Mookie Shnooks
      Mookie Shnooks

      Long pink unicorn slaughterhouses, fairy dust igniters, and elf ear speculums.

      Gawd I love these meltups. Inject more adrenochrome into my pituitary, por favor.

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    • Dubz

      I’ll be selling $POT and buying $PCP

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  13. Sam

    A very confused post, senor. But it has been a confusing few days, so I dig.

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  14. The Sax

    Are you at your target 10k GS shares or did that target change?

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  15. mrkcbill

    Great blogging today previous threads funny.
    Fly that ad in the middle of The Fly’s playing field
    is really throwing me off? Hope they paying up!

    Greece’s obligations in 3 years is double their GDP. Hmmm
    Fuck if you thought GE was a buy at 16 than its probably
    a buy at $18…..if everybody wanted in at 10,000…..than just get
    long quality. 2007 I was getting 5% MoneyMarket from GS…LOL

    Hey….. anybody heard from TC?

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  16. skogie1

    Anyone looking at the EWG as a buy? I assume Germany’s imports will increase as the euro drops into the abyss and eventually disappears. Do the commodity companies benefit now from this? European banks? Let’s hear it, what are the trades while this new found liquidity gets spread around. Long gold?

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    • Tony

      It won’t go to loans to businesses to help the Euro economy. It will go the same place the TARP money went in the US: banks will gamble on stocks, commodities, and other high-yield assets.

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  17. rookie

    Fly u make great calls but i think you’re mistaken about the euro bailout failing… it worked like intended – did u see the cds spreads tighten on the banks? did u see their stocks rally 10-15%? the intention was always to save the banksters – as for the currency itself it will continue to decline due to the monetization of the debt…. same story w/ the US dollar during our TARP bailout crap program…

    bought some more GS today – i have a feeling it’s getting ready to make a little surprise comeback…

    buy oil on the dips!

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  18. theV.King

    First off the V.King LOVES the new ads in the middle of the page. It is like a land mine of annoying information. I demand it stays!
    I have very bad news from the Land of Gold(s) Gym…The V.King wuz a no show, therefore I must wake up xtra early tomorrow for Bi-Ceps….
    Sir Salty Snap Kick…concerning TC…I banned him
    Fly may be gangsta but the Betty White is true gangster….
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlavZybJ6zM&feature=popular

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    • chessnwine

      Hey V.King–I was reading through some of your old posts in the PG. Good stuff. The comments section too.

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      • theV.King

        I know….
        listen cheesenwhine i’m not here to make friends (you’re probably a nice guy) but you know what they say about nice guys…they can’t bench their own body weight never mind pressing a mini-coup. The V.King is here for more important matters…like….like back in the day when The Fly and The V.King used to work together……….. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CErz3t02lxI
        POW!

        The V.King “just when you know the answers he changes the questions”

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  19. sailorboy

    just closing the gap. no trader left behind, you know. let ‘s see how we defend friday’s close.

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  20. vking was the greatest!
    vking was the greatest!

    Comments on the CnW blog aren’t working. “Spam protection” line does not list math problem. Produces blog error.

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  21. Teahouse On The Tracks
    Teahouse On The Tracks

    fixed now or hit refresh for a #

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  22. A. Power

    Those highly educated “engineers” don’t have enough sense to turn the big concrete & steel box cover on it’s side to let out the trapped air that kept from working? ! They need to get an old farmer or rig hand to show them how…….Idiots, all !!!!

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  23. Teahouse On The Tracks
    Teahouse On The Tracks

    Good story on Shale Gas:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303491304575187880596301668.html

    “With natural gas cheap and abundant, the prospects for renewable energy will change just as drastically. I have been a big believer that renewable energy was about to see its time. Prior to the shale-gas revolution, I thought rising hydrocarbon prices would propel renewables and nuclear power into the marketplace easily—albeit with a little shove from a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system.

    But the shale discoveries complicate the issue, making it harder for wind, solar and biomass energy, as well as nuclear, to compete on economic grounds. Subsidies that made renewables competitive with shale gas would get more expensive, as would loan guarantees and incentives for new nuclear plants. Shale gas also hurts the energy-independence argument for renewables: Shale gas is domestic, just like wind and solar, so we won’t be shipping those dollars to the Middle East.”

    Shale is being acquired by the big boys and most notably XOM & CNX. CNX said the credits from ng would offset their carbon tax. Look for more energy companies (oil, coal, utilities) to acquire the remaining shale gas producers to both avoid foreign risk and offset their carbon tax … major producers left include SWN, ECA, UPL & RRC.

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    • Heaterman

      FWIW It now appears that another previously unexplored shale formation is now in play in Northern Lower Michigan. The formation is named the Collingswood. A lease auction on state land last week brought in more $.$$ than the total of all previous sales in the last 80 years. Prices paid were as high as $5500 per acre and they averaged over $1500 for all land in the auction. There were some really heavy hitters at the auction. A Company called Encana did a lot of the buying but speculation is that it was for someone else. These holes are very expensive to drill even with new technology. Although I must add that they are not nearly the amount of expense as BP is experiencing currently in the Gulf.

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  24. tradingnymph

    China take on it…btw not giddy like us again…. http://www.china.org.cn/business/2010-05/11/content_20013029.htm

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    • Teahouse On The Tracks
      Teahouse On The Tracks

      not giddy and not contributing …

      The bad news is China will delay or ease any further strengthening of the yuan. The good news, the stronger dollar means we don’t have to raise rates and kill consumer spending or add to foreclosures.

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      • tradingnymph

        Tea for me this is a great lesson I am learning, When China started spending all the money they saved up, our world markets rallied………If Europe starts spending money they don’t have will it have the same impact?? China doesn’t seem to think so, so far….yet USA and Europe thinks it is the same…it appears.

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        • Teahouse On The Tracks
          Teahouse On The Tracks

          just cuz they got it doesn’t mean they’ll spend it …. kind of a safety net just in case.

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  25. Dubz

    why not put an ad, you fucks? You leech here all day and most of you are click happy, not only in the ticker trad sense.

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