We all see what’s going on, don’t we? Semiconductor names are blowing away estimates, thanks to inventory adjustments/end user pick-up. Instead of giving you food to eat, I will attempt to teach you how to hunt for yourselves. Understanding how cycles work is imperative, when buying the chips. For most people, including most money managers, going with a diversified ETF or just Intel Corporation [[INTC]] is the preferred course of action. However, if you are adventurous and want to play the sector like a fucking musician playing chop sticks, listen to me very quietly.
Here is how the semiconductor foodchain works:
MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. [[WFR]] produces silicon wafers
Applied Materials, Inc. [[AMAT]] , KLA-Tencor Corporation [[KLAC]] , Lam Research Corporation [[LRCX]] , Novellus Systems, Inc. [[NVLS]] , Varian Semiconductor [[VSEA]] produce front end equipment.
Teradyne, Inc. [[TER]] , Verigy Ltd. [[VRGY]] test the wafers.
Amkor Technology, Inc. [[AMKR]] , Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ADR) [[ASX]] , [[SPIL]] and Entegris, Inc. [[ENTG]] assemble and package.
[[SMI]] , [[CHRT]] , Intel Corporation [[INTC]] , Micron Technology, Inc. [[MU]] , Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (ADR) [[TSM]] and United Microelectronics Corp (ADR) [[UMC]] produce the chips.
QUALCOMM, Inc. [[QCOM]] , Tessera Technologies, Inc. [[TSRA]] , CEVA, Inc. [[CEVA]] , Rambus Inc. [[RMBS]] license intellectual property to chip makers and collect egregious royalties.
Naturally, there are other minor players that compete with the above companies and other foreign names, like Hynix and Samsung, that are major players. But, for the most part, that is the food chain. Other names, like Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. [[AEIS]] and MKS Instruments, Inc. [[MKSI]] leverage themselves off the front end and can produce exceptional returns during semiconductor renaissance periods. And, companies like Rudolph Technologies, Inc. [[RTEC]] (yield management), Cymer, Inc. [[CYMI]] (laser light source supplier) and Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc. [[KLIC]] (copper wire bonding), [[ATE]] (sells the machines that test the wafers) supply vital parts to the food chain, giving keen investors early hints to cycle booms and busts. My point: when the food chain is busy and the foundries are ramping up production, like they are now, you can make reasonable gambles that end user sensitive semi’s, like Broadcom Corporation [[BRCM]] , Texas Instruments Incorporated [[TXN]] , Marvell Technology Group Ltd. [[MRVL]] , Diodes Incorporated [[DIOD]] , NVIDIA Corporation [[NVDA]] and Atheros Communications, Inc. [[ATHR]] , will blow the barnyard door off earnings estimates.
If you want to get a feel for how the semiconductor industry is doing, start by studying the food chain, then work your way down to names like RF Micro Devices, Inc. [[RFMD]] and Skyworks Solutions, Inc. [[SWKS]] later. This is the basic premise behind studying any industry, whether it be oil, ag, telecom or chips; there is always a food chain worth examining and exploiting.
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