Over the weekend, a few friends of mine joined me for some brandy and intelligent conversation. Aside from discussing the mental ailments of many of our politicians, actors and lauded asset managers, we broached the subject of “the perfect bear trap.”
Unanimously, we came to a conclusion, which would not please some of you.
The perfect bear trap is an environment where the equity markets and the dollar index advance, simultaneously, much to your local bearshitters chagrin. I know most of you will toss away such talk as “slave-minded rubics cube.” However, I am telling you, it is entirely possible.
It is NOT written anywhere that stocks must adhere to the fluctuations of the U.S. dollar, regardless of historical reference. I am telling you, once again, Mother Market is far too sinister and dynamic to be gamed like that. Fuck around, betting against this market, and you will lose your house, wife and half of your net worth, via egregious divorce settlement.
I will remind you, until further notice, this is a LONG ONLY market.
For the day, I enjoyed gains in Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] , Flowserve Corporation [[FLS]] , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] , Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] , ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] , CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] , Masco Corporation [[MAS]] and [[YONG]] .
As an aside, I wanted to make something abundantly clear. “The Fly” is not better than you because he enjoys a network of workaholic professionals, who share ideas with one another on a continuous basis. He is not better than you because of his experiences, good and bad. He is better than you for one reason and one reason only: he is much smarter than you.
Think about that pal the next time you leave a fucking “gay camel lounging on the beach” message on this website. Think about it.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeUMfZzdiEc 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
fig
Check out Bing with the “Sun-In!”
WTF, Bing??
______________
Aside, on this recording — did you hear that asshat, embittered old public radio parasite commie Garrison Keillor came out with some douchee comment about “Jewish” Christmas song writers?
The irony of this particular song (by Gershwin) aside, can you imagine if some right wing asshat commentator — say George Will or Dennis Miller — had made such a crack?
But I guess it’s okay to be lefty and anti-semitic again! Just like in the Joe Stalin days….
____________
Jake, are you sure he wasn’t talking about this? http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/18/opinion/18feinstein.html
Sure sounds like it.
Here’s the whole piece….
I’m assuming he’s become such a god to the lib press that they don’t even bother to edit him any more, mistaking “crazy” for “acerbically ironic.” People of a less hagiographic bent recall that he went nuts sometime during the Bush years…
Here’s the meat of the above piece:
And all those lousy holiday songs by Jewish guys that trash up the malls every year, Rudolph and the chestnuts and the rest of that dreck. Did one of our guys write “Grab your loafers, come along if you wanna, and we’ll blow that shofar for Rosh Hashanah”? No, we didn’t.
Christmas is a Christian holiday – if you’re not in the club, then buzz off. Celebrate Yule instead or dance around in druid robes for the solstice. Go light a big log, go wassailing and falalaing until you fall down, eat figgy pudding until you puke, but don’t mess with the Messiah.
(bong-bong, cukoo!)
______
Indeud. Sounds like it might be a way to sell newspapers… What a crock.
Actually……he sounds more like someone who would fall to the far RIGHT of Jerry Falwell.
Except Falwell was never an anti-Semite, despite being pretty far right.
No, the irony is, anti-Semitism has come full circle back to the fans of fascism. Odd, no?
_________
Some folks who consider themselves on the Falwell’s short list of Antichrist candidates might disagree
Fly, I’m long GMCR. Any other favorites for the end of the year?
This time Fly, even the popular opinion, general sentiment and media seems to have confidence in markets continuing to rise short term. You take any measure of sentiment and it is all looking bullish.
Treu, one would have to be “fruits and nuts” to be short this market.
____
the only excuse for attending a matinee is if one is drunk or if looking for a place to lay low from the local mob
in order to hold Fly in high regard, I’ll assume he was doing both while possibly throwing slices of hot pepperoni pizza at the screen
carry on
… Only at the blue banthas.
__________
Señor, care to speak on SD’s acquisition?
Hi Fly,
Just Curious, is it fun to ride a gay camel? Inquiring minds want to know, dough boy.
“Indeud”, as your people are known to say.
The dollar rallied all through the bull market of the 1990’s. And it fell all through the ghastly decade we’ve just lived through.
The idea that a falling dollar is always good for stocks and vice-versa is absurd. You can’t build lasting prosperity on a weak currency.
On an unrelated note:
JakeGint on gold, coffee and literature = surprisingly entertaining!
JakeGint on politics = a bit tedious.
As in life, you take the good with the bad… 😉
Btw — I agree with your thesis, but it only holds true if one is in the midst of a secular bull market, as we were in 1983-2000.
We are in the midst of bull cycle inside a larger secular bear that has not yet washed out (IMHO). Therefore, “rallies” are created by the falling dollar, much as they were in the 2003-2007 cylical bull.
If you believe we are at the front of a new secular bull, well… as the famous Christmas song about the ha’penny goes — Then God… bless…. you!
___________
We cannot be in a bull market, since a democrat is Prezident.
However, if Palin was sledding down the white house lawn…
Ah, yes more regret for voting in the inexperienced President via bizarro comparisons to the inexperienced Vice Presidential candidate who did not even get elected.
Luckily, your Vice Prez is only dumber than a bag of hammers, and NOT so inexperienced in being quite dumb.
Whew!
_____________
I guess you were probably playing stickball back when Bill Clinton was Prez, but draw up a chair son, and let me tell you a tale.
Bill Clinton started out almost as Left as the guy you just voted for in November of ’08 (remember what happened then?).
Luckily, he lost his (not near as liberal as this one) Congress in ’94, before he could do too much damage to the by then 11- year old secular bull market.
Consequently, with the knife of Newt “the Skinnydipper” Gingrinch pressed against his neck, he signed all kinds of illiberal shit, including a tax cut that sent the market “to the Moon, Alice.”
Unfortunatley, that whole bull cycle soon drew to a close thanks to Crazy Al Greenspan’s Plan to save America from the Millenium Bug via massive sold out printings of Benjamin Franklin portraits.
Then came a Republican President, right after the start of our secular bear market..
He was President for eight years (Republican, remember?) through almost three years of bear action and then four years of cyclical bull which was a result of — there it is again — more Benjamin press action.
Remember, cause this is important — that was a Republican President, with the same Fed Chair as Clinton, and then his clone afterwards.
Then the second bubble in seven years burst, this time in real estate. The only way to combat the effects of the “party is over” come late 2007 was… you guessed it, more Benjamin printing.
Still a Republican President, mind you!
_____________
But never mind all that. We’ve obviously solved all our problems. We’ve got a smart Democrat President who has adopted the “fix it quick” methodologies of Hoover and FDR from the 30’s, and a Greenspan clone in the Fed Chair.
What’s more, we’re going to nationalize one of our most vital industries still remaining on shore, and as a bonus, raise taxes on everybody with a half-working pulse.
Honey, everything’s coming up roses for me and my gal.
____________
What’s funny is that I think there’s still some life left in this cyclical bull, given a healthy pullback here in the next weeks.
Let’s just not chortle ourselves with tales of secular cycles of taurine passion. The play-dough only stretches so far down at the Fuzzy Pumper Barber Shoppe.
______________
As someone on Bloomberg commented this morning, Clinton and the other politician asshats had the “Bond Market Vigilantes” to keep their spending in check. With long term rates so low there is no fear in running up the tab. Higher long term rates would, err might strike a little fear and discipline in the big spenders. Either way, TBT goes higher.
Agreud.
No Ethel Merman tunes, for now.
____
Jake – keep fighting the good fight, my man.
You got half the story 100% correct. But your affliction (Bush Derangement Syndrome) has you painting the Bush debacle as something that was done TO Bush by a Clinton appointee …too fucking funny.
The presidency, Jake, does have power. Bush used that power, not to reign-in spending or to end the credit party, but rather to launch $trillion wars that failed to weaken our enemies and $trillion domestic spending giveaways (including the drug and insurance company-authored $trillion Medicare giveaway).
Oooh, sez Jakey, the all-powerful, commie Dems are victimizing the passive, neocon, Rovian Schutzhund. Too funny.
Civics 101, dummy.
Read your Constitution (probably for the first time) — check who controls the spending power. If it’s the Executive* I’ll give you a shiny penny.
(Note — not the one that starts “From each according to his abilities….”)
Next time, don’t make it so easy for me. I enjoy the longer drawn out, baby seal clubbings.
lol.
_____________
*(that would be the President to you, dummy)
_
Got it. The commie, jack-booted, dictator Obama is responsible for getting the congress to do his will, while the executive in the Cheney/Rove white house merely signed when ordered by congress.
Seal clubbing ….piff. Jakester, you’re a legend in your own mind only.
LOFL! Who sai anything about Obama, you poor sot?
Again, Little Baby Seal repair to your “Constitution for Dummies.”
The Congress is controlled by ?
YOUR DEMOCRATS
The Executive Branch is controlled by ?
That’s right little baby seal — YOUR DEMOCRATS!
The bills are created by ?
CONGRESS!
The bills are signed by ?
THE EXECUTIVE!
Tell me — are you drinking tonight little baby seal? Because I’m about to get a call from PETA, ovah heah.
___________
Come on Jake … Clinton had no choice but to move to the middle and do a little quid pro quo in order to accomplish something after his health care fiasco and with a republican controlled house & senate. Most applaud him for being realistic and knowing how to compromise and gain bipartisan support …. the country did well under him not to mention the stock market.
Bush on the other hand bragged about spending his “political capital” after all, he earned it with such an “overwhelming victory” right? He spent it alright … but go ahead and blame the democrats as though they were the keepers of the purse strings since Reagan came into office …. nice spin!
E8 — don’t be silly, it’s all about the Congress. Clinton was force to go to the middle, in order to become re-elected, it’s simple as that.
Did you miss the whole bit about the secular bull and the secular bear? It’s not all about politics, you know.
That was my point, btw…. I’m beginning to think the number one problem of you Dems is reading comp. I knew that was true of Purdy, but he’s emotionally and mentally arrested…..
_________
You forget that I came from CT …. a traditionally Republican state along with nearly all of New England sans my current state residence that includes Cape Cod as part of the Commonwealth though a good majority of the full time residents are Independents or Revolutionaries if you will ….. These days (post Clinton, maybe as a result of him) it seems that New England has succumbed to the Democrats in it’s entirety and says something about the state of the Republican Party.
You don’t really think an incoming President is swayed by the state of the economy (secular bear or bull) do you? Seems to me they have an agenda and have learned to go for as much of their ideology as they can while they have that “political capital” and legislative support, knowing all to well that that can change two years later and their dreams of leaving their mark could evaporate …. budget? Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!
“Remember, cause this is important — that was a Republican President, with the same Fed Chair as Clinton, and then his clone afterwards.”
Remember, Greenie was appointed by Reagan in 1987 and reappointed by Bush – Clinton – Bush … He was a GOP guy not Clinton’s crony!?!?
From your prodigy @ FBN in 2007 to refresh your memory:
GREENSPAN: Let me say this. My basic problem is with the Republican Congress. My problem with the president is that he did not use the veto sufficiently. It was not he who essentially created the agriculture policy or, I should say, the agricultural program or the highway bill. He would have — he was coming in much lower.
But, instead of vetoing a lot of that stuff, it came through.
CAVUTO: So you say he needs to start vetoing, right? So now he’s got — he’s got a big. Well, wait. He’s got a big transportation bill, right? It’s a $100 billion plus bill. Should he veto?
GREENSPAN: He’d better start vetoing certain stuff, because we are getting into the demographic issues wholly unprepared. We cannot afford to have procedures which lead us into the longer-term period.
Look, Neil, as far as I can see, what we really ought to be thinking of is how our accounts look on an accrual basis, like a regular corporation evaluates things. If you had an accrual basis of accounting, our fiscal situation would be awful.
In other words, we are on a cash accounting basis, so the big commitments we have made don’t show up as deficits for many, many years. But you shouldn’t do planning on a cash budget. Corporations stopped doing that 150 years ago.
CAVUTO: Well, one of the ideas espoused by, actually, a prominent team of all the major Democratic candidate running for president, is to address some of the issues you talk about by hiking taxes, or rescinding the tax cuts for the well-to-do, the top — the top wage earners.
Will that do it? In other words, if you raise taxes on the upper income that we’re on the path that Alan Greenspan wants?
GREENSPAN: Look, the Republican Congress didn’t do it. I said, basically, that they swapped policy for power and in the end, got neither.
The Democrats came in. They’re doing pretty much the same thing as Republicans are doing. I’m not saying that the Democrats — what I say in the book in effect…
CAVUTO: Hang on.
GREENSPAN: … that the Democrats didn’t win.
CAVUTO: But raising taxes on the upper end, will that go a long way toward addressing what you said?
GREENSPAN: It will not.
CAVUTO: OK, OK. I do — that I do want to pick up on.
CAVUTO: All right, wrapping up with Alan Greenspan, “The Age of Turbulence” is the book, number one on all best seller lists. And Dr. Greenspan, the one rap against this book, maybe — is that you created the pickle we’re in. You kept interest rates so low for so long, we got the housing bubble or froth or whatever you want to call it, how others held it (ph). Are you guilty?
GREENSPAN: No. No, I actually made a statement that we ought to be careful at that point (ph), about allowing interest rates to remain too low too long in the short end of the market because certain things can build up.
Actually, I was wrong. Nothing like that did happen. What did occur, however, was this extraordinary change which I point out is critical with the end of the Cold War and the extraordinary economic room behind the Iron Curtain which effectively told us that central planning didn’t work. And it was such a clear-cut victory for market capitalism that much of then Third World very quietly, with no fanfare, moved all of a sudden to markets, China, being the obvious big case.
The effect was, and China is the critical case here, a huge amount of foreign direct investment into China, which went from virtually …
CAVUTO: No, no doubt, but the end result was you must have seen what was happening in real estate and when you espoused hey, adjustable rate mortgages aren’t a bad idea, when fixed rates were already very low …
GREENSPAN: Look …
CAVUTO: …did you feel it?
GREENSPAN: Let me go finish my first part and I will go through (ph) this quickly. The second part is just terrible misreporting.
CAVUTO: You didn’t recommend adjustable rate mortgages?
GREENSPAN: Not in — no …
CAVUTO: …or say they weren’t a bad idea?
GREENSPAN: There are — very — good idea — let me do that first. A very good — I said in early 2004 that adjustable rate mortgages were conforming mortgages for lots of people who plan to live in their home for only a short few years, makes a good deal more sense than a fixed rate mortgage on the basis of the …
CAVUTO: OK.
GREENSPAN: …study by the Federal Reserve.
CAVUTO: All right, look, I know you want so much to mention the economist (ph) (INAUDIBLE), all of that. I want to touch on the relationship with the Bush family. Bush senior — I know you want — Bush Senior kind of feels that you were slow to cut rates and cost him re- election. And this president obviously feels that you’re kind of bad mouthing him out of office. Do you have a problem with the Bush family?
GREENSPAN: I certainly do not. I admire both the Senior Bush and the Junior Bush who I’ve gotten along with exceptionally well. My basic problem is my concern about the Republican Party in which I have been brought up. And this is not the fiscal policies of the Republican Party of Goldwater, which I so strongly supported.
CAVUTO: So, they abandoned you, you didn’t abandon them?
GREENSPAN: Well, I don’t want to say anybody abandoned anybody, I’m just basically saying that I think we’ve lost our way.
CAVUTO: But you like Bill Clinton?
GREENSPAN: I thought Bill Clinton was the best Republican president we’ve had in a while.
CAVUTO: You put him up there with Richard Nixon in terms of brilliance, right?
GREENSPAN: Both of them had all sorts of problems …
CAVUTO: OK, all righty.
GREENSPAN: …but, as far as IQ is concerned, both are terrific.
CAVUTO: All right, Alan Greenspan, “The Age of Turbulence.” It’ll get you talking, it’ll get you debating, it’ll even get you fighting.
Recap:
Nixon opens barrier to China – Reagan (Capitalism) defeats USSR (Socialism) via egregious military spending and the rest of the world gets on board the Capitalist Train – Bush I ousted after saying “read my lips, no new taxes” then raises taxes – Clinton knows Greenie is admired by The Street and reappoints him rather than his own man and after blowing opportunity to pass his own initiatives (wasted on health care bill) has to play the middle but ironically everyone wins including himself as he’s re-elected – Bush II ignores the economy despite the Sec of Treas quitting and continues on the path of least resistance in a downturn, spend, spend & spend this time tax cuts and big ag/road bills then uses the fear card after 911 for military/war budgets still ignoring the impending soc sec and medicare expenses looming in an effort the boost the economy and get re-elected unlike his dad who blamed Greenspan.
Losers = Russia (collapsed from cold war), U.S. (collapsed 20 yrs later from egregious military/war budgets not to mention tax cuts and little if any budget cuts or social program reforms/cuts) & The American Worker (could be the biggest loser as other nations got into our capitalist game and our domestic mfg jobs were exported to the new world order.
Winners = China/Brazil/India and eventually Africa as we need their cheap labor to keep our corporations profitable and our consumers consuming.
History (recent) proves the biggest spenders adding to the US debt have been the GOP … after all, how many years have they controlled the WH and the Congress over the last 40 yrs? The dems haven’t been in control in so long (other than the Clinton & Carter years – 12 yrs) that they haven’t had a chance for any real liberal/social net spending … it’s been a long time since CETA!
My guess is Obama is a student of history and knows well that he better get his most important issues passed asap at any expense and then deal with tax increases, budget cuts and program reforms in order to bring the deficits under control. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead once again!
“gay camel lounging on the beach” message
That is some good shite….thanks Senor
WTF??
Is this a joke, with the Naz busting out to new highs?
_____
If YAHOO! shut down for the weekend, would anybody notice?
Almost forgot… GO Giants!
Yahoo down for a week? That is the most absurd thing I have ever read. That is so unbelievably stupid, God should kill them on the spot.
That’s why I thought maybe it was a joke… how does a farging online resource go DARK for a week?
ARE THEY KIDDING ME??
_________
No no, their “offices” are closing. Their online presence shouldn’t be disrupted. That’d be suicidal.
Of course, if you’re having troubles with your Yahoo! Mail, you may not find any customer support…
keep buying the trend, it’s working for gold and gold miners.
What?
________
I find this celebration of the incarnation heart warming!
You mean “White” Christmas, cracker?
😉
_____
Lost me on that one.
I was referring to YHOO’s closing
It’s a celebration of their lack of cash flow, unfortunately.
I thought you were talking about Fly’s song choice… heh.
__________
Those YHOO fuckers shoulda sold out for $31 a share when they had the chance.
The Fly armed with the PPT is simply not canny.
The market and the dollar cannot defy gravity indefinitely, but longer than most could imagine. The PPT though is not fooled. The proof is in the figgie pudding.
song- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdkmhquF60o&feature=channel