The market is being stubborn. We all know it’s going to 10,500. However, it seems my enemies are moving against me, in unison, to keep the market under 10,500, in an effort to steal my victory. It’s only a matter of time, until I capture my win.
Regarding the markets:
This is a continuation of the last 8 months. Expect to see asset managers chase stocks into the New Year, sending the Dow well above 10,500. When you take a step back and look at the state of the U.S. economy, it really is sobering. Cities like Detroit and Cleveland are dying, Great Depression style, yet here I am waiting for stock market jubilation.
The truth of the matter is, as discussed with my new buddy Scott Bleier, the market is going up on liquidity, controlled by villains dressed in dark suits, posing as Car Czars.
With my money, emphatically, I like U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] , FBR , BigBand Networks, Inc. [[BBND]] and W.W. Grainger, Inc. [[GWW]] —amongst others. One thing is for certain, we are no longer in a “melt up” stage. Accurate stock picking abilities are very important at this juncture, as well as proper risk analysis. Despite today’s big jump, numerous stocks are weakening, as the day matures. In my estimation, it is not a good time to add to positions, so early in the day. With sideline cash, before buying, I’d prefer to wait until the end of the day, in order to assess relative strength. And, if we continue to weaken, I’d recommend holding said cash until we dip again, setting up for the ultimate Turkey run.
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ZOILA has this overwhelming urge to short stocks Tim Knight style.
Please kill me.
Thanks.
I have been looking to do the same, working against the turkey gods has kicked my teeth in.
I will send you a list of my current holdings. Short at will, you will be safe.
Damn those villains dressed in dark suits, posing as Car Czars, damn them I say.
BTW: The Fly’s new friend, Scott Bleier’s website is 99% password protected. I guess he read the same report that Rupert Murdoch did about “protecting” free information behind a wall.
that may change soon: hint
We’ll all be “creating coin” with Scott in no time.
That’s Hubert Keller’s egregious burger, although the high price is mostly because of the wine accompaniment. I had a foie gras topped burger with aged bleu cheese last week courtesy of the newest iron chef, Jose Garces and it was only like $30.
Still eying 1.505 on the EUR/USD, we are just about at the apex of the ascending triangle, an inflection point.
A foie gras burger prepared by “Jose”? Your arteries are now clogged, but Herr “Doktor” Fly can perform a simple procedure – $10k cost. Herr Fly is a respectable distinquished Wall St. money manager (not a trader – he trades a lot but it is only a coincidence) who only acts as a “Doktor” in his spare time.
My arteries are as efficient as those vacuum tubes that they use at banks. Perfect.
“Dee-R-dot-Fly made tha surgeon mask more famous than a surgeon can.”
Fly-Z
damn the turkey gods, working against me!
Damn those dark suit assholes
No bottom in sight for the dollar
Obama’s Economic Policies are Turning Into a Global Disaster
http://safehaven.com/article-15096.htm
Dollar down = dark suit foreigners bringing their currencies to our equity market.
I think it is probably being sold down merely to hold back your potty mouth.
What i really think is market makers got put stock. They gapped it up and sold off the stock. They will be done soon. Sell off line is too straight to not have market makers invovled.
Agreed
the Fed failed to strong-arm the banks when it was negotiating payouts on the A.I.G. contracts. Rather than forcing the banks to accept a steep discount, or “haircut,” the Fed gave the banks $27 billion in taxpayer cash and allowed them to keep an additional $35 billion in collateral already posted by A.I.G. That amounted to about $62 billion for the contracts, which the report describes as “far above their market value at the time.”
Mr. Geithner, who oversaw those negotiations, said in an interview on Friday that the terms of the A.I.G. deal were the best he could get for taxpayers. He considered bailing out A.I.G. to be “offensive,’ he said, but deemed it necessary because a collapse would have undermined the financial system
Oh yeah, really Tiny Tim, we know the real story you piece of shit. You had to take care of GS, the largest contributors to your socialist Boss.
right on……
At the moment, the clean talking, bible crowd, are winning.
“Crowd” is singular.
The egregious over-/misuse of commas is more concerning!
excellent commentary there Lord Fly of the High Country.
K-Cup technology to send Dow Over 10,500
Proof that the Fly is a bad influence on the Southern Gentleman, Mr. Woodshedder:
2 Verizon Workers Trapped in Manhole
Did they get indoor plumbing in VA? Imagine when literacy arrives.
“They say the workers were standing on a platform that gave way and may have fallen at least six feet down into the manhole. Rescuers have been able to get one of the workers out of the hole, but say the other worker has seriously injured their leg(s) making it difficult to get to them.”
“I saw a man dressed in Confederate military uniform kicking the verizon worker into said manhole, while mumbling something about ‘car people'” said one passer by.
Foul play has NOT been ruled out.
The markets tend to be in a good mood the week before holidays, since 1950, the S&P 500 is 40-19, up 67.85 of the time during the four day week (including Friday) of Thanksgiving for an average gain of 0.78%
On average, all of those gains come on the two days surrounding Thanksgiving, which are 51-8, up 86.44% for an average gain of 0.80%.
The week after Thanksgiving can be a bit of downer and the markets have a bearish tilt as well, 28-31, up only 47.46% of the time for an average loss of 0.24%
The Turkey trimmings really take their toll on the Monday after Thanksgiving, as it takes the big hit, 24-35, up only 40.68% of the time for an average one day loss of 0.38%.
The last five Monday’s after Thanksgiving have been down, including last year’s (2008) loss of 8.93%.
S&P 500 % Chg for Thanksgiving the Last 20 years:
I couldn’t distinguish a discernible difference in the data in up or down years.
It has been my observation that since these type trading strategies became well documented over the last couple of decades, they tend to be anticipated a day or two. Be careful.
guest post, holiday, seasonality, thanksgiving, weekend
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2 Responses to “Trading The Thanksgiving Holiday”
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1 wayne
Nov 20th, 2009 at 10:05 am
The first column is the Thanksgiving week (not weekend), good luck.
2 Babak
Nov 20th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
oops, thanks for catching that Wayne
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T Moe – Just curious, what would it take to get you bullish?
When T MOE finally turns bullish, you’ll know it’s time to start shorting! LOL.
No more government intervention, allowing firms to fail, a pull back of the curtains on the giant shell game.
Complete transparency from the Fed, and a firing of all the idiots on Capitol Hill
Basically those things will never happen without some kind of revolution. When thats happens I’ll Dance as the Palaces Burn
I do own some longs though.
Fly, bro!
Fo’sho’ I thought today was going to be the day you may swear again. It’s a shame. Better luck next year, and i meant that sincerely, deud!
shorting.da.noodles.was.easy.today.
weeklyr1and.intraday.r4
derpderp
so.obvious
I know it’s a massive generalisation, but surely there avery few possible catalysts to push the market higher over the next 12 months. So I expect a flatline. I’ll hold onto my cash and wait for an opportunity to present itself amongst my watchlist.
I may end up eating my words. Despite a slight correction over the past couple of days, the global markets have powered ahead…and my watchlist remains exactly that…watched.
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