For the record, the bears are still down 38% for the year. Nevertheless, Halloween is theirs. The often predicted, and sparsely followed, HALLOWEEN SURPRISE worked wonders for the bears today. All of yesterday’s gains: gone. All of the recent momentum: gone. People were clown raped today and it had nothing to do with Halloween, oddly enough.
My losses were exaggerated into the bell, due to rumors that the Devil himself was buying puts on the OEX.
Over the weekend, expect to hear a lot of worthless jargon, starting with the empty suits on Fast Money, save Guy “Eggplant” Adami and that skinny dude who likes foreign chicks.
Finally, the Overall Hybrid on The PPT closed in the low 2.20’s, effectively double dipping Wednesday’s lows. Taking a shot in the dark here, we trade down on Monday, then reverse based upon deeply oversold market conditions. However, it’s worth noting, the party is over.
It’s time to punch “Complacent Connie” in the face and think more defensively and/or entertain the notion that the current down leg may continue.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOXjzXl9cMM 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
FIG.
The Fly is God.
This was never anything but a Fed-fueled bear market rally, and it is now finished. The deflationary spiral continues.
nonsense.
Nonsense? What, exactly, do you imagine all those Fed-created acronyms were intended for? Let me tell you: to allow dumbasses to continue debt servicing and delay the inevitable liquidation of malinvestments. That, and some of the programs satisfy the requirements of a “money gift”, totally in line with Bernanke’s theories.
Fact is, the Fed is the cart, not the horse. Nothing is going to prevent the coming liquidation, which will be mind-numbing in both scope and breadth. Read any Taleb? He says 40-70 trillion in deleveraging, globally. Be sure to buy more EQIX!
Attn: All Fly syncophants, please learn to read. Thank you.
Agreed. Government intervention is the only the reason the GDP numbers ( fake news) were positive. The rally was FED fules through massive amounts of paper, the purchasing of treasuries( the shell game), the bullshit TALF, zero rates offered to the crooks at the banks and the purchase of mortgages by the Fed to keep rates down. All government intervention which will hurt even worse in the end.
3rd Floor, women’s lingerie….
Oh! Good morning Mr. Tyler…….going…. down…
eh, eh, eh…
$spx @ 1030 may give a reprieve..if not it s going to be dicey
OEW Daily Recap:
” Support for the SPX drops to 1018 and then 990, with resistance now at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum remained extremely oversold into the close. Wednesday and thursday, btw, was the 80th anniversary of the 1929 crash.
Yesterday’s strong rally ended within the range of the OEW 1061 pivot. Today the market reversed yesterday’s entire rally and made a new low for the decline at 1034. This represents a 67 point decline from the SPX 1101 high, the largest drop since the uptrend began in early July. The count we have been following from the SPX 1101 high continues to track the market: wave 1 SPX 1074, wave 2 SPX 1096, and wave 3 underway. Wave 3 has been subdividing as follows: wave 1 SPX 1075, wave 2 SPX 1092, wave 3 SPX 1042, wave 4 SPX 1067 and wave 5 currently reaching SPX 1034. At today’s low the short term charts are sufficiently oversold to end wave 3, and the hourly chart is displaying a slight positive divergence. The VIX, btw, is now in an uptrend.”
Think we go lower Monday morning completing wave3 and reverse quickly into wave4 for back up to the 1061 area, then complete this leg with wave5 down to the 1020 area.
Eggplant.
Hilarity.
Could they actually let the market tank before christmas season? Naaaah. That would have enormous reprecussions since the consumer is already dead in the water.
There are two things that can be tackled to empower the consumer. 1) bloat the value of the housing and 2)bloat the value of 401K’s.
Fed knows there’s not a whole lot they can do on the first one (mostly because they used all their powder to bail out cocksucker banker buddies) so they have focused on No. 2 by gunning the market up., Which means that the market sells off for a day or two and starts to rally to 10k again till year-end. The least they can do is maintain a flat market for the last two months, and they will.
2010 COULD be very bloody though as international community start screaming bloody murder about the value of the $ and the dissadvantage that this brings to their shores.
Life is good, enjoy!
I have met Guy Adami twice. Nicest guy in the world. His language would make The Fly blush.
There’s no real support on the S&P chart until just above the July lows. Hopefully, we will get there within the next three weeks so I can maximally enjoy my Thanksgiving.
you’re an idiot
I’m an “idiot” who is currently +95% YTD and has compounded 30%/year for the past five years… Stop by tomorrow and I’ll toss your broke ass a Snickers bar.
I have no idea who you are. Never heard of you or your picks. From my vantage point, you’re an idiot. Sad, but truthful.
In other news, O’Bama is creating jobs, while losing them. Brilliant spin.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_stimulus_jobs
I’m a big fan of your blog (the jokes, not the– for lack of a better word– “advice”). I’d be happy to provide the statements to substantiate the record, if you’d care to wager against it. Meanwhile, get yourself a nice costume; if you knock on enough doors tomorrow, at least you know you’ll be able to eat for a while (albeit, not in the most nutritionally optimal manner).
Oh sure, I’ll have my Administrative Assistant contact yours so you can “provide the statements to substantiate the record”.
Give us a break jackass.
Post some or even one of your trades, then you can brag all you want.
Gloatfucker
what an asshole … chill out its Friday!!!
Guys that are up 95% YTD don’t tend to use words like “hopefully” when talking about market moves.
Looks to me like you’re just outing yourself as a lair and a fraud.
Guys that are up 95% YTD don’t hang out on Fly’s site (no offense Fly), or they are playing with $5,000 and think it is real money.
I read The Fly for his jokes.
The account is low seven-figures.
I can produce the track record for the statements… Would you care to create a wager?
Ummm……no. You scare me.
I’ve only been here for 24 months, and there are posters making claims like yours every 10-12 weeks. They disappear as quickly as they pop up.
If you are for real, just prove it, don’t “make a wager”. Post it on gmail docs with the account info blanked out.
Only The Fly puts his real money on the line every day here. No one else is keeping score.
I have 60 monthly statements (going back to January 2005 for the five-year record), and there’s no way I’m going to scan them all in. I can post the 2009 record– that’s just 10 statements– pretty easily if you tell me how to do it on Google and we can come up with a decent wager. I’m not looking for “followers” and I’m not like Fly with 30 different stocks at once. I run a concentrated account (generally, my five or so “best ideas” which I frequently trade around, and if I only have two ideas I’ll hold a lot of cash). I’m currently 50% in SDS, 10% in SKF, and 20% in SNTS which is a small pharma company awaiting a patent lawsuit ruling which I think they will win. I plan to sell the SDS with the S&P in the low 900s, the SKF when the DJUSFN hits around 200, and the SNTS when the patent suit is resolved one way or another. I made very big money this year on MNKD (bought in the $2s and sold in the $8s) and DCTH (bought last year in the $1s and sold earlier this year in the $3s). I also had a number of smaller trades and positions which aren’t worth talking about. Again, I have Fly in my RSS feed because I think he’s hilarious, not for his stock picks (which I think he trades in way too short a timeframe for his fundamental reasons for owning them to work out).
Who the fuck are you again?
Step 1 : Get you’re own blog
Step 2 : Get out of the basement and take a shower
Step 3 : Post your statements or picks or whatever you wish there.
Who gives a rats ass what you have in your RSS feed, my God how do so many people think we give a fat fuck what they like or dislike. I’ve had a good week being short and you are killing my buzz man.
Honestly,
If you want us to believe 1/10 of what you are saying, post your trades real time as you do them or shut the fuck up.
No one gives a shit what money you made in what fantasy stock from a month ago or what you are planning to do. Trying to make a wager off your bullshit made up statements is pure dumbass.
Ok, Logicalthought, we’ll track you from here on out, just for shits. We’ll consider these your first picks, since you have zero history here. For obvious reasons, you are starting at up 0%. No one starts up 95%. Welcome.
The Fly is God.
Attaboy Zombie. You nailed that arrogant prick. “Cover in the low 900’s”
How many times I gotta tell people? You do not include the zeros after the decimal point when counting the number of figures your “portfolio” is.
fifd
Madoff provided statements too, but I’m sure your’s are legit, NOT!
T MOE – You stole my Madoff line. Hope you had a profitable day. I think I lost 2 arms and a leg today.
The bears at the slope are partying like no tomorrow. I don’t understand why people wouldn’t rather make money on both sides of the market but whatever.
Next week should define whether this trend change will last or not. I suspect we’re in for at least 10-15% here so I should be joining you with some long puts to offset my short puts soon enough.
What am I, an out liar?
I’m up 95%+ and hang here ….. and my acct is six figures …. go figure!
Yeah, it’s me again…the funny thing is, I’ve been reading this blog for about 18 months and never posted a comment until just these last couple of weeks…
The point is, I continue to find it interesting that so many people actually think the Fly is God. I wonder if even a third of the people who read this blog actually turn a profit in their own accounts. Seriously. Also, anytime anyone posts an alternative idea on here or even questions the Fly’s thinking, all of a sudden an army of Fly Fags, often including the Fly himself come marching out in an idiotic defense. Why and who really gives a fuck? Many of the posts on this site are funny and there is even some good “ideas” from time to time but it’s certainly not the only good idea out there.
And yes, people can still have successful ROI’s and actually have a different opinion than Fly. Imagine that. Are you guys so fucking retarded that you can’t even think for yourself, so you let Fly do all of your thinking? This is why you will never enjoy a high rate of return. Ever. Not even in your fake e-trade accounts or fucking wet dreams.
Further, Fly does not back up all of his trades so why are all you little penny stock mother fuckers making anyone else do it, let alone yourself? A bit hypocritical, no?
And Fly, most of us have no idea who the fuck you are either and while you name your picks you do so randomly and without specific entry/exit points, so again, you are asking of this dude more than what you’re doing yourself. And you are also wrong once in a while (especially of late), which isn’t the end of the world but when all your little fucking minions come crawling out from beneath your desk anytime someone questions you it starts to get old. Are you really that fucking insecure?
For all I know, Fly could be a fucking hot dog vendor on the corner of Wall Street blogging wall street chatter via his fancy blackberry. Show us your statements to prove otherwise Fly…I actually could care less since I trade my own ideas but I’m sure all of the “I can’t think for my fucking selfs” would love to see it so they could trade with more confidence. Perhaps you should add that to your PPT subscription.
Personally, I’m probably done with this site because all the lemmings who troll here are getting pathetic, to the point where I am now wasting my time actually commenting to this bull shit. I’m sure that once I post this they’ll all come out and tell me to get the fuck out too – I can hear them already since I’ve heard the song so many times before. Perhaps I will.
In the meantime, Fuck you.
Censored by Hollywood for don’t feed the trolls.
Howie
I stopped reading your drivel after the first thousand words of your essay. Quit being such a woman. No one cares about your concerns. For the record, I post all of my entry and exits—every single one of them. So either pay attention or quit lying.
Howie, if you’ve really been here 18 months, you wouldn’t be posting such nonsense.
The Fly is God.
Howie, check out the PPT. The big stud Zombie hasn’t actually rounded up the 20 bucks needed for entry. Zombie’s claim to fame is posting FIG first on every FLY post. (If Zombie is actually the FLY, please God have mercy on me).
For all of you out there tired of the complete bullshit comments FLY followers come up with just upgrade to the PPT for intelligent comments.
FLY, please add division to the spam protection. That will keep Zombie from being able to post.
I can’t believe they allow Madoff Internet access from prison!
the whole world thinks we continue lower on Monday..
Not to sound all tinfoily, but it seems to me that this thing really came off the rails (in terms of seeing 5-10% swings every day on smaller issues) around the time of the Galleon liquidation. My problem with that hypothesis is that they only had $3.7B under management, which shouldn’t be enough to do anything, even if the liquidation was forced.
Next up, we’ve got the bond auction and the dollar. And that’s not filling me with confidence. The dollar’s back to roughly where it was pre-apocalypse, and the S&P’s just barely filled the gap it made ~13 months ago.
All this talk of inflation reminds me of the talk shortly before last year’s debacle — the Fed will have to print money and devalue the currency, so commodities and inflation should skyrocket. As we all know, precisely the opposite happened; we got deflation instead of inflation.
The bearshitter blogs are all aglee over the GDP numbers, but if 1.66% of that 3.5% was from motor vehicle sales really was spawned out ofcash-for-clunkers (as the government’s own stats seem to suggest) then there’s not much left for a Q4 followthrough. The whole notion that the recession is over will have turned out to have been the equivalent of channel-stuffing on a gargantuan scale.
As for Christmas and consumer confidence, Joe and Jane Sixpack have given up on their 201(k)s. If you’re the Fed and you want to make them feel good for Christmas, you give ’em sub-$2.00-at-the-pump gasoline, not $1500/oz gold, and you reward ’em for selling those scary stock funds (because they’ve been trained to think “Eew, Wall Street is icky!”) and buying nice safe bond funds made of US Treasuries (and Bill “Pimpco” Gross gets his cut).
For what little it’s worth, I, too, said “fuck it” and held my longs into the close. Probably regret it next week, but so be it.
Don’t know about the rest of your post but the Galleon thang might not be all that tin-foily. Sure they had “only” $3.7B under management, but a key question is how much were they levered up? Don’t the vast majority of hedge funds lever up?
fifd
The devil’s retarded cousin, Bobby, was buying OEX puts.
He doesn’t look to retarded right now. I have been buying puts on the SPY for a while now, bought more yesterday. Do we trade lower on Monday, who knows, but with todays high volume on the sell side it could definitely build upon the selling pressure on Monday. The consumer is dead, dead, dead.
This will be a slide lower for three years. If you cant see them holding up the tape the last three days before today , you are blind. Untill the fed anounces more liquidity programs the market will fall..untill then get out.
I know their are a lot of perma bulls on this sight but look at real estate RES or CRE . That should answer any doubts . Neither a bull or a bear… just read what the market is telling you . Classic bear market is extreme down extreme up and a slow grind down …..I know we are in a bull market to some of you goofs…yeah right , cash for clunkers is leading us out . get real
OEW’s Long Term Market Perspective:
“Historically, Supercycle/Cycle bear markets in the US display the following characteristics:
1. they are three wave structures, an ABC
2. during the initial decline, wave A, the market loses about 50% of its value, or more
3. the B wave rally is usually mistaken for a new bull marke
4. they last anywhere between 23 months and 60 months. The current bear market started in Oct 2007, 24 months ago. During the initial decline, wave A, the SPX lost 58% of its value (1576-667). The current B wave rally (667-1101) is being lauded as a new bull market. Wave C of the three wave ABC bear market has yet to unfold.” [or has just started the first leg down]
“Technically, bear market rallies can unfold in a myriad of patterns. They are not always just simple three wave zigzags. A good example of this is the 1937-1942 bear market. In this example Primary A wiped out over 50% of market value in just twelve months. Then Primary wave B rallied for eight months, retracing 59% of the decline. What followed was a drop of 25% over the next five months, before nearly retesting those highs five months later. After that complex pattern the market headed lower and lower into a final low in 1942. We would have to assume that many turned bullish during that B wave rally, and some would have called it a bull market as well. We would have remained long term bearish. We are not suggesting that a complex B wave will unfold. We continue to expect a simple zigzag. Yet, with all the central bank monetary intervention, worldwide, the completion of this Cycle/Supercycle bear market could take longer than expected. If it doesn’t, mid-late 2010 would be our targeted date. If it does, we’re probably looking at a bear market low some time in 2012.”
I must say, CA had this move nailed with his analysis of the $RUT leading the way down. Props to that guy… talented crew here. Thanks to him I was a pussy this week and am flat.
peace
cost per job: 650,000 jobs saved from 150 billion = $230,000 per job. Great job, President!
350,000 jobs created from $189 billion = $540,000 per job. Some pretty rich people are getting to keep their job.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSqxVMbml_k&feature=sub
Could it happen again?
check out the last chart with the overlay of the transports and the Comp — Scarey, very
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=14811&pv=1
This guy is full of crap. There will be no 1987 type crash with the Fed printing money.
I doubt if the Dow drops below 9500. The last 3 days is COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADING.
If you think there will be a crash buy the SPY December 85 puts for 55 cents.
A thousand of them will cost you a lousy $55,000 and if we have a crash, they will go
from 55 cents to $25.00 and your stinkin’ $55 grand chump change will turn into $2.5 million.
“logicalthought” is God (as it were) !!!
.
…Devildog called to day to say new lows are on the way. Odd no?
some stocks ARE looking oversold right now though…
ESV
EXM
WFT
M
ETFC
RIMM ? (yikes)
to name a few… I guess we’ll see next week.. but Black Monday? I don’t think it’s gonna be that bad…
btw-
If trading credibility here is important to logicalthought, he/she could post trade entry and exits here for a month or so. No need to deal with statements. Even if logicalthought is paper trading, the posts will tell the tale.
Honestly, I didn’t come in here looking for “credibility”. I made a comment because– as a bear– I felt like responding to the Fly’s bitter, money-losing (but still funny) comment about “the bears”. When the money-losing (but still funny), changes-his-opinion-of-the-market-every-day (but still funny), uses-a-trading-technique-that’s-a-recipe-for-getting-whipsawed (but still funny) Fly called me an idiot, I simply stated a few facts about my own trading record to demonstrate (if you guys choose to believe it, and if not you can go fuck yourselves) that if I’m an idiot (trading-wise), The Fly must be downright cretinous. And now I shall bid adieu to the smart people on this board (such as Howie), the nice people on this board (you know who you are), and the money-losing, day-trading, fundamentally lazy jerk-offs on this board (which, based upon my brief experience here, seems to be most of you).
Logical can go stick it in the PeeGee. All of the regulars know our positions, either out here or in the PPT. If this was Galleon liquidation or funds locking in profits for their year, maybe Santa will come early. The character of the bounce will tell, as it did in March. Remember trendlines are meant to be violated, chart patterns are meant to sucker punch you, and mother market will do whatever the hell she pleases.
Fly certainly had the perfect quote from Julius Caesar today: Let there be slaughter everywhere. There certainly was.
Fly and the stupid bulls will soon be down to S&P 150.
rumors of a Flashback Civil War era post on ibankcoin are FALSE.
As you were.
What’s up with that?
holy god, the moron brigade is out tonight. you bears are going to make me unload my short positions rather quickly if you keep this shit up. y’all are ruining my fun. go get a sandpaper blowjob.
That video is so fucked up.
But fuck do you make a good point. You should see TIM strutting around with big dicked gains calling the US fucked forever. I’ve never seen that asshole so pumped up.
Haha, she also plays the meek receptionist in The Office, Erin.
Seriously, the only guy that makes any sense here is Howie and logical..
The rest of you pathetic bozos and clowns are mindless slaves hitting refresh every 5 minutes waiting for your God to put down his witty but sadly misinformed “investment opinions” and proclamations that you accept with awe and without any proof
all of the weird people are out of the woodworks.
Keep it up. You will only look that much more stupid later. Ask Devildog.
“The rest of you […] are […] waiting for your God to put down his witty […] opinions and proclamations that you accept with awe and without any proof.”
Way to state the obvious, boy. The Fly is God.
What is it with the perma bears. Fellas enough of the venom and the conspiracy theories. Seriously you dudes weird me out.
Look the market took a hit. It’s taken a hit at every major market level and it looks like hell. It may head lower, but I’d be a little wary if I were you.
I will repeat my previous statement 8500 before 10500
Well now that you saw the dark side, what about that Dow 10500 call son? Perhaps you should write a nice blog entry revisiting your mindset at that time and how getting too cocky resulted in a 6 week drawdown. Time to visit the head.