Let this be 1:25am warning to all of you homegamers: raise cash now, else get ready to feel the full brunt of Wall Street, just waking up from months of unchecked— cocaine infused— partying, hung the fuck over, just looking to sell shit, as if their brains were fried from bad tabs of acid.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,443 Blog Posts
And if you have cash? Average in a bit on fav names? Or stand down?
chill out. let it burn a hole.
Wow; loud alert there !
Stand the frick down! mothers and fathers I agree with a fly! I am some cash and some short SLB.
here we frikkin go!
Booyaa
OEW Weekend Summary:
Long Term:
“The general bear market scenario mapped out in the beginning of 2008 continues to unfold. Then, as now, we expected the bear market to unfold in three Primary waves. The first wave down, Primary A, would confirm the bear market. Then a strong counter-trend rally, Primary wave B, would give many hope that the worse was over. Finally another wave down, Primary wave C, would end the bear market. In Mar09 the SPX hit 667 ending Primary wave A. During this first wave down the SPX lost 58% of its value. The DOW, NDX and NAZ also lost similar amounts. A few days after the low we projected the Primary wave B counter-trend rally would likely retrace 50% of Primary wave A. A few weeks later we modified that projection to either a 50% rally or a 50% retracement. During the past five months the SPX Primary wave B has taken the form of a zigzag and has rallied 52%, for a 39% retracement. Our minimum projection has been reached. When Primary wave B does conclude we expect Primary wave C to either retest the SPX 667 low, or, make new lows in the 400 area. In these types of bear markets, Cycle and Supercycle, swings in percentage terms are usually more important than points. Since Primary wave A was a 58% decline, under the worse case scenario, Primary wave C may also be a 58% decline. As a result we remain very cautious on this market.”
Medium Term:
“Our Primary wave B projection called for a top between a 50% rally (SPX 1002) and a 50% retracement (SPX 1122). The high thus far is SPX 1018. Major wave C should have some fibonacci relationship to Major wave A (289 points). At SPX 1014 Major wave C = 0.50 A, and at SPX 1047 C = 0.62A. These two levels are right at the two OEW pivots of 1018 and 1041. The first pivot was hit over a week ago and the market stalled. The next pivot should mark the top of Primary wave B. Also, when we review the internal structure of Major wave A we find that it unfolded in a zigzag with the A and C waves nearly equal. When we mark the recent SPX 1018 high as Intermediate wave A, we observe that it traveled 149 points (1018-869). Therefore, after Intermediate wave B concludes Intermediate wave C should have a fibonacci relationship to wave A as well. This will give us a better idea of the potential Primary wave B high.”
Short Term:
“As noted above we marked the SPX 1018 high as the end of Intermediate wave A. We’re expecting this uptrend, from the SPX 869 low, to unfold in three Intermediate waves. Support for Intermediate wave B is at the 990 and 961 pivots. Should the SPX drop to the 961 pivot, a rally to the 1041 pivot for Intmediate wave C, would result in the fibonacci relationship of C = 0.50A. This would also set up some negative RSI divergences medium term, and extreme overbought conditions long term.”
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/?_c11_BlogPart_BlogPart=blogview&_c=BlogPart&partqs=amonth%3d8%26ayear%3d2009
Sorry, Fly
I respect your opinion but I think you’re wrong on this one. It looks like it’s going down again this evening, but I think it will be higher by the end of September.
Fly,
When is alpha coming back?
98% cash since last Monday. Fug it.
not so sure about the US market moving lower just yet, however china is getting the RAEP [sic] overnight
Haaaaaaaaahahahhaa…ok..you step in and buy premarket moron
“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market… Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
simple but timeless truths. ~”Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”.
which, wrongly applied, have wiped countless investors out over the years since this book was published.
Sell the dip! 8)
Bwhahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaa–wow couldnt stop laughing…where are all the perma bulltards chastising anyone with even a nuetral position….too fucking funny…unstoppable…china is dead too..FXP.SRS..FAZ resurrected its like Easter…!.
Sixty year old Hippies who are now Hedgies on Wall Street already programmed their Tradebots last Friday in celebration of Woodstock.
They are having a forty year flashback after listening to Jefferson Airplane.
Profits are evil again and Grace Slick is far out man.
the refaltion trade bullshit has deflated…thanks to the mirage that is China…empty buildings, uncompleted projects everywhere…my brother was there 2 weeks ago..its a goat fuck chinese takeout style.
Cash
And the US should give a shit about China because……?
J…ask your boys at GS…uh..only the fact that the whole reflation trade is based upon china consuming and buying everything…no topline growth anywhere…its all fudged numbers..including the treasury auctions bid to cover bullshit…just watch as it unfolds…we will rally..but we are going much lower ultimately…S&P 400 by 2010 sometime..
My boys at GS… What no gals? Lol.
Look, I only asked you to justify your comment about why China is suddenly of great concern to the US and all you’ve done is create a strawman entangled in conspiracy theories.
I’ll ask again, why is China suddenly the determining factor for what happens to the US stock market?
without time to write the complete answer due to my own time issues..china is a large part of the engine for future growth..my thesis is that it is vastly overstated and will not be nearly as strong as anticipated..I am long FXP in small size..but will add after this mini blowout ends.
You do realize that China was up 86% since its January lows and has given away 13% from those recent highs, which to me isn’t at all that surprising.
What kind of odds to you offer for 400 by December 2010.
i am acutely aware of the parabolic rise in the chinese fortune cookie mkt…400SP my guess is its even money…if economy improves..then no..but i dont see any real improvement..anywhere. And Obama is clueless.
Would you like to lay a bet on that? If so how much?
all crap…
Mustard Seeds
Green shoots
Bank Stress Test
Stimulus package
Job creation
Transparency of Govt.
Barney Frank-Nancy Pelosi
look I don’t know if the US market is headed down in a big way, I doubt it, but I don’t know. However I do know that the US market at the moment is beating to its own drum and the fall of the Chinese market may make a small term dent but it really hardly matters to the US.
China is overheating because of the reflation trade as the money supply has increased by about 25% in the past 4 months and it seems a lot of that money is going into stock and land speculation which isn’t healthy, however it’s also tough to call the end of the bull market there because of this large short term correction.
Having said that, I don’t see China as having any direct impact on US stock in any large way as the effect is the other way seeing the US has a large trade deficit with them.
I think it’s premature to call the end of the Chinese growth story by a long shot. That’s not to say stocks there cant’ correct big time.
Don’t forget that it took Japan a full decade to finally break to the downside in the 80’s culminating in the perma recession they’ve had since that time.
Fly,
Should we hold HBAN or sell?
Methinks if you need to ask, you are following too closely…
Actually, I’ve found in the past that if I have to ask I should have sold already
TC….is it Eliot Spitzer time on SMH?
Perhaps.
Q’s outperforming SPY,DIA in the pre-market.
I really can”t really tell from INTC,AMAT,TXN action in pre-market and will need to wait a minute or two at the open
It could be like the Monday about six weeks ago when the market rallies for about five minutes or so off the gap down and then the floor trap opens and takes the amateurs who bought the gap at the open, down.
In SMH 24.06.
INTC,TXN looking okay
China Bear ETF. Seriously, does anyone know of a good one?
FXP but you’re looking at about a 7% move premarket
Word on the street, short FXI or puts thereof, is the way to go…
nice little crash eh! …………good luck on the new lows…………looking to scale in on red chips and
ssec if we open big down in our am. FXP is hk, just so you know.
good luck on your open.
Bought some BAC and Ford down here. Wish me luck
Luck!
F has been good to me this summer. Waiting for 6.50 to reenter for third time.
i won’t believe in this ‘selloff’ until i see the volume numbers at the end of the day.
Good call. 100% cash… sitting until furthur notice.
you know what would really piss of the bears? if we rally here and the analysts on CNBC start talking decoupling… from china.
I don’t think Cash would take too kindly to that. BTW, where’s da_bears/Josh, and DD?
Yogi..yes..your right..that would perplex me…however as mentioned by a clueless poster above you..CNBC is meaningless…c’mon WTF…CNBC…hahahahahhaaaaa- look at down volume..or listen to Bob Piss-on-Me..??..
That would be funny… A reverse decoupling would send the cubs hogwild. Good number out of the NY Fed today, the empire index was monstrously up and although the BAC credit card default rate rose it rose by .1%
Here’s the thing about decoupling. If the US slows down china catches AIDS. If China slow down the US gets a tickle in the throat that last 12 hours.
AEZS…getting goat fucked…wow
Having already raised dick loads of cash last week I’m starting to pick. I took RTK to 10% position
and I’m nibbling on JSDA some more!
Lets get to the important questions…..like does JakeG forgive Rick “The Dick” Pitino ?
bidding lots of 10,000 JSDA @ .78
What no RTK in the PPT!!! Is that cause it’s AMEX? Fly do you have something against that exchange?
IBM chart looks great….if you own puts…!!!!!!!!!
Bought a sprinkling of Fly’s old fav : GLW. I gave myself room to by another 1/3 at 14.60ish and 13 60 ish if it goes there or I’ll buy more at 16.30
I’m waiting for a pull back to $14.80 to reenter
The Fly is God.
zomb welcome back. I’ve missed your insightful postings of late.
Sweet and so overdue…very commodity specific
Beware of the last hour move though
dip buyers will be deballed today..
I’m still sightly up, Cash but thanks for your kind words.
HBAN getting mushroomed
The real test wiil be if or when the ADB’s show up.
I raised $300,000 cash on Friday and gave it up over the weekend in short order. Fcking nags! 🙁
BAC has traded 30% odd of its market cap today. That’s freaking huge.
Warning to cubs….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6041241/Rat-eating-plant-discovered-in-Philippines.html
they could find one that eats bears.