There isn’t much more to say. The bears are being rotisserie cooked on a daily basis. The more people bet against the market, the higher she goes. Hence, that is why I will not short this market, no matter what. I much rather “cash-up,” than get my lips punched loose my a Goldman tradebot.
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“Hence, that is why I will not short this market, no matter what”
why oh why Mr. Fly do you taunt the Market Gods so? That statement is as bad as ” Read my lips…no new taxes”
FIG
new comic: http://bit.ly/oklSh
I’m thinking about going short, but haven’t been able to pull the trigger on anything since I got blown out of a FAS trade several months ago.
I’ve been watching this site, and have decided the picks are mainly legit, and much better than Cramerica and other guys. It has been crazy to watch this market continually go up, while I didn’t trust jumping back in.
The reality is that I lost a lot of money and am not in a position to lose money, with no job and no other real sources of income.
Turn off the computer and look for employment.
Dollar cost average into some no load (Vanguard) growth (depending on your age) mutual funds either into your IRA or 401K once you get a job.
Evaluate your fund performance every 3-4 months and if the market tanks be sure to keep dollar cost averaging and maybe add something extra.
As you get to 40-45 start adjusting the type of funds you are investing into and the respective percentages into same.
Now hit the streets, network, do whatever and get a job.
And stay away from individual stocks, especially crap like FAZ,SRS,FAS, etc. They are for daytrading only.
This is some rock solid advice. Being an individual day trader for a living (particularly on margin) can be like a horse jockey stepping onto a football field. The computer programs working against you aren’t kind. I only use a small percentage for trading fun, the bulk is Mutual Funds, cash, and bonds or sector buys in stable areas. If I get angelo’d on my mad money, it’s only a small percentage of the pie. When the markets take their serious dips and crashes, you sacrifice and go in heavily. When it starts getting higher, you can take some off the table into more secure areas.
The best market strategy is to move between 25% and 75% invested. Buy an oversold stock, let it run up 5% to 10%, then sell an at-the-money nearest month calls.
If it moves up, let them call you. Don’t buy back an option unless it is 25 cents or less and you can sell next month’s for $1 or more.
When the market is dramatically oversold (600 or more NYSE new lows), go 75% in. As it moves to overbought (it is on its way there now – it will become overbought when there are 600+ NYSE new highs) gradually move out.
Chasing low-priced stocks is simply gambling.
Sorry to hear you got hammered in FAS.
Caddy speaks truth. You need to focus on your employment.
The ETFs are a slaughter house of souls and stolen eyes. Stay away from them. Sure, some people made a killing in FAZ or whatever, but it had more to do with luck than smarts.
Once you have employment and a steady investing routine, as TC suggests, then play individual names (hell even some ETFs if that’s what you want to do). I’ve learned that trading is not just the right “pick” its the right thesis, the right ticker, the right timing, the right position sizing, the right cash position, the right hedging, the right fortitude, the right market environment, the right flexibility, the right information, the right feel… trading is hard work. Hardest work evah. It will test your mettle.
Unrelated: is the spam math getting harder? I don’t mind, but the questions used to be 3+1=5. This was my question:
Q = 3a + 5ac for a
I almost forgot to factor out the a.
Dude, FAZ Htr, maybe you should take another look at Fly’s earlier post:
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2009/08/13/you-have-an-eternity-to-be-stupid/
Maybe take his advice…?
Fazhater….buy some WAG JNJ BA and forget about stocks for 5 years.
Indeud. BTW, are those KC ribs in your gravatar? Yummy.
Starting to cash out my holdings and bot FAZ today. First time in months.
Insiders selling 13 shares for every 1 they buy.
Insider selling plus secondaries — there’ll be plenty of shares available at these prices. Today was a real — ‘ you gotta be fucking crazy’ day. Sure it was a nice rally but very few new highs.
Time to grow a pair and prepare for the drop.
Picking tops is as dumb as picking bottoms.
No point in trying to be smarter than the market. I’d rather make money than be the tough guy with the steel balls.
Selling some is not a bad idea, buying FAZ or shorting is.
Another stupid retard thinks they are smarter than me.
A thought for some who want to be short but hedged…calendar spreads. I’ve started looking at December and January puts and selling the August/September/October against them. There is no question there’s a correction coming in this market…the only question is when. With the calendar, done properly, you can offset the loss of a rise in the short-term, then make a few when the downside comes back. It’s not a long-term strategy, per se, but it’s a good way to play the short side…so long as the market corrects before the end of the year.
Fly, get yo ass back in ALU baby. You should have never sold out in the first place. I added to my position yesterday.
Love the Howard Lindzon pic on the front page but I would have chosen ‘neuter’ rather than ‘neutralize’.
To each their own I guess
It’s August – in 3 weeks, action will pick up and …….maybe sell off How about Prechter’s prediction for $4 to $10 oil? If I owned a well and it cost #30 to produce a barrel, I believe that I would shut it down if oil went below $30. He may be right about oil going down, but $10 will not happen because few wells cost below $10.
The last person that bet against me is now homeless and halfway dead, living the streets of Texas, with nothing more than a box of devildogs to his name.
hahahhaha. Where is he? Has anyone checked missing persons?
New to the site. What’s el mosca got against HL?
Nothing. They are friends.
I guess the rally has finally put the DevilDog to sleep. I got out of a lot of my shorts in late April and was just about 90 -95% cash in May, June and July. Even though I believe the market is very overbought the bitch continues to spit in my eye and go higher. I will say that I bought a some October 95 puts on the SPY today at the close. I expect to be in the money on those in the next month or so. Also after getting stopped out on my short TOL position I decided to give it another shot. I shorted the bitch. believing that the big pop it got was nothing more that a short squeeze. I will keep a sharp eye on it and if it goes against me too hard I will get out.
Same shit with WYNN. I had to cover that bitch too, but I will be jumping back on her short very soon.
The musical GS robot chairs will end
Soon.
AIB, one of the regional banks with a large short position is squeezing up this morning. I’m not going short yet.
AIB is Irish… As in Ireland.
Buyer back in AMD — stock is headed to 4+ short term.
Call Postions
50 Aug 4’s
350 Sept 4’s
300 Sept 5’s
Giddyup
Dear Mr. Fly–
I am a new reader to your site and I find your insight entertaining, yet educational as well. If I may inquire, I’d like to learn a little bit about your background, experience(s) and how it led you to where you are now? Myself, I am a wealth management professional who was recently laid-off. As I look for employment, I’m reading up on the trading profession, which as I understand it, I come from a very different discipline (i.e. asset allocation, diversification, and the like) versus what professional traders like yourself do on a daily/weekly/monthly basis. For someone new to this discipline, I was wondering what guidance you might be able to provide so that I may better educate myself (i.e. books, sites, etc.) on your discipline?
Kind regards
TheFatKid
Things are not goign well for Le Fly this morning.
Tim who has lost most of his capital (i reckon) says:
I will say, however, that I am able to deal with drawdowns with barely a blip of emotions since:
He can’t draw down any further so he’ll have to deal with them.
1. I am dealing strictly with risk capital (there is a firewall between my trading and my “living”;
Perhaps, however if you’ve lost most of his “risk’ capital where the hell is the top up going to come from? God?
2. My trades are based on logic, not emotion;
Yep, sure are. That’s why the market is up 50% this year and he’s been short all the way up. That’s logic all right. Lol. No emotion there.
3. Profits delayed are not profits denied.
He doesn’t have “delayed” profits. He has losses.
I have come back from far worse than this!
True. Christ rose from the dead too.
I have every expectation that 2009 will be a terrific year for me.
Yep. Let’s see, we’re coming up to the 9th month. I’ve seen hail Mary passes before too.
j – Nice synopsis and commentary.
He’s a marketing guy trying to pass himself off as a bunch of things he’s not so he can keep people subscribing to his product. If he spent half the time studying the market that he does trying to convince everybody that he isn’t stupid (which he is more often than not), we’d get more than the fecal matter he passes off as analysis. The best is him trying to market his hedge fund to a readership of 20-somethings with $50,000 accounts.
LMAO! Nice!
today could turn ugly for the Uber Bulls…who arent hedged, and concentrated in shit stocks
The real test is will the bears be able to hold their gains AND take it down further. If the “A-hole Dip Buyers” move in there could be a lot of fireworks. Up. Crowd psychology is a funny thing. I think there may be more fear of missing out on a rally than fear of a loss for a lot of people. Time will tell.
Can someone please explain something to me?
As someone of Italian background (parents) i know a little about the place and the people. Why the fuck would Boeing contract anything to fricking Italians let alone the fuselage? Seriously are the Boeing management crazy? There isn’t a thing those fuckers wouldn’t screw up. If I had known Italians were involved in the subbing I would never ever have touched this fucking stock.
j-
They thought the Boeing fuselages were for extra virgin olive oil, not jet fuel. That’s-a not-a good.
Anyways bought a little more Boeing down here. Perhaps this is a good lesson to them.
Bought – JSDA
That’s right I’m calling a bottom in JSDA!
Sweet…
IPSU ? Sweetness over? Tell us Henry.
Yeah Fuck the gov numbers listen to the sugar companies. IPSU will fill gap. Back down and JSDA will rally of sub dollar levels.
Yummy soda is a cheap thrill that makes you feel like an important person who cares what shit tastes like! STILL SPENDING THERE. I see it.
IPSU slip soon under 15.
JSDA over $1 soon cause it’s yummy.
3 day compressed spring under .85 in JSDA.
I smell a Friday ripper if JSDA gets a bit a volume!
RTK in big
RTK huge @ 1.50
I’m like some kind of degenerate gambler!!
Henry:
Please don’t do a Devil dog on us and go over the cliff.
I’m 60% cash
Tried catching a bounce, but got out of FTK! giving up on it.
FTK! FTK is walking death!
Thinking of legging into WRES here…
Unstoppable – may have marked short term peak….alittle too confident
Ayer capt’n! Wee’re goin doo’wn!
Cool: http://cgi.ebay.com/New-3M-MPRO110-LED-Micro-Professional-Projector-720p_W0QQitemZ320411547784QQcategoryZ25321QQcmdZViewItem
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzpbZ6tHWR8
RTK cant wait another Friday ripper!