Once again, I was wrong for not paring down longs and initiating shorts. There are a lot of cross currents in the market that is tricking me into “deer in headlight” inaction.
First, we have people like Guy Adami getting all bearish and shit, a very ominous sign for the sellers. Then, we have persistent downside action in the dollar, while oil/gas goes up. Simultaneously, commodity related names are having their clocks cleaned, based upon fears of a looming market correction.
Recent market leaders, banks, CRE, tech and commodity stocks, were exceptionally weak today, which contributed to the late day reversal in the indices. The risk to money managers, who missed out on the recent run, is NOT buying this dip, then watching the market firecracker their faces off.
It’s a fight for market dominance, where many people will get tricked into bankrupting themselves into a Halfway House. Despite my bullish leanings, my patience is wearing thin. I don’t have time to fuck around, waiting for the bulls to take what’s theirs. I will be assessing my positions tonight, and plan for adverse market behavior over the near term.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
GIG.
FYI
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm
I got dime bags of cush for sale, mon.
Smoke a little and relax.
Listen to some Bob Marley, roll a gorilla finger, and melt into your leather chair.
sing with me ……”These songs of freedom, is all….”
CIG.
Anyone else see the outright crookery that took place today around 1:30?
http://tinyurl.com/kqpujz
You are not alone Fly..I picked up 4stocks today legging in. I sat, unsure even when support levls were hit and bounced..figured they would reverse..missed easy money .Tough read..Bought CNO, MMR, OLN, FRPT..tomorrow may tell a bit more. GOOD LUCK ALL
Fly,
CA and Alpha have both declared positions of 100% cash.
Its not bearish to take a sabatical.
Personally, since s&P 950, I’m sitting out waiting for a definite correction.
Since this could take some time, holiday season!!!!!
I would say that is game over for small shit (caps) stocks, time to focus on real companies. Lottery ticket time is over.
Why listen to some guy named Adami. Shipping index Baltic Dry says it all.
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/MarketsAndSectors/Sectors/article/20090617/49698106-5a72-11de-b342-0015171400aa/Baltic-drying-out.jsp
What’s this all about? Even a Flounder picks a side and sticks with it.
Fly, I resonate with the nervousness. However, the weirdest action happened with $VIX today. Thats the only “fly” in the ointment in the bearish theory in my books.
Fly, you’re a typical, run-of-the-mill, ignorant, “V” recovery cow. That’s why you can’t get things right. The party is OVER. Stop snorting coke and get your head out of your ass. I told you the laws of nature will triumph over a corrupt America this time. DEPRESSION, DEATH TO THE ELITE CROOKS AND DESTRUCTION ARE AHEAD. We’re just starting the REVOLUTION. S&P 150. Then we rebuild AMERICA without scumball private central bankers, parasitic wall street assholes, corrupt politicians and stupid cows and sheep.
BREAKING NEWS !!!
Green Shoots appear in White House Garden…signs recession is now over
– Al Jizzeera, MSNBC…’news'<—ha ha ha…”news”!!….
I kill me
ahem..
Stop staring at the U.S. dollar
The Euro tells more and the pound is a safer long shot
Christ on a corncob, I dodged a bullet by selling GWR before its offering at $24.50 expected a dilutive offering from E*Tard, and got lucky that ARNA did it with warrants instead of new stock, but now IMGN offers shares and dilutes by 10%.
And that’s only in the stuff I’m holding or have held recently. Is anybody out there not issuing stock?
The good news is the market’s able to digest some of these offerings; the bad news is that the companies view the offerings as neccesary and their stocks as “expensive enough” to make it an attractive means of financing. Bloody frustrating from the point of view of a shareholder, though.
Good Lord, Devil Dog. Keep ranting like that and people will think you’re crazy.
Without the histrionics, can you map out S&P 150? Weren’t you looking for this by September?
And no fair saying you’re withholding your explanation because you don’t want to help the cows or the sheeple or the weebles or whatever. You don’t post here just to be a rotten tomato magnet.
Break it down for us.
Thanks in advance.
I just think DD may have received a mortgage reset to go off on our upstanding bankers and politicians.
Total silliness but JUST IN CASE Kim Jong Il decides to slingshot empty peanut shells as our F-22’s violate their sacred airspace, these are the 20 largest companies in South Korea.
Keeping this list ready for some shorts:
Samsung Group, Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., SK Group, LG Group, Daewoo Group, Hyundai Corp., Hyundai Motors Co, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, Samsung Corporation, KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corp), Kookmin Bank, KT Corporation, POSCO (Pohang Iron & Steel Co.), Samsung Life Insurance Co., Ltd., Kia Motors, Hynix Semiconductor Inc, Shinhan Financial Group, Ssang Yong, Korea Exchange Bank,
Fly is floating asea aimlessly, becalmed, and unable to read the tide. Garbage and rotting fish float along side of him. On top of all that he is getting anxious for some action. Hey Fly, lever up buddy, if you don’t get your fix of 5% per day volatility you aren’t any fun to be around.
This SocGen strategist says new lows in equities coming later this year.
http://www.sgresearch.socgen.com/publication/3B80F893E8206F3AC12575D8002BA9B7.pdf.html
retox- I would probably just get into gold and short emerging markets etfs as those shares probably wouldn’t be available at that time for shorting (GS would already be short these shares as Kim Jong il will give GS advance notice).
Besides Obama would never allow it to happen. He dislikes dictators,
Chuckle.
Well, DD’s gotten a couple of things right since he’s been posting here, so I just want to hear how he envisions The End of Days happening. Sans emotion, as there will be plenty of time for that beyond Thunderdome.
BTW, I was back in FL last week. Flew into Orlando and drove to the East Coast to my Mom’s. They’ve made that Beeline, or whatever they call it now, Autobahn fast.
Saw far fewer “for sale” signs on houses than even a year ago. Totally anecdotal, I realize. Sadly, did not get out on the golf course once the whole time, tho did hit the beach for an hour or so between chores. Great time of year to be in the Sunshine State.
Fly, by disagreeing with Guy Adami, you are agreeing with his brown naugahyde brother, Joe Terranova. That can’t sit well with you. I mean, sure, a broken clock is right twice a day, but come on…..Terranova????
TraderCaddy,
GS would have advance notice – now that’s funny! As in, reality is funny.
Would prob have to play it with options (individual stocks and the ETF).
South Korea index fund EWY – adding to the list.
Don’t expect to have to use this but it’s always nice to have a plan, just in case shit…
EWY top holdings:
Samsung Electronics 16.31%
POSCO 6.88%
KB Financial Grp 3.54%
Shinhan Financial Grp 3.20%
LG Electronics 2.98%
S Korea currency pegged to USD
I’m not sure who this was or what company they were with but, I distinctly remember some analyst in early 2008 putting out a note about a market crash occurring in late 2008. They were dead on. I wonder what that persons analysis is now.
Didnt I tell you to shut the fuck up?
Your track record is pathetic, you have no right to rant about anything. Please go fuck yourself 3x you lunatic.
Short post update: These Fibs Don’t Lie
I think tomorrow will be “large” for the PM’s.
Also vote on TCK if you want it for the JCHP.
_____________
That’s why I don’t watch business television…Pay attention to tv, and you’ll be at the wrong end of the stick 9 out of 10 times…everyone’s got an angle they’re pitching and it clouds my own analyses…
Anton,
In defense of DD, I recall at least one or two posts where he stated his calls for S&P 150 were for a “final” low, a few years down the road. (Maybe somewhere in the early 20-teens?) Not sure if he also posted for 150 by september.
Fwiw fly. Guy has been spot on Mkt for a while. He has hot hand. Rode all the way up n became pullback cautious before others. May be brown, but a douche bag joe he is not.
I’m your jiminy cricket if you havent figured it out yet you silly goose
take a break and churn a bit..we are playing frisbee 900-950
it makes no sense atall
Sleepy,
Thanks. Thought Armageddon had been scheduled for this year.
And I’m not trying to call the guy out, truly. Just want to understand what he’s saying. People get so wound up in making this stuff personal it just clouds the site’s whole goddam raison d’être.
I, for one, am certainly above such petty behaviour. (sic)
{Snorts a pinch of snuff, dabs at nose with a kerchief concealed in the sleeve of his waistcoat, then sips at tea cup with extended pinky, eyes fixed on some point far off on the horizon.}
the dollar rulez baby
Hey Fly! It looks like your anonymity may be in jeopardy:
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/the_web/article6509677.ece
“Thousands of bloggers who operate behind the cloak of anonymity have no right to keep their identities secret, the High Court ruled yesterday. ”
But, not to worry, it is in the UK. It’ll be awhile before the O man forces it here.
Anton –
DD is just being his normal random self.
He refuses to acknowledge the reality that is this: those “banksters” and “elites” he so wishes to reform the United States without were fundamental in it’s creation.
And only some right wing delusional libertarian dreamer would foist the nightmare of a totally unmanaged economy on the peoples of the US.
He’s just gone off his meds and playing his “Rambo vs Wall Street” movie again.
Life is a Journey, Enjoy the Ride!
Cuervos,
I can’t help thinking that there is at least a grain of truth in the “we’re going to hell” forecasts. If unemployment gets high enough, long enough, it’s “Ich bin ein Detroiters” and most anything can happen.
I remember hearing a psychiatrist — or maybe it was Oliver Sachs — say that the temptation is always to write off what a mentally disturbed person says as the ravings of an unsound mind.
But in certain situations, say in the event of fire, you would do well to seek out a high-functioning paranoid person. Because he spends all his time obsessing over where the exits are.
I’m not saying DD is crazy, just that he’s obviously spent plenty of time imagining the world on fire.
Fly,
I think next 2 weeks will be slow with nothing really happening in the markets. I do not see us going lower then 8,250 on the DJI. I think 4th of July week will be a week of the bulls. The next 2 weeks will be boring. Might as well take a vacation. I am not setting any stop orders because the bulls will be back shortly. Stay patient. Like you say, sometimes the best thing to do is let it ride.
Anton,
I’ve made the same request from time to time (and not just to DD). The reason I come to this godly site is for coin banking insights. If someone gives me a rationaliztion for a position that I hadn’t considered, it just might make me some money or keep me from losing some. The rest is entertaining until it devolves into thread-killing shouting matches, which causes me to skim past what might be a good idea.
So I’m right there with you, all the way up to “waistcoat”. That’s just a “Fashion Don’t”. Right up there with white robes.
Not everyone can carry off the waistcoat, Sleepy.
The Fly Bottom:
We’ve just completed the minor wave1 down and are due for a rally back to 928-935 … s/b time to get out of longs and get short yet… patience is a virtue.
From OEW:
“If we count the SPX 956 high as the end of the uptrend. Then the decline from that level can be counted as a five wave Minor wave 1: 936-946-920-928-904. From today’s oversold levels we would now get a rally, Minor wave 2, back to the previous 4th wave (928), or even challenge the 935 OEW pivot. This should generate an overbought short term momentum reading before the market turns over and enters a declining Minor wave 3. The 935 OEW pivot should act as significant resistance during this rally. Should the market break through this resistance then some other wave count is at work. Should the market break below SPX 904 before rallying above 920, then Minor wave 1 would be extending.”
Anton –
Seriously does this sound like DD to you?
But in certain situations, say in the event of fire, you would do well to seek out a high-functioning paranoid person.
He’s like the Trashcan Man of the market. He just wants to watch it go to pieces.
Nice The Stand reference.
__
What can I say. I’m re-reading again and everytime he goes into one of his rants I keep having a mental image of DD the way that Matt Frewer portrayed him when he made it into Vegas.
For Woodshedder-
Man v. Food on the Travel Channel.
Nice looking chicken and cheddar biscuits in NC.
Pulled pork coming up.
For Jake-
Bought some GDX, NG just before the close today as I saw some strange positive action in gold the last twenty minutes or so.
Swing trade only. Wait and see.
I still feel the GLD etf has been siphoning investors $$ over the years that would have gone into the miners.
the banks will soon own everything.
Cuervos,
In the past, Mr. Dog has responded positively to positive behavior reinforcement, like a Devil Dog with a thorn in his paw.
There are posters here I just skip over now, no matter what they’re posting about. If they have nothing interesting, funny or productive after a few posts and just spew bile, I tune them out.
Would hate to think of DD that way. He’s made a couple of good calls and represents an extreme pov that I never want to totally dismiss, especially in good times, as all glory truly is fleeting, as the last few years has proven.
If you get a chance to see Mr. King at a book signing or talk, go. He’s funny as hell. No pun intended.
I went hunting down a commencement speech by Stephen King back in 2001 at the University of Maine, Orono which was on the cspan.org website Anton.
But, has been removed offline. Can’t find it anywhere but, if you get a chance it’s worth the twenty minutes or so.
I’m nibbling at Duma Key as well as I’m enjoying it so well I don’t want to gulp it down like I do most of his books. It’s been a long standing tradition for family members to buy me his latest on Christmas.
Somebody gave me an autographed copy of his book “On Writing,” trying to tell me something, no doubt. If you’re interested in the subject, you’ll like the book. It’s my favorite of his.
Cuervos- I have been to the Univ. Maine-Orono. Picked up a sweatshirt. Flew into the Bangor airport and drove to Bar Harbor.
Very nice. Good lobster but the water was too cold for this Florida boy.
Anton
Why are you asking the dog anything? The human furball is basically done. All he has as “analysis” is “the coming revolution’ and nothing else.
Like a typical coward he blames everyone else why he isn’t posting ignoring the fact that people laugh at him because he makes stupid predictions.
The only thing he knows to do is to sling shit at everyone whp doesn’t listen to him. And he’s fucked anyway.
Anton,
I’ve read that one several times. Right before I participated in NanoWriMo 2006 actually and I think it helped me stay motivated to finish.
Though, the problem with NaNoWriMo is that a 50k novel is really a novella and no one buys those anymore.
Anton, take a look at the 200 year trendline and factor in the laws of physics and nature. Result S&P 150.
DD was interesting because he shows you the market through the eyes of a bear-shitter. Some could use his point of view from time to time, but I digress Josh1ng2u was way fucking worse.
Everyone will be right eventually, if only for a fleeting instant.
The picture of the mighty Bull of Wall Street never actually fell of the Fly’s office wall….
Devil Dog is holding fly at knife-point and is forcing him to predict the market goes lower for buying DD’s Viper from a bank auction. CNBC read fly’s post, rinsed, and repeated it, and that is why our whole country is short.
DD how could you think humans and our markets can’t defy nature!?!?!
Humans(and our economies) have created planes, submarines, the internet, astronauts, clones, etc. and no other part of nature has done that so far.
kush, when we humans conquer hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, volcanoes, wild fires, earthquakes, tsunamis, cancer and murdering each other then you can lecture me about how great the human race is compared to the forces of nature.
Devil Dog,
That answer is somewhat short of the precision I had hoped for considering the implications of your conclusions.
__________
Cuervos,
Well, good for you in sticking it out and finishing the book. Not sure that novellas will stay out of favor forever, unless people continue to become stupid at the current trajectory and forget how to read entirely. The Kindle and such may help make novellas popular again.
When I saw King speak, someone asked him where he thought the best new writers were coming from. Kind of blew me away that he mentioned Fantasy and Science Fiction, which I haven’t even seen since I was a kid and Isaac Asimov wrote a great column, usually about the history of some seminal scientific discovery. They used to publish novellas, tho a publishing house will want you to turn it into one chunk of an epic.
__________
J,
Because some of his dire predictions have come true.
Also, this place is more financially productive for everybody when people explain their pov, ask questions and take issue with the issues, rather than hurl shit at one another like some insane asylum with dubious food service.
Speaking of which, why don’t you make yourself useful and start posting a regular bit about currency trading in the PG? Or in the Forum section of the PPT, where the high-class clientele hang out? You’re obviously looking for something to do down there and nobody is covering the subject here.
Fly doesn’t pay anything, of course, but that’s pretty much the same as being paid in Aussie dollars anyway.
Heh, heh.
You’re a nice guy Anton.
I’ll think about the currency stuff, Anton. It could actually help me think about things a little more too.
He started the shit fest, i didn’t. I’ll stop when he apologizes to everyone for the appalling way he treats people on the site. He doesn’t have to apologize to me though.
—————
Dog:
Anton, take a look at the 200 year trendline and factor in the laws of physics and nature. Result S&P 150.
Dog can’t take a 200 year chart and make a prediction. There’s the issue of the gold standard vs fiat money and all that. You need to PV value the time series with an appropriate discount rate and then crate a chart. It’s like looking at apples and pears.
“It could actually help me think about things a little more too.”
Teaching a subject always helps one do it better. Or so I’m told.
And a currency trading blog, or regular post, will add big picture, macro perspective to the other stuff here, making for a better iBC.
If the expression hadn’t already been tainted by that sleazemeister Don Trump, I’d say that makes it a “win, win” proposition.
Weed,
Go fuck yourself and your “Jimminy fucking cricket,” lying toss- pot claims.
You’re marked….
(I noticed J complaining about stolen monikers also…)
Anton, you need to get yourself to a library and check out the following authors because while they operate in the literary ghetto that is Science Fiction and Fantasy they are without peer and reside on my bookshelves next to Kafka, Sarte, Robertson Davies, Henry James, et. al
Charles Stross
William Gibson
Neil Gaiman
Philip K Dick
Haruki Murakami (OK he’s a magic realist a la Gabriel Garcia Marquez, Isabel Allende, and Julio Cortazar but who ever heard of a Japanese magic realist?)
Cuervos,
Worthy writers, all. I was partial to Harlan Ellison, among others, back in the day. I think Neil Gaiman posts on Twitter now.
Philip K. Dick’s youngest daughter is a friend of mine, tho I haven’t seen her in awhile. She and her brother have most of the responsibility for running his estate. He died soon after they finished Blade Runner and she has pictures of he and Ridley Scott on the set. She was about 3 at the time.
Without question, the best writer in sci-fi, and maybe all American literature at this moment is Gene Wolfe.
If you haven’t read his stuff (Book of the New Sun, Latro In the Mist, etc), run, don’t walk, etc, etc.
But be careful of the cultists. They are worse than Scientologists.
_______
Addenda: Neil Gaiman is a lightweight, imho. Harlan Ellison was my favorite as a kid, but I haven’t read anything by him in years.
I think Ellison had some health problems a few years back, but spent a lot of energy over the years fighting for credit/residuals for the Terminator movies from his Twilight Zone episode “Soldier.” I spoke with him on the phone and got him to speak at my college, tho I missed his actual talk. I think he still has his Dangerous Visions bookstore down in Thousand Oaks or something.
I’ve heard of Gene Wolfe, probably from Jake, but will hunt him down. Got errands to run near Green Apple Books today.