Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,458 Blog Posts
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This is some sweet shit!
I can not see it. I already feel behind the curve.
i love hurricane season
Thanks, I’m ready to silver up. I have gold and was wondering if it was getting a little overbought here. Data says maybe not.
The info is tight.
The only issue I have is that Josh has me thinking this market is about to roll over, and that Friday was nothing more than the Market Makers squeezing every last penny out of the bulls before they tank this thing.
Vincenzo put the wrong chart there. I will change to CRB chart.
Excellent work Fly and team… su maravilloso
This is great stuff. Thanks
Nice read and points well taken although Fly is a bit mellow in his writing.
Mrs. Fly must have done the proofreading.
The Disclaimer/Privacy Report was awesome and I hope the attorney’s bill wasn’t too large (as if there is such a thing).
TC – I wrote that disclaimer. I demand satisfaction, for it is a thing of beauty.
I took Fly’s lcd thesis one step farther. If the Chinese are buying TVs, they need something to watch. STV is one solution.
This is from a yahoo message board post, which I am loathe to admit I troll, but it sums things up nicely.
“It sells smartcards to over 200 regional cable operators throughout China. To date, China Digital has sold over 25 million smartcards, or to 50% of all cable TV households in China.
Currently, there are 50 million households with cable TV in China, an incredible leap from the 15 million in the country just three years ago. There’s no denying that demand for digital cable is growing rapidly in the country. This is creating a tremendous opportunity for China Digital, especially when you consider that there are 380 million households with television sets in China, and the Chinese government has set a timeline to convert all TV broadcast to digital format by 2015, starting with the larger cities.
So in five years, most of the 380 million TV households in China will have digital cable. That means the number of digital cable TVs and smart cards sold in China is estimated to reach 110 million by the end of 2011.”
Uh, I was going to say ….at the risk of the Wrath of the Fly, WTF is that chart? I remember ARD – I watched it go up 50% several years ago and said that is all – it went up another 50%. Some say HK is gonna comeback. I have had a limit order for SLV for weeks – the fucker will not pullback – buy the pullback is what I am waiting on. John Paulson is a real gold bug now – he is not going to be selling out any time soon – he is in for longer term. The downward channel is at a crucial point with the averages around the 200 day MA. Decision time in next few weeks – will it break up or down?
when something becomes obvious to everyone, then it’s obviously wrong. that’s the story with inflation, most people today believe inflation it’s a problem now or down the road. i think not.
70% of the U.S. economy is consumer spending. during the last 2 yrs the American consumer has seen the following;
1- residential r/e prices drop between 30-50%
2- stock prices drop 40%
3- their wages become stagnant
4- economy in severe recession
5- unemployment that continues to rise
6- their debt levels by almost any measurement at record highs.
7- taxes in many different forms over the next couple of years.
8- the most important one, credit availability almost non-existent.
all the fiscal and fed stimulus has and will not materially affect the above to the point of a significant contribution to GDP.
the big differences between today and early 2000’s is as follows;
1- residential r/e going through the roof that enabled the consumer to use the equity in his house as an ATM.
2- The Bush tax cuts
3- expanding balance sheet and p&l
4- credit availability to the point that if you were breathing, you were able to get funds. ( my 18 yr old son got, over the mail, a credit card with a 5000.00 credit line. he had zero credit history. )
until a solution is found to remedy that 70% of GDP, inflation and economic growth will remain anemic.
The Yahoo Message Boards is where Josh does all of his research. He prefers the TIMBERRRRRRR headlines.
oh boy, little boy Chivas comes out with a 180 opinion, as usual.
thank you for the little boy.
don’t read it.
Oops. I forgot to add this.
This seven year old (who has autism) may sing the National Anthem at the NBA final as the Magic have won the three games she has performed at including the Celtics third game of the playoff.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfUV57PT7-E&feature=player_embedded
I read it and I agree with many of your points, except for the fact that none of it matters.
could you please use scribd to post this doc? it makes it much easier to print/save and send to others. If not ill just have to make due because this is awesome and FREE. Thank you for your hard work.
LOL.
ROFL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYCjpaavw3A
Good shit…
Are you beta testing these reports so that in the future people will buy them off you?
…until a solution is found to remedy that 70% of GDP, inflation and economic growth will remain anemic.
You remember the 70’s no? When we first switched to an “all fiat” currency?
I just remember sitting in the back of my mom’s station wagon, waiting for gas. From my reading of economic history, though, we had anemic growth and inflation at the same time.
I happen to agree with all the points you listed as well, and I am loathe to second guess you… however, I do not trust these motherfuckers. They are weasels and they have but one route of escape — to inflate away their massive liabilities.
Given this has been the route taken by every major fiat currency ever created, don’t you think we should be prepared?
_______________
Fly, what was your vid? It is taken down already on your youtube link.
__________________
Fly-You found the commercial for the 2010 Mustang worthy of ROFL?
My hit said something about it being removed by Viacom for copyright infringement.
Send Danny the attorney on this case.
He will tie them in knots if his disclaimer is any indication.
It was eminen getting raped at MTV awards by Bruno
The demorats are not playing by the rules that the Repubes are – the current example is that Obama opposed Supreme Court nominees on the grounds that their philosophy was too far right (not left enough) and now he appoints a lefty with confidence that the Repubes will not do what he did as a Senator. Duh, if one sports team uses its own rules in a game, who’s gonna win? The unions like the UAW gave Obama $50 mill for his election and now Obama is spending over a hundred bill on bailing the UAW out by bailing out the auto companies. This is the type of government that is the reason for advocating minimum government.
Jake,
the main differences between now and the 70’s are as follows;
1- wage inflation, the big driver of the 70’s
2- shortages, now if you have the money you can buy anything.
3- inefficient american manufacturing. part of the 80’s bull market had to do with the restructuring of corporate America.
4-residential r/e was hot between 1976-1981
5- credit availability was not a problem.
6- leverage (debt) a lot greater today.
7- outsourcing of jobs was virtually non-existant
8- tech today helps keep inflation in check ( many reasons )
9- unions were a lot more influencial.
i can go on, believe me.
yes, it’s always good to be prepared, but with 500-700 trillion in debt out there, most of it in derivatives, it will take an act of God, to allow us to inflate the problem away. the good news is, that until real clarity is known, gold will do well. and it will do even better with deflation or extreme inflation.
again, until we resolve that 70% portion of GDP, economic growth and inflation, imo, will remain anemic.
How much bigger has the Fed Gov grown – at least in spending or defecit spending – since the 70’s? I would think thats another major and relevant difference.
Chivas:
I don’t buy your argument. In a sense your argument follow the old Keynesian model is that you can’t have inflation when there is an output gap…
The 70’s put paid to that argument.
With respect to the debt situation. yes it’s true that the current debt position is bigger than it was at that time. However the level of interest rates are much, much lower as well which means there is a wider tolerance to support a higher level of debt.
One last thing……
Why assume that the level of debt now is unsustainable, it wasn’t after the war. Furthermore Japan has been running a debt to GDP ratio of around 180% of GDP and Canada was at one stage running a deficit of around 65%.
The debt position is concerning of course and will act as a head wind, but it’s not as alarmist as people think.
Here’s the point, The US has been a highly leveraged nation even going back to its foundation. It still managed to become the most powerful nation of earth economically.
I wouldn’t worry so much about the debt.
Eric:
The US deficit can be quickly dealt with if there is political will.
Freeze spending for a decade and means test all social security in addition to adding larger co-payments to medicare.
Australia was in the same position in the 80’s. The government at the time basically turned around and told the people that only those below the poverty line would receive social security on retirement and they made retirement savings far more attractive. The structural deficit was all but eliminated to a large extent.
The US is a rich nation. The only problem it has is that a lot of spending is misdirected. It could if it wanted eliminate the deficit and outstanding obligations very quickly if it wanted to.
One other thing to do…. Stop fighting wars. Iraq will end up costing $1 trillion even before it’s over.
J,
i’m not selling anything. the only point i’m trying to make is the linkage between 70% of GDP and economic growth and inflation.
when you mention japan you are helping me make my point. Has japan had any inflation or economic growth over the last ten years. ( the lost decade )
here is just one item to reinforce my point.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/06/re-thinking-tha.html
Chivas…. two more points.
8- tech today helps keep inflation in check ( many reasons )
Untrue. You can still have inflation when there is a well behaved CPI. “Inflation is first and foremost a monetary problem”. So you can have the price of computers falling while inflation is rising. We saw that through the early part of the decade.
9- unions were a lot more influencial.
They can try but without closed borders their victory will only be unsustainable. In any event there is NOT one healthy competitive industry where there is large union involvement. Unions are fucked… only thing is they just don’t realize it as not even their man in the White House can bend economic laws.
Chivas:
japan hasn’t actually suffered an economic collapse, which is the point I’m making. Furthermore despite all our pointing fingers at them per cap GDP hasn’t been to bad there. the reason being that their population is like falling off a cliff.
the average Japanese worker hasn’t been too badly off, to be honest. Wages may have stagnated however the strength of the Yen over the past 20 years or so has muted any large decline in living standard. Furthermore even though we continue to argue that it’s been a lost decade for them, the employment picture in Japan hasn’t been that bad… running at around 4% ish
J said, “So you can have the price of computers falling while inflation is rising. We saw that through the early part of the decade.”
Oh boy. He has no idea what Chivas was saying!
J,
this is the last comment i am making.
you keep making my points. UNIONS are not an issue today, but they were in the 1970’s, which created a lot of the iflation problem of that time.
You fellas are talking about notions far above my 5th grade education. Writing about shit you can only theorize about, but in fact have no idea. haha
I like reading this, dont get me wrong. However I believe your time would be much better off finding the next CROX, FEED, KLIC, STAR,ODP, KDE and my favorite, NUHC.
Regards
chuck
I wonder if the sickly little girly men in Dracula like castles truly understand the phrase “Don’t Tread on Me” and what it means. You know there’s a serious shit storm on the horizon.
Anon:
I actually do have an idea what Chivas is saying. It’s you that seems to have an inability to follow.
My point is that inflation will come back as it’s a monetary problem. The union thing never had and never will have a bearing on inflation.
—–
Chivas:
Unions were not and will not be an issue for inflation to return. It’s a monetary issue. There is no such thing as wage push inflation. there is only one kind and it comes from the bowels of the Fed.
J —
Chivas was saying unions were a lot more influential, and that they are less so now. Therefore, unions do not lead to wage-price growth common to an inflationary environment.
_____________
Great stuff iBC crew. I am sorry I was unable to participate.
And yet FUTURES are going higher. Nothing else matters.
Jake:
Ok….
However my point is that the only protagonist in terms of fueling inflation is the Fed. Wage push inflation as it was called in the 70’s was bullshit in the larger scheme of things. People never look beyond the first step which in the case of the 70’s they saw union wage demands being met and then interpreted those demands were inflationary. They were not.
Unions are a fucking cancer on the economy, as the cause unemployment however they don’t cause inflation.
The Feds actions were as they are now.
J — FWIW, I side with Uncle Miltie’s definition as well.
___________
j,
You can’t write worth a shit and you clearly DO NOT understand that he was not talking about the price of fucking computers you rube.
Chivas was referring to technology (in a general sense) as a force against inflation and, if you don’t understand that, do some kind of a Yahoo search and figure it out.
I understand why he brushed you off and I am now doing the same.
And yet FUTURES are going higher. Nothing else matters.
Yea.. anecdotally there seems to be interest developing for hard assets.
I bought this beaten up piece of shit infrastructure play back in march for 48 cents Aussie. HDF is the symbol on the ASX.
These idiots own a gas pipeline running down central/eastern Australia and a water company in the UK.
An US infrastructure player has made a bid for the pipeline which could eventually mean the two assets end up worth 3 bucks a share. It’s now trading $1.25.
Hard asset/ protection from inflation could cause some shit to go up by multiples.
LOL — Fly’s twittering. Must be in a good mood.
__________
If SPX clears 933 with some volume it will be a clear breakout……..upper targets can be thrown after that
Anon:
You gutless wonder. Why don’t you post under your real moniker instead. Man-up you gutless freak.
Chivas was referring to technology (in a general sense) as a force against inflation and, if you don’t understand that, do some kind of a Yahoo search and figure it out.
the price of technology has got nothing to do with inflation going down, you fucking moron. It’s you that doesn’t understand.
You could still have the CPI or the price of tech falling by 100% over year and raging inflation.
Falling CPI and falling tech prices has nothing to do with inflation. Inflation is currency debasement not falling tech or CPI.
Now fuck off and stop trying to argue with your better.
Moron.
Still stupid? I’ll do the search for you.
“Research and development means new technology, efficiency gains, cost-cutting, price-cutting and, yes, deflation. Productivity gains mean that businesses could afford to sell their products for less since it is costing less to make them.”
http://antidismal.blogspot.com/2009/02/deflation-good-and-bad.html
Good night.
uncle milton is right. the end product is what matters.
the 2000’s saw a whole bunch of asset bubbles. stocks, r/e, commodities, treasury bonds and i’m sure some others. these were the by-product to a large extent of monetary policy. the latest bubble of course is excess free reserves. these asset bubbles are a form of monetary inflation.
the main point is that the monetary policy of the 2000’s did not produce the kind of inflation we saw in the 1970’s. that’s the kind of inflation that cripples everything.
J,
technology enhances productivity and said productivity tames inflation.
Not only that but man-hours saved help prevent wage inflation via overtime, labor shortages and demand for higher pay … hence the stagnation in wages the past few decades with computers doing most of the work that use to be done manually.
Anon:
You can still have productivity enhancement and raging inflation.
I’ll repeat: the price of tech falling has nothing to do with the Fed creating too many dollars.
Productivity gains mean that businesses could afford to sell their products for less since it is costing less to make them.”
So what? What does have to do with inflation?
Doofus, I have a coke factory that produces 100 bottles of the shit per hour. Fucknuckle, my engineer does a little tinkering with the machine and cranks up the speed to 200 bottles per hours. Straight away fixed costs could be spread over the 200 instead of 100 bottles which allows me to sell the crap much cheaper.
What the fuck does that have to do with inflation, Anon, you monstrous boob? Nothing Zilch!
What the fuck does that have to do with the Fed creating more dolls in the system?
————
Chivas:
The kind of inflation we saw in the 70’s and we’ll see soon is/was a lot different to the inflation of the early 2000’s only because it was milder. That’s all. It’s just the degree of the Fed’s decision to create more dollars.
But yes. I do agree with your other points.
the 2000’s saw a whole bunch of asset bubbles. stocks, r/e, commodities, treasury bonds and i’m sure some others. these were the by-product to a large extent of monetary policy.
That’s true.
The current inflation being created is going to be a hum dinger.
Not only that but man-hours saved help prevent wage inflation via overtime, labor shortages and demand for higher pay … hence the stagnation in wages the past few decades with computers doing most of the work that use to be done manually.
Honestly, this is like dealing with a bunch of retards at a sheltered workshop where they produce wooden toys. (Not you Chivas).
No gentleman productivity enhancments have nothing to do with inflation.
Even fucking Greenspan took this theory back when he more or less suggested the great moderation was bullshit… that he had made a huge mistake….. (like most people he was looking at the CPI)
There was no freaking “great moderation” as it was all disguised in asset prices.
Quit saying I am talking about the price of falling tech. That is not what this is about. Perhaps I need to hold your hand on this.
I take over your bottling plant because the Coke people find you too stupid to represent them.
I do NOT increase production but leave it at 100 bottles per hour.
I instead, replace all of your incandescent lighting with LED – technology saves me money.
I purchase a higher SEER A/C unit and install an energy automation system – technology saves me money.
I install solar panels and install new high r-value insulation – technology saves me money.
I buy a computer to automate the production line and let go of the workers that used to do it manually – technology saves me money.
I purchase bottles from a new company that uses less glass and high-efficiency printers to add my logo – technology saves me money.
I switch to a shipping company that uses RFID to move my product – technology saves me money.
My sales force is given new software to optimize sales and enter new markets – technology saves me money.
My development team is given access to databases with consumer information so they can tweak the product and make it more popular – technology saves me money.
My marketing team goes viral using Twitter and You Tube to capture new customers for a lot less than traditional media – technology saves me money.
100 bottles now cost A LOT less to manufacture so I go to Wal-Mart as I can now compete with other brands and get my product on their shelf at a LOWER price vs. competitors.
Yes, the simple definition of inflation is expanding M0.
Technology saving money by increasing efficiency and productivity is a counter force to inflation.
Anon Says
Technology saving money by increasing efficiency and productivity is a counter force to inflation.
Great job, anon. You’re simply expanding on my easy to understand example (even for a simpleton like you), added a few dramatic interludes here and there and presto you came up with the same end point I did, which is labor saving enhancements allow firms to spread their fixed and semi- variable costs over the same or larger productions runs.
So how does this exactly interact with the Fed producing more dollars, Einstein?
In other news, GLW ups guidance
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090601PR202.html
J,
Your the simpleton that can’t see the forest for the trees …. much like the deflation argument, again you refuse to recognize the disinflationary effect technology has had on wages, materials, design, marketing and logistics … you’re a down under imbecile!
Impressive stuff, indude … Monsieur Le Flea & Co., have created the need for a category above & beyond the 1st tier blog, as in the Tour de France’s rating system of climbs. The highest rated climb, even above the vaunted Category 1 climb, is the ‘Hors’ category; which equates to ‘beyond’ or ‘transcendant’ category, reserved for the epitomy of climbs.
Strange it should be pronounced like ‘whores’, but it tis what it tis.
IBC is clearly in the Hors Category of blogging.
Indeud.
A thanks to “Yogi and Bobo” for keeping me watching. And interesting stuff (once you’ve struggled past the Chivas-j mutual dick-sucking competition).
My problem is this. I’ve sat out this bear-rally waiting for a good re-test and the fundamentals pointed to one late May-June. Many others (think, international) are the same.
Whilst your markets have continued up, the USD has plummeted, resulting in zero net return for international players. That reflects as low trading volumes (with the exception of the gimp’s at G&S and their TARP). And if the markets breakout, that only exaggerates the confusion.
So until the markets re-test, lots of cash will remain on the side-lines. Whilst that might be considered the sign of a weak, spineless looser, I would remind you that we (think any country other than the US) aren’t in debt to the tune of x-trillion.
Infact the easiest and most risk-free way of making oodles of cash at present is to short the USD against just about anything!
Your the simpleton that can’t see the forest for the trees …. much like the deflation argument, again you refuse to recognize the disinflationary effect technology has had on wages, materials, design, marketing and logistics … you’re a down under imbecile!
E8..
If you’re going abuse someone for not agreeing with you I suggest you a least learn o spell. Your and you’re may sound the same but they’re not interchangeable.
Yes, I’m aware that raising productivity may bring forward lower prices. Does that mean that you actually think it implies falling wages where that is most pronounced. Honestly, you deserve a clip over the ears for being an idiot saying that.
Inflation is first and foremost a issue to do with monetary disequilibrium. Falling prices as a result of tech advances is not deflationary.
You idiot, if it was every tech advance would make us poorer instead of wealthier since he invention of the wheel
Show me one implementation of “Uncle Miltie”‘s ideas that didn’t need a strong federal government to back it up.
Examples: Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Indonesia
Friedmanism is and will remain to be an abject failure as long as there is a strong participatory democracy. The voters prefer to have protection from the forces that salivate at the prospect of having a
“completely free – (Robber Baron) like market”
which of the barons robbed, Cuervos?
China. During the last 10 years, over a trillion dollars was shipped to China for cheap goods. What did this do to US inflation? I am not entirely against government involvement in the auto biz because we must have some heavy manufacturing for national defense reasons and almost every government aids their auto biz in some way. Globalization will never be free enterprise because every country is for itself no. 1……except the very stupid US government allows itself to be walked over by China.
No one believes that US growth will be more than 1 to 2% in the future – any tax increases will be self defeating – cause less growth and less taxes. Therefore, the government must slash spending or print money. Which do you bet on?
or perhaps China has been walked over by the US. They’re the ones holding crap paper while the US consumer is holding a 20 buck handyman drill. Who has the the better deal?
And you think the car business will ever be the same?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/140454-why-silicon-valley-should-take-over-the-auto-industry
Are you all ready?!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTFJocQBLyE
All you guys can calm down now…. I’m back.
Good morning TheArtist. Where were you?
Henry, Flagler Beach Florida, for a week of lazyness, fishing, boating up the intercoastal, and I took three Harleys and we road all over the place. just goofing off.
now I’m back to work.
The very bullish case is that we are now in positive growth and the money velocity will accelerate and the commods will increase further and the gub’ment must try to borrow more in the face of rising interest rates – ANYONE WANT TO BUY THEM 10 YEAR TREASURYS? ANYONE? WHY, BEN BERNANKE WILL BUY THEM! HAHAHAHA.
anon
The bullish case is that stocks are simply going higher. That’s it.
Damn disappointing to see CSCO and TRV becoming a part of the DJIA.
I thought for sure it was going to be CROX.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ans2mNbxPb2o&refer=home
Buys
FSYS 21.65
EXEL 5.19
added to aussie long, long Aussie yen and bought more dollar Cad.
Whole numbers galore waiting to be taken out
FSYS 22
GU 3
CROX 5!!!
ENTR 3
RFMD 3
EXEL 6
GAIA 6
XOMA 1
IMGN 8 9 10
DVAX 2-6 ?
some might consider buying DVAX on a trade above 1.45 – 1.50
There’s your early morning ideas.
Although it’s just me talking my book!
Limit order buy ENTR at 2.03,
hate when I miss the dip by a penny!
ISM Index: Prior 40.1 / Mkt Expects 42 / Actual 42.8
…Constuction Spending: Prior 0.3% / Mkt Expects -0.8% / Actual +0.8%
Personal Income & Spending: Prior -0.3%/ Mkt Expects -0.2% / Actual +0.5%… Spending: Prior -0.2% / Mkt Expects -0.2% / Actual -0.1%
Oh my, these are horrible numbers and in the immortal words of Scum bucket…
“The market is either going to crash today or October”
I particularly hate the personal income stat. If personal income is rising that means people are becoming poorer and the market tanks today or October. Does that make sense?
ISM Index: Prior 40.1 / Mkt Expects 42 / Actual 42.8
…Constuction Spending: Prior 0.3% / Mkt Expects -0.8% / Actual +0.8%
Personal Income & Spending: Prior -0.3%/ Mkt Expects -0.2% / Actual +0.5%… Spending: Prior -0.2% / Mkt Expects -0.2% / Actual -0.1%
Oh my, these are horrible numbers and in the immortal words of Scum buck…
“The market is either going to crash today or October”
I particularly hate the personal income stat. If personal income is rising that means people are becoming poorer and the market tanks today or October. Does that make sense?
Sorry won’t permission me to remove.
honest question…. I know it’s low prob… however what happens to stocks if the market starts thinking the US could grow 3 to 4% next year.
I know it’s low prob however we can’t discount anything here as we’ve never experienced this amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus either.
So what happens.
Flipped 500 shares GMCR long for $3+ scalp.
Holding all other longs. Only Add: 2K more CROX @ $3 = 17K long @ avg. 2.81
Egregious load on RFMD @ 2.93 lookin to thin north of 3
j: If you’re going abuse someone for not agreeing with you I suggest you a least learn o spell. Your and you’re may sound the same but they’re not interchangeable.
If you look again you’ll see that I used both “your” and “you’re” in the same paragraph … chalk that up to posting at 3:30 am.
j: Sorry won’t permission me to remove.
Now what’s “your” excuse … ????
IMGN buy 8.12
stop out @ 8 sell 8.50+
more RFMD @ 2.89
Yes, E8 the 3.30 watching the market thing is a bitch. I’m empathetic.
As an aside I really don’t now what it is but I’ve witnessed the worst bitch fights one could imagine on monetary policy around the web, particularly on Aussie web sites.. Monetary policy seems to bring the worst outta people for some strange reason I still can’ fathom.
Sorry if I went too hard.
J,
I’ll chalk “your” attitude/grammar up to living on that gamodeme you call home now.
Are we finally getting some mojo in FTK?
go go FTK, I see alot of ibc-ers holding FTK me too!
lol -E8
Wonderful news today! The USD is dying, the ability for the US gov’t to borrow is ending, and the price of everything we consume is skyrocketing! Buy Buy Buy! Oh, and by the way N Korea might drop a nuclear bomb in Tokyo sometime soon…….
Oh, AEZS just found the cure for cancer……..
j- I think part of the problem with people and monetary policy, is that they “don’t get it”. They hold beliefs about what should be rather than looking at the simple relationship between monetary policy and what it takes to make money in the markets:
1. Central banks ease (the reason does not really matter).
2. Money is created (it needs to go somewhere).
3. Financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc.) go up, because the newly created money needs to go somewhere.
4. When the real economy needs capital money starts to move out of financial assets into the “real economy”
5. When the real economy needs more capital (near the top of the bull market), they feed new stock to the market and kill the bull with supply.
6. Bear market ensues and the cycle begins anew.
I know it’s an overly simplistic model, but I think people get hung up and miss the point that when there’s excess money “floating around” it’s got to go someplace.
BOOM has broken out of a month-long continuation flag today. If the textbook is correct, 14 points up is the target, or roughly $32.
Also, a new P&F alert was issued with a target of $24.
the 370Z is a cool car.
Yep… goo points Yogi.
Any reason not to load up on GM puts here? Am I missing something?