With oil up 5% and gasoline up nearly 10%, there is a nice crack spread situation to exploit, good Sirs. As you know, I stepped in this morning, buying a few blocks of WNR, south of $11.70. Aside from being a PPT standout, I like the fact that there is a large short position in the name. Going into the driving season, with oil under $50, expect the refiners to catch fire, at least temporarily.
Other refiners work a look include HES, TSO, DK and of course VLO.
Aside from that, I am still loving my “fuck gold position,” via DZZ. And, I’m long GLW until $11.
In short, this market is boring as hell. Never short a boring market and never bet against HORATIO CLAWHAMMER.
Finally, I might buy a little more DUG/ERY towards the end of trade, based upon my fervent hatred against XOM.
UPDATE: I sold out of LNN, south of $24.75. And, I sold out of DZZ, in order to raise cash, north of $21.25
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Crack is for kids…The Fly is God
looking to end the day at 755, at which point I mail a check to International Medical for 12k… It’s nice to be retired and still out there fighting evil.
XOM getting hit. Long WNR, Long DUG a nice pair.
Fly
What is your take on Frontier (FTO), granted it does not have the short interest that some of its competitors have.
I love the look of DK.
It’s as easy as 3-2-1
I thought HORATIO CLAWHAMMER was your short-side persona?
it is.
I am long DUG/ERY
Fly, according to my read on GLW, $11 was tagged today. Wasnt that your sell target?
The PPT is an excellent product and I enjoy getting the next level of thinking behind some of the Fly’s buys. I would highly recommend anyone on the fence pulling the trigger.
By the way, where’s the asshole you called 7200 the “Phil Bottom”. There is no bottom at 7200, fuckface.
I remain short.
The Phil Bottom, if you wish, is sitting 1200 points lower (hopefully, with an igniting VIX above 70). Longer term, 3000 DOW. But, for the next few weeks and months, we’re gunning for 6000.
Write it down.
For the record: that last post was mine (I forgot to ID it)
Quietly watching Fly’s moves over the past week and missed some of his gems(SWHC,DZZ) so I’m in WNR @11.65 Can only further validate the PPT’s value.
This is the crash you’ve all been waiting for, boys and girls. An ugly Friday and a washout Monday… book it. Investors are finally giving up on the safe haven stocks (consumer staples et al)… the final plunge is before us.
looks like the target was hit again… fighting evil in one evil world as “Maw” would put it.
Contrarian Indicator,
Absolutely right. I havent covered a single short in about 3 weeks. Sold my USO and SWHC today — timing mightve been close to perfect. We resume lower on the averages.
Everybody I know, even my own family, is talking about buying stocks cuz “everything is so cheap”. Yeah, right.
The VIX at 44 is all you need to know about how high the levels of complacency are right now.
And the fact that we’re this oversold tells me most shorts have already left the building. The bleeding down will continue for the next few days, courtesy of capitulating long-only funds, dying hedge funds and bullshit dip-buyers who thought the low 7000s was the low.
Once we clear 7000, watch the VIX begin to catch fire as bullshit dip-buyers start to get stopped out and the market catches a fuck-you downdraft.
GE continues NOT TO BOUNCE. That’s significant. Even bullshit banks like BAC have caught a relief rally. GE? Still at $9. The measured move break from the descending triangle in GE (formed between Nov 08 and Jan 09), spells a downside target of about $6 for GE. And with an estimated 30% left on the downside for GE on this leg down, I suspect the market has plenty of juice to give for the shorts.
That’s my gameplan.
would be long right now if Obama hadn’t committed troops to Afghanistan, planned on keeping 50k in Iraq, adding to the 120 private contractors over there… Yes, I’d be long, but the guy is like a crackpot Republican whose going to take us into a WWIII with his policies. Meanwhile, I’ll keep sending the checks off to the good soldiers, fighting evil…
Phyllis_from_brazillus…WTF is with the fixation with GE. Listen fuckface…nobody is gonna buy GE until the div is slashed and immelt is ditched. Stop reading into GE movement (or lack thereof) as anything significant. Find another proxy.
Anon,
GE’s price movement has been working for me as a beautiful proxy. Up 22% right now YTD, asshole.
As long as the portfolio responds in fashion, I stick with the gameplan. That simple.
Phil the Bear, how about FAZ and SRS and SDS and TZA?
A flat to slightly green close sets up a crushing up move tomorrow or short covering ahead of a weekend.
I’ve played SRS before. Havent used SDS or TZA. SRS is back above its 50-day. Could be good for a trade with a tight stop. I’m not involved though — I’ve got 13 short positions to manage right now (including DUG). I’ve got enough short exposure.
Phyllis…BAC is up 100% since you said to “be patriotic and buy it”. Thanks fuckface.
Phil,
The “fuck-you downdraft” – nice turn of phrase.
The bears have been given anything and everything they could ask for in the bad news dept they just cant trigger armageddon! A snap back looms to those who think the bottom will just fall out!!!
Henry, give us your forecast – you don’t believe a bull market is about to take place – hence your name?
weeks and weeks of apathy in this market better give way to something fun.
Braceflaps,
Thanks.
Anon,
Now I’m getting criticized for a stock I never owned. BAC remains a joke. COF last year rallied from 30 in July to 60 in September on government fuckery. Did that make it a good company? No. It was getting fucked around by the no-short financial rule and government men with astronaut boots. Now, it’s a $12 stock. I don’t claim to know where BAC is headed tomorrow. I DO KNOW I DONT EVERY WANT TO BE IN IT. The banks are too hard a trade right now. I was being sarcastic, because we all know C and BAC likely have zero equity left.
What I do know is that consumers are fucked and oil companies like XOM are overvalued. It’s a simple thesis and it doesnt get affected by market-to-market account or any of that other jazz that can make a stock like BAC or C jump around 20-30% in a day.
On that thesis, I like CPKI, AAPL, XOM short DUG (long), and a number of others. I do, however, have a couple of financial shorts, but they’re overbought and expensive so there’s meet on the bone for shorts: NTRS and V.
Fuck this I’m not speaking till we rally unless I sell something.
Check the VIX, Henry – that ain’t apathy. This is a freakin BEAR market and bounces up can happen at any time, but then it is back down again. I wish that there was a stock named OBAMA to short – a true winner!
Good god, after trading with a 7% gain around the noon hour I ended the fucking day dead flat. I did pick up more ADBE today. With 3+ Billion in cash someone will buy them at these levels. My bets are on AAPL or GOOG, they both want their technology horribly bad and GOOG with its online apps just creams itself for flash. Top pick: short gold and long oil (commodity).
Henry,
My continued bearishness on the market is, in some ways, a Costanza bet. Your outlook (ie, that we cant possibly go lower) embodies the feelings of many of the people I’ve been talking to in recent days. In other words, people just cant believe theres room for a move lower in light of how oversold we are.
Anybody selling “down here”, the argument goes, would have to be stupid. Everyone’s already been shaken out, the dip-buyers argue. Well, it’s precisely the insanity of another 1200 point drop down a stairwell that supports my zany bearish thesis. 🙂
I assure you, once we tag 6000, panic will set in. The dipbuyers will go into a dizzy state of desperation. Then, we might have a chance to rally. I wont play that move higher though. I’ll just go into cash and wait a few months for the next big opportunity.
As long as we remain in a long-term downtrend, I’ll stick with moves in the trend’s direction. No counter-trend rally participation for me unless it’s a hedge.
Fly – you know you were worried about your short gold. Raise cash. Come on.
Jeff,
I love the Flyster, but I was thinking the same thing. The guy’s 50% cash and is “raising cash” on his 2-day-old gold short.
It’s simple really. The Fly-man is feeling the tape turn and knows that gold and the DOW have been moving inversely. No harm done.
But it’s fun to pull the “Clawman’s” leg once in a while.
For the record I’m neither long nor short gold, but would love to begin legging in below $850.
True.
Market down= gold up. I know.
The fly is humble and human. That is why your blog has catapulted from the early days of Cramer posts – which used to be nice when Cramer was on radio only. Now he is CFR trash. Sorry for the unclear antecedent. Cramer is trash.
Jeff,
You said it best. The Flyman is the real deal.
He’s humble even when he’s cocky.
He wins when he’s close to bankruptcy.
He’s human, like the rest of us, but runs a godlike blog.
That’s the story.
I don’t see being short as Costanza?
What’s the catalyst? Where’s the confidence? Where’s the hope and change or even the audacity?
She goes down, but I made huge $$ today pairing long Canadian banks while shorting US CRE. Not sure how long the former will last but I do believe they are making money, that eventually they will be acquirers, and that they may get govt. help toward that end since they really haven’t been getting any now (unlike, say the entire rest of the world)…