Let it be known, I sold out of the rest of my CHL, MT and ACM. With the proceeds, I bought stupid dollars.
Really, I want no part of some bullshit meltdown or short squeeze. The ultimate goal here is NOT to ride the market down to zero, a la DEVILDOG. Instead, I intend to preserve capital, in order to buy good companies on the cheap.
The only problem: valuations are not compelling.
In order to get me “balls to the wall” bullish, I need to see the S&P at 550, or 10x 2009 earnings. I think it’s fair to say 2010 will not be a “bounce year.” So, there is no logical reason to apply a premium to stock valuations.
Despite the Federal Reserve’s printing presses, we are in a deflationary vortex. Stocks like XOM, CVX, COP and RIG can be shorted with impunity.
There is no reason at all to be long commercial Re. Once the retail shit storm hits, the commercial Re space will be obliterated, which in turn will lead to another meltdown in the banks. It’s a vicious cycle that will annihilate those who get sentimental when buying or selling stocks.
All of the big banks will have to be nationalized or magically “go away.” When that happens, the Federal Government will have to either wipe out bond holders or eat 7 trill in bank debt.
Barring a surprise development, I will not execute another trade today, currently 20% long, 25% short, 55% in cash.
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Zombie is slow
Amen to Deflationary Vortex!
Too bad the some bondholders that would be wiped out by a bank bond default are to a large degree the same bondholders that buy US Treasury bonds. So it is even more of a Catch-22.
Ozark
Exactly.
“Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more of expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalised, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism. (Das Kapital, 1867)
Bernanke’s tone is too arrogant. I have dispatched a ninja to take care of him and Rothschild
I love that the Fly is at odds.
Something is about to happen and although it matters not if the Fly is positioned to capture the next move, I am >90% long and flat on the year.
Fly wins all the time. I get that, but I still hope I’m right.
Believe me when I say there has never been a better moment to short stocks. I doubled up my short positions on that spike. I tripled my short positions in GS and WFC. The market is going to cascade into the close. HObama has failed and his mortgage plan is bullshit.
Yes, Uncle Ben is correct.
Why just the other day my neighbor and I engaged in a conversation about The Fed’s Balance Sheet.
Henry do you still own SWHC?
Give me a call Fly.
You can come over, have a few beers, and discuss the Fed’s Balance Sheet.
Fly,
The only problem with your thought process is that the SP-500 P/E has been reflecting overstated earnings with the adopted use of operating earnings since the mid 1990s (Prechter makes reference to that in his book, Conquer the Crash: How to Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression).
If you go to the S&P website and download their excel spreadsheet, they give you the operating and reported earnings data. Applying reported earnings, the SP-500 is trading in the 20 P/E area. We have a lot of room to drop.
Fly cashing out = contrarian signal. tradable bottom likely within the next few trading days.
Excellent quote prof. Marx was right about the direction capitalism will take
Lots of new 52 weeks lows today…..
AA, COF, ESLR, STI, WYNN, UNG, AXP, ING, just to name a few
CHOMP! CHOMP!…..CHOMP! CHOMP! CHOMP!
Sources within Goldman Sachs (GS) are saying that partners are being forced to borrow millions of dollars to cover margin calls. The borrowing, which is not a “widespread phenomenon,” affects a “few partners,” but sources say the firm is arranging for its own financial advising firm to facilitate borrowing for them. Reference Link
Short Short Short
Churn Churn Churn
Buy Buy Buy
Churn Churn Churn
Give it 2 weeks
Hey TraderCaddy,
Any ideas what sponsor logo I can replace on my visor this weekend?
Narrowing choices these days.
VS
I was just thinking that since we have all embraced the new socialist regime, that we should pay whatever we feel in our heart is right for the PPT service. I think this is why THE FLY is being so coy about the price, he wants THE PEOPLE to decide. Well done Comrade FLY!
If you watch CNBC later on today, after the Q/A crap all the journalists and the Fed guys including Bernanke are going to all sit in a circle and play duck duck goose.
Fly, I am buying now. I can hedge. But if you are the crazy man that is psychologically connected to this Matrix, then buy cheaper.
I am not buying companies that rely on the poser rich. I have watched entire ski towns remake themselves for the poser rich, and this year they are empty. Posers!
Like I said only fools trade this market. The FLY is no fool. You need to wait until we see a Surprise Catilast before trading up or down. I don’t think it will come from the US Government.
“since we have all embraced the new socialist regime, we should pay whatever we feel in our heart is right for the PPT service”
Isn’t it from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs? If so, Fly will be giving the PPT away for free to almost every douchebag on Wall Street, or at least CNBC.
A fortune cookie to GS and I will extend my death-to-DRYS-financed polar domination of the south to control over my own aurora coriolanus.
Braveflaps next prey: the savage Narwhal.
Your tusk is mine, bitch!
Elevator down please.
I need to catch a flight to a romanian bucket shop
that Marx quote is a fake
Fuck you free loaders.
PPT is priced between 29-49 per month, depending on duration of sign up.
Your invoices will arrive shortly.
Fly:
Can you consider a comment posting tax, where funds can be provisioned to help those less fortunate traders pay their PPT subscription fee?
Yes Vijay.
How about Fuji Water.
I can see the commercial now.
Vijay drinks Fuji.
Or how about iBankCoin as a sponsor. Put a Fly on your cap and the iBankCoin logo on your bag.
Take the financials out of the S&P 500 and what’s left currently trades at 8.8x PE. Stay away from the financials and buy the rest.
Mao Mao Mao Muh Mao Mao Muh Mao
I fucking RULE at duck duck goose…watch out bitchez!
Gasparino was good for some coin today. Shorted GS at $84.20.
Fly, Do you have a PPT version for DUMB ASS’S such as myself. I rarely enter on the right side of a trade. If anyone has any sugestions as to where I should learn from. Please let me know.
Thanks in advance.
Although the sentiment behind the Marx quote is correct, I believe the quote itself has been debunked elsewhere, i.e. someone made this shit up, like a Nostradamus prophecy after 9/11.
he fly i have a software (RNG – random number generator) that will work as well as PPT (or any other random number generator) to generate random numbers. Just tell me the range – what is it from 0 to 5? or from -5 to +5?
WTF Chart is back!?!?!?
Govy fuckery hour … courtesy of TARP
Will it be a full blown WtF chart or the LOL chart ?
developing /…..
Apologies for linking to a Doug Kass article, and deeper apologies for linking to that herpes simplex 2.0 of financial bloggery, li’l jim cramer, but this “piece” might represent the thinking of those who think differently than our esteemed host.
Caveat 1) – Fly has kicked Kass’s ass both last year and ytd.
Caveat 2) – Kass called a bottom in US equities — for the year — on 2/12.
His bottom line: “To conclude, the lowering of the bar could be closer than many think, but the path to reach it remains icy, so investors should still tread carefully.
Despite the fear and loathing on the part of investors, I am beginning to find value and, for the first time in several years, I am in a (slightly) net long position.
Gun to my head, my baseline expectation is that the S&P could end up with a mid- to high-single-digit return for the full year, or about 15% above current levels.
Many stocks will rise more dramatically.
Color me a bit more bullish.”
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10464211/1/kass-fear-and-loathing-on-wall-street.html
@ Newbie
Do you really have this random generator?
I’m actually looking for one, seriously…
Short some more here. *yawn* this is so predictable. Off to drink some rich mans whiskey. Probably end up with under 6 digit gain today.
TheArtist:
I’m very big in SWHC ahead of earning which i believe are 3/5.
I dont want to be too long into the number but right now large!
to Anonymous: 🙂
i program in unix and there are standard unix calls to generate random numbers. I am just skeptical about any “proprietary” indicators and laugh when hear that people are ready to pay money for them. $30 bucks for some numbers arriving to your mail box? If indicator fails for a subscriber – will fly refund the fees? Who will refund the losses?
Newbie, who refunds losses from trading accounts? Nobody.
You are paying for information. You may use it as you see fit.
I have never heard the PPT described as a “proprietary indicator.”
I understand your point, but it is the same as criticizing a car that you have never taken for a test drive, or even seen, for that matter.
^^^
(Edit) Wood knows the PPT and said it better.
true that Cigur I’ve said before It’s the decisions you make not the information your given.
CAP autofellates in a Snuggie.
Look at the PPT this way. Previously you had no one to blame when you ran up those $10000s losses trading stocks. Now when you lose $10000s you can blame it on PPT. Wifey asks ‘how the hell did you lose $30k last week’ You can reply ‘it wasn’t me, it was the PPT’
See PPT is definitely worth its $25-50 monthly costs. Now you have someone to blame for losing all that money. Hope this helped 🙂
Amazing amount of people are still in a different world.From Footnoted:
While some companies seem to be curtailing their use of the corporate jet over concerns over how that might look, footnoted frequent flyer Qwest (Q) just signed another agreement with CEO Ed Mueller to let him continue using the company’s two planes for the next two years.
The agreement, which was included in the 10K that Qwest filed late Friday, isn’t all that different from the one signed two years ago — the one that allowed Mueller’s family, including his step-daughter to use the plane to commute back and forth to high school. Back then, footnoted readers voted that disclosure as the worst footnote of 2007. Qwest’s stock has fallen about 50% since.
PPT is not the holy grail, idiot. It is best used as a utility.
There are no short cuts. But it certainly helps.
Fuck you and your unix bullshit.
I feel like Im strapped in a broke down car staring at a traffic light.. Red/Green/Red/Green
Marx knows….
This intraday bullshit is making me bald.
Recent history teaches us that the only people who have a God-given right to be indemnified against their own disastrous decisions are the Dick Fulds of our financial system.
And you’re not a Dick, are you, Newbie?
Hey CAP:
Now, heads of state who ride and wrangle
Who look at your face from more than one angle
Can cut you from their bloated budgets
Like sharpened knives through chicken mcnuggets
(Shut the fuck) up
Yo, shut the fuck up
(Shut the fuck)
Right, right, learn to buck up
(Shut the fuck)
Right, shut the fuck up, hey, ho
(Shut the fuck)
Now, now learn to buck up
well, it is an indicator – it spits out numbers and buy/sell recommendations based on those numbers. And it is not “public” so it is “proprietary indicator”.
Also, if i had something that helps me make money – i would guard it and never sold it to the public. Instead i would use it in my own trades. If you sell it to loosers (sorry, to “subscribers”) who are ready to pay for it monthly – it means that brings you more profit than simply using it for your own trades.
Buy LOPE ahead of earnings tomorrow LIKE NOW while it’s under 18 IDIOTS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Did anyone make over $100 today day-trading?
Newbie:
That’s because you’re an idiot and do not respect the laws of multiplication. With your logic, nothing would ever be sold, since all creators would just hoard shit for themselves.
LOL
I actually need to create one for our option assignments…need the accounts randomly picked.
Currently 100% cash
This market is way too tough to play
Hope you’re better at the unix than you are at the English.
Not just the writing, but with the comprendo, friendo.
fly do not be such an old suckah! recently you were only loosing with your stupid US down/China up trade, reversing at pivot points… “Utility”? are you mf kidding me? monthly fee? yeah, right.
Hey, can you make me a favor? whats PPT numbers on BLAH (substitute with any other ticker)? Oh, they are 2.3; 1.17; 3.15 and the overall grade is 2.17? Great! Thank you! Thats all i needed to know! Really!
I think Leonard the Monkey owns the franchise on the random stock picks.
to Anton: ha-ha-ha, very smart spelling in your post! you impressed me and few other readers!
I lost on nothing. My FXI/CHL buys all finished in the green.
Clearly, I do not like you. As a result, you shall be banished.
Good Day
God I hope we finish + in each index
newbie=commen sense dude
Tanks (sic), Nooby (sic), it (sic) jus (sic) noing (sic) dat (sic) ewe (sic) kare (sic) wut (sic) make (sic) awl (sic) duh (sic) difernz (sic).
Shut up newbie.
where are you thinking XOM can go from here? looks like massive top on monthly chart.
Just so anyone is clear, any random number generated in any operating system is not random but, pseudo random.
Therefore, any (p)RNG would not come close to the ‘randomness’ of the market in the first place.
*note, I don’t believe that the market is random anyways.