I love how these failed CEO’s defend their equity by citing their industries “replacement cost,” in an effort to justify their stocks valuation.
With that logic, the “replacement cost” of SIRI must be in the billions. After all, acquiring a kick ass radio personality must be in the $500 million range, right?
Wrong.
No one gives a shit about your fucking satellites.
I was just listening to an interview with the CEO of MOS. He was incredibly bearish on the demand/supply situation, regarding his companies products, citing “warehouses full” of potash. He said his company has 4-5 weeks of supply on hand, and nowhere to sell his shit, due to nonexistent demand.
Then he rambled on talking about “replacement cost” as the only viable reason to own his companies stock. What a joke.
Personally, I sold out of most of my FXI/CHL, saying “goodbye” to Chinese fuckery for good. Moreover, I am done with YZC and WX. I kept BUCY, MT and JRJC, while buttressing my cash position.
Essentially, and most unfortunately, “The Fly” has not been capitalizing on this disaster. As a matter of fact, I’ve been slowly bleeding out, losing 1% here, 2% there. Year to date, I am still up around 5-6%, but it should be a lot more.
Now, the first mistake I made was going long into this crock of shit. I do not want to compound the error by potentially selling at the bottom, then turning around and shorting at the top.
So, my game plan is simple: get small and let my current shorts do their work.
I will sell off enough longs so that my DUG/ERY/EEV positions can “work their magic.” I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the S&P is heading for 740 within days. With that being said, XOM is days away from being routing, in a very non friendly sort of way.
Bottom line: Taking losses on longs. Building up cash to 50%+. Letting existing short positions “work their magic.”
I’m I the fist[sic] poster?
If we break 740 , look out below.
Now, the fist mistake….didnt know, hum.
If this market makes a run into the close, I will short more. We’ll have another big gap down tomorrow and plenty of downside. All the longs are firmly trapped in the funnel.
I can help you work your magic! The stock market is full of magic and illusion! Weeee!
Fly,
Do you think this is a bad time to initiate new shorts, or fuck with the inverse ETFs? Are we about to get a brief bounce?
Also, Gio posted that the PPT was newly bullish on EGO and TEVA.
Any thoughts on those?
dug is always good
buy some stocks and do some STROKIN.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGVnH39UzI8
Fly-
I knew it was a mistake for you to drop you bearish stance a few weeks ago and look for a bullshit rally. Change your header to reflect the current trend. The future holds lower stock prices.
We have not yet seen massive capitulation by the bulls. Many of them still believe that some how the government will come in and save their ass. Once we break the lows and see another panic then we may see capitulation. IMO around S&P 660-650. I stay bearish until then looking for shitty companies like KIM and VNO to attack. Commercial RE is fucked. The government is going to shoot their entire wad at residential RE and look past the big pile of shit in Commercial RE. Trillions of dollars in shitty CMBS losses to hit the fan. Stay tuned
Any thoughts on selling crude PUT options?
DTO on fire
Anyone has the link to the interview with MOS CEO? Thx
it was on bloomberg radio
double post
Fly, I have no idea why you were long China. That shit needs shorting. I live in Thailand, this place is supremely fcuked, locals here used to earn 140 U$D per month assembling Honda and Toyotas for the US market. Most of them are laid off. Asia is fcuked, China is no better than Japan, its a basket case.
I saw the MOS ceo, total mongoloid, I got short MOS at 46 last week. I’ll cover at 36.50.
just saying ….
How serious are you about a 740 S&P w/ in days?
Even with all the bad news from international sources and the massive criminal screw ups by our own guys….I dont think that is the main reason the markets want to go lower.
I think the markets (we the traders in the markets) have lost all confidence in Geitner, Obama and the Congress. Timmay’s stupid speech last week and the Congress rushing through a pork bill they didnt even bother to read, Obama leaving town on vacation….are just nails in the coffin of any rally.
A week or so ago there was a ‘ rally sentiment’ in the market hence that is why Fly went long. People were hopeful a plan had been constructed and was about to be implemented. We just got SCREWED and so we are pissed….
Not sure what they can do now to make it right again.
.
Adding DHI to my IRA.
W.C. — I checked the MOS website. They present at a Morgan Stanley investor conference tomorrow. You can access it via their website. It starts at 2:20 EST. You’ll probably hear much of what Fly heard today.
FLY has pretty much nailed what Prokopanko said, theres no need to hear it again becuase it was mostly horsehit.
predict: SP500 at 780 by the close today.
TC,
i bought some dhi earlier today.
Brit Trash…
Would you mind adding “pip pip cheerio” to the end of your posts? Thanks.
Sully
Rally monkey sighted.
Oh my:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/17/chimpanzee-attack-usa
Only fools trade this type of market.
http://www.raptureready.com/featured/graham/g59.html
how many billions is Warren Buffet down this year?
Fly, are u still holding ACM?
mrkcbill got fired from the M&M factory for throwing out all the “W”s
Such nervous , ridiculous , unneccessary, badly delivered banter, joking within minutes of spending unprecedented amount of coin. Biden is the puppet of a puppeteer moron. These heads will go down as chimps chewing wildly on the flesh of their own kind.
well….there we go ……
.
Obama Rally anyone? I’d say we’re due.
Did Obama just win an Academy award? WTF is he doing?
Death Priest – the Obama rally occurs in reverse. Hence the ‘rally’ will take us to Dow 5000 S&P 500. All Hail HObama !
Hooray…I’m saved.
TheArtist:
He’s still campaigning.
lol.. Obama win an academy, nice one.
Jed works weekends as a Costco Sampler
celebrity… talk, talk, talk… clap, clap, clap…
Fly, I saw the interview with the guy from MOS, and think you need to replay it and think about it.
He was talking about price in relation to assets as a valuation metric, something that the price will have a relationship with over time. Similary to a price/book ratio, but in the case of potash and nitrates, it’s easier to know what you actually have than it is with holding financial issues on the books.
In no way was he trying to say “replacement cost” was the only viable reason to own his stock. More like, “the valuation here is out of sync.” Of course, cheap can always get cheaper …
Drawing the comparison to SIRI is funny, but beside the point. “Talent” is just as ephemeral as a Moody’s AAA rating, it seems, but material goods are still easier to price than CDS are.
He also said that he, as a manager, is primarily concerned with product. He said he’ll concentrate on the product and you can explain why the stock is trading where it is. Which is actually a rare attitude in management these days.
solar powered beer kegs for all working americans!
change you can believe in!
Does it have the feel of a pep rally at the school that has the worst team getting ready to play the best team and all the cheering in the world won’t change the outcome of the game. Yaayy!!!!
This precipice market sucks.
is there something to be learned from his talk today? what we are witnessing at this moment is buying by the members of the community reality group. Soon the members of the reality community group will be selling.
NAMASTE everyone !
We are all going to join hands after our yoga class and chant NAMASTE! NAMASTE!
“I honor that place in you where the whole Universe resides. And when I am in that place in me and you are in that place in you, there is only one of us.”
Where’s my Chi Tea???? We are all so happy because we are entering the golden age, the new age…..spend spend spend…on a dream, a vision…
Think I will go turn on Star Trek the Next Generation to continue this wonderful feeling.
.
Chivas- I believe we did good.
Well at least he didnt say “depression” this time. He’s a fast learner.
toodle pip.
Remote control fart machines for all american workers!
It’s not DEVILDOG’s fault
http://www.physorg.com/news154101338.html Blame his aggressive parents.
FAS dropping below $6 into the 5s just like I said it would. LMAO . XLF breaking down. its over !
TC,
LOL. i believe you’re right. also own len and xhb.
Fas goes green this week..
Three months ago I didn’t believe in the plunge prevention team. But it’s SO obvious now that someone significantly manipulates the market at this time of the day.
Its called PPT 2.0 punks
of fucking course
Chivas-
I bought ITB (homie etf)last week @ 8.80 and 8.48 and plan to hold for awhile.
You and I are the only ones in America who own homies.
WOW! Here we go again?
UnFUCKINGbelievable.
As far as I can see everything done so far has been designed to cover up for the people who created this mess. They have tried to disguise it as a rescue, bailout and as a stimuless but the purpose was always the same; so that the people responosible, namely the private banks, insurance and mortgage companys, the beaurocratic and the political will not be held in any way accountable for their actions. They first robbed the middle class of everything they owned, now they have robbed them of even what they don’t own in the form of huge personal debt that will be paid by future generations. All so that those responsible will never have to face justice for their actions. The idea that the solution is to somehow trick or cajole the deeply indebted middle class to spend their way out of this situation is simply absurd.
I was excited when Obama was elected. I thought, perhaps naively, that he would run things differently and make real change but it is now obvious that he is not equipped to deal with the problems he inheireted. He just doesn’t get it.
WTF pattern is BACK!!
Precisely 30 mins before the close.
Short this WTF pattern. its doesn’t work. it will fail tomorrow. C’mon you sheep. You know this WTF will fail by tomorrow. Why bother going long here. Add to your shorts. Grow some balls. Short some more.
Been looking at KBH, PHM and USG myself …. why such an early commitment to DHI? USG seems to cover the sector without being specific … thoughts?
Lady G – your comments become more and more entertaining approaching fly’s daily rumbling. Do you have a blog? I would switch to reading your creative pieces.
TC,
that we are the only ones is ok with me. lol. do you think it is because of our age? lol.
i own quite a bit of those names. in the case of len, i have known the family for some time.
Just for Fun …. nice pick with MYRG, missed the big move up and waiting for a little more pullback …. MTZ ok in same space.
Perhaps not. See ya later WTF Pattern!
See the PPT was trying to steal my money. I shorted some more on that fake bounce. Not covering my shorts.
Chivas- I did real property law in Miami in the late ’70s and recall LEN when it was small back then.
E8- DHI has beens a leader since the earnings report. Appears to have plenty of cash, etc. TOL may be worth a look. These homie stocks will turn up 6-9 months before we actually see positive housing data. Seen it before (but could be wrong, time will tell). Still daytrading them mostly.
Capitulation Tom. Be prepared!
I’m starting to like the PPT.
Just jump on at 3:30, and jump off at 3:45
to Lady G. Says:
Lady G – your comments become more and more entertaining approaching fly’s daily rumbling. Do you have a blog? I would switch to reading your creative pieces.
February 17th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Whoever you are ( I appreciate you are not willing to use your real nickname for fear of ridicule) That is the nicest thing anyone has ever said to me on this blog. Thanks I appreciate it. The only other time anyone ever said anything nice to me was Sr Fly himself when he told me I had a ‘nice post’ and then put it in the ‘ Epic Quotes’ Section.
I use to have a blog and a message board where I would daily chew up New Agers,as well as Messiah wanna bees, and other people venturing into my world. I dont have it anymore. It was a result of a book I had on the market- I took that off as well.
I am gracing Fly’s blog now…much to the dismay of almost every one here….as they all hate me.
Thanks for the compliment whoever you are. I am off to visit with my parents and take care of them.
.
TC, I agree … I remember after the S&L debacle my broker trying to put me into PHM and I thought he was nuts but sure as shit that bugger led the charge when the market turned.
what a wonderful day……..
see you guys and gals tomorrow…….
off to drink some single malt…..
Fuck your stupid “signing” rally.
I SEE DEAD COWS.
Hang from the slaughter house ceiling over night and bleed…STUPID COWS.
MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Shamwow, look at the volume on the SPY LAST MINUTE
28.5 MILLION, WTF.
Lady G,
I like you.
“I am gracing Fly’s blog now…much to the dismay of almost every one here….as they all hate me.”
I’m one of those people
Ban Lady G please
PLEASE Shut the Fuck up DEVILDOG.
Either post some picks, research, numbers or facts or even a readable opinion for once, or shut up. I am almost a permabear and I am sick of seeing “I SEE DEAD COWS” or “STUPID COWS” every damm 2 hours on here. There are a lot of bearish people here, and a lot of bearish people in the world, Fund Managers, IVB’s and they don’t write this crap. You make us look bad.
Or maybe I should write this in your native tongue:
MOOOO BAAAAAA MOOOOOOO I SEE CRAP WRITTEN EVERYTIME YOU POST MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BWAAAAAAA MOOOOOO
FLY you nailed it!! ….Sad to say, but nailed it none the less.
“I love how these failed CEO’s defend their equity by citing their industries “replacement cost,” in an effort to justify their stocks valuation.
With that logic, the “replacement cost” of SIRI must be in the billions. After all, acquiring a kick ass radio personality must be in the $500 million range, right?
Wrong.
No one gives a shit about your fucking satellites.”
What I mean to say is who gives a flying rat’s a** about Sirius. Who NEEDS it. Does it really after all things are considered add to our quality of life. You could say the same for “junk” makers like Sony, Nintendo, and the rest of the video game crowd. Sure they sell a lot of crap and the youngsters would scream bloody murder if you took it away but is it NEEDED. A resounding H*** NO! There are so many products marketed today that are simply peripheral to existence that a year after they are gone virtually no one will know or care. I think a large part of the world, and especially Americans are beginning to tumble to that realization.
I’m certainly no expert in the markets but I observe human nature rather keenly and I think we as a nation are in a period of redefinition as to what is actually needed, what is truly right, and what truly adds to the quality of our lives………God help us all if we don’t get it figured out.
BTW…the bailouts and stimulus package fit none of those defining points. They are not going to help because deep down I think the majority of Americans knew that our economy was an artificially built house of cards waiting for a strong wind.
Thanks again for an entertaining (if nothing else) blog