I wanted to take a “time out” from end of the world proceedings to let you bastards know, in case you live under a heavy rock, President Obama just escalated the war in Afghanistan, by 50%, prior to reducing our forces in Iraq.
I would link to another bloggers take on this quiet event. However, everyone seems to have their fucking heads up their asses, when it comes to the “War on Terror.”
Back to your regularly scheduled end of the world coverage.
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Makes sense, Taliban is in Afghanistan and border of Pakistan. We’re finally focusing on the right place. How many Iraqis on the 9/11 planes? Zero.
Were never leaving the Middle East.
AVAV
DCP
LLL
HAL
ATK
are a few.
Too busy watching Buffett rearrange the BRK deck chairs to care.
Watcher.
Sure bud. Whatever you say.
It’s like fighting to keep of wall of shit from collapsing. Sending more troops to Afghanistan is equal to bailing out the banks.
We should slash and burn. Fuck all of this nation building.
So what are you saying Fly, bring everyone home? Don’t you think there would be absolute chaos left in the vacuum?
I agree with da Fleaster … fuck defending the empire abroad while it crumbles on the homefront.
i think what he’s saying is to nuke the fucking place. i almost agree with that.
The world is already in chaos.
Fly
Can we have one of your uplifting threads? The recent ones have sent me near suicide.
I started a pair trade at the close, short oil companies, long oil via long DUG/USO. What say you Senora Tropicana
My current pair trade is short everything, long canned goods and bags of rice.
Watcher, Re:”Makes sense, Taliban is in Afghanistan and border of Pakistan. We’re finally focusing on the right place. How many Iraqis on the 9/11 planes? Zero.”
Shouldn’t the question be: How many Saudis were on the 9/11 planes? (Ans. Lots, but I guess they’re too buddy-buddy with the US oligarchy to be condemned for it. Better to go after the weak/duped, but oil rich, and leave those responsible alone because they own 6% of the US.)
Just got back from an enlightening lecture from Dr. Elihu Goldratt, of “The Goal” fame, if you ever took a business operations class.
The hall was jammed and the good doctor (he is a physicist by training) was extremely entertaining.
He mapped out a couple of points, including showing why many of the recent job cuts — especially in Japan — were unnecessary and may be detrimental to the companies who took them.
— He also showed why certain OEM component makers were off so much in sales in November December (causing many of them to panic and cut employees, but not his clients).
— He said the financial crisis was important, but not insurmountable. The actual damage to world GDP will likely only be a reduction in growth, not an actual negation (although he did say the US would be down about 1-2%).
— Interestingly, he said he almost guaranteed a rampant global inflation, but that he was unconcerned. “So what?” he said. In a relative currency environment, its not inflation, but jobs that are important to an economy. (Not so sure I completely agree on this one.
— Most important, he said we (as business people) are in one of the most opportune moments in history, and we are liable to miss it if we allow ourselves to get into a hizzy over fear of worldwide Depression.
— He explained WHY we are at this opportune moment by showing two graphs. One of the Chinese economy’s growth over the last thirty years and one of the Indian economy’s growht over the last ten.
— He then laid a line showing the two above countries’ WAGE growth. THIS was the important factor, as it showed EXPONENTIAL growth even over the rapid 7-10% average growth of those two economies. Example… ten years ago, average wages in China were equal to those of Egypt ($600 per annum). Today they are $3,000. If that rate continues, China will surpass the U.S. in avg wages in ten years.
— He showed the same exponential wage growth in India, and said EVEN if we do not extrapolate (and he went OFF on extrapolation, calling it the bane of analysis) these trends because of slow down, we are still WITNESSING one of the greatest phenonmena in economic history — that of a 2 billion head population transforming from a producer society (Chindia together) into a CONSUMER society.
Our greatest challenge — as Americans, (he said, even though he is Israeli he identifies with ‘the most moral nation, America’) so there Phil 😉 — is to MAKE Certain that we do not get cut out of that consumer loop by being TOO FAR from that consumer pool — ie, six weeks by boat.
— All in all, a very interesting lecture… one of the most interesting I’ve been to since business school with Ken French.
Fly, you might be dumping Chindia too early ovah heah.
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There are those who clearly think the foreign occupation of Afghanistan is a good idea. So did the Greeks. So did the British. So did the Russians. The fact is that once the population agrees that the occupying forces are detrimental to the population, Afghan history shows that foreign occupation is a physical impossibility. The terrain and caves make this possible and they are good at using their terrain to wear down foreign occupiers. Sounds like another way to chew up Americans.
The Taliban did not attack the world trade center. It was an ex-trainee of the CIA named Osama. A war against an emotion is a war against a human trait in general. If we are going in, lets get Congress to approve a declaration of war on Afghanistan. Play by the rules, respect the constitution, and do what’s right. Is that so hard?
Finally, where’s the payoff? It had better not be the heroin. I have kids.
It is sort of difficult to civilize people who cut each other’s heads off and become human bombs. We cannot afford to play world policeman. Too bad Iraq has all that oil – it complicates matters. It has been longer than WW2. The Russians are very brutal in dealing with the terrorist types and believe in killing them all.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7895951.stm
Nuke what? There’s nothing there but rocks.
We achieved victory in WW2 by bombing the shit out of everthing the Germans had, including the cities. Take out the infrastructure and 1st world people get miserable real quick(no heat ,no electricity,flush the toilet and nothing happens,bridges gone,railways gone,no food, no clean water,etc.)
These people have none of those amenities so there’s nothing to take away. They don’t have a currency to debase,they dont have an economy to ruin,they have no cities or infrastructure to destroy. You can take their lives, but that’s helping them to achieve one of their goals(martyrdom).You kill them and you just turn them into a hero in the eyes of everyone they know.It’s endless.
The US is held to such a ridiculous standard when it comes to applying military force, it makes it almost impossible to quickly achieve real victory. We have to fight some overly-sanitized,Saturday morning cartoon version of war where no one is hurt,killed,or offended.So really,how do you win?
Let that whole part of the world revert back to the 13th century,which they seem to want anyway. Restrict immigration to non-muslim only. This will never happen,therefore,we’ll be fighting those assholes for the forseeable future. Political correctness is their best weapon. In the long run it will be more successful than anything we’re using on them.
My current pair trade is short everything, long canned goods and bags of rice.
Don’t forget the wood screws, or they’ll be no “pleasure” in it.
________________
Shouldn’t the question be: How many Saudis were on the 9/11 planes?
Answer, all but one, who was an Egyptian mofo. Another ally, in case you were counting. I recommend Lawrence Wright’s “The Looming Tower” for an explanation of this fuckery.
Fact is, there were no Afghans or Pakis on those hit squads, and that’s who’s going to get deaded here, for the most part. So save us the moral outrage. Hussein was bad news, and good riddance to women-raping, man-torturing nuke-conniving fuckrags, may we off some more of them ASAP.
You think a stable Iraq is not an important thing? You don’t read history much. A stable Iraq is as — if not MORE — important than a stable Germany was back in 1945.
Especially as a buffer state. Look that one up too, Kissinger.
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omfgitsjd, well written.
It was an ex-trainee of the CIA named Osama.
Wrong. The CIA part, I mean.
Again, read some history, it’s actually out there, and it’ll tell you when and where and even why Osama was in Afghan and in other places.
And stay off the lefty dimwit sites, they’re like cotton candy I know, but they rot your brain, instead of your toofuses.
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The Money Hole- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnX-D4kkPOQ
These people have none of those amenities so there’s nothing to take away.
We’re not bombing their cities, we’re directly chasing them in their hidey holes. We can do that, since technology had advanced a pinch since the British Raj days.
Odd, no?
Let’s not build straw men on top of everything else. Fact is, we’re mostly nuking Talibaddies in very precise actions, but the real treasure is in Pakistan, and no, not their cities either.
We needed Obama to get Osama, cause Bush in Pakistan is an equation that just doesn’t work in the “Ohmigod isn’t Amerika so turrible” parts of the benighted world.
Like San Francisco.
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Off topic observation here…………
Timmy G gave his big presentation and the market tanked about 300 points, Obama signed his package today, gave a little pep talk and the market drops another 300 or so. One would think the DC crowd would get the message that no one believes them, no one believes their “remedies” will do any good and best of all nearly everyone considers them and their machinations to be superfluous.
Usama or Osama or whatever the fuck his name is is a coward. He is responsible for lighting the fuse to this whole war. I don’t believe that we are trying to occupy Afghanistan and in fact would like to get out. The base problem is the stupid stuff called islam. The whole matter is too much for the average citizen – the freaking government is supposed to take care of these things……….unless they are incompetent.
Jake
Your Dr friend sounds like a regular low moron.
NEGATIVE 6 percent gdp for q1 is a foregone conclusion. To say we will only dip 1-2 is sheer stupidity.
@jakegint
I just dont see how it ends.Its like killing an ant colony one at a time. What happens when their hidey-holes are villages full of women and kids? We already know how Obama feels about bombing villages, right?
FLY,PPT on ACM?Thanks
Does anybody else have concerns about an imminent complete social collapse?
I mean how can any sane human being have any confidence in this current leadership in washington?
Fuck man I’m out of character here but FUCK man
Thanks for passing on the lecture notes, Jake.
That’s the closest thing I’ve seen to a positive business story since Denny’s did their Grand Slam Breakfast giveaway.
iTunes has a ton of free college lectures and such on their site and I’ll look for (possible future Bond villain) Dr. Goldratt there.
BTW, those righty websites will rot your brain, too. Even tho Limbaugh had that boil on his neck lanced with a cochlear implant, it’s still oozing bile.
Got to protect the poppy fields for pappy for the spring harvest
I am far to the right of Limbaugh and I don’t believe Nancy Pelosi and her ilk will save us from islamic terrorists. Clinton was watching a golf tournament one afternoon on tv when they sought his permission to take out binny Laden with a cruise missle. That dumb fuck is responsible for much of our current problems.
The extra troops are likely for Iran, as Israelis are already conducting assassinations within Iran.
http://www.1057thebull.com/pages/newsheadlines.html?feed=104668&article=5024894
Once the Bushehr reactor goes online (soon), some sort of strike on Iran will likely commence.
http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=42523
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-02/05/content_10770718.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEhsjAcGayA&eurl=http://www.prisonplanet.com/unearthed-1998-video-stimulus-bill-fulfills-obama%e2%80%99s-dream-to-repeal-clinton-welfare-
Here’s how your debt slave children’s future will be spent:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/STIMULUS_FINAL_0217.html
Kill all the bankers & the terrorists won’t have a reason to hate us. Both problems solved.
BTW, those righty websites will rot your brain, too.
Fly’s website is pretty much the only one I attend, though I do check Gary Savage’s* as well. Is this site “righty?”
Perhaps.
I do my sourcework the old fashioned way. I research the shit myself, and don’t take anyone’s word for it unless it’s been corroborated by credible sources.
That lines out any blog work, unless credibly sourced, so why go to the middle man?
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*Aside — I keep telling Fly to tab Gary Savage’s Smart Money trader here, then I don’t have to go anywhere else.
I can take that room in the basement with the half lav.
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Hey, I can’t quite believe I am wrting this, but I think I agree with DD!
(US) Professors Nouriel Roubini and Matthew Richardson comment on the US banking system – WSJ
– Says Treasury Sec Geithner’s plan does have a silver lining.
– Says the Geithner plan lacks details, but it is clear that it won’t propose more bank “freebies”
– Says the reality is that Geithner is going to confirm the insolvency of the financial system.
– Says once we face this truth, there really is not much left to do but nationalize.
– Says we are not talking about the government operating banks for the long-term, but an orderly clean up, then reselling the banks to private investors.
Kill ALL THE BANKERS. DEVILDOG I agree with that. This is not over till the bankers die. I don’t want any pussy punishments like a wrist slap and 5 yrs. I want bullet to the head, noose around the neck type deals. Appoint me executioner and I will command the guillotines and remove the heads of Fuld, Mozilo, Cayne, Greenspan, Paulson, Prince, Weill, Thain and all the rest of those criminals. The only way for the US of A to move forward is via the blood of 10,000 criminal bankers.
I’ll tell you one truth about these bankers of ours. They have no loyalty to this country. If the US collapses they will take their scam to another country. They worship money. That’s their god. Fuck them all.
Jake – Lefty sites, righty sites, all bullshit. I’d no more go to the Daily Koz than watch Bill O’Reilly. Fly’s joint is above that shite.
BTW, remarkably few of us in San Francisco hate America, despite the stereotype, just as few of the people in your neck of the woods are toothless hicks.
But on the idiot political spectrum, Berkeley makes me want to vomit/call in an air strike near my own position.
I’m a headin’ for cali-fornia.
…oh wait, they’re fucked too.
shit.
I’m still in shock and awe that we have an undeclared war on a human emotion. Talk about a ponzi scheme. It’s a whole new realm of insanity. How about a War on Hate, a War on Fear, a War on Greed.
Fuck, let’s just declare a War on Clarity and see if we can confuse things further.
“Fuck, let’s just declare a War on Clarity and see if we can confuse things further.”
Too late – war over – Clarity lost
Been drinking some Alberta Premium rye whiskey. Mmmm.
Nyways, I sold half my DUG today. Plan to ride the rest to $30. I’m pretty sure it will get there. And WTI oil will probably hit about $20/bbl within 6 weeks.
The whole thing about douchehead going on about Saudi’s or Chinese cornering the gold market = total red herring.
First, freedom of speech is okay. Even if you disagree. Second, His statements were completely useless bullshit. I’m related to the Hunt brothers who tried to corner the silver market.
Here’s what would happen if Saudi tried it:
Price of gold goes up, every country with mines owned by Barrick gold and friends changes their royalty rate to get a “fair share” for their citizens. Just like when oil and gas prices take a climb. The governments start to get itchy/greedy and re-neg all their former agreements. If that isn’t enough to cause this approach to fail, then suddenly every mine and prospect out there that is marginally economic now would suddenly have tons of investors flocking to get some production going. And they would, and the price would change back downward. What would the Saudi’s do then? Buy up every shitty marginal mine in the world? Nope. But even let’s say that they did do that. What is gold used for? Over 90% of all gold currently produced is used for jewellery. FUCKING JEWELERY!!! Only 10% is for industrial usage. So they spent a fortune on something that is now worth about the same amount as the islamic (Wahabi) religion.
Get her a platinum setting, or silver, or rhodium, or rhenium, or whatever else rare and interesting metal you choose. If gold’s just sitting in a vault it only has value because people think it should.
Yes there is historical precident for gold having intrinsic value. It’s been used as money for thousands of years. Aaron’s calf in the bible was a long freakin time ago, and most of the world thinks gold has value. It doesn’t matter whether you realize that it’s true value is not very great or not. If the most people in the world think it has value then it does.
That is unless of course someone tries to hold the world ransom with it. Then governments can say fuck you. Now we are going to introduce a rhenium or uranium backed currency, and educate our people to understand why (especially with uranium).
I’d rather have a good life somewhere that I can grow food than a shitty one in a desert, surrounded by idiots, with a basement full of “worthless” gold, and a backyard sprinkler that shoots crude oil.
By the way Devil Dog, I’m pessimistic about stocks in general, but not gold. It should go down but it won’t. Because most people watched Ducktales, and saw Scrooge McDuck swimming in Gold, and all societies, from top to bottom pretty much accept that gold has value for some reason while paper (or copper) does not.
JakeGint, totally agree with your assesment of Canada. It’s waaaayy too socialist. Just like America is becoming.
Lady G, People don’t hate you here. I appreciate your science fiction references, and honest questions/discussion, and confidence. Even if you are fluffy.
Whoever it was… I liked that link to the 200 year DJIA graph on log paper. Awesome. Do you have one of those for other countries too? How about for P/E ratios?
cheers.
End of boozed-up transmission from Mars.
Anton,
know what you mean about berkeley. my oldest son went there and graduated stanford med school.
We need to keep this ‘War on Terror’ going ‘cos if our troops came back home to this shit economy and fucked up country, they’d be pissed and start a revolution. Think about it, keeping our troops overseas keeps our politicians safe.
Chivas,
Don’t get me wrong, Berkeley is a top notch school academically. Tho I’d stay the hell away from the poli-sci building.
That’s a smart kid you got there. If I had it to do over, I’d have made a beeline for Stanford after high school. Great academics and athletics. I would have (edit) worked hard to make that baseball team.
Is your boy a doc out here or back in FL?
Listening to Van Morrison’s Pay the Devil and watching Kelly Slater rip some 20 foot faces. All the rest of this shit is meaningless. Most of the people on this site have more than enough money and their kids will have to figure it out. Some will do well and others will not; oh well, that is just how it goes regardless of what the government/bankers are doing or how hard you try to make it correct.
Anton,
he’s in denver, colorado. he’s a top researcher in the country for down syndrome. i am a proud dad.
http://garnerlab.stanford.edu/people/fernandez.html
“That is unless of course someone tries to hold the world ransom with it. Then governments can say fuck you. Now we are going to introduce a rhenium or uranium backed currency, and educate our people to understand why (especially with uranium).”
First of all congrats on the Alberta Rye Whiskey, it is a tasty treat. But only if you drink it with Coke, and that’s kind of a metaphor for Canadian/US relations, I think. The fuckers who drink it on the rocks or neat, are like people who walk without swinging their arms: you want to keep a fair distance.
As far as Uranium as a currency, interesting. But I wouldn’t want to keep it at my house, or in my pockets. I guess it would discourage greed as well, because if you stockpiled the shit…well, we all know what happened in Chernobyl.
Oh and socialism isn’t so bad. Ask Norwegians, Venezuelans, The Danes, The Dutch, The Finns, et al. But you need to get there by having decent, actually democratically elected leaders, not some BS polyarchy of the wealthy. These can take the royalties from your natural resources, invest them (wisely), and use the proceeds to fund your social programs (once again: See Norway). Oh wait that’s right, the US doesn’t produce anything but little bits of green paper with Novus Ordo Seclorum on one side and In GOd we Trust on the other. Hell, I’d take ONE, but just as a novelty…
Afagistan isn’t a real country, never was. Pakystan was a country for a while, but isn’t anymore. The US wants to kill a very small, specific group of assholes, but we’re pretending that we respect both nations and the fucking UN, so we don’t go after them eventhough they’re in the uncontrolled border region.
We should just roll in, kill the bad guys and leave. Whatever happens thereafter won’t even hit the newsreels in Turkey because no one cares.
When it comes to this..Fuckin A
There is nothing bettet than 30 B52s running a cycle, 20 B1s with rotatonal rounds ( ie, the combat commander can pick which ordinace we would like to use out of the belly of a B1) and for several B2’s to make a run from RCA to keep current training to beat someones ass to rocks from rocks… the ground kids NEVER EVER GO ALONE…if this is something we can use to get a BOOYA outta this country Fuckin A….Off to Mexico tomorrow…85 sunny an a chance of bullets….Fuckin A Make good trades this week..its cash preservation right now ,,,not winning…CYAL8RBYE….
Mustard seeds…former F4 RIO…….love to blow shit up for a Marine…I was USAF..I AM THE ZOO ANIMAL
Jakeint,
You remind me of one of those guys who studied too much in college and is addicted to Academia Kool Aid. He sounds like a Gary Watts clone..
Unfortunately, in the real world, things don’t quite work out the way the over educated think they will.
cigur and chivas,
94720 is the sh!t. but, i do concede that it churns out coin collecting “liberal” fairies.
fuck o’reilly and daily koz.
go bears,
jg
Hey Chivas,
And proud with good reason! That’s an impressive young man. I hope he doesn’t know his Dad spends part of his day visiting a site where “fucktard” is used more commonly than “dude,” lol.
My little sis is a pediatric neurologist with a PhD in chemistry. She’s doing epilepsy research, but ends up spending most of her time seeing epilepsy patients. I’ll ask her if she knows of Doctor Chivas, Jr.
Sierra,
You don’t do yourself any favors using “over educated” as a put-down.
Anton, believe me, it would be a pleasure to see Sierra and Jake go at it. I would learn a lot from it.
Sierra used to comment at the old blog and once had his own blog where he did fairly well predicting 1.5 years ago exactly what is happening right now.
There was a time when Sierra was a breakout trader just like the rest of us…He had some amazing calls/trades.
Anton,
thank you very much. you also have reason to be proud of your sister. do ask her if she knows my son.
lol. no he does not know where dad spends part of his day, although he would get a kick out of it. btw, he hates what i do for a living. go figure.
Woody,
i got some great news today. it was just approved by the fda. will start next week. will let you know details tomorrow by e-mail. i told Jake earlier tonight.
Chivas, do tell. Glad to hear good things are still finding you. You’ve been too quiet lately. Good to have you back.
Thanks, Woody. I actually had edited out something more cutting and am now glad I did. Just don’t like my sandbox pals getting sniped. But, like Santayana said, Those who do not know a website’s history are condemned to put their feet in their mouths.
Dont you guys know, osama is bk
Chivas,
Will check with Sis for sure.
Reading your message to Woody, I’ll be keeping a good thought. There are some amazing doctors out there doing incredible work. As you well know.
Anton, good point about website history. I see part of my role here as someone who attempts to maintain the valuable elements of culture that reside here as well as keeping it hospitable enough to encourage new contributions.
Woody –
…And helping the fucktards bank coin.
Don’t forget that part of your mission.
Okay, time for dinner. You gentlemen have a good night.
The Afghanistan troop built-up is a pretext for Pakistan. Therein lies some SERIOUS danger (much more so than Iran) and we want to be near it in case the radical freaks get near them Paki nukes or the pipeline inside Pakistan that keeps getting blown out by these freaks. If perchance we get some talibani freaks, it will be peripheral. That isn’t going to be our main aim there. We couldn’t care less about some 16th century lifestyle population with absolutely no means to harm us. Besides, the people who actually did hurt us are in Pakistan.
17,000 additional troops.
This is clearly a “I’m one tough mother” indicator by Bahama Mamma to show that he thinks he knows what he’s doing. (lose a few boys while your at it? No problem, bra)
That’s merely political collateral.
Just remember:
Change isn’t permanent, but change is.
Sierra, go blow a trailer whooah, eh?
I didn’t study for shit in college, and Elihu Goldratt is an internationally known business consultant to global Fortune 1000 co’s. He doesn’t do MHP’s so you probably haven’t heard of him, but don’t go assuming his advice isn’t practical or road tested.
Now go get ya shinebox.
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Anton- did not know you lived in San Fran, thought you was a Hollywood/Santy Barbery librul?
You’ll have to remind me to have my bro pick you up for loitering one of these slow nights…
____
Chivas:
I’m drawing the conclusion you have been ill? Lots of good thoughts going to you and hope, if my conclusion is correct, you make a fast recovery.
———–
Jake
the only problem with those charts extrapolating Ch and ind growth paths is that they simply aren’t linear.
I actually think the country people seem to simply avoid even thinking about is Mexico over the next 20/30 years or so.