Selling out, despite buying more earlier. Fuck it.
I sold it all, between $9.15-9.50
UPDATE: I will hold 90% of the proceeds in cash. With the other 10%, I will leg into more DUG, ERY, EEV and SRS.
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Fly,
Buying into FAZ??????
The Fly is good.
Fly, how was that crab quiche?
It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes.
Marlin where are you?
AXP is getting ready to hit 52 week low.
Fly be nimble, fly be quick
Who’s money are you managing anyway?
I think you mean Merlin.
BAC jumped off the cliff.
I prefer “Marilyn”
None of you clamjaphry of chamberers in your fretting frocks have a clue one about this market and you will all end up as griezies or shamocrats while I hochle babes with panshard.
How about those banks ? LMAO …..
watched over this thread just for few weeks and fully agree with someone else’s observation – FLY is late trend follower. Every time he bought FAS – it went down and every time he sold FAZ – it went up.
jibberish
90% CASH!?
BWHUHAHAHAHAH…Pusssiieeeeee…
You might as well go to Romania and milk goats…you can make more money that way.
BAC-teria filled two gaps today.
That’s a lot of work for an infection.
Give it some time to rest.
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I made 11 points on FAZ and .25 cents on FAS.
Shut the fuck up.
The pro-deli trade is working – DRI down 55 cents since I shorted it.
In other news, I am on the six floor of the local book depository with no Boar’s Head in sight…
None of you clamjaphry of chamberers in your fretting frocks have a clue one about this market and you will all end up as griezies or shamocrats while I hochle babes with panshard.
Now THAT’s what ahm TAWKIN’ aboud!
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Hey guys don’t worry. We tested 800 3 times and it held strong. Buy here and sell at 840!
In other news, I am on the six floor of the local book depository with no Boar’s Head in sight…
You know the man’s thing to do then. The honourable (sic) thing.
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Anon…its not crab quiche nor is it crab cakes Marylin or otherwise…. its crab bisque which is a thick soup generally made with congac or brandy, dry white wine, blue or dungeness crab, milk, butter etc…
I…survived…like the S&P…bouncing…off 500…
Also, you don’t need ‘sic’ in my (neighbour)’hood.
Best she-crab bisque available… at the resort store (made daily) on Kiawah Island.
No phaggy pimento and olive earl samiches though, unfortunately.
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Lady G, the crab quiche was just a little homo humor, get with the program.
Thanks, LG, the trading action is all well and good, but it’s the foodie tips that keep me coming back…
Jake, you probably caught it, but the hottie over the shoulder of the fat guy crying about the Giants loss is mouthing the words “big pussy” as she points at him.
Too funny.
This market has no idea what it wants to do! First my TNA is up then my BGZ is up, then they are down….back and forth….trading in a range
might as well talk about food, sports, anything else.
Hey how about that Murray upset by Verdasco? Its just what I thought…you cant call yourself a ‘ favorite’ until you win a slam. Go Roger!
.
Bennet Sedacca
12:35:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Booking some modest gains in equities…
…In IVW, IWW, USO, XLE, XLP.
I think this rally is a fake-out and a false breakout of 840 in Spooz.
If I am wrong, all I will have lost is some opportunity, not capital.
I believe that earnings estimate revisions will shock many as the year progresses.
Excess capital will be deployed in high coupon Mortgage Backed Securities that we believe are cheap and that expected high prepayment speeds will not be realized over any extended period of time.
Credit risk is to be avoided at all costs.
Bennet Sedacca
01:40:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
A few sore spots on my screen
Please note the action in American Express (AXP), SunTrust Banks (STI) and US Bancorp (USB).
Once again, the weakness in the economy is pervasive and highly negative.
There are, in my opinion, many more problem children to come.
I will acknowledge that credit markets are better than they were, but it is akin to my shooting 95 instead of 100, when used to shooting 75. It feels good–kinda-sorta, but not really.
Risks remain very very high.
This market has no idea what it wants to do! First my TNA is up then my BGZ is up
———————————-
thats when you sell your TNA
Not 1933…yet:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4339501/Bad-news-were-back-to-1931.-Good-news-its-not-1933-yet.html
does TNA stand for Tits-N-Ass?
to all ladies…its not up enough…I dont want to breakeven or make just a little… waiting for one of them to breakout. I sell something end of day before my tennis game.
In other news:
Foreigners Puking Up Treasuries
01/26/2009
New York Times:
“All the key drivers of China’s Treasury purchases are disappearing — there’s a waning appetite for dollars and a waning appetite for Treasuries, and that complicates the outlook for interest rates,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist in the Hong Kong office of the Royal Bank of Scotland.
I’ve talked extensively about the bubble in U.S. Treasuries in recent issues of Bourbon & Bayonets. The majority of the emphasis in my analysis was towards the massive amount of monetary inflation and the exponential growth of U.S. government liabilities. What I haven’t talked about is the other side of the story.
As Mr. Simpfendorfer notes, we are seeing demand from the biggest foreign players in the Treasury market diminish. Obviously these guys aren’t complete idiots and a lot of their decreased demand is from the above mentioned reasons. But why must it always be about us?
You see, that’s the problem. Both politicians and the citizens of the U.S.A actually believe the Chinese care what we say. That’s the equivalent of the bookie taking orders from the gambling addict that owes him $50,000. It’s ridiculous. At any time the Chinese can cut off its funding to the U.S. and poof, there are no more wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Social security and Medicare cease to exist, and the dollar collapses overnight resulting in complete chaos.
A perfect and very interesting example of this is the continued jaw-boning by the U.S. to get the Chinese to let the Yuan float in order to increase its value therefore reducing our trade deficit. Even Geithner was speaking out on this topic, shaking his finger at the Chinese Like I mentioned, the Chinese don’t care, but the interesting thing is whether or not this notion would even work. There have been many occasions where a nation has let its currency float with the desire to strengthen it and reduce their trade surplus with the U.S. A large number of those cases have ended up having the exact opposite reaction with the domestic currency actually decreasing in value. Two clichés here: be careful what you with for and don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
I’ve gotten side tracked and will have to cover those details more extensively in a future issue of Bourbon & Bayonets. For now I must digress.
But the notion is the same. In the U.S. we tend to focus more than we should on what we’re doing and our side of the trade. It’s not a terrible thing, especially in recent months, but sometimes you miss a piece of the puzzle doing so.
The Chinese Credit Card Drying Up
Let’s look at some Chinese macroeconomics. The Chinese economy is also in decline. We have seen GDP growth decline to approximately half of what it once was. Just like the U.S., economic declines have lead to reduced levels of domestic tax revenues. Given that the global economy will continue to decline, we can expect Chinese tax revenues to continue to decline, and we can also expect the Chinese domestic fiscal expenditures to increase in order to combat this (even the Chinese are Keynesians). Look for more along the lines of their $600 billion stimulus package. Less revenues and higher expenditures means less government surplus. That will result in less of a budget surplus, which means less money to spend on Treasuries.
You are obviously aware of the decline in consumer spending here in the U.S. That means people are buying a whole lot less things that say “Made in China.” This has a two pronged effect. The first is simply less business for China’s manufacturing sector. This contributes to the above mentioned scenario and will end up further reducing China’s budget surplus.
The second notion is very simply. Less spending here in the U.S. means less of a trade surplus for China. That’s exactly what we’re seeing as the trade gap between the U.S. and China is in decline. As the trade gap shrinks the amount of excess U.S. dollars that are funneled back into the Treasury market decreases. Expect this trend to not only continue, but to get more severe going forward.
The Chinese have their own issues. Not only is the U.S. driving bearish fundamentals into the Treasury market, but the Chinese simply don’t have as much excess money to spend on Treasuries any more and that pile of dollars is only going to increase. That in itself is a bearish fundamental. The trade is stacked, and it’s just a matter of timing at this point.
Nicholas Jones
Analyst, Bourbon & Bayonets
Here’s the BIG question for everyone now: WHERE’S THE BOTTOM? That’s the real $1 trillion question. Market’s down 50% the ’07 high. What happens now? Roubini and Schiff called this disaster, but who will be the genius to call the correct bottom? The true bottom will likely not be known until a 1000 or so points up from there. Will this market go to 7000? 6000? And remember also, we haven’t had the proverbial big washout or capitulation day yet. Until then, folks are going to be very jittery and distrustful of any move in either direction. I sympathize with The Fly’s recent trading – after making over 60% in 2008, how does he make big bets in this market? We could go down 50% from here, or not… Any prognositcations on where the bottom likely is – on the Dow or S&P?
what wine on the menu this afternoon Lady G?
Satan’s dog… yeah, I saw that, pretty funny. Not sure the whole thing wasn’t an act, however.
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fly would it be possible for you to have a link to a spreadsheet or a table that shows your stocks and prices of entries? it is gonna make our life easier (not that you care about it you old f*cker!)
Lady G…even the name sounds annoying
Anyone looking to take Meredith’s advice on AXP and add long term on a move below 15?
They report after the close and worse than expected earnings could provide a BOTD op….
What says The Fly and others?
Been to the Ocean Course at Kiawah. Very windy and cold when I was there.
Pizada:
Why would I do that?
However, in PPT, I will list my top 10 positions every night.
isn’t Pizda the Polish word for “dick”?
Been to the Ocean Course at Kiawah. Very windy and cold when I was there.
That’s when the She-Crab soup comes in most handy.
Yeah, you’re not guaranteed good weather there til mid to late April. It’s still relatively far north.
Nice place though, and close to Charleston — Woodrow territory.
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