Look, if VNO is having trouble parting with some of its cash, paying 60% of its qt dividend in stock, the sector is in for huge investor backlash/share price depreciation/multiple compression.
First of all, issuing dividends in the form of stock is incredibly dilutive. Furthermore, the only reason why most people by reits is for their dividends. Expect to see a lot of VNO type deals and full blown dividend cuts, during the course of 2009.
Basically, the sector is about to lose a whole class of investor. The old dude down the block who needs yield to pay for his country club membership. Yeah that guy, he’s a fucking seller of IYR today.
Within the Reits, I want to be a net seller of VNO, SPG, BXP, KIM and SLG. Ideally, I would like to short them on a bounce.
Following the JPM report and impressive upside reversals in Europe this morning, I would not be surprised to see the lunatic fringe of the bull camp attempt to run the market up by 1% or so. However, be very careful of a head fake, especially with oil getting punched in the scrotum.
And, let’s not forget about potential crisis looming at BAC.
With my money, I will look to lock in some gains here and build my cash position to over 50%. I will not buy anything on a dip, including AAPL. My position is still extraordinarily bearish. But, at the same time, I don’t feel like pushing the envelope here. Maybe I am getting old or some shit.
Either way you slice it, the economy is fucked and the reits are fucked in a most egregiously unique way.
Needless to say, this is no time to be an asshole dip buyer.
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Fly is God
ROFL! What is that guy (cover page) eating? A yellow “peppah” with his sausage?
You are the oddest.
______
Anybody riding short the BAC CRASH? Just initiated a big position at 9.00!
This is when you day trade, boys and girls and FLY…Cover your BAC short on Friday morning, when the government will work out another bailout plan on the weekend.
Looking for a 25%+ gain on this…
OMG this is soo beautiful I have tears in my eyes.
That’s the iron chef dude. Don’t tell me you are not well versed in the culture of iron chef.
A most startling development.
BAC getting the dog kicked out of it, deservedly so.
It’s from the original Iron Chef. That Chairman was much more flamboyant than the present one. Maybe he shopped at Macy’s.
This market has become so gawd damn easy to predict. We’re going to hell people. Prepare for the absolute worst!
Fuckin’ idiot, dip buyers create these opportunities.
Buying BAC here is ballsy. I rather sit this one out and watch them file chapter 11.
How hilarious would that be?
Oh wait, I have a lot of money with them.
Fuck.
Off to my local BAC branch to make a withdrawal.
Last week everyone was CNBC bullish.
Why so serious?
Come on people. Remember the stimulus?
Anyone?
Fly whats up
I fucking loaded the boat on srs, faz, eev, skf during the christmas time headfake rally… I am making serious gains here adding nearly 25% gains.
I hate to be negatore but I might sell out of my skf and faz before 3 or before 3 tomorrow. What are your thoughts or should be buying more hear on the run ?
Anybody watching “C” too?
Stock is below $4…
I guess the government will have to workout a plan for BAC AND C over the weekend.
Look for BAC to cut dividend…
Correct, the Chairman can now be seen socializing in the perfume section at your local Macy’s.
Needless to say, this is no time to be an asshole dip buyer.
Unless one is ADB’ing SRS, SKF and FAZ, you mean.
I’m thinking that utility short ETF Dawg was peeing his leg about over a month ago is looking good right now as well, btw.
_____
Malaka:
Not a bad idea.
I repeat: it’s not a bad idea to lock in short side gains here.
That’s the iron chef dude. Don’t tell me you are not well versed in the culture of iron chef.
Outside of professional football and amateur(ish)college basketball, I watch about eleven minutes of boob tube a year.
No chefs make “the cut.”
______
Fly, are leveraged corporate debt funds like VTA gonna be OK? I’m thinkin’ of loading the boat, once I am done with this bong hit.
Fly,
I am SHORTING BAC…Who in the fuck would buy here? Remember, after the stock hits $5…look for another wave of selling as mututal funds cannot hold stocks under $5.
Speaking of which, I also have my checking accounts on BAC…
God damn it, you guys ever switch banks? It’s SUCH A PAIN IN THE ASS because you have to switch credit card info, Paypal, EBAY, bills and all that junk.
I actually think that BAC is in worse shape than C.
C is disposing of shit while BAC has the same asset quality and buying merrills when it couldn’t afford to.
I wonder if GS buy Merrills off them now as that would be a screamer.
I think I am closest on Swan’s “where will CRAAPL close on Thursday?” contest.
Lotta day to go, however.
______
Jake,
In general I hate TV and everything and everyone on it. Let’s add that it is a complete waste of energy and life. It’s one of the only things I fight with my wife about. I always want it off. That said Iron Chef is muy excellente…
..100pct bang on fly….and if VNO has to do this and they are in better shape than other REITS, what does that say for all the other ones that are as not well capitalized!!…they r so fucked…death to REITS
Fly, can I do tax loss selling into the second week of the year?
J-
Are you still finger banging wallabies down under? Interesting hobby.
It’s over. The selling acceleration has already started.
banks are dead. no fund is buying BAC or C right now. they’re done.
JPM is catching a bid, but they’re still vulnerable to losing 50% from here, cutting the dividend, etc.
Nooooooooo! I bought GGP for the 137% cash dividend. Don’t try to scare me out of the stock!
Fly, how about finding who has very dependent lines of credit through BAC? That, or those who have little cash on hand and have lines of credit/accounts with BAC?
That’s a really intelligent comment, Mr. Osmond.
well said Fly….
Now on to other news…..I have seen the Jim Baggins Goldman verses Dan Lyons video 3 times now, Dan Lyons wins “man of the year”
CNBC, with the apple cover up and all the Hosts snuggling up with Jim and attacking Dan for “speaking the truth” proves that CNBC is run by fruit cakes.
That said Iron Chef is muy excellente…
I am also missing that male gene that is interested in cooking.
I recognize that it’s non-ghey and all, it’s just that I don’t have it. Maybe it’s the Celtic blood.
I am interested in eating good cooking, however.
_______
anybody think C can do a billion shares in volume today?
UUP is hitting up against its downtrend line that started on 11/21 and passed through 12/5. It’s right around $25.80 today, and our high has been 25.78.
Dollar is due a breather here, so I wouldn’t go max short at this juncture, although I wouldn’t go nuts covering either.
________
Easy short in BAC has been made…look for JPM to fall to the teens. The only reason for JPM catching a bid today is nervous BAC investors switching to JPM…supposedly the last safe bastion. There are no safe bastions.
fly is god
I sold my faz too early (yesterday)… still have dug and srs left
where is DD?
To be the head of ECB the you are required to be French and therefore the stupidest man in the world.
Trichet Says Inflation Risks Are ‘Balanced’ on Slump
10 shares of BAC says Fly gets long something today!!!
Who is going to save the day? Hank? Timothy? Warren Buffet? BHO?
Mohommed El?
I gotta a question here… if you believe REITS are fucked why would you sell SRS at all, Mr. Fly?
Shorting the mall REITS – CBL, MAC – has been berry, berry good to me.
Trichet, unlike Hank and Ben, has eaten too much cheese.
Hank and Ben have just dispensed it.
SRS is forward looking and daily at that. Whatever the fook that means. $49 to $70 in a week? SRS DUG SDS SSO UYG and all the X’s are the work of Devilworshipers…. I can only pray that GOD hisself follows thru with his 09 resoulution and and gives them up once and for all
j-
I it’s a happy day in the land of T MOE as I watch GS and BAC bleed. If GS would buy the shit from Merrill I would add to my shorts. Merrill has a ton of tier 3 CMBS. They sold most of the residential shit to LoneStar but the CMBS is the next shoe to drop. Like fly said commercial RE is fucked. Stan Oneil fucked of Merrill so bad that Thain had no choice but to look for a buyer from the get go. Lewis is a fucking fool to jump at the deal in one weekend.
Today 06:52am
Soc Gen analyst: US economy likely to move into depression
Good call’s moe. You have pegged this since the fat dude fell through the chimney. here’s a hat tip to you.
I bought some C the other day and got stopped out a few hours later. The market looks truly fucked.
I’ve gone through the funnel too, in a different way though. I made some decent money in currencies and sent that through the fucking stock funnel to people like you and fly.
Citi going the way of AIG. $1.50 The Panic is taking hold
j
What are you playing in currencies right now?
All the companies Buffett bought into last year when everyone thought he was god, and “knew” something others didn’t are all down 40% from where he bought into them…….just a note to the wise…….yeh yeh yeh, I know all the dipshits out there will say “he’s a long term holder” yeh….bullshit, he is down 40%, and that is the way it is…..if the market keeps up the way it is going he will not live long enough to see a come back…
Last summer I tried to think of what would be the most unimaginable thing to happen in this slump that would end up being the iconic, emblematic fuck-up that people would later refer to when discussing how bad things got. The failure of Bank of America seemed to fit the bill, so just for kicks I slapped on an “Armageddon trade” by buying puts on BAC with a $2.50 strike expiring in 2010.
Hee hee hee.
How do they hold the fucking flood gates though, Moe. IF C does an AiG then BAC will too.
So the government will take over $6 trillion in banks assets?
fme dead.
Moe
I shorted Aussie at 66.30 when the stock market opened 100 points down. have my stop there and looking for this shit to collapse. Not taking prisoners though I have my stop set at the entry level and if they get me they get me as it’s a pretty big pos. snf I don’t wanna lose capital.
But I think it could be heading to 60 cents again.
Short JPM Long C for a trade.
I really don’t know what to do with gold. I’m as bullish as all hell as a result of this bank thing. If C and BAC go the US has two choices let them go or simply take them over. If it takes them over it will spook the shit out people because of their size. But they can’t fly to other currencies as they’re all crap. So where do they go… it should be gold?. However it’s really trading like shit and it scares me that we could go to 700 bucks as it looking like it wants to tank. but I think the trade is up eventually.
Fly what does the PPT say on symbol OBAMA for tuesday?
You guys should be thinking of shorting HBC and DB. I saw some bank owned homes owned by these guys. They have it on their books at $90k a piece. I swear they were not worth more than $30k max. Complete junk. If a lot of their properties are like this can you imagine the write downs they will take down the road ?
Plus DB and HBC still have a lot of meat on their bones unlike C and BAC. Who wants to short penny stocks ?