I bought a little VCLK this morning, which is essentially besides the main point. We are in the midst of a most dishonorable commodity rally.
See, here on iBankcoin, “The Fly” conducts himself in a certain ordained manner. He is a man of ethics and principal, unlike most bloggers. The very notion of investing, without conviction, is rather unsettling to me.
Take XOM for example: I am short from $82, yet find no concrete reason to cover my shorts. That’s conviction dear friends/enemies. Regrettably, being short RIG does not offer “The Fly” the same comforts, which in turn has forced me to cover my shorts in that particular name.
At the moment, I find it odd that the market is rallying, without the luxury and support of bank/commerical real estate stocks driving the limousine. What oil stocks are doing now is rather astounding, essentially pricing in $70 crude.
What’s important to me is the activity in t-bills. My position in TBT is finally starting to gain some traction. Amazingly enough, the telegraphed trade of shorting t-bills/long equities is ham and egging it, to use a rather loose term, all the way to the local bank teller.
With my vast sums of liquidity, I have placed minor bets in a variety of names, none of which should be of any importance to the likes of you. For you, I have purchased a small quantity of VCLK, at an undisclosed price, at an undisclosed time.
The first trading day of 2009 shall be remembered as a day that let basic resource stocks out of their respective cages, and into the showers of bearshitters, in order to bite their heads off. However, all other sectors, thus far, are sort of mailing in the trading day.
Until I see the frantic action spread, like a cancerous tumor, I shall not change my opinions of banks/commercial re, which incidentally is rather grim.
NOTE: Preferred bank shares caught a bid this morning, evidenced by strength in PGF and PGX. They are both worth a look.
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“Until I see the frantic action spread, like a cancerous tumor, I shall not change my opinions of banks/commercial re, which incidentally is rather grim.”
That is the worst analogy of 09!
Oh yeah and “Fly is Hashem”
Thanks for sharing. Looking forward to upcoming week with insights you and others may share. Would be nice to get back to par on my tbt, likely then get out of it while taking other positions. Saw Mother Market early riding up and tbt too, horseblinders on re ISM. To your credit I stopped by your blog first as we just finished sledding with our kids 🙂
Hello The Fly,
Happy trading in 2009. I can’t wait for this year, so many possibilities. Thanks for blogging, IBC makes the day much more fun.
The money from Treasuries is going into commodity names.
ERX to 45
I told everyone the ‘short energy’ trade is about as fresh as a Fog Hat concert
Didn’t the S&P bottom in 2003 at a 27 PE ? Even a worst case scenario of $40 S&P earnings puts us at 1080 with a 27 PE.
PGH is a worthless Canadian energy trust I used to own in the high teens.
CAP:
That would imply that future earnings will be heading north. Good Sir, where shall those future earnings be found?
Back in 2003, banks were just starting to lever up, as regulations were lifted, allowing them to lever 50:1 from a modest 12:1.
Since it is all a bit slow today, I thought I’d share. I rang in the New Year yesterday with a viewing of the old-school classic ‘Trading Places’.
I hadn’t seen it in years. Not only it is it the example I use when someone asks me ‘what is short-selling?’, but it is chock full of classic lines. One I’d completely forgotten…(when eddie murphy is in jail)
“I told you…I’m a Karate Man. And a Karate Man bruise on the INside.”
Classic!
This hour long tightening trading range on the S&P is slightly vexing, since I’m short the index.
My bet is we break through resistance, overhead.
Anyone really think the S&P can close over 920?
I grabbed some SDS here @ 68.20
wood, at what point will you go long the index?
There, it is done. I guess now the question remains whether money buys S&P 920, or sells it.
jig, I would not go long the indexes before a pullback.
Now that means they could go significantly higher, and then pullback, and I’d be in.
I’m betting the pullback takes us lower than today’s close.
Trading is rather moribund today.The volatility is gone.
“as fresh as a Fog Hat concert” … funny shit and Flylike!
The fly is too negative. He’s going to get swatted.
does anyone else have this problem:
my paper trades are up like 1000%
while my real trades are down like 50%!
WTF!!
NUE, STLD performing very strongly considering steel demand should be in the shitter. They are outperforming their peers.
Naturally, the New Year sets off with a Chinese rape. Glad that I took my lumps on FXP.
There is no steel demand. As a matter of fact, Chinese manufacturing is in recession, believe it or not.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24864970-36418,00.html
And, for the record, having a 50% cash position does not make me negative and open to “swatting.”
It just makes me cautious.
jig, psychology and emotions are a bitch, eh?
But FLY – 2009 earnings will suck and everyone knows that and its priced in. 2010 is the X Factor. What if the 2010 S&P earnings are north of $60 ? You seem to assume that 2010 will be worse than 2009. If that’s the case than yes, S&P with a 10-12 PE makes sense. If however we have a huge rebound in 2010 as the housing market stabilizes, banks start making profits, consumer spending increases etc the potential for a huge rally exists, even a return to S&P 1500.
So the big question is whether the first 6 months of 2009 will be the worst of the economic crisis or whether it will get worse. I think the first 6 months of this year will be the worst part and we will recover in the 2nd half.
Here’s the real test.
wood,
they sure are, its fucking up my health too and im only 26!
Bull markets don’t need fundamental reasons, Fly. Get bullish now, get off your energy shorts. You can thank me by adding me as a tab.
little 2 rich you are a 19 year old homo who probably has never gotten laid. fly, i think this kid has a man crush on you.
Rich:
As it stands now, being 19 years old disqualifies you from offering financial advice, especially to those who are many pegs ahead of you, in the pecking order called “life.”
Might I suggest getting a degree in finance, prior to offering Stock Gods advice?
Oh, how I wish (except there are a few bullish friends who I do not wish to punish) the market gods will open us up Monday and drop the indexes down 7+%, like the good ole days of 2008. That would put the bulls back in check.
Maybe Rich and CAP should get “priced in” together?
Bennet Sedacca
11:09:29 AM
Position in SDS
VIX Alert
The VIX has pulled back to the breakout point and to its 200 DMA.
I hate to rain on everyone’s parade, but the S&P is on track to earn a whopping $42 this year.
And while I like certain sectors, getting all starry eyed about a 24 P/E during an historical debt unwind that is only supported by a Fed and Treasury that will stop at nothing, I am taking this opportunity to fade/short this market.
With defined risk of course.
I like being in the minority. And keep in mind this is for a trade.
Fly- volatility has been absent for a while now. Today is no different. I bought some SPY Jan 90 puts a few months ago. I got out of some but thought I would hold on to some just to see if we hit new lows and the VIX spiked. With the VIX in the shitter I am getting my face kicked in on those puts while also eating the time decay. Probably should have dumped them last Monday. got a little greedy and got away from my discipline. Won’t happen again, as you live and you learn
DEVILDOG Says:
Downtrend to undercut the lows starts tomorrow.
January 1st, 2009 at 8:00 pm
ok
Looks like 920 is getting sold, instead of bought.
Bulls should be asking themselves, “Now What?”
Ahhh…. the Fly continues to demonstrate his benevolent side by unbanning a certain someone. Classic Fly samurai move based on confidence, good stuff! 🙂
Jig, the issue of a man crush is quite interesting.
Bulls respond: “time to start chugging our own cocks.”
Shed, how I wish I had bought DXO for a trade, what a nice run-up it’s had. Any advice on where to enter if it pulls back?
Boca, RSI2<10 is where I’ll add.
Thank you Shed.
No problem. I’m hoping DXO and USO have a couple more swings left in them.
I am getting short rig via the may 30 put. Very little risk, just 1.05 a contract and lots of upside if oil stays down or goes lower.
Ryan
http://concisetrading.blogspot.com/
I’ve mentioned CLF and FCX a couple of times. They both trade at enterprise values that are huge discounts to replacement cost, even after CLF has more than doubled off its November low.
Now we see India’s iron ore imports doubled in November and China is once again in purchase mode.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/8ly2jt
Either could be taken over by BHP, RTP, RIO, AA, etc. at huge premiums that would still be below replacement cost.
See, here on iBankcoin, “The Fly” conducts himself in a certain ordained manner. He is a man of ethics and principal, unlike most bloggers.
Question: were you wearing your black turtleneck, white goatee and glasses– and did you have your meerschaum pipe firmly clenched between canine and incisor whilst you were typing the above?
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You asshat bearshitter fools! The S&P itself projects 2009 earnings of $81.80, which will put the index at 1280 even with a 16 multiple!
Look at the box in this site, open the “Excel” spreadsheet. set column width to 10 and look at the “O” column to see $81.80 projected 09 earnings!
Why don’t you asshats learn how to research?
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,6,0,0,0,0,0.html
NOTE: Preferred bank shares caught a bid this morning, evidenced by strength in PGH and PGX. They are both worth a look.
That RBS (“T”) preferred is spasming up again as well.
Oh, and what’s this?
I just got a text message from Mr. Limm, and it said:
$BEE KAY ELX ($BKX) GLEEEN!!
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Looks like 920 is getting sold, instead of bought.
I wish I knew what you were looking at. Granted you’ve got all those high tech thingamabobs, but my low tech volume bars show low volume buying, just like the last two weeks or so.
Bulls should be asking themselves, “Now What?”
But bears should be more firmly entrenched in their biases?
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12/17 highs… in the rear view.
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At the moment, I find it odd that the market is rallying, without the luxury and support of bank/commerical real estate stocks driving the limousine. What oil stocks are doing now is rather astounding, essentially pricing in $70 crude.
Have Woody, or a more adjacent trader servant, pull up a daily chart of DXO for you.
Please.
Pay particular attention to those black long things at the bottom right under “volume.”
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Adding DXO and TNA (to my GMO block). My first three positions of 2009!