The markets are on the verge of breaking out. As always, I am skeptical of any breakout, especially when they are espoused by coked out of their brains CNBC talking heads. And I do not mean the employees of CNBC, like Maria and Matt ” fat fuck” Nesto. I am talking about the assholes who are interviewed on the exchange floor, every fucking day, telling the audience how “cheap” equities are.
Nonetheless, even broken clocks are right twice per day. So, with the 50%+ cash that I have set aside, I am prepared to get long a select group of stocks, which I outlined here and here.
However, since everyone is all amp’d up, waiting for some sort of ’09 run, “The Fly” is prepared, if needed, to sell to you, twice mind you.
Again, as of now the trend is up. But, should the laws of reason creep back into the markets, effectively knee-capping the likes of Matt Nesto and cannon fodder like “Jim Goldman,” here is a list of potential short sales:
Basic Materials
LIHR, AU, SMG
Consumer Goods
NAV, PBI and SFD
Financial
DEI, FHN, MCO
Healthcare
THRX, HLS, ISIS
Industrials
CTX, PHM, RYL
Services
UAUA, CVC, RGC
Technology
RMBS, CCI, WBSN
Utilities
none worth considering. Maybe NI.
UPDATE: Video request, as per Holly Woodshedder
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lYDARoffpY 450 300] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Don’t buy till mid week next week … wednesday-ish.
We’ll be selling off beginning Friday.
Fly: Pretty harsh words for Nesto–even for you….
Long: FWLT
I suspect Juice may be correct, I have this hinky feeling that some sellers have been holding out for the first opportunity in ’09, just to spread out some losses. After that the Bam Bam rally may commence in earnest.
http://publications.budget.state.ny.us/eBudget0910/fy0910littlebook/RevenueActions.html
Read it and weep… NYC tax increases itemized for your reading.
A must read.
Fly-
Where are the energy names to short? are you still short XOM?
I am short xom and rig.
What is the best way to play a quick bounce in solar? Im looking for one to two point on a cheap play (cheap=dollar amount)????
JASO
TSL
LDK
SOL
I am also going to play a shipper for another quick trade.
Same type of situation (cheap stock, a point or two in gains)????
DRYS
TBSI
EXM
Thanks
The market basically yawned at the whole Madoff thing. That seems unnatural to me. The news hit after hedgies had thrown up the gates to trap their investors from taking their money back AND after most guys had already closed out the year.
I’m in the camp that expects we’re going to see another round of redemptions when the adults get back on the desks next week.
SFI = not in Consumer Goods.
From Times Online via Bloomberg:
‘Microsoft is preparing to announce the first widescale layoffs in its 32-year history, with up to 15,000 jobs at risk, according to some predictions.
Speculation about job cuts was triggered by a report from Fudzilla, the technology blog site, which said that employees had been told that the software group was “readying major layoffs to its worldwide operations” on January 15.
That prompted a flurry of internet commentary, with estimates of planned redundancies varying from
10 to 17 per cent of the company’s 91,000 employees worldwide. MSN, the online division, is expected to be heavily affected.’
I too have been short XOM. Started shorting at 82 a few weeks ago. I have built up a sizable short position. This recent run up has been kicking my ass. I believe that when volume returns, volatility will come back with it. People will take profits they have in XOM and it will break down to $70. It is approaching its 200 day moving average, which it has been unable to break with any follow through.
Ass Napkin Mike- You may want to consider a Solar etf- symbol TAN. I believe it averages about 500,000 shares a day but I am not sure about the spread as I don’t follow it.
Here is a link to the TAN current holdings.
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/etf_funds.asp?MFID=185513#Sector%20and%20Holdings%20Summary
Fly,
What do you think of CNQ?
Dave-
I live in Microsoft country and know a lot of people who work there and most of them have been very nervous lately. There have been an abundance of rumors. A huge layoff would really hurt things here. I hope it is not true. My home value has been holding up well and I am still way above water since I am so close to campus and homes that are close are still in demand, but a big layoff could hurt my value. Not good
Keyser-
I think you are right that there is more blood to come from the Madoff scheme. The big boys are just starting to come forward, a lot of them are scared to admit they had exposure, it may cause a wave of redemptions. How one guy can amass such huge AUM is baffling to me. This guy must be able to sell ice to eskimos
T MOE
I think that’s the way everyone feels. Pray for the best, prepare for the worst.
I’m a contract programmer. Demand has fallen way off. Outsourcing to India and other countries has had a big affect on wages. I think the economic conditions are going to accelerate this trend as companies look to boost earnings and profits by any means.
Didn’t Microsoft basically buid a city in India?
On the Madoff subject, No way one person pulls this off without help. We’ll be hearing about the ‘Madoff 10’ or however many people are involved down the road.
I don’t know if they built a city in India, but they definitely have a little Bombay next to their campus. I am not prejudice by any means but I often feel like the only white guy when shopping at stores close to Microsoft
Downtrend to undercut the lows starts tomorrow. Either a quick cascade there by 1/12 to 1/19 or extended slow decline until the end of February or first week of March.
Glad to see you here DD. I am looking for the same set up as I have built up to 70% short during this head fake rally. How long can the market continue to shrug off the bad news?
As I have read somewhere, 2008 was the panic and 2009 will be the collapse. Higher taxes are coming and revolution is in the cards. Hang the criminal bankers, start with Paulson for raping the treasury of the Nation. Prepare for the Greatest Depression
Homebuilders (CTX / PHM / RYL) dont fall under industrials…
Hang the criminal bankers, start with Paulson for raping the treasury of the Nation…
It’ll never happen, but music to my ears nonetheless.
In the NY State link Needle posted, the 2 largest items they are going after are:
tax on utilities 651, tax on clothes 462
both will hit the little guy – that’s inflationary while housing deflates
It seems that all govs will be raising fees, fines & taxes on anything and everything.
Fly, for the love of the 2009 gods, please tell your tech guy to re-state FULL RSS feeds. Right now you can only see like 2 lines…
Happy New Year everyone and tx for the list Mr. Tropicana.
about the banks-
did anyone notice the insane run up in Goldman shares ove the past few days. they report a 2.2 billion dollar loss and the stock sky rockets. How? Have they presented any info on how they are going to make money going forward? Sure they have taken down a lot of their leverage, but how are they going to make money without levering up. If you look at most of their earnings in the past most of it came from prop trading using leverage. Asset Management is where most of there revenue came from this past quarter as M&A is absent and prop desk went to shit. It is crazy to me that anyone believes this stock is worth $84 a share when peers are trading below 20. I must be missing something
Question re Madoff: Was he the main culprit in the market selloff as redemption requests came in? Has it been reported how much is left in his fund to be liquidated … thought I heard that he only had a couple hundred million left.
And if no other big redemptions (particularly from his fund or funds not so big) are forthcoming, won’t those stocks that are fundamentally sound(if any in this environment can be)rebound sharply if/when money comes back into the market?
Not trying to be overly bullish but wondering if a strong rally won’t see some large percentage moves in stocks that were sold purely on forced redemptions. Which stocks were unduely sold and likely to be the first to see these possible moves … the nifty fifty, S&P 100, value, growth, etc. and can the PPT provide a listing of those potential winners assuming they weren’t sold short but the most liquidated if you will during the qtr.
In 87′ when the market turned, I remember seeing exponential moves to the upside in hours just as we witnessed moves down on the panic selling during the November bottom in 08′ … then I thought, “What was I thinking? … I could have bought IBM, AXP, BA, DIS, GE, etc. for pennies on the dollar”, but then I didn’t have the cahoonies to take the risk. Hate to miss another panic buying session like that in 87′ so Fly’s long/short strategy at least keeps you in the market no matter what.
Any thoughts/ideas or sources for the most liquidated large cap stocks during q4?
Are we shorting any commercial real estate?
Ok. I will reinstate full RSS feeds.
I am hesitant about short oil right here, since it is the go to sector for the asshole dip buyers.
I am short KIM and VNO
T MOE, I’m with ya. FUCK paulson and GS. Going to burn DOWN the house this year. The coming revolution/depression and 16 year Super Cycle Bear will be awesome for those that are not sheeples or koolaide drinkers and can think for themselves.
Gotta go now and hopefully watch my alma matar VA TECH HOOKIES beat the Bearcats in the Orange Bowl.
Thanks for catching the SFI misprint. I meant to post SFD.
Corrected.
As I said on Wednesday, I’m 100% cash… I don’t trust this shit, and even if I had a little bit of trust for it, I still wouldn’t buy equities… We’re still playing in a channel range on the $SPX that is in the 858-910, and until it breaks down below or up above these ranges, I’m playing the iETFs… Looking at SRS, SDS, SKF, and FAZ… But again, I’m 100% cash and won’t make a move until volume and momentum say so.
ZM
Whatever happened to good games being played on New Years Day?
DevilDog is amazing!!!
Did you said market was going to cascade down starting december 29? And you bought 5k SRS at 59?
First was December lows, then because you were wrong, you moved the date to January 12….Now looks you are moving the date to January 19…Looks to me you are throwing darts at the market, and eventually when the market turns down, you come talking shit here saying you were right.
You are talking shit in the New Year already. AGAIN
Either you dont know how to trade or you are looking at the charts upside down or maybe you are calling Cleo or Walter Mercado at the physic network
If you are wrong, say you were wrong, but dont keep moving dates forward, because you are looking like Paulson.
Just shut up and LISTEN TO THE MARKET
Is Ticker guy growing a mullet??
You make fun of someone else’s physical appearance yet won’t post a picture of yourself?
This is good…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfP8ad5ZI0g
md fly posted that last wk. Good though
re: CRE … short MAC .. it will NOT survive .. its gonna be a big skinny ZERO … though, its a tough borrow sometimes
Full RSS feeds! Thank you Mr. Tropicana.
May the trading gods bless you and your family with plentiful gains and health in 2009 and may all third tier blogs be subsumed into the Peanut Gallery.
DeviDog has been outsourced to…………India. Where else?
T MOE… is the Goldman interest due to the news that Stephen Friedman just bought 37,300 shares of Goldman at $80 and change ( over $3 million worth) ?? that id the only recent news i have seen.. Friedman is the ex chairman/ex something of goldman i think..
The SRS I bought at 59 will make me mucho dinero. The shares I bought at 50.70 on Wednesday will make more. I do listen to the market and adjust my analysis as it plays out. I continue to raise my SSF and consequently have to extend my timelines as a result. The countertrend rally is done.
D-Dog … the counter trend rally is NOT done .. it just needs a break. We will flirt with DOW 10K in the first half of the year. Don’t be such a DogMatic Greedy Bear. Patience, my son, patience. New lows come to those who wait.
DevilDog;
What happened to the cascade down in the markets that it was supposed to happen on the December 29? Or you meant cascade up?
???
I hereby accept title of “originator of the Matt Nesto is Chris Farley” train of thought.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/dannyblog/index.php/2008/12/17/matt-nesto-stop-it-its-disgusting/
My 2009 prediction is that Devildog will end up covering near the 2009 high.
NEW LOWS FOR DECEMBER 2009
“Credit Suisse Group AG’s investment bank has found a new way to reduce the risk of losses from about $5 billion of its most illiquid loans and bonds: using them to pay employees’ year-end bonuses.
The bank will use leveraged loans and commercial mortgage- backed debt, some of the securities blamed for generating the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, to fund executive compensation packages, people familiar with the matter said. The new policy applies only to managing directors and directors, the two most senior ranks at the Zurich-based company, according to a memo sent to employees today.
The securities will be placed into a so-called Partner Asset Facility, and affected employees at the bank, Switzerland’s second biggest, will be given stakes in the facility as part of their pay. Bonuses will take the first hit should the securities decline further in value.
Amazing
Danny lol
Devildog, We need some men to take out the Fed.
Can we count on you?
What Devildog knows, is not worth knowing.
ps.
I AM DOUCHE.
Fredy,
Whats so amazing abt it? Its pretty smart actually.
Ed
I wouldn’t hate on DevilDog too much… Watch Friday closely, because I really feel he’s dead on that the counter-trend rally we just experienced is either over or VERY close to being over.
Don’t forget what happened on the first day of the “miracle month” of December. Everyone predicted “silver and gold” (in a figurative, holiday sense) a little too early.
ZM
Ed
I meant by amazing because FINALLY someone is attaching pay and bonuses with PERFORMANCE…
I think this model needs to be applied to AIG,GM and everyone else who caused this mess
Juice, not going to happen unless all the economic reports starting tomorrow and thru next week ending with the payrolls report are faked a lot more than usual. No obama rally for you. Remember that the market is forward looking by 6 to 8 months and I think even the market has priced in by now that he will be our next president and I believe it already knows we are going to save the USA by incurring more unfunded debt in the form of a stimulus package to create 3 million ditch digging jobs. Another words…it’s already priced in as is the full economic recovery in the 2nd half and the resulting increase in GDP to 10%, elimination of all national and individual debt, every american owning a home with 80% equity, 2 plasma tvs, 3 cars and a chicken in every pot! Rally on!
VA TECH HOOKIES WIN THE ORANGE BOWL!!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZm0zupPvbB8
HOKIES!!!
goldman runup-
My interest in everything Goldman has been a year long thing. I have made a lot of coin shorting them all year. Yes I have recently been kicked in the face by the run up but it by no means touches the huge bank I have made this year doubting the supposed smartest guys on the street.
fuck the good old boys club of Goldman. Paulson, Steele, corzine, what ever the fuck they asshole’s name is who is running the TARP. Paulson and company are taking care of each other with our money.
I could give a rats ass what insider just purchased shares. Hell a few months ago Buffet made a big bet on Goldman and the stock tanked. I continue to believe that they are overvalued. people are willing to pay a higher price just for the name and the prestige. The Harvard MBA’s that run the place and their friends are the ones that created this mess and the govt rewards them with a bailout. I am not some end of the world dumbass, but it does look like Goldman is the coming of the illuminati. they all take care of each other and strive for world domination.
The stock goes from 66 to 84 in less than a month on terrible new and a huge loss for the quarter. Looks like market fuckery to me.
Too far too fast. I will be getting short more GS very soon, and I just may go back to Hawaii with all the coin just like I did back in Nov.
T MOE, gs will go to new lows with the market. I’m SHORTING them tomorrow.
You’re a grad?
It’s “Hokies,” for goodness sakes.
Are you sure you didn’t just grow up in a cave outside of Blacksburg?
___________
Chivas
You seem to enjoy all of this gov’t communist shit. You post these articles, as if it is bullish for stocks.
What in the world is so bullish about the Treasury creating money out of thin air then using it to bailout bankrupt companies?
Just curious.
Revolution or reform? What do we need?
” People tend to assume that because a revolution involves a much greater change than reform does, it is more difficult to bring about than reform is. Actually, under certain circumstances revolution is
much easier than reform. The reason is that a revolutionary movement
can inspire an intensity of commitment that a reform movement cannot
inspire. A reform movement merely offers to solve a particular social
problem A revolutionary movement offers to solve all problems at one
stroke and create a whole new world; it provides the kind of ideal for
which people will take great risks and make great sacrifices. For this
reasons it would be much easier to overthrow the whole technological
system than to put effective, permanent restraints on the development
of application of any one segment of technology, such as genetic
engineering, but under suitable conditions large numbers of people may
devote themselves passionately to a revolution against the
industrial-technological system. As we noted in paragraph 132,
reformers seeking to limite certain aspects of technology would be
working to avoid a negative outcome. But revolutionaries work to gain
a powerful reward — fulfillment of their revolutionary vision — and
therefore work harder and more persistently than reformers do.
We need tax revolution not reform.
or an armed revolution.
Fly — who said there was anything good about it?
Information posted should be assessed for its market impact in the near term only, otherwise we risk “perma (Bull/Bear)” status.
After 2008, we should be wary of being “perma-” anything.
A wise man once told me “Leave the fucking politics out of it.”
_______
Im predicting the Obama Administration will relax or modify the Mark to Market rule for those companies who wants to hold assets for years…
Now that will be funny…
An easy repair of Banks balance sheets…and big ass rally
Armed is right. I just picked up a nice brand new Benelli M4 tactical 12 Ga. Great Christmas gift as a neighbor on the street up the hill from mine just had a break in. Extremely rare in this community of mostly techies and retired rich folk. I will be waiting http://www.benelliusa.com/firearms/large/m4PGDesert12Ga.jpg
perma nothing. If you are bullish, you are a retard.
No need for “bull talk” until were above 200 MA. So sorry.
Anything else is a bear mkt rally. Who cares how long it’ll last. Into Jan at best? Then we roll over. It’s gonna take more than a few things to change my tune, but you never know.
Yes, we’ve heard that dogma for the last two weeks. Real helpful.
If you can’t be flexible at 24, you’re in for some trouble ahead.
Repeat for clarity: After 2008, if you are “certain” about anything, but most especially about where the market is going, you are a retard.
____________
T-Moe —
Nice. I hope you are up on your drywalling technique.
_______
Fly-
What’s the story with XOM? Staying short but have watched profits slowly disappear. What does the PPT time machine say about the energy names?
as far as enjoying posting all this goverment communist shit; a word to the wise, do not even dare go fucking there. my parents fled cuba in 1962 because of fucking communism. i have had numerous family members killed by communist. so do not fucking tell me that i enjoy antthing communist.
the article posted is pertinent to our business. any time goverment chooses to use fiscal policy and monetary policy in expansive manners, it has an impact on all markets. that impact could be short or long term. that is pertinent to our business. whether i’m bullish or not is not the reason for that posting.
as far as the tone of your remarks, go fuck yourself. if you do not want my input just say so and it will be done.
as i have said here before, ours is not question why, ours is to anticipate and profit.
i just want to know the catalyst for a sustained up market in ’09.
-internet revolution? doubtful
-housing? doubtful
-china artificially building another country? doubtful
-africa? doubtful
-people buying GM and F cars en masse? doubtful
-infrastructure spending and deficit spending? possibly
-lending? doubtful, since you need an actual borrower with a reason to borrow and good credit
i just don’t see much more than a range-bound market. the one positive side-effect of all the nonsense this year is that my mailbox is no longer flooded with ‘pre-approved’ credit card offers.
That is horse shit Jake and you know it.
It may just be a question of semantics. To you, any semblance of an uptrend is a bull rally. To me, the market can go up for two months, but if it’s still ultimately heading lower, I don’t call that bullish. Trading op? Sure. But I ride with the real trend, which is lower.
The market is egregiously overbought here. Each subsequent up day will be sold to you guys until there is volume and visibility. Jan looks like it wants to go up. You tell me why.
Oh, and btw, the market has been flat for three months/one month/two weeks. Sweet rally.
Chivas- Easy lightning. Fly was just wondering why you thought the info was bullish
” The market is egregiously overbought here. Each subsequent up day will be sold to you guys until there is volume and visibility”
I second that.
When volume returns we will see who wins. My money is on us bears because we don’t wear rose colored glasses like Cramer and his sheeple
Danny
“Jan looks like it wants to go up. You tell me why.”
Mr Market dont care about noise, it will go up because it wants too or will go down because it wants too.
Like chivas said,
as i have said here before, ours is not question why, ours is to anticipate and profit.
I agree…market was in the tank back November 21 and what happened? IT RALLIED AND HELD THE LOWS!!! WHY? I dont know.
Anyone wants to argue the Market? Go ahead, you are going to lose
This discussion just reminds me of CNBC, trying to rationalize the market every day, when they dont know shit
I don’t ask why, kid, I just play the market that’s in front of me. I tried to be a dogmatic bear earlier in the year, and it didn’t do me any favors.
And cut with the straw manning, you’re starting to sound like one of our liberal commentators: “Any semblance of an uptrend is a bull rally?”
Don’t be an asshat.
_________
When volume returns we will see who wins. My money is on us bears because we don’t wear rose colored glasses like Cramer and his sheeple.
Just the kind of dogmatic bullshit that will get you in trouble.
The one thing I like about the Fly is that he’s willing to change direction, and not insist he’s right.
That’s a humility that’s been earned, and one that’s required if one seeks to manage large amounts of money.
___________
amen to that Jake.
The only thing you have control as a trader is your capital, your picks and your risk…everything else is out of you hands.
Plain and simple
I plan on insisting Im right until I know I’m wrong. And Jake, you’re a knowledgeable person, but most of these poeople…I have no idea their background, and don’t assume, but am certain (there’s that word again), that they are the “dumb” money. So you may be smart money Jake, but you know what the big picture is too. That’s why this is probably more a discussion on semantics…
I don’t think I’ve done anything too egregious…I’ve called BS on this rally the last three weeks, as the market rose, or trickled higher, or crushed shorts, however you want to skew it. So be it. Got it “wrong”
I shorted at spy 90.30, the other week, then shorted some more the other day (AAPL/TWM). Not only am I not underwater, but I’m not digging me own grave, even if my commentary makes it sound like Im betting on demise each day.
I have lotso cash to hedge with some whippersnapper commodity or whatever.
I even daytrade long sometimes.
Lets just let the XLF and SP do they thang. My bet, ultimately, is they dance lower.
My order is already in for a Friday opening short of SSO.
I’m bearish because my system is bearish.
That makes it simple. It doesn’t really matter what I think.
Then my system is bearish too since the hourly, and 15 Min LOBV are overbought as all fuck.
Fredy,
Got it.
Only down side is that people in back office / support functions will be affected even though decisions have not been taken by them. But then again, better than getting nothing at all.
And I Told Them I Invented Times New Roman – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VojZuOIlt6A
Chivas:
Normally I’d demand you go fuck a fascist goat and be done. But, you misinterpreted my “tone.”
You need to fess up to the fact that you, Sir, are a fucking perma bull. There is nothing wrong with it. Embrace it.
The context of all of your posts/comments are bullish. Therefore, with that in mind, when you posted some communist bullshit, I took it that you thought it was in fact bullish.
Now, if you cannot handle a little needle pricking, go suck the pants off a fascist goat.
Ed,
Report says only managing directors, directors and people making decisions related to the loans are affected, no backoffice or regular employees. I didnt wanted to post the whole article.
Freddy:
That plan is more than absurd. They don’t deserve ANY bonuses, in my opinion. Not even toxic assets.
Fly
Thats better than AIG and Lehmans getting their bonuses after getting bailout money and relabel the bonuses as ‘retention incentive’
True. But what are they accomplishing?
They are not getting rid of assets. They are throwing them away. The execs have laid waste to their companies. They do not deserve bonuses.
Fly,
With all due respect..a bank is made up of many other business lines other than just the mortgage business. Private banking in CS is immensely profitable.
Why should all the bank employees suffer for the folly of a few?
I like the New Woodshedder. Much less “HollyWood” more Matrix like.
He has a system and enjoys being plugged in. Sounds like a world of bliss, where men eat roast beef and sip on aged reds.
Hmmm
Private banking. Really, what aspects of private banking is “immensley profitable”?
Dougan has been getting rid of CDOs / CLOs since Q2 ’07
The write downs in Q4 were more in the syndicated loans business..which cannot be gotten “rid” of that easily
However, some of these areas have been reduced in focus..
Get in the funnel, er, uh, I mean matrix.
Getting rid=taking Donkey Kong cocked sized losses, pal.
The whole swiss based business is a cash cow..with over 750m in net income in Q3 as well as NNA of 14.5b
The Fly wrote: The execs have laid waste to their companies. They do not deserve bonuses.
I disagree.
The execs should all be awarded a bonus of a custom-fitted codpiece piñata at the start of the annual shareholders’ meeting. For the shareholders, it is Bat Day for the first 1000 through the door.
P.S. I intend to vigorously defend my copyright on the phrase “codpiece piñata”, but I grant free license to all IBCers to use the phrase in any manner and media.
My dear Fly,
the definition of a perma bull is one that is always bullish and long the market. since i have only been posting for a little over a year, that tag does not apply. it also does not apply because numerous times i have posted that i was either hedged or had collars on or had high cash levels in my fund. in addition, i have posted numerous times that i have traded around positions. those things do not define a perma bull. while it is true that i have not been net short the equities market this year at any time, you know that i have been on the record being bearish on oil starting at 125 and being short, that i have been on the record being short gold in the mid 900’s and covering in the high 600’s, that i have on the record being bullish on the dollar at 70 and then turning bearish at around 88. and you know that i am long crude right now from 38.58. if i were a perma bull i would say so. having said all of the above, i do regret very much not being net short at times last year. in all the years that i have spent in this business, i have never seen financials markets ignore the magnitude of fiscal and monetary response. i was wrong in not allowing for the time lags. you, on the other hand have played it rather well most of the time. you also do not dismiss people that disagree you or call them retards unless you’re pissed.
as far as the goat is concerned, i have one question, does it have to be a romanian goat? does it have to be a goat?
in retrospect, i do regret very much my earlier response to you. whether i had misread your tone or not, my response was wrong. i had recieved some pretty bad news yesterday. that’s not an excuse but an explanation.
also, yes i am very bullish right now. i know that short term oscillators are overbought, so what. i do believe that october, november marked the end of the bear market, can the lows be retested, sure, as a matter of fact i think the market will try to retest the lows, but i also think that you already have sectors that will never get close those lows. are there things that bother me now? you bet a ton of things. we have to take it one day at a time. all i know, is that the conditions that one normally sees at the end of bear markets for the most part are in place right now. having said all of that, a break by the dow,spx, comp, qqqq, tran, and nya of the lows, all of them, and i will cash in all my chips.
fuck you and good night
The goat is of the Cuban variety. So sorry.
LOL
Asian market are up big…
I agree with chivasontherocks last paragraph
Anyway, fuck you all and good night.
“Donkey Kong cock”
May win best phrase of 2008
Thx TradderCaddy for the Hd’s up,
Opps, I mean 2009. Got to get use to writing that..
Here’s some BOO-YHAA for YA…..
Jim Cramer Blog
One of the Best
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
1/2/2009 7:27 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10455723.html
This note was originally sent to subscribers of Action Alerts PLUS. For a free trial to the newsletter with all of Jim Cramer’s trading ideas, clcik here.
Remember the craze to own deposit banks? Remember the thought that if you had oodles of deposits, you could make it through this period with much more aplomb than if you were an investment bank, an investment bank like Lehman or Merrill (MER) or Bear? Or, of course, obviously, Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) ?
The stocks are saying that the judgment — the judgment in favor of deposits against so-called “hot money” — may be inaccurate or at least premature.
The judgment, as meted by Goldman Sachs’ stock, in fact, is saying that the deposit game may be dead wrong for 2009.
You can see what’s happening with the Goldman Sachs base and the lack of erratic trading, perhaps because the goal of breaking Goldman Sachs didn’t happen. It didn’t happen by now, it ain’t happening — that’s what the stock’s screaming.
And the subtext can’t be lost on people — the deposit banks are hostage to the consumer, who without stimulus, without tax credits, without jobs, can’t be counted on. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, has morphed into something that might turn out to be, not the hedge fund bank, but the advisory bank, the one without the consumer addiction that might turn into the 2009 version of the bad hedge fund/bad leveraged loan scenario that almost wrecked Goldman in 2008.
Just as we embrace and give a premium multiple to Northern Trust (NTRS) and State Street (STT) — however undeserving given the asset-backed nonsense that plagued them — as the custodian banks, we now have one company truly dedicated to advising the rich and the corporate, and that’s Goldman Sachs. With no bad loans to consumers.
I still like the exposure to the big banks — Wells Fargo (WFC) and JPMorgan (JPM) — because when they come back, they will roar. But the obituary for Goldman Sachs (and to a lesser extent Morgan Stanley) just didn’t happen in 2008.
And therefore, given the reform of the Goldman balance sheet, it isn’t going to happen in 2009.
It will, instead — even with this level of activity — be one of the best stories out there, one that should quickly go to a premium of book value, to $100, given the benign market we have suddenly and unequivocally discovered.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan.
Does EEV contain any Europe in it?
How do you get short EU (pound too?)
fuck Cramer and his bullish stance on GS. He loves to suck on Goldman’s cock. Just last week he was saying to stay away from banks. He is truly an idiot. I can’t believe that he gets away with his bullshit. I also can’t believe that people actually listen to him like sheep.
“Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, has morphed into something that might turn out to be, not the hedge fund bank, but the advisory bank, the one without the consumer addiction that might turn into the 2009 version of the bad hedge fund/bad leveraged loan scenario that almost wrecked Goldman in 2008.”
Ok, but how many deals are they going to advise and work? Not many from what I can tell. there is just not many deals out there. Also leverage was the way GS made their money in the past. Buy leveraging up and using that leverage on their prop desk. They were rock stars when everything was rosey in the market. That revenue is long gone. It was not so much the bad leverage loans as it is their exposure to the CDS mess. Let’s also remember the next shoe to drop is the commercial real estate market ( of course congress will come up with a bailout for it also). I believe GS has huge exposure to commercial real estate and CMBS
“i do believe that october, november marked the end of the bear market, ”
chivas anyone who says that is a perma bull
Did anyone else just see the survey results that CNBC just posted. Huge bullish sentiment for 2009. Huge.
This makes me even more bearish as the same survey was bullish at the start of 2008. Ha! what a crock. I can remember that most of the so called experts called for S&P 1400 to 1500 at the end of 2008. They were wrong then and are always wrong. do the opposite of what they say and make some coin
Don’t bet on GS not doing any M&A deals this year. Deals get done even in distressed markets, and GS will continue to get the “first call” on every one of them.
I wonder how many firms sold T-bonds on the 31st only to buy them back this a.m.? Q4 is paint the earnings time.
Jake – M&A deals won’t bear much fruit
the problem with GS is that although they have decreased their commercial real estate portfolio. they still have over $10 billion to go. And most if not all of that is illiquid. also they booked the CDS premimums they received as profit. Are you kidding me. The companies that the CDS is tied to will never be able to pay out. They are also holding their CDS holdings off the book. How about showing us what that amount is? If they would there would be a runn on the bank and the shares would be down with the likes of MS
Scum-
good point-
Is suspect that there was a good deal of that. They will start to buy back soon. Great market fuckery
Shut the fuck up Suze. Cramer has been wrong, watch the tapes
DXO is on the move again. Anyone in it?
So far, 2009 is a pretty good year I’d say.
gap,
50k of DXO here
T MOE:
Suze plays for the other team. She doesn’t know shit.
Damn, All the so called experts and talking heads are bullish. All bulltards will get in line like sheeple and be slaughtered when the big boys come back in. Retail investors are the buyers right now. Listening to their brokers who are hungry and who listen to their firms’ analysts. The same brokers that play the buy and hold game and have lost most of their clients money. My in-laws are so in love with their broker that they are giving him more money even after they just lost 40%. I tried to tell them back in Mid 2007 that shit was going to get ugly, but they did not believe me. Instead they listened to their broker and who charges them a fee and the lost big money. Hell , my advice is free.
Brokers have to be bullish or they would never get more money to manage.
Gap, yes, but small — 10k — starter kit.
Also have 3k ERX.
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Team-O — maybe if you put on a suit once in a while and laid off the Schlitz, the out-laws would be more amenable to listening up?
Sometimes, perception equals reality, or at minimum — trust.
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Hmmmm. A GS “advisory service” to rich asshats…
They didn’t learn last year?
That GS sells shit to their clients, then sells that shit short for its own accounts?
Hello?
Death to GS!
A fortune cookie for GS!!
DEVILDOG;
You need to place your balls in a bucket of ice. Even the FLY [who has very large balls] knows the market can fuck him at any moment. You are one person in a cest pool of millions. They range from retarted to genius. Being right doesn’t make you money and the people who are up the most go bust the quickest. I pray the trading GOD’S stay with you my friend.
New Years Resolution…SHUT OFF CNBC.
Jakegint you wear a suit to work?
You must work somewhere other than your basement office or second bedroom office 🙂
I agree perception is everything. It usually gets you the ‘ opportunity’ to speak with some authority but you have to back that up with some intellect or thats the last chance you get.
Although a lot of ‘ suits’ with a lot of abbreviations behind their names lost people a lot of money.
Lady G–
No worries, I can bullshit with the best of them.
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Update: We are officially at the 918.50 pivot. Everyone take a deep breath and bloooooooow!
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Don’t know if it is just our area, but the last week or two I’ve been going to stores (Microtel, BestBuy, CC, etc.) looking at computers. I need to replace my older home computer. Well, those stores and others have been packed and computers are selling en mass. At one store I was in on New Years eve the desktop area was almost all empty. I talked to a sales guy who told me they sold everything they had except the real high end stuff (8 GB RAM).
Anyways, if this isn’t just a local trend, then which companies will most benefit from this by reporting an upside surprise? The retailers (BBY, CC)? The manufacturers (HPQ, DELL, etc.)? Or the various parts suppliers?
Jake:
Your post implies Team-O could (or wants to) recognize an out-law from an in-law. 99% of Washington is bought and paid for by the out-laws. Money talks, shit walks. Even Denninger (http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html ) recognizes that Madoff, et al was the work of hundreds who knew or who were bought off.
They are ALL thieves.
Im getting ready for Pullback time according to my Crystal Ball…Market needs to rest and this time we will see if the 20 and 50 MA acts as support or not…
Rally smells funny.
XLF,KRE (regional bank etf down), and Russell 2000 is barely up (about half of 1%). One would think the Russell should be flying (start of year-no more tax selling, etc).
Watching TWM (2X Small cap inverse) for a daytrade.
Bought a small block of GMO at 1.30
When it comes to my money the last person I’d trust is the one approaching in a suit.
I got some GMO too + some other bs $1-2ers
This is an interesting article about the Eagles’ sudden “revival.”
Read this article and then consider this — the entire organization, including the ownership, and its top veterans (which would include a certain Donovan McNabb) were (rumored to be) heavily invested with Madoff.
No shit.
Addendum: I am a huge Giant fan (as many know), and I consider the Eagles the toughest team to beat in the NFC playoffs right now.
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Now DevilDog can come here and talk shit about market dropping from here at pivot/resistance…
Contractor — you are in the minority.
You’d rather give your dough to a smelly hippy?
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Short MAC from $19 and long SRS this morning from $51.5…
And death puts on GS.
Jake-
Well I finished the year positive so yeah, I guess I am!
Nothing personal of course. You seem like someone with integrity and intelligence, which seems like a rare combination in the money management business.
What prints first?
FXP $29
SRS $49
I had my money with money managers ( in suits) at Chase- JP Morgan and while they did make me some profit…via very diversified computerized system, they lost all of the profit and some of my principle by Jan 08.
I decided they didnt know what was going on and if I was going to lose money I might as well take control of it and do it myself. Since then I have been all over the place studying and listening to advise, from young guys in tee shirts to old guys with Black AMX, bestselling books to internet books, blogs, blogs and more blogs….
NO one really knows what is truly going to happen. I try and apply my intuition to the advise I hear. I guess if I had to learn trading I picked the toughest market in recent history to get my battle scars. I figure if I survive this….I will be just fine.
Jake-
Wore the suit, been there done that, and the in-laws still did not listen. Maybe they think I am too young to listen to and decided to listen to their dinosaur buy and hold broker My time at a major investment bank listening to all of the bullshit analysts lends to me being a bear and a short seller. I quickly learned that brokers will do and say anything to get money in the door. Most of them don’t know shit and are nothing but glorified salesmen. They rely on the perma bullish firm to provide them with guidance. I can remember when the firm was pushing for the brokers to sell SIV’s built of CDO’s and the like. They were making serious cash selling this shit to investors. they used the yield as a selling point to sell to individuals whose need was current income. In short they fucked a lot of old people and they knew they were doing it, just for the money and revenue they made of the spread.
LG – No one wearing a suit cares about your money more than you do. Learn to fish and feed yourself forever, or however that saying goes.
I admit I’m a blue collar type of guy so my skepticism runs through my working man veins. Went to a no-name university and made my money swinging a hammer so there isn’t much about me that comfortably wears a suit.
Exactly Chart Addict, while I may be green in the trading world (one year under my belt in Feb)and everyone can make fun of me, at least I AM taking responsibility for my own prosperity and outcome. I AM Not surrendering my power over to ‘the man’ whoever that man may be.
Nothing personal of course. You seem like someone with integrity and intelligence, which seems like a rare combination in the money management business.
No offense taken, and don’t worry I’m not in the money management business (thank goodness).
I deal with much more illiquid assets, and more often than not, a suit is required.
That said, if you manage your money yourself, all bets are off — you can be as smelly a hippy as you like as long as you’re right and tight. 😉
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