I know what you’re doing. I see you over there, in your little, little chair. It looks like a fucking tripod for an old bullshit camera. You are all smug with confidence, thinking you are on the verge of creating electricity.
You have your little charts and your nice little marble paper weights, placed orderly on your mahogany desk; everything is so honkey dorey. Oh yes, you are very proud of your desk. It is made from a rare wood and it was passed down from a dead relative, which makes it even cooler/more expensive. Every night you polish it up real nice, then lay your fucking asshole charts on top of them, in preparation for the trading day ahead.
You are of the persuasion that the Federal Government is in the business of sucking the foreskin off investors, through low rates and free money. You believe everything is priced in and that the banks will not take King Kong cock sized writedowns next quarter. You think it is safe to swim in the waters, for your little fucking ruler points to a geometric pattern that indicates a “breakout.”
Your world is blissfully wonderful, and also jubilant, until (of course) Dr. Death steps into your office and urinates gasoline all over your dead relatives desk, then tosses a lit cigar onto your pile of neatly stacked queer charts.
Dr. Death brings bad news of unemployment and “fuck you, you’re dead” bankruptcies, to a variety of industries. He has the banks by the short hairs, forcing them to cut deals with delinquent borrowers, who are only 8 months late on their mortgage. These deadbeat fellows demand their banks drop the loan value by one third. Dr. Death makes it so.
He does not believe low rates do anything, since they are artificial. After all, without the communist bastards inside the U.S. government setting prices, LIBOR would be 10% by now.
Finally, he will set you free—if you would only let him into your house, so that he may “take a look” or piss at/on your finely polished mahogany desk.
Knock, knock
UPDATE: EE Times offers 20 predictions, for the semi industry, for 2009 (bulls, do not click).
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really, I was just wachin the trend that needs to be…it cant be based on gov programs or wishee washee desideratums sometimes things have to jell…
Wow. That was intense, my friend. That is old school flyonwallstreet.blogspot material.
My Dear Fly,
Happy New Year to you and every one else.
Good riddance to a horrific year. Margin calls and weekends in October & November waiting to see how the market would open were awful. Almost as bad as the smell of cordite mixed with napalm wafting through the air long ago.
So to one and all I say
Ti?n vô nh? n??c
Yes, old school. I like it.
This is you kick ass my man.
Have you thought of taking on more positions in your iETFs when this bullshit rally ends after tomorrow?
ZM
That should read Chuc Mung Nam Moi & Tien Vo Nhu Nuoc
Now that, that was awesome.
Happy New Year Fly. Fuck stocks and the people that own them.
Goldie,
Fly owns some stocks.
Nothing like throwing a bucket of cold water on reams of charts. Whatever rally that materializes will eventually be buried under stacks of wet blankets, so it won’t last. Agreed. After a brief respite, more pain to come.
Yet, I am obligated to trade any rally that presents itself. It’s in my blood, man.
Chivas,
So do I. I’m just ready for this low volume bullshit to be over already.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, NOT THE CHARTS!!!!
Fly,
you are a gifted individual, you are a blend of “larry david/arri gold”!!
happy new year to you and your family. now please take my money and make me rich like yourself 🙂
Put Me On – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6EbExP-d10
New lows by 1/12/09.
2009: Pots and Pans – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqOlGpZG6s4
“… fuck football.”
The Doctor is in
Been wondering if Libor/TED spread as guide could/should be discounted from gov’t sponsored inter-bank liquidity. Thx for including it in your narrative. Yes, like the post too, depicting directional message.
Fly aka Grim Reaper.Just a bundle of fucking sunshine.
Happy New Year!
In spite of rulers, marble paper weights & The Fly’s admonishing admonitions; 2009 will bring Dow 10K party hats, off the rubbish pile.
Oh yes, Dr. Death is in and ready to see you now.
Great post Fly, Happy New Year.
Reading this post was scarier than the movie Bride Of Chucky. I didn’t sleep for a week after that one.
Happy New Year to all.
Apple “iPad Touch” internet device rumors swirling again.
http://gizmodo.com/5121277/rumor-apple-launching-giant-ipod-touch-next-fall
Fly you are an eloquent and poetic bastard. Happy New Year to all..
Boomer,
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/12/30/large-form-ipod-touch-to-launch-in-fall-09/
I was on Apple’s campus this year and saw someone using a touch screen device, but it did not look like an iPhone, looked more like a Macbook, white plastic. At first I thought it was a kindle.
Also, Zunes failing en masse overnight. Maybe a MSFT trade in it?
http://gizmodo.com/5121311/reports-30gb-zunes-failing-everywhere-all-at-once
Devil Dog-
You make me laugh with the new lows shit. I love it and agree. Maybe not by 1/12/09, but sometime before March. We are due for the ceremonial Obama getting sworn in circle jerk rally. Everyone will rejoice because he is the Messiah. Oprah has stated so, therefore, it must be. Then reality will hit when GM and Ford crawl back to Congress in February, and it becomes clear that Obama’s super powers have been vaporized and that he is a normal guy that got handed a shit sandwich. He will dine on that sandwich and it will taste…well…shitty.
Please note that I am not a hater. I just laugh at all the ignorant sheep that are “getting back in” because the “rally is coming”. The market is going to use their nuts as a speed bag. It will be fast, painful, and shocking. The sheep are being led to slaughter…again.
This “Death” guy sounds like a dick. If I owned a time machine (I don’t… I think they’re kind of like a crutch: think Prozac) and knew that when he stopped by he was going to urinate on my desk and light my shit on fire, I just wouldn’t let him in.
-DT
Jake – http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/dec/30/krieger-goodbye-shanahan-hello-elway/
Any wagers on the jobless claims? Bet it is S H I T T Y.
I’ll guess 580-600k
My charts tell me to short this market. DD’s prediction of new lows by 1/12 looks likely.
Nice… When Dr. Death is done immolating the little bull, we can all feast on roast beast! Can someone please bring the horseradish sauce?
Thanks Fly! Happy New Year all.
WTF-FLY
You may be the greatest wordsmith I have read.
God bless you
I will cringe in a dark corner and wait until Fly says it is safe to come out.
People are so damn stupid. A new year comes EVERY YEAR. What the hell is so special about something that comes EVERY YEAR???? Just like a damn birthday. Meaningless BS.
The Big ‘D’ and Sugar Coated Placebo!!
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/12_2008.pdf
Was gonna say..classic stuff. Cuts deep – “asshole charts.” Happy I have a modern desk.
A few of the differences between Fly & Devildog
Fly makes predictions and gives reasons/backgroung
DD makes predictions but gives no reasons/background
If Fly is right (most times) or wrong, he will say why
If DD is right he will tell you; if wrong…silence
OT Good advice for the new yr. Why Less Is More
(Fly already does this stuff as evidenced by everything here)
http://gkicwebstore.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=472&Itemid=485&utm_nooverride=1
Happy New Year all!
Who was the impostor posting under The Fly’s nom de plume for the last 2 months.
Glad that the REAL Mr. Fly is back in all his egregious pessimism.
Happy Fucking New Year to all. 2009 will make 2008 look like 1999.
We rally from here people…. all you smug bastards think we make new lows which means we don’t
I trust the rally most that nobody else trusts
I am still looking for a 4600 point DOW rally today to get us to even.
“new lows by 1/12”
Ironic that the Dawg would take a snippet he read over the shoulder of his own neuro-psychiatrist so badly out of context…
_____
This post must be read with Nouriel Roubini accent.
Watch PFE….PFE is your tell.
Fly your a stud!
Bertha, the olive loaf and liverwurst sandwich maker, took a gasoline wiz on my bullshit charts last night.
Deductive reasoning leads me to conclude the little old sandwich maker in the wheeled chair is also Dr. Death.
Creepy. Who woulda thunk it?
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:FXY
+60% difference
It’s nice to find a doctor that still does house calls. Dr. D, representin’ the Hippocratic Oath!
I’ve been getting long SWHC down here near $2. I had a 5000 share bid @ 2.21
a few thousand filled and the remaining 3100 are sitting there. It looked like a
big lot compared to the 100 lot batches you usually see…. Someone is now bidding 200,000 @ 2.21 That’s a huge block for SWHC only 1 penny below current bid.
Heads up!
LMAO at the energy bears. let me guess, you were all bullish on oil at $140.
ERX prints 45 yet again
DevilDog Says:
New lows by 1/12/09.
First, i have to see the cascade down that started ‘yesterday’ according to you.
Then i will have to see your ‘New Lows for December’…which proved you wrong and i guess you moved your prediction forward…Thats easy’ if you are wrong, keep moving the date because eventually, the market drops and you come here screaming ‘I told you so’…Thats reversion to the mean or the up and down cycle…
Hope your 50000 SRS buy at 59 is working for you…OOPS
Market is still going up and a lot of indices are above the 50 ma today, we will see if it holds, but short term is up, wheter people like it or not, Mr Market dont care
My advise or predictions for 2009 (for what it’s worth from the peanut gallery)
Assess your situation with patience and self-restraint at the beginning of the New Year. Stop and get your bearings, make no moves that will produce permanent consequences until we have worked our way thru the initial period of confusion.
The situation calls out for a courageous leader who can direct the efforts of everyone concerned. Clear leadership needs to happen soon or the situation will simply smolder without any resolution. The goal is to make sure abundance is made available for everyone, or the highest possible outcome for the greatest number of people. Study the past to avoid pitfalls. Clear judgment,accountability and responsibility are demanded.
If this does not happen Ms Market will inflict discipline upon you and you will feel the pain of having NO CHOICES left. Discard false logic, reationalizations and denial, if you dont throw this baggage overboard now, you may be sunk by it later.
Be very careful in your choices, dont open yourself up to unnecessary trauma. We will be lucky to get thru this time without being abused. Such times as these can humble us and harm our feelings of security. This is a tough time-remain vigilant, it is not a safe environment.
Take small steady steps towards your long-term goal. If you plan long term you can accumulate magnificent results. Compound interest and developing gradually is the key. A slow and steady buildup that may not be seen daily will over time bear fruit. Choose wisely and humbly. If you create a long term plan you can safely secure your future.
Yes indeed they’re bidding for guns!
SWHC
I think the biggest lesson I got out of 2008 is: its better to be half a step behind than two steps ahead as the last two steps down are a doozy.
Freddy,
Don’t rule anything out.
Bought some LZR on the pullback under 7
Anyone know when all the tax nightmare proshares ETFs dividends pay? I thought they paid on 12/30, but I am not seeing record of it.
Dan,
I saw mine yesterday.
Bump:
Great year Fly, thank you for all the wisdom and keeping us on the dark side and out of bs longs.
Can you get Vincenzo to put on full RSS feeds again. It’s convenient to be able to read the whole post on the feed when one’s in a hurry. TIA
Watcher said:
Bump:
Great year Fly, thank you for all the wisdom and keeping us on the dark side and out of bs longs.
*************************************************
Yeah. He kept you from making HUGE PROFITS in the rally that began on the Generational Bottom of Nov. 20.
From Fly’s EE doom & gloom article:
Speaking of Micron, I am wondering who will survive the DRAM downturn. Samsung will survive, but it’s unclear who else will make it. For the most part, Qimonda is dead. Taiwan’s DRAMers, especially Powerchip and ProMos, will go under or will get acquired. Nanya could survive, but for how long?
Dat’s nanya bidness!!
_______
Generational Bottom-
Didn’t you call October the bottom?
LadyG – may the stock gods be good to you in the new year. Cheers.
Thank you Lady boca. We Ladies have to stick together 🙂
Many Blessings for the New Year
T-Moe — no, I think he was coming out around the last week in November.
________
happy new years all
& a Prospero Año to all and sundry from the PeeG.
At least until the blizzard hits the 902
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=xgo
Be Safe All.
Sometimes…
The truth just sucks.
Good trading and Happy New Year, iBC friends.
Happy New year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!