In an amazing display of bravery, coupled with idiocy, bulls are squeezing the lemons out of bears, into the final few days of ’08. Much to my chagrin, I find myself just watching this shit, in amazement, saddled with egregious inverse etf’s and loads of cash.
Typically the market sells off in the final days of any year. However, being that 2008 is the stupidest year ever recorded, naturally, the market is ripping higher. The fucking news is Armageddon like and every company in America will be a bank, inside of 6 months, in order to scalp some TARP cash.
Despite oil living in the $30 price range, big oil stocks are bucking the trend, going up in my face. Howsoever, short oil is a bet that I am more than willing to average into, for many of those levered up oil losers will be going out!
Select bank stocks, like GS and WFC, led the market higher, by the nose, sending my FAZ swan diving. Let me tell you, it’s easy to be short when the world appears to be ending. However, during times of jubilation, being short is equal to having your stomach roasted on the devil’s grill—always a bad experience.
I wanted to buy stocks this morning; but I didn’t. Instead of blindly chasing stocks here, I will opt to wait this rally out, then make my move in early ’09.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Shhhhhhh…
Listen VERY CAREFULLY ….
… I think I hear the market talking ..
…
……..
‘FUCK YOU BEARS YOU’RE DEAD !’
LMAO
ERY looks like an even better buy at 38.75…cocksucker!
“every company in America will be a bank, inside of 6 months, in order to scalp some TARP cash.”
LOL, so true.
It’s clearly a conspiracy. Cheaper for the PTB to catch a falling knife than to keep printing cash (well, maybe it’s the same fucking thing most days…)
Shit news + shitier news = markets jump.
Call me a conspiracy theorist if you like, but just know that you’re all a bunch of coincidence theorists then.
Man, the market really cascaded down today…
-DT
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, of great value to me rather than simply listing stock picks, which I do also appreciate. TBT is my current pain with cash seeking a good move, likely continuing the cash hold for “regular” volume next week, though if we would pop up next week dip buyers Friday morning upon bad jobs numbers could benefit. The TBT I want to dump if folks playing a tax move would swing from Treasuries back into equities next week.
CAP:
Go suck your own cock again.
DT:
You will be kicked out of the beach club. Notice has been sent.
What a stupid market. Don’t believe it until the volume comes back.
I stopped buying TBT, after it tanked under $40. Sometimes you have to cut the loss or be prepared to revisit a name at lower prices.
Steve Jobs RUMOR
Gizmodo Rumor: Apple’s (AAPL) Jobs Health Failing
Because of the number of rumors about the health of Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs, it is hard to know which has any validity. Jobs has suffered from islet cell neuroendocrine tumor a malignant growth in his pancreas, but has been in remission.
According to Gizmodo,”Steve’s health is rapidly declining. Apple is choosing to remove the hype factor strategically vs letting the hype destroy apple when the inevitable news comes later this spring.”
Maybe.
Alpha:
Exactly. How many times has this market given false hope? I rather wait until the volume returns.
STEVE JOBS IS DEAD.
Apparently, some gay monkey with AIDS raped him.
Developing…
Chief,
in the meantime, imho, you should keep the pic of the monkey in the front page.
thanking you in advance
the alcoholic.
https://www.freesnuggie.com/Default.aspx?MID=523323
the next sham wow
PS Im very short, still
lol
Chivas:
Go drink yourself into a stupor. You’ve “earned” it.
i wish i could Chief, but thank you.
# Freddy Krueger Says:
Light volume + market churning while becoming oversold and holding up = market is going up
December 29th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
# DevilDog Says:
Cascade DOWN starts tomorrow. Day 55.
December 29th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
30 December 2008
Market up 2% plus with a ratio of 4.35 winners to losers
Argue that one
SRS is a dumb play right now
WTF @ 3:40PM and beyond…
Fly,
I’m gonna make so much in 2009 that I’m gonna buy the beach club.
Write it down.
-DT
“The Beach Club” is NOT for sale. And, it is NOT open to the likes of you.
Listen, “Mr. 7 fishes,” if it’s not open to me, it’s not open to you.
-DT
I am already a member. You are not invited.
Done for my two day hold of SMH.
Thanks SMH.
Going to dine on a grilled red wine marinated flank steak filled with prosciutto,Fontina and Basil with a Cabernot-Shallot reduction.
Too bad my kid just wants a Chick-Fil-A sandwich.
“Beach Club” = “Homo Fag Play Pen”
The DevilDog contrary indicator wins again!
Fed is buying 500 billion MBS in January 2009…How you like that one DevilDog?
Don’t beat yourself up, guessing what the fascist gubmint will do next is hardly a workable investment strategy.
The beach club lies atop an atoll south of Poontang Island.
God cries lemon drops and laughs with marshmallow smiles on Poontang Island.
On Poontang.
Island.
we are just another 30 points away from the SP500 resistance so do not get overly bullish, i actually sold little bit QLD/SSO today into the rally. But i do not think it is a time to go short yet…
Market is going up short term wheter people like it or not, Its the market cycle up
And Mr Market is oversold…
Two for the kitchen and bathroom, one for the car and one for the boat…
I prefer West Coast Beach Clubs as they are good year ’round…
Oil is going higher.
The market is going higher.
The fly is going to get his wings ripped off in early ’09.
au revoir…off to use my special sham wow
Freddy Krueger,
The market by some metrics is the most overbought since 2006
Trading day is over. I’m waiting for The Fly to post a sweet rap video and bring me back in time.
Great year Fly, thank you for all the wisdom and keeping us on the dark side and out of bs longs.
Can you get Vincenzo to put on full RSS feeds again. It’s convenient to be able to read the whole post on the feed when one’s in a hurry. TIA
hell yeah, end the year right with some ‘This is how we chill, from ’93 till’ or similar will ya..
..or maybe some old 3rd Bass..
watching you holding on to 200k of that C stock over those few days will go down in history around here..
Tony Says:
Freddy Krueger,
The market by some metrics is the most overbought since 2006.
Whos metrics and what? I do have my own custom stuff. If that was the case, you have missed a lot of gains long and short sides since then, and the move up since november 21 low.
The market is ABSURDLY expensive based upon eps estimates for ’09.
Again, it is ABSURDLY expensive.
Fly,
What is your estimate for ’09? I’ve seen from $65 to $40. I’ll become bullish once we reach 10X ’09. For now I’m assuming $50 for a $500 target on SP500…I like round #’s
Special Delivery for Mistah Devil Dawg! Special Delivery foah Mistah Devil Dawg!
____________
“The Beach Club” is NOT for sale. And, it is NOT open to the likes of you.
There can be ONLY one:
Silver Gull
Breezy Point
(Crooklyn Old School Division)
___________________
Sun & Surf
Atlantic Beach Club (“ABC”)
Malibu Beach Club
(Lawn Guyland – Drunken Irish Division)
_______________
Silver Point
Sands Club
Catalina Beach Club
(Lawn Guyland — Tribal Princess division)
______________
Lawrence Beach Club
(Lawn Guyland — Accentless Preppy WASP Prick Division)
____________
Joisey — all entries forfeited due to medical waste issues.
__________
Too bad my kid just wants a Chick-Fil-A sandwich.
Not being from the Southern Parts, I was only recently introduced to the joys of Chick-Fil-A.
I can say with humility that it is egregiously hands down the best fast food on the planet, any category.
No shit.
‘Specially “the Deluxe.”
One other thing. Go to one in a decent suburb anywhere at lunch and it is quite literally “MILF Central.”
Apparently, hot MILF’s kids love their chicken nuggets.
____________
Tyler —
Braveflaps has it much closer than you, I’m afraid.
Poor sot.
_________
http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/081230/1624_id.html?.v=1
EPS estimates according to who??? accountants? analysts? EPS can and are being manipulated by accounting tricks. I always laugh at them…How many times have you seen a good EPS company and have crappy charts? How many times have you seen a non EPS company and the charts is awesome and easy to trade?
For example; Banks like GS, Bearns Stearns, Lehmans have awesome EPS at the beginning of the year and supposed to increase during the year?
What happened?
OEW Recap for today:
“After retesting last weeks low on monday at SPX 857. The market has rallied to take out last weeks high at 887 on very light volume. Tomorrow will probably be even quieter than today, and friday January 2nd will probably not be all that much different. With a slight negative divergence on the hourly charts the market may pullback tomorrow and into friday. However it should stay within the range of the last two weeks. Still looks like this uptrend has a lot more to go on the upside medium term. As soon as the SPX breaks through the 912 pivot it should be on its way. It’s unlikely that will occur before next week. Happy New Year!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend from SPX 741 still underway
LONG TERM: bear market rally”
Song for Squeezed Lemons:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNrhG2sQg-c
Chivas! TSO baybee!
Goin’ ta $28!
_______
LOL. sooner rather than later.
you read that tracinda is out of ford? still has big stake in tso.
tracinda is the pawn not the queen.
Im not arguing, its just the same people and analysts that downgraded the banks last week and rate stocks are the one issuing the EPS projections. Trust me, if a company dont know, how a freaking suit at GS knows?
And then, a company makes 3.99 eps one quater and miss the forescast by 1 cent, stock drops 30%…
It just a game, but the charts tells you the truth.
Fly
What do you think of FXY instead of a money market to hold cash?
I personally don’t understand your gold prediction Fly. Even if the prices of things go down, we’re still flooding the markets with our dollars. So the ratio of dollars to gold is going to get fucked up. There’s only a certain amount of gold in the world. Gold can only go up.
The Todd appreciates all forms of beauty.
Freddy,
I agree with you about analysts and accountants but for the overall market EPS can be more reliable since it is so widely used. I would never buy a company based on earnings alone. I look at chart setup, relative price strength vs. index and sector before making a decision.
Chivas,
I think Kerkorian was right when he said he lived a year too long….
_________
I personally look at relative ranking not against a index, but relative to each one stock against each other. Same for earnings. Indexes for me are capitalization weighted, so it distorts the picture, but that just me…im picky and very wonkish as a trader
Hallelujah! Shanahan fired from the Broncos!
Add to my 2009 predictions that John Elway will be named the new coach of the Broncos, and that they will win next year’s superbowl.
Put down the bong, Boom.
Ready to abandon your Titties so soon?
(warranted, I know, but…)
________
I have never had an affinity for the Titans. Can’t get past the Oilers powder blue accents.
This is for Jake- A Chick-fil-a chicken biscuit give away.
http://www.chick-fil-a.com/breakfast/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28438434
Anyone else think SRS behaved almost normally over the last two days?
Just in time for a Steven King-style shitstorm in CRE:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/31/business/31office.html?_r=1
blogo apointed a guy this is the end
more hubris that that is mathmatical impossiblity
Amazonmp3 has a Beethoven compilation download, 99 Essential Masterpieces, for $1.99. Worth it. Enjoy.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001NWULS0/ref=dm_ty_alb
A video about analysts and a year lookback
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opIDb0JDWaQ
Now you see how i see it
The S&P Index Compilers estimate 2009 S$P earnings at $80 plus
At an average PE Ratio of 16, that means the S%P would trade at 1280, which is 40% HIGHER that it is now.
And the Fly / Devildog is SHORTING here?
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,6,0,0,0,0,0.html
Whoa! I’m amazed that there is an ongoing discussion @ what ’09 will look like. What I see is a carload of Chinese/Russki clowns killing the Madoff family in slow-mo, Hank Paulson marching in the Gay Pride Parade in N.O., and an endless stream of senate hearings on the merits of Ford Fusions vs. Chevy Mailibu’s survivorship, the size and volume of Blago’s testi’s, the merits of Harry Reid existing past 21010, and the demise of the entire banking industry, followed by the auto industry, the steel industry, the oil industry, and the pencil industry; in that order. I think I’m
going long AXB, and then moving to NZ, if they need me..
Anyone’s CNBC frozen at the “Point ‘N Paint” commercial?
Bennet Sedacca
12:10:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
What will you do when…
…Your money fund closes? I have been a proponent of prudence (oh goodness, not THAT word again) for the past 18 months and have owned Treasury-Only Money Funds. My prudence is now being tested as the fund I invested in closes to new investors and my yield goes to 0.
What to do? I was talking with Minyan Peter about it and I really don’t like the idea of sitting in any investment vehicle and actually paying a fee to the brokerage firm for the privilege of doing so. Talk about a lousy risk/reward. But this is what the Fed and Treasury are meaning to do, no? Penalize prudence. I could move the assets to ordinary money funds at 0.5% yields, but, ummm, no thanks. More lousy risk/reward. I mean if the Fed weren’t standing there buying CP, these funds would surely break the buck.
So I suppose you could leave it in cash, but let’s say the portfolio has $5 million in cash. You are only insured up to $250,000 on the cash so you can buy Treasury Bills at 100 only to see them mature at 100. That seems like loads of fun–I am sure my staff would just love that exercise!
Or, as Peter pointed out to me, one can ask for a ‘guaranteed transactional account’, one where you can have a large cash balance if you so choose.
The Fed and Treasury are testing my patience, and fortunately there are pockets of value, so my firm’s cash balances are actually rather low. But we have to work harder and harder each day to prudently invest our clients’ and our own capital. In other words, many will be forced into risk whether they like it or not. This will be disguised as coming economic strength, but don’t believe it folks. It is a sucker’s bet, but one that I think will play out. And once they are sucked in, we will head lower yet again. But this is the intermediate bullish case.
I may not like it, but I also cannot ignore it.
GenerationOilBottom,
You really think S&P can forecast or assemble any worthwhile data…I guess they did a great job with debt ratings
The s n p will earn 45 bucks in 09, you fucking imbecile.
No one will figure that out until halfway through 2009 therefore reality is meaningless.
Back from vacation in Trader Caddy’s back yard–TPC Sawgrass. JAX is cool. Hot chicks everywhere you look. Cool place.
Thanks for filling in for me, TC.
I see a shit load of bad news was again bought by ADBs while I was away. More bullshit fucking war, more Madoff news, more awful retail data, more bleak consumer data, more market bullshit.
The Fly is God.
Fly, is FNM a buy considering this eve’s FED actions?
Fly,
I know I got shot down with dollar cost averaging the other day. Don’t wait. If you know you are going to buy, buy now.
I spent most of the day yesterday looking for prognosticators calling for a positive move next year… and was surprised by how many I found…
I posted the top ten here (In Letterman form):
http://www.goodnewseconomist.com
Your top predictions the other day didn’t make it, but I can still sense the good in you “the emperor has driven it from you fully!”
GNE
PS. I didn’t post any of Danny’s predictions either…
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008-12-30-2009-stock-market-rebound_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b886520-d6a2-11dd-9bf7-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Apparently…there is no longer an ability (by some here) to…
…“PLAN THE TRADE…TRADE THE PLAN” !!!
————————————————–
An observation:
It’s impossible to be “wrong”…
…when you make “5 calls per day”…
…each of them…leaning in “5 different directions”…
…only, to flip flop all 5 of them tomorrow…
…and do it ALL over again…and over again…and over again…
…tomorrow and tommorow and tommorow !!!
——————————————————
Well…it makes for great reading !
Makes for great ENTERTAINMENT !!!
I know I’m glued to my pleather office chair each and every day to witness the “ongoing trainwreck” !!! fwiw
But…hey…
———————————————
Not mentioning names…not necessary…
…UHHHHH…
“If the FOO shits…WEAR IT” !!!
.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Lessons-learned-about-markets-life/story.aspx?guid=%7B676B24DC%2DDF7F%2D4B9B%2DA584%2D80A5A3388026%7D&dist=hplatest
There is no way this is the bottom. Too many asshats saying 2009 will be an up year. I remember the tech bubble. Same thing was happening at the end of 2000. Nobody gave a fuck about tech stocks by the end of 2002. This bubble is way bigger and it has much much more to go before it is fully deflated. Someone please answer me this question. How are banks going to make money over the next year when they are not loaning shit? Re-fi is a fucking joke. Rates have been at record lows since 2002. Fly already covered all that already. Anyone think unemployment has already peaked? You think the real estate ATM is coming back? Fuck no!! Not only that the consumer is so fucking shell shocked the whole psychology of the US is doing a tectonic shift right now. That spend like there is no tomorrow shit is over!! Keep trying to catch that falling knife. All that is going on right now is that the knife is going to drop from a few floors higher. You better order some sham-wows to clean up the blood.
GNE your blog reminds me of this..
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html
1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators
Chart locations are an approximate indication only
1. “We will not have any more crashes in our time.”
– John Maynard Keynes in 1927
2. “I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool’s paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future.”
– E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
“There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity.”
– Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
3. “No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment…and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding.”
– Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
4. “There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”
– Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
5. “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.”
– Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
“This crash is not going to have much effect on business.”
– Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
“There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday… I have no fear of another comparable decline.”
– Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
“We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices.”
– Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
6. “This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan… that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.”
– R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
“Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted”
– E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
“Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks… Unless we are to have a panic — which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom.”
– R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
7. “The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services…America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin.”
– Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
“Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street.”
– The Times of London, November 2, 1929
“The Wall Street crash doesn’t mean that there will be any general or serious business depression… For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game… Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before.”
– Business Week, November 2, 1929
“…despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation…”
– Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
8. “… a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall.”
– HES, November 10, 1929
“The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most.”
– Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
“In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect.”
– Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
“Financial storm definitely passed.”
– Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
9. “I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism… I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress.”
– Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
“I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence.”
– Herbert Hoover, December 1929
“[1930 will be] a splendid employment year.”
– U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 1929
10. “For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright.”
– Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
11. “…there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over…”
– Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
12. “There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about.”
– Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
13. “The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”
– Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
“… the outlook continues favorable…”
– HES Mar 29, 1930
14. “… the outlook is favorable…”
– HES Apr 19, 1930
15. “While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst — and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us.”
– Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
“…by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent…”
– HES May 17, 1930
“Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over.”
– Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
16. “… irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery…”
– HES June 28, 1930
17. “… the present depression has about spent its force…”
– HES, Aug 30, 1930
18. “We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression.”
– HES Nov 15, 1930
19. “Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible.”
– HES Oct 31, 1931
20. “All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed… and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S.”
– President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
I made a post on that stuff on Sept 23: http://weeklyta.blogspot.com/2008/09/1929-vs-2008-financial-headlines.html
Yup C/A I have seen that all over the internets. I took a peek at GNE’s blog and that immediately popped in my head. GNE is probably a fucking government propaganda blog.
history and their idiots do repeat themselves.
This is year-end Fuckery. If you think into this market action you are an Idiot. Bail Outs ETC are old news. We could see a War or two next year. Iran will test Obama. Protectionism will start to surface around the world. We will see riots and prison stocks will be hot. Unemployment will rule. The biggest ponzi sceem [Social Secuity] will be exposed. Sounds fucked up but so is the world at this time. I am not predicting this shit. In simple terms [everyting from last year is built into the market] It is time to think different. Fly’s swing trade message might be a good start.