The banks are not having a bad day. Instead, they are having a horrendous day, with out sized losses in WFC, JPM, MS, USB and most of the REITS. As you know, my largest position is FAZ, which is deep in the red, following last weeks torture melt. However, it’s only a matter of time before our favorite banks start warning and raising capital again.
Some pacific coast banks that should trade lower, include: PACW, WABC, ZION, EWBC and PCBC. I would throw FED in there, but that fucker is already $2 bucks.
In the short term, the market is going to follow the money. If desperate hedge fund managers want to jack up the market, in order to “save their year,” they will. Eventually, the masses will come to their senses and bid down stocks, much to the chagrin of pigeon brained asset managers, like Bill Miller.
Today’s theme is “fuck the dollar,” with t-bills selling off to boot. In the short term, money flowing out of t-bills is great for stocks. However, looking down the road, if we see the dollar continue to weaken, coupled with yields going up in t-bills, that can be seen as a vote of no confidence from other governments to fund our deficit. That is something to look for, down the road.
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The Fly is a Zombie.
And yes, fuck the banks. Except mine. SRS to googol
some names from early ’08
a blast from the past
Fly is contributing his share of bricks to this wall of worry rally.
DXO is a monster. I am in from 2.65 and loving it while building into DUG on its way down.
To the folks trying to pick a top here: carefull being short this market.
My impression is that every sell-off will be absorbed for the next few months. The action in this market is eerily similar to that of 1929. We got the 50% peak-to-trough sell off this year just like we did in 1929. Students of market history will also remember that the 50% sell off (from 386 to 195 on the DOW) led to a 50% rally from 195 over the course of 6 EXACTLY months to 295. To put the current market in perspective, we bottomed at 7450. A 50% rally would take us to 11,175. I know it seems impossible, but just be aware that we’d be merely repeating history.
Keep your minds open.
-Phil
FLY: Any fortune cookies for GS qtr next week?
I think DevilDog is Attilla
http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2008/12/rinse-and-repeat.html
Fly: what’s that old rust bucket you call PPT say on SWHC?
If I may be so bold as to ask.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=swhc < has book value @ $2.40
Longs are fucked!
Tony, you live with DevilDog??
Fuck the Banks
Karl Marx would be proud.
any opinion on CME?
Doubt The Fly at your own peril.
Phil – good point. During this cycle, I haven’t heard anyone say the old saw that a bear market rally is heralded as a new “bull market” before it smacks traders with another vicious down leg. I don’t think we can compare the action in this market to the 2000-2002 bear. This one is much more vicious. Ultimately, I believe DevilDog will be proven right, but not before a lot more pain on the upside.
This just in…Vladimir Putin is concerned the US is hiding at least two strategic missiles under the sweater of Michelle Caruso-Cabrerra. Developing…
Yogi,
My thesis exactly. Is America fucked? Definitely. Is the DOW headed to 3000 or lower over the next 5 to 10 years? Most probably. But could we continue to grind-the-fuck-up for the next few months while short-sellers give back all their gains? I believe so.
-Phil
sweet move in UCO…x2 crude long
USB going down. All aboard!
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1137672320081211
Speaking of coffee
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/391566_sbuxrivals11.html
Juice,
I was the first one to say DD was Atilla. Credit where credit is due!
New lows this month.
I’m not Atilla.
Are you Tony?
BP, didn’t see your comment … must be a case a fantastically brilliant minds melding
D-dog .. maybe new lows this month, or more likely you’ll have to wait for your fresh lows some time in ’09.
The command is at 1:13 BAYONETS!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP7UG1BfH2E
SLW -Low cost producer of silver. May be huge winner long term
Phil,
That would mean that the Market is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do, take away as much of the herds money as possible as fast as it can on both sides of the trade.
MVIS Lives
REDMOND, Wash.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and imaging products today announced that it has been awarded a $750,000 contract to perform initial engineering tasks that support development of a High-Definition (HD), full-color, see-through eyewear display. The name of the customer was not released for confidentiality reasons.
The development effort includes demonstration of a unique design approach of a HD system based upon Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology. The work under the contract is consistent with Microvision’s continued development of a lightweight see-through optical system and could lead to a variety of eyewear display applications.
Microvision’s eyewear display platform is being designed to combine its miniature PicoP display engine technology with clear eyewear optics that channel light and direct it to the viewer’s eye creating a bright, full color, see-through image while maintaining a transparent view of the surroundings. In addition to the see-through capability, this platform is expected to be differentiated from competitive offerings by its attractive ergonomics and ease-of-use.
“Customers are seeking new ways to deliver real-time, mission critical information,” stated Ian Brown, Microvision VP of Marketing and Sales. “We believe Microvision’s PicoP-enabled eyewear technology could provide competitive advantages for these customers due to its inherent qualities of high-brightness, compact form-factor, full-color and see-through clarity.”
regarding the 1929 comparisons, the amount of leverage and pure fuckery in the system is much worse than 1929 imo
Jatput,
they say “but this time the government is behind us!” LOOOOOL
Clowns
Who’s Atilla? Could DD be specific in his low prediction?
The love affair with Jamie Dimon is nauseating…get off your knees Erin….
Fuck you England