Looking at some of my Godly indicators, I can tell you with a certain amount of certainty, barring martians landing on the NYSE and buying up all of our companies on the cheap this afternoon, we should close down between 2-5%.
The blood in the Dow and top Nasdaq stocks are too much to overcome, especially on a grim Friday afternoon.
You can fuck around all you want, playing with oil, banks and tech; but at the end of the day, this fucker eats pavement.
On the other hand, the stubbornness of the banks/Chinese cocksuckers is quite impressive. As a result, I’ve been buying small quantities of JPM, willing to lose money on the trade, just to hedge the upside on my insane FAZ position.
Remind me to never buy/sell 300% etf’s again.
Speaking of which, I’ve been buying ERY, which is also a lunatic etf. I must admit, all of this leverage rattles my cage a bit. As sure as I’m sitting here, in my non-staples chair, truckloads of unwashed peasants are throwing away the inheritance in this instruments of hell.
Where’s the SEC? I mean, the reason why we are in this position is due to excessive leverage, no?
The answer: let uneducated idiots try it too!
Unfuckingbelievable.
The breakdown in oil/gas is pervasive. It is infected the psyche of our dear friends in the middle east and Venezuela. Expect massive bankruptcies in the space, inside of 12 months. Many of this ham and eggers mismanaged at the top. As a result, Russia will be forced to devalue its currency, within 3 months.
Write it down.
Once again, money is flooding into treasuries. Is it a coincidence that ever since Paulson doled out billions to the banks there has been a parabolic move up in treasuries? Do you think some of our banking executives are stashing the money in t-bills, instead of lending it out?
Get the fuck…
One sector with marginal strength are the mortgage players: NLY, CMO, ANH and RWT. The theory: with mortgage rates coming down, people will start to refinance again. Who knows?
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Yup
Once again, money is flooding into treasuries. Is it a coincidence that ever since Paulson doled out billions to the banks there has been a parabolic move up in treasuries? Do you think some of our banking executives are stashing the money in t-bills, instead of lending it out?
That would make them useless parasites. There must be another explanation.
Scum bucket: I think their mantra right now is “not to fail”. Being useless is not a concern — parasites just suck the host dry, which is pretty much what they’re doing.
Not very much volume for a Friday and a day that we have the worst job numbers since the 70’s
FLy-
Nice call on JPM for a quick trade
HIG is going ape shit.
FLY
What would be your top three shorts of oil/nat gas companies that may go under in the near term?
Paulson is buying the damn treasuries. Ref: Quantitative Easing. Crank up the printing presses.
Take a look at DEE – UltraShort Commodities – it’s beating all of the stock market UltraShorts!
ERX prints $45 someday.
NOV is looking strong considering how fucked up energy is right now.I will buy more on the dips.
Market holding up well despite the bad news. Could we see a late day rally? I’m going to be betting against it
Popa – Bill Miller is buying the dips today.
Mortgage delinquencies @ 7%, unemployment @ 7%…
What’s not to love?
Time for the “fuck it, we’re all gonna die” rally.
The Martians have landed. Don’t forget to “just say no” to 300% ETFs.
This is secretary Paulson here.
I am the Lizard King.
My Martian friends and I will PPT this mother fucker up in your face because we can !
So we will destroy the world while reaping the rewards.
Watch this market bump along the bottom today and then my Martian friends and I will buy triple leverage products and some futures to create a WTF move to the upside.
Hope you shorted SKF at your own will when it was 6 dollars higher?
“Huge Job Losses Could Be Signal That Worst Is Over”
Headline on CNBC
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
What about all the layoffs that are being announced everyday
…little green men spotted in the exchange. Developing.
It’s Fucktarded Friday.
Anything can happen.
FAZ yummy at $54
Here’s a fun experiment:
I’m going to invest in gravity and see if that shit won’t blow up, too.
Wheeeee, here we go spinning off into space…
fly, thanks I didn’t know yesterday.
TARP is working..financials are saved..banks have started lending again.. 🙂
perspective.
Some idiot on CNBC is saying that this is the worst number since the 1974.
US population is 1974 213 million Pop now 300 million.
number on proportional basis is still 1/3 lower than in 1974.
fucking innumerates around the place is really quite worrying.
I would not be surprised if we closed up 100 today. Write it down.
This market is depressing. Bulls held 8100 for now. But the volume on this “bounce” is lame.
-DT
Dat derrs a big ole bull trap bubba. Us bears gonna eat good tonight!
The strength in banks and fins the last two days is impressive … almost makes one think some of them will survive to build a new bubble and crash again in 5 or 6 yrs
No it’s Van Damme Friday….
Van Dammit!
_______
Ever since you went to work hungover, your time machine has been off….did you take it for a joy ride Thanksgiving night and knock some instruments loose?
God doesn’t take speed…
DT —
Volume on the entire day has been lousy, and yet uniform.
Odd, no?
_______
Yep buckeye, which is why I think banks are a great bet. Their write downs are big, but the spread income they can earn is astronomical.
the market to market change is also a big story as they don’t have to mark if they have liabilities that match duration. this a really big story.
But they’ll crash in 5 or 6 years time. That’s when we’ll see the crash.
JPM, C and BAC are up. I really don’t see how the market can fall if these turkeys stay up. I know it’s not fair saying this at the bears picnic but someone has to.
Thunderpup, Yeah, I’ve got a french poodle, an M60, AR15, .45 Colt Combat Commander, grenades and some M-18A1s…you got a problem with that?
Hey no probs Dog. I take it back the market is heading down with that kind of ammo I hope the market crashes today. Dude just don’t go postal on us, ok.
I am a regular poster here. You would know my handle if you saw it. I need to share two pieces of information with you but need to do it anonymously and vaguely.
My brother is a reporter. He has learned, off the record, that a major consumer brand is about to announce a downside surprise, hiring freeze, and layoffs. He’s been told the holiday shopping season is grossly below the worst forecasts. It is worse than abysmal. The ticker would shock you as this company sometimes appears to be invincible.
Second, he was part of a communications industry conference and had an off the record conversation with a well known and respected CEO. The business is falling off a cliff. Drastically.
My point in sharing this is to tell you that the bad news is not priced. The bad news is getting worse.
Thank you for your time and attention.
DDawg — standard or mini?
___________
Regular-
Don’t give anything away or anything, but does the invincible consumer brand rhyme with that favorite every day energy food?
“Scrapple?”
________
Regular Poster – you seem very gay.
My guess: COST.
Fucking homebuilders. What a load of bs, the market is getting obliterated, and they stage an intraday rally that makes it seem like their ridiculous 2 week 100%+ rally is still in tact.
Mark my words, this rally is OVER for the homebuilders and related institutions. They have run so fast that there is too much money in them to just turn right back around. The real sell-off will commence at the end of the day and there will be blood in the streets next week.
Wait consumer brand. hmmm: NKE
Yes, I am gay. You have good gaydar. I would expect nothing less from a Bull Moose. Meow!
He does sound a little gay.
Regular Poster- Has your brother ever heard of insider trading and has the well known CEO ever heard of the post-Enron public disclosure regs?
Nice arsenal, Dog, but the M1/M1A is really God’s rifle. I highly recommend you acquire one. Claymores? Are those legal? M60 – nice, fire it much?
Anyone know of any gun companies worth trading besides SWHC and RGR?
What goes up must come down. What goes down, stays the fuck down.
Breadth is 3:1 negative. Dont know how the tape is keeping away from the ugly tree, seeing as how Europe was -4%. Im staying close to the buy button marked QID …. but wanna see todays low busted out first.
Regular Poster Says:
I am a regular poster here. You would know my handle if you saw it. I need to share two pieces of information with you but need to do it anonymously and vaguely.
The holiday shopping season is grossly below the worst forecasts. It is worse than abysmal.
Second, he was part of a communications industry conference and had an off the record conversation with a well known and respected CEO. The business is falling off a cliff. Drastically.
My point in sharing this is to tell you that the bad news is not priced. The bad news is getting worse. ”
No shit Sherlock! Do you think that 98% of the people on this BB and 99% of the big market players don’t already know all of this? (Maybe not one SPECIFIC company, but we KNOW the general situation.
Your so-called “news” is factored in.
The only reason we have a commodity selloff and low oil prices is HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATION.
Socks BOTTOMED on Oct 10 and Nov 20.
j, you don’t have to worry until I pickup a used F4J Phantom.
Regular Poster, I live in a Wisconsin town where the housing bubble never popped. Foreclosures are low and they are still building homes everyday. Now for the odd part. Yesterday they started laying of people at Target, right before the holiday season. We are all fucked.
Thunderpup, if giving C $300B is legal then having Claymores is legal as far as I’m concerned. Yes I do.
Oil Top Picker:
You’re out of your damn mind.
Now if you said, “we can rally from here until the New Year,” I’d give you the benefit of the doubt.
So what do you think, one bad year and that’s it? Back to buying CSCO again?
Look at 73-74. 2000-2002.
At a minimum, we are down 2 years.
Anton,
Gravity is a strong sell right here also.
http://www.thunderbolts.info/
“Socks BOTTOMED on Oct 10 and Nov 20.”
My fourth grade daughter just figured out that the next bottom will be Dec 30.
You’ve been warned.
Dog
When I saw that arsenal factory you have stashed away, i’m the biggest bear on this board by a texas mile. When you take aim just know I stand behind you bro.
It’s all the other fuckers you should aim at, not me. That bulltard, generational low, deserves to go first. Just remember I with you all the way.
Dog-
I don’t think I’ll ever doubt you’re serious about this. Just try to laugh once a day, huh?
Dow internals falling apart. Look for a new leg down, after 1.
I know about a job fair in the area here and the Company was looking to hire about ten new customer service people at $10/hr. The place was packed with about 450-500 people. Some were attorneys, mortgage and bank types, PHDs, etc.
I truly feet bad for them.
DD should be grateful that Obama didn’t appoint Janet Reno again so maybe another Waco can be ruled out (for now).
“Despite Huge Job Losses, The Worst Could Be Over”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28069440
As long as people continue to say the worst is over, the worst is NOT over.
Master Fly talking about “internals” makes me tingle inside…
Ya, bottom picking is the worst paid job. Monkeys pick bottoms, clowns play with tops. Bottoming is a process, not an event.
And, er … thats it.
Run out of sayings fa now.
(All boring, but true. Mebbe pepper the above with swear words to make it a bit more interesting.
The Company is hiring? They told me they were cutting back. Bastards.
Hmm, I wonder if we’ve bottomed yet. Maybe this chart from Dec. 1st will tell us:
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/mega-bear-quartet-large.gif
GMXR -its not tool ate to short
Fly, let oil top picker keep buying please. Remember we need SSF stupid cows.
I’m seeing the possibility this thing could go sideways for a few days and frustrate the hell out of everyone.
The exact opposite happened.
Sharp rebound in XOM, CVX giving the Dow a jolt.
Here come the homies, again.
Jakey-poo,
Indeed, volume is lame. I hope that’s because people are tired of selling here and that we take off into the close… much to “the Fly’s” chagrin.
-DT
10% of all US mortgages are delinquent or in foreclosure. This is staggering. The banks cannot survive. No way.
WILL FINISH AT THE HIGHS OF THE DAY!!!!
DD,
Are you familiar with the Baker Act?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Involuntary_commitment
Ozark,
Very interesting “research” by Dr. Talbot. I think I dropped a contribution into his “research cup” on my way to breakfast this morning.
Personally, I’m feeling more like Larry Talbot lately, howling at the moon and whatnot.
How are things going for you and your clients? Everybody relaxed and optimistic?
Uh oh!…HERE COMES SANTA!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVRmXc8PPqk
I am not liking this bullshit tape at all…we bounced off critical levels on the DOW at 8130ish…Hopefully, 3pm should give the final “hammer down”…
FXP getting ASS RAPED! CHL is destroying it.
Looks like HD is riding along with homies, getta grip and HIG continues to power up, go figure
Donny nice job on your last pile oo DUG.
I tried the 23.63 spot on DIG yesterday, went up some but fell apart.(Should have bailed before the day ended)
This morning, even though it didn’t look good, it held above that mark,then collapsed. I took a 30 cent hit. I am regrouping in the 22.10 area after a test of 21.71. I’m trading for a few hours not days on this one. Entering small position, 1 to 3 hundred at a time.
gapping,
Thank you for that “word picture,” but as an owner of that POS, believe me, you are being too upbeat.
Hey, everything’s cool in Chiner, right? America will soon place an order for 300 million melamine sandwiches to solve our unemployment problem and the ChiComs will be up to their silly Mao caps in gravy, no?
C up 4%…C wants $10 bad. load up. Next time the market goes up, C will rocket up
This is just what I wanted to see as we can now sell off into the close and the weak SHORTS will be gone and we can close at the lows without a bounce and first thing Monday we can start slaughtering the herd all week long. Hint: the bailout yes or no is bad either way. No rally until January b-4 expirations in anticipation of the giant stimulus package that will cure all our problems. I’ll ride that stupid rally for a while UNTIL THE STUPID COWS FIGURE OUT THAT MORE MASSIVE NATIONAL DEBT WILL NOT FIX OUR MASSIVE NATIONAL DEBT PROBLEM…DUH.
USO@34
AND [email protected]
Everyone on this thread is an OTB junkie. What with your 3X ….
I wonder how many 2.5″ Ribeyes that fucker Phil LeBeau has eaten on the Big 3’s AMEX card. He is starting to annoy just slightly.
stepped out to get some coffee and i come back and we rallied, what happened, any good news or just more b.s.??
I picked a bottom once, ended up with an interesting butt nugget for a momento. Good times.
Yeah, jig, the Martians have landed.
We are saved.
What? No, wait, I just figured it out:
“To Serve Man” is a cookbook!
Granpa-
I sold DUG and moved to UYG for a very short trade. Though I think the banks are screwed, they’re indicating awesome strength today. However, I’ll likely reverse my trade in the final hour, because I think we could meltdown.
Good luck.
Excellent stuff, truly top notch.
http://richardkiel.com/TwilightZone3.jpg
Funny that some of the best writing on teevee was done 50 years ago by Uncle Rod. Gave some of our finest scene-chewing actors their breaks, too, like The Shatner in “Terror at 20,000 Feet.”
Don-meister –
“10% of all US mortgages are delinquent or in foreclosure.”
Don’t believe the hype. Foreclosure rate (nationally) is still under 3%.
The # of US homeowner’s ‘delinquent’ bounces around the 3-6% range with the previous high of 6.07% in 1985.
Current delinquency rate (which means anyting over 30 days past due) is 6.99%.
No biggie.
My customers are all happy happy joy joy (at least the ones that are still around). It’s like the market doubled instead of being halved this year. They keep repeating that it is a good time to buy.
We need more pain.
Ozark, seriously, how do you deal with people who come in looking for portfolio help? Do you tell them that they’re better off buying guns & ammo or go with the “good stocks are a phenomenal buy right now” line?
I’ve been looking for a new CPA and am interviewing private bankers and it seems like nobody knows what to do other than spout aphorisms and quote Buffet.
Donny, I’m starting to ease out of the DIG trade. A buck plus is OK for me. I’ll get out like I got in a little at a time.
Fly,
your words of wisdom would be greatly appreciated here as this market is turning…
a quick perusal of the comments here and it appears 90% are bearish 5 % apocalyptic and the other 5% are bottom calling…hmmm…developing
TLT beginning to top out here?
Wrong again, Fly. I am banking huge coin just by doing the opposite of what you and your banged up time machine say.
Fly,
Just came to the blog after the close. I held my short for the weekend. What the hell was that?