If you think we will rally off a -533,000 employment number, you’re out of your God damned mind. In the event that we do rally, defying all laws of logic and reason, dating back to the ancient Greek days, “The Fly” will be sure to cordially sell into it, mind you, with the utmost amounts of energy and conviction—as if he were punching holes through office grade sheet rock (out of sequence, makes no sense, I know).
Here’s the cold hard facts:
America will be embedded in a deep recession, until late 2010.
There is NO FUCKING WAY the market will be up in 2009, in light of what just occurred.
The shocking decline in oil happened too fast. As a result, many states will “enjoy” budget short falls.
Although it would be nice to see the U.S. savings rate climb, in the process, it will be incredibly debilitating to the economy. Think for a moment: how many stores did The Gap open up, based upon a loose credit environment?
Look, I am not saying we will fall off a cliff, like Wild E. Cayote. Just don’t get overly optimistic about a quick turn in the markets.
With my money, I hedged my FAZ position with small buys in JPM, down a buck. And, I’ve been buying ample amounts of ERY/DUG, due to the fact that oil is fucked on a spindle. And, I sold out of all of my TNA, for a loss. And, I blew out of my GME, for a gain.
Basically, I think SKF/FAZ go much higher. However, in the event men with tight orange leotards try to “bottom pick,” owning God’s bank (JPM) is not a terrible idea.
NOTE: It appears my GVA short may finally start performing.
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SMN continues to trade well…and it has a somewhat normal chart compared to the other 2x inverses.
So what happens when 99% of all short term traders are in inverse ETFs?
99%?
Show me stats.
Bleed XOM bleed you fucking bastard.
100% of Bill Miller’s money and pension funds are fully invested.
Short term traders are the dew on my grass.
Fly
have you sold out in C?
Am I the only one looking to go long TNA here?
I would like to call your attention to the destruction in UPL today.
FXP is DOWN today…. I just love this messed up market.
Hong Kong stocks needs to drop. Ugh.
GS,MS,Insurers say XLF will be good for long scalps today. It would be nice though if C,JPM cooperate.
kill those damn home builders. They should all be at 0 already. How they move up on anything, I don’t understand. Don’t people realize that there will be no need whatsoever for new construction as the market tries to absorb millions of unused and abandoned foreclosed piles of shit?
These bastards are the ones that played a huge role in getting us into this mess. Short them to oblivion.
By the way, they are way up from 2 weeks ago, and are still defying death.
fly, what about WFC?
According to the Meridith W. report that Gio sent out, WFC has virtually none of the exposure to CC debt, like the other top 5 banks.
Is this a sign of the bottom??
Bank Julius Baer CEO dies unexpectedly
By Katie Reid
ZURICH (Reuters) – Alex Widmer, the chief executive of Bank Julius Baer (BAER.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and a well respected figure in Swiss private banking, has died unexpectedly at the age of 52, the bank said.
A source told Reuters he had been informed by close friends of Widmer’s family that the banker had committed suicide.
Swiss news website 20Minuten cited two unnamed independent sources as saying it was a case of suicide.
Swiss police declined to comment on the death.
Fly-
If I remember correctly Bill Miller did call the bottom a few days ago, and he has lost huge coin the past year. I may not be as smart as him and I may not have as much money or the great track record, but I really think he is wrong this time. Dead wrong. I am looking for new lows this month. So says my magic 8 ball
wtf-
whitney also said that she thinks WFC is the next bank to get hit
Grandma wants her PFE back.
WOW, FXP is a worthless whore. That has got to be the worst double short ETF in existence. No reason to play with it unless you get a nice 20% down move. I have scalped a nice gain from it several times simply trading it overnight like that.
fly or anybody
what is your guys view on Monday? During the weekend, I guess there are going to have some positive news (big 3 bailout)appear ?
all these jackasses that say they are optimistic over the next year are saying this because all of their accounts went to 0 or close to it. they have all had margin calls and they are fucked.
fly-
Don’t you think it would be a good idea to start a small position in erx or dig with the opec meeting coming up? opec won’t allow oil to be as low as it is….
ps. GO FAZ!
All the bad news is and HAS BEEN IN, Sherlocks!
We KNEW that unemployment would be bad and will continue to get worse,
We KNOW that earnings will be lousy, and the global economy SUCKS.
And we KNOW governments around the world are pumping money into the system hand over fist, and interest rates short, intermediate and long here are at RECORD LOWS.
Parlay all this and you should not be shorting here!
Grandma wants the Viagra?
FXP up because of CHL/LFC strength. If you want FXP up, go short those two.
PFE still outperforming ERY.
I am all out of C, except for a token 2,000 shares.
How about a little Tom Petty “Free Fallin?”
The bailout is a sell out!
The bailout is a sell out!
The bailout is a sellout !
Recapitalize the food banks!
No.
Back in 99, oil/gas co’s were bleeding out going bankrupt.
I predict we will see the same thing in 2009. Most of these companies levered up at the top.
Don’t buy DIG, until XOM has a 4 handle.
“DUG”
Donny wins BIG yet again!
I am embarrassed for my pop for buying PFE.
what’s next PG? JNJ? better off in cash.
If XOM has a 4 handle. You have DOW 6000.
What happens when XOM has a 4 handle?
Well, boys and girls, DUG will have at least a 6 handle … probably a 7 or 8.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. This month, FXP isn’t worth the time or the money… There are plenty of other magnificent, obscene, iETFs out there.
CHK is headed for BK very soon. This is an unsubstantiated rumor I heard being in the oil bidness.
The other rumor was that “the margin call” for CEO Aubrey McClendon forcing him to sell most of his position was really a fancy setup for him to blow out of his shares immediately sans pesky SEC regulations and advance notice/share limits etc.
Surely the SEC is doing it’s job and they have checked this out.
Again, these are just rumors, which are likely to be untrue.
I love that fly-
XOM at a 4 handle. I got short XOM on Wednesday. Let that fucker bleed
Fly Jr-
You’re figuring it out.
I call bullshit…the selloff seems pussified. We rally and end green on the day. This number was the big bath. The government has been understating these numbers until the “unexpected” spike this summer. From then on they have been playing catch up.
Buy ’em.
Gold has is having the absolute shit kicked out of it.
ANON, I know the company inside and out and have a lot of friends that work there and I can tell you everything you mentioned is completely not true at all. I don’t have a position in it but I can tell you they are completely wrong.
Kid:
God speed.
C making a stealth move up and will give XLF the push up.
what are the chances the Fed cuts rates today and fucks up my monster day?
Rate cut coming today!!!!!!!
I hope its true
“Short term traders are the dew on my grass.”
Classic Flyy.
Kid
Oil is telling us the number is true and dignified. The currencies are tilling us that too.
No shit the market *should* be down by over 300 by now, but keep in mind she is an illogical, whorish bitch who needs to be bitch-slapped hard and given some time to realize the truth – that she’s going down.
Well Pop, thanks for the Escalade, your monthly AMEX gas bills will be going down.
Rate cut won’t do much now – pushing on a very flaccid wiener…
In the meantime, does anyone see any impact from tax loss selling yet? Or is that still to come?
ANON is correct in his assertions about CHK. Aubrey ran that company as his personal hedge fund. He gambled that Nat Gas would always go up, when it went down, he was fubar. They are doing everything they can to raise cash asap since they are so deep in debt. CHK will be BK within 6 months.
Rate cut?
Does anyone care about that anymore?
That’s so 2007.
“If you think we will rally off a -533,000 employment number, you’re out of your God damned mind.”
————————-
Hmmmmm…
Well, it would seem unlikely…but, if we DID (“rally”)…I wouldn’t be at all surprised.
Expect the unexpected !!!
We shall see…
.
wtf
There is zero chance the Fed does something today. it would make them look desperate an the market would likely fall further.
They lower to 25 basis points on the appointed day.
There are three actions that may hold up the market from now on.
The Fed goes to zero and overtly starts monetization and the BOJ and the ECB do the same. Aggressively so. Otherwise a rate cut will do zilch.
If short term traders are the dew on Fly’s grass than I must be the crabgrass.
Hey Holmes, I am the paraquat on your grass. Enjoy your six toed babies!!
If you are trying to tell me that there will not be any Gov intervention some time today…..I say bullshit, just wait.
Dont forget that have been pulling this kind of bullshit in the afternoons. In the end it wont matter, however, for a short covering rally today…..it will.
Get ready for some good ol’ben and hank fuckery.
Fly. You need to mow your lawn before I call our Homeowner’s Association.
Huge reversal coming on auto bailout news 😉
FXP is has been suggesting for a while now that China will be out of the recession before the US. Contrarians should be buying FXP in the hopes of a hard landing in China. No way, they get off that easy with such dependence on the US consumer. India is more in the services industry and may do better than China. Is the a 2x ETF for India?
DD must be out bow-hunting.
Maybe playing a little “ultimate game” with Generational Bottom.
Fuck it…long TNA 22.75
ED
No doubt about it. We will be red all day until the last 45 min.
Wrie it down. If Im wrong, I will post a picture of my ass napkin that is currently in its place.
Deal?
Hey, you guys can do whatever you want. But, relying the the Gov’t to do something is a really weak argument to be long. And it’s pulling for straws.
Try to think bigger picture, further out than one fucking day.
If you are wrong, you get the CAP punishment.
Deal?
Tony, Vix only at 66, you are gonna get you’re face stuffed in a murder hole filled with AIDS infected rats and snakes…. sell
FAS -1.33%
FAZ+4.66%
Is it possible to make money being long both, every day?
WTF
Still long C here- Dow down over 2%, C is about even… clearly shows C is still under valued around 7.40
I think Im stuck like 90% of the others..
Net long..waiting for a bounce to sell / get short
Feel its too late to short now..feel its too late to sell out now
deer in the spot light thing
so, govt pls help me out here till xmas..and give me that small window of opportunity to rebalance my portfolio
Fuck that, I DONT want the CAP punishment. Please Fly, this site is my life.
Im all cash so I dont really care. But, I would like to get in on some shorts for a scalp, but am afraid of the Gov induced short squeeze.
Thats all
I take that as a no about the picture of hte ass napkin? It funny
COP trading at 3 times earnings.
Slash estimates in half at its at 6? Valuing oil at $5 and gas at $1.50. Cold winter coming. I’ll take the over on both
This will have a 70 handle in Q2
SMN prints 110 today imo
FXP is green!!
There is a God.
NOTE: God is short equities.
Pres. Bush speaks shortly. Things could fall apart real fast…
AssN
I told you what they fucking have to do. they don’t move this freaking quickly. the BOJ are in cloud whoopey land and the frog running the ECB is an asshat.
(hey fly can I nominate Jean Cloud Trichet as the asshat of the week and that fucker deserves it? He said in his after meet press conference that the ECB still needs to be vigilante with inflation. That stupid douchebag deserves an asshat for sheer incompetency. Plus he’s a frog.)
So far, this is pigfuckery.
Red again.
Damn it.
Meredith Whitney was right on Citibank on Monday. It has NOT seen its lows. The Gov’t is gonna have to give them more money. BAC is next.
Pigfuck thanx for the heads up!
buying JPM.
Banks firming up.
SKF will prevail
God may be short equities but Lucifer is long C.
In the meantime, does anyone see any impact from tax loss selling yet? Or is that still to come?
You need to have gains to have tax loss selling. Loss deductions without gains are capped at $3,000.
___________
PFE is down 3%.
Nothing worse than buying an orphan stock out of fear and getting clownstomped. I have to rethink who I’m taking to Parent’s Day.
Ok, I am tired of hearing the Big three’s dumb asses talking. So boring. Switching channels maybe to AMC with DevilDog
If timed right, when W speaks, the Brits will be blowing up the bridge over Kwai…Ironic, no?
that Whitney witch hammered WFC when it was at $22. Now printing $27.70 or 25% higher.
Her drum beat is tired.
CHK climpbing off the mat for Rocky VII
Huge short squeez in HIG.
Thanks, Jake. I’m not in the US so am unfamiliar with US tax laws.
You guys can’t write off 2008 losses against gains from prior years?
In countries where you can do that, the guvmints will be paying out shitloads of cash they booked in the last few years. Most of them probably haven’t even budgeted for this…
The world is fucked.
Did you guys miss me?
Whitney had her moment in the sun..she shud now shut the f$%k up ..or she risks being another Aby Cohen
C bidding up is more interesting than seeing a full frontal of pam anderson in her youth.
Bought some back.
fly,
C has a wrap on 300 bill of shitty assets on which they only carry 10% of the loss. Isn’t that a better deal than JPM that don’t have that sort of condom?
You guys can’t write off 2008 losses against gains from prior years?
Yes, you can, but you’d have to balance out
1) (retail) people already having sold by now and
2) people reluctant to sell (now) at such a deep discount.
_______
Anyone checking out the five minute charts?
Ever see such uniform volume on a down day like this?
___________
FLY
What did you do to CAP?
Hey Napkin,
The Fed and Treasury save their big announcements for options expiration, so I wouldn’t expect anything extreme from them today. Market craps a TarKneale today.
Gappy&Yappy-
Figured as much. CHK is huge here in E.Texas/N.W. La., they and Petrohawk. Crude losing 70% in 4 months is already slowing things down here, but the Haynesville Shale Play is a big find, and even if CHK goes under, someone will step up and fill the void.
4th trade in and out on XLF. REALLY done for sure until the usual 2:45 PM fireworks
J —
Don’t you get it? He’s not defending againt inflation. Trichet’s defending the very concept of the euro ovah heah.
He will fail, imho.
___
What’s up with GS? Not participating in the financials. Respite?
God may be short equities but Lucifer is long C.
That would explain the multiple visits to “the Crossroads.”
__________
President Eisenhower and VP Richard Nixon will improve the job picture. We hear that chimps will be going into space and that Uncle Milton Bearle will be on the TV soon.
C bidding up is more interesting than seeing a full frontal of pam anderson in her youth.
^^^^^
A “tell” for the 47.5 year-old+ Age Police, no doubt.
________
A rate cut? Who said that? Bang Bang Bernanke’s silver hammer coming down on the long end and you think a symbolic cut to the nominal target is gonna fool anyone? Words fail.
Yea
he possibly is Jake. I just think it not the thing to say to spooked markets that you’re concerned with inflation at the moment.
COP is in a bear market. There is nothing bullish about lower prices.
Pam Anderson has more sand in her chest than what exists on Miami Beach.
TC –
Could be “ocean?”
_____
The action in the financials and SKF in the last few days has been different than I’ve seen in sometime . . . interesting. I agree this is bad, but I’m beginning to wonder about the financials. Thoughts?
im getting some FAS here to go with my SMN…just in case
everything is in a bear market. Give me the ones that have the best balance sheets – they’ll recover first.
as my dad would say, anyone who thinks lower oil is permanent is an asshat.
high jobless numbers is good news .. firms are getting rid of costs .. the consumer is fucked up anyhow …
TLT at high again..yawn
out of TNA for a buck and a quater
SKF hasnt done shit the past few day
XLF finished down only a percent yesterday
JPM and MS were up even with the late day selloff
Something is up. Ive noticed it too
Trader C
and that’s a bad thing because…….
Banks must be making a killing, borrowing money from the Fed at ridiculously low interest rates and then turning around and underwriting corporate paper, FDIC insured, at high yields. More banks will fail, as the leverage is still hardly “unwound”, but all in all the ones that don’t (most of them) are locking in their leases on Big Ben’s printing press.
The bridge is going to blow…W in 10 minutes…GET OFF THE BRIDGE!
Jake- It works like putting a large seashell to your ear. If you put your ear on her chest you can hear the ocean.
wtf?- I thought today was the day TLT would finally go pop (on the news) and it would be safe to nibble on TBT. Wrong again.
Caddy, i know, im waiting too for TBT
Fly-
Do you think it’s a good idea to go into next week short?
The bridge is going to blow…W in 10 minutes…
Now that I agree with. The man is a walking Shleprock.
There goes the bridge…the market is about to follow…
I know that Fly doesn’t approve of harsh language, but in light of current events I am moved to say FUCK THE FUCKING FUCKBALLS WHO FUCKING FUCKED UP THE FUCKING TWIN FUCKBAGS FAZ & FXP.
May everyone at proshares and direxion grow up to be a bald & stuttering paulson.
Fuck them all into a cocked hat, whatever the fuck that means.
One love.
Oil down another 6%, unreal.
All in Mike
see everyonle later…im going to a long lunch.
But first im goint to fill up my V8 SUV for under $35 bucks. hahahahahaahah IRAN and Venezuala!
And as my pa says “anyone who buys a stock with a chart that looks like an asshat, is an asshat.”
never seen you this angry, ants. You’re very animated the morning.
Angry?
What part of “one love” do you not understand?
I am as mellow & peaceful as a white Bob Marley,
sans the cloud of Cayne smoke.
bush speaking, another -50 to -100 pts.
Now watching “Magnum Force” on BRAVO.
Here is Bush. The longs are now screwed. Let’s go for a crash. Bring on Uncle Ben and Uncle Hank P.
Look at the Prez.’s facial expressions….Inspires bucketloads of confidence, no? Just go away…
What the fuck was that all about?????? I guess I could say the same about the past 8 years…Just WTF was that all about??
What a bunch of shit. He did not saying anything new.
Happiness…is a warm gun !
.
Shut the fuck up BUSH
You are a fucking cunt, sir.
Good day
!
Our greatest president ever!
Hope he gets a good job running direxion or proshares!
They would be perfect for each other!
Too many commercials on BRAVO. Back to Good Times on TVLand. DYNOMITE!!
Back to Bravo. Thanks for the heads up DD.
Crude = $41.24
8)
charts=asshats
Yeah, thanks DOG for the heads up. Let me know when you start to get bearish though.
Is that Woodshedder driving the taxi on BRAVO?
Was that the BIG PLUNGE devilfrog? It was HUGE.
That should really start a REVOLUTION.
I was all ready to come over to the bear side, strap on my Rambo headband and join DevilDog as brother-in-arms, salivating at the thought of plundering 401Ks and lynching bankers for sport. Then, I’m disillusioned to read in the other thread that Dog has a French Poodle. Sure, I’ve known guys that can say “Yeah, I got a Bichon Frise and an assault rifle – you got a problem with that?” But I find myself questioning everything now – is up down and black white?
How does one keep a French Poodle from “yip yip yip” giving away one’s position in a post-apocalypse world? No, the grim reality is frenchy will have to have it’s little throat strangled until it’s little back legs stop scratching your forearms in the dead of night when the children are hopefully asleep, then skinned, gutted, deboned and secretly added to the morning stew to extend one’s food supply. How will that affect one mentally?
Yes, I will prepare for the end of the world and hang any banker I encounter. I will absorb Dog’s wisdom, but he shall not be my mentor, for he has not thought this through. The sad reality of the apocalypse is it’s every man for himself.
SKF is in the process of breaking DOWN
Short at will.
No, the poodle is safe until Michael Vick gets out of jail.
it may be time to post that RALLY MONKEY again
Bush makes an appearance and people confuse him with the rally monkey.
We are at the end of days.
For whatever reason, this market appears to want to go up. I’m not gonna fight it. I just sold my position in DUG (for yet another big winner), and bought UYG for 5.30.
Bravo is as ambiguously gay as it gets.
Volume is drying up.
Bears are running out of bullets.
Sailing is also very ambiguously gay.
I like French poodles, especially the Giant ones, the Toy ones tend to split on me.
Breadth and tape still negative but these banks wont go down. Few other things turning green. Very mixed and difficult here. I will short new lows and I will buy new highs, but right now lunch seems the wisest option.
(Re Oil : I would rather own DTO than COP etc etc)
Standard (large) poodles seem like pretty good dogs.
New stimulus! Prozac in the water on Wall St. 533k jobs? No prob. Let’s rally.
Private and Thunder —
We just lost our (13 year old) standard this past August.
There are no better dogs. Period. For everything, even the apocalypse.
___________
Jake:
Sorry to hear. Lost a 13-year Bull Terrier last year. Above post was attempt at humor going into the apocalypse, and certainly not a shot at poodles, French or otherwise.
Fly,
How do you comment on following bespoke research?
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/12/41st-worst-monthly-jobs-report-on-recordyes-41st.html
41st Worst Monthly Jobs Report On Record…Yes 41st
This morning’s employment report showed that during the month of November the US economy lost 533K jobs which was the sixth largest monthly decline on record. However, just as a move of 100 points in the Dow was a much bigger move when the Dow was at 1,000 than it is now that we are at 8,000, adecline of 500K jobs when the workforce consists of 140 million workers is not nearly as significant as a decline of 500K jobs when the workforce consists of 40 million workers as it did in 1945. Today’s jobs report was certainly nothing to get excited about, but it also wasn’t the Armageddon scenario that some are making it out to be. Below we list the 41 worst employment reports since 1939.
Jake,
And I thought we had nothing in common.
We’ve gone through 2 Standard Poodles…each lived a great life…Beau 13 years…Ram 12 !
“There are no better dogs. Period.”
Couldn’t agree more…they’re the best !
I’m sorry for your loss !
.
Donny nice job on your last pile oo DUG.
I tried the 23.63 spot on DIG yesterday, went up some but fell apart.(Should have bailed before the day ended)
This morning, even though it didn’t look good, it held above that mark,then collapsed. I took a 30 cent hit. I am regrouping in the 22.10 area after a test of 21.71. I’m trading for a few hours not days on this one. Entering small position, 1 to 3 hundred at a time.
Thunder – no offense taken, he had a great life (he was a rescue).
Alf — we actually had a mini when we were first married, but she died young (running across the street), and it was a long time before we got Sam (standard).
Not sure how long we’ll wait on a new one… probably a little more time.
________
Jake,
WOW ! Too funny…we actually have a miniature now !
After we lost Ram (Dec. 2006)…we decided maybe we would go it without a dog…at least for awhile. We were both heartbroken. I’m sure you know the feeling.
Well, about 6 months later (May 2007)…we happened to stop by a PETCO one Saturday. There was an Animal Rescue group that was set up there (as they do EVERY Sat.) with…what else…Dogs/Cats/etc… ALL needing homes.
To make a long story short…we came home with a Miniature Poodle.
And so…we have now entered the “Gracie era” ! 🙂
What can I say…we still think about Beau and Ram…and will always…but…”lil Gracie” has turned into a pretty kewl dog.
And let there be no doubt…little though she may be…she’s ALL Poodle ! LOL
Again, sorry about “Sam” !
Take care !
.