I was doing just fine, until Wooshedder jinxed me with this statement:
“Beware the late day rally.”
Thank you very much Mr. Woodshedder.
Well, my day was hectic as cow shit in a pigsty. At this point, it’s rather pointless to discuss what I did, since it’s all hindsight. However, I will say, I ended the day with losses and was forced to rehedge my shorts, into the close, for the love of little babies and currency.
It’s a little frustrating to be off on timing; but it happens every once in awhile. The important thing is to stay focused and not try to hit a homerun, into losing positions. Instead, sometimes it’s better to eat losses, cut a clean slate and start anew, if only for peace of mind.
It’s clear the market is dying to go up. Bad news is not hitting stocks and good news is nowhere to be found. God forbid we get good news, this market will go parabolic, if only for a short term rally.
I can tell you, with the utmost certainty, the market is not healthy. I cannot say if we bottomed, but I will guaranfuckingtee you, the market will not go straight up.
Bank stocks are cheap, based upon where they were a few months ago. However, I think it’s fair to say their business models are severely impaired. Therefore, it makes little sense to go long banks, for any long term duration of time.
At the end of the day, I find myself with a hodge podge of stocks/etf’s, that will likely result in zero gains tomorrow, regardless of what the market does.
I own FAZ, FXP, EEV, REW, TNA. BGU, FAS and DUG.
Within stocks, I still own some GME, UNH, M, PFE, GU and a bunch of other stocks, not worth mentioning.
Bottom line: stocks are for asshats and I should practice my sandwich eating skills, during the afternoons, instead of trying to time tops.
Get ready for the obligatory — absolutely required — 10% pop in USO soon.
That will make up for it.
QQQQ’s baby!!
Today played out well for me, with both F and TNA posting strong gains. In fact, I think I’ll take DEVILDOG’s mother out for a nice robster dinner and never call her again!
DevilDog said we would close in the red – bad DevilDog!
Tomorrow is another day. Profound platitude, I know.
I like how you spelled Shed’s name “Whoosh-edder” It’s a better name that way
you sound tired. get some rest.
That PFE play is really sexy
The fly always wins – even when he appears to be losing …
When that chartist came on fast money exasperated that we haven’t had a sustained bear market rally in months I wondered if that was a sign that we would indeed have our Santa Claus rally.
Hope springs eternal again.
Bank stocks are cheap, based upon where they were a few months ago.
Yep by long ways
However, I think it’s fair to say their business models are severely impaired.
Dude, who gives a shit about their business models. It’s a fucked up business. The business of banking is mentally impaired. Imagine, well not quite, imagine you actually hand out money to blobs that have in a lot of cases very little chance of repaying back the money and you’re doing that at a 13:1 ratio. The entire fucking banking casino is mentally impaired doing that shit.
Therefore, it makes little sense to go long banks, for any long term duration of time.
No. Banks are now supercharged demons that can borrow in the term markets at close sovereign risk. They are the best possible bet out there. They could go up in multiples as they can borrow at close to sovereign and lend out at huge spreads or buy debt by matching duration, not having to mark to market, and make almost gay like spreads without lifting as much as a finger.
Stop worrying about the indexes and just buy banks. Indexes is for mugs like the Dog and lots of gay people.
Bears will be right eventually, but they need to step up to the plate soon (like tomorrow) in a big way or they’re gonna get gored and stomped in ways they forgot they could be. Bulls are itching to bust open the door for a sustained rally.
I don’t care what the charts say, the market isn’t ready to go up substantially, there hasn’t been enough pain and misery for investors.
In fact, aside from the late day rallys (thanks to the real PPT), the market wants to go down.
GA
I can’t see how the market can go down if the banks are going up in a huge way.
TMA went down 50% today
Business models of banks are broken? Who the fuck keeps telling these lies? …. just watch how much coin these banks mint as the Treasury pounds mortgage rates down to a low 4 handle. Every fucking mortgage in the world, plus 1 more, will be beating down the doors to be refinanced. The value of that toxic mortgage shit on the banks books will jump like Michael J. And those commercial banking fuckers will put away major fee money in the refinancing wave.
GA —
Don’t trade what you hope/think, trade what you see.
Many “investors” as in retail, are long gone, btw.
Just fucktards left.
_______
Carl Ichan is about ready to punch Bartaroma
Shit, I may go out and get a freaking mortgage at 4.5% long rates!
________
Fly Sr, should I sell my PFE and buy some 3 month treasuries?
Charley, Why don’t you take Devildog’s mother out for a nice tube steak?
Pay off the mortgage, short TLT, earn the spread.
Day and Night – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkSq2Zn2XoY
Despite today’s up market, the toilet will get flushed on Friday with a 500K+ job loss. Get short or be a turd and go down the sewer.
November Payrolls Looking Grim (via Marketwatch):
Three reports released on Wednesday hint that the labor market was much weaker in November than we expected, and we were already expecting the biggest job losses since 1980.
The median forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch looks for a decline of 350,000 jobs in November, but many economists say the risks are rising that the report will be worse, perhaps much worse. It could be the worst since 1974.
“Be afraid, be very afraid,” wrote Robert Brusca of FAO Economics after these three horrible reports were released.
The bad news had some economists scrambling to adjust their forecasts for Friday’s nonfarm payroll numbers. Economists usually take a fresh look at their forecasts after the ADP and ISM numbers are released. A few revised their forecasts lower, and many others warned of “downside risks.”
Brian Fabbri of BNP Paribas lowered his forecast to a loss of 450,000 jobs. “The economy has not experienced such large job losses in a given month since the recession in 1974-1975,” he wrote.
“Our forecasting model predicts a stunning 490,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls,” wrote Harm Bandholz, economist for UniCredit Markets.
Since 1950, payrolls have fallen by 500,000 or more just three times.
“This is consistent with payrolls falling by about 500,000,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. “Let’s hope it is very wrong.”
i pray that devildog is right as i am staring down the barrell of a shotgun. sctoch anyone?
Deflation has already set in and it’s now realistic to start talking about another “D” word, this one being depression. Before we can use a word, we must define it. For the sake of argument, let’s define depression as unemployment of 10% or greater.
Looking at alternative measures of unemployment (counting discouraged workers, those working part time for economic reasons, etc), we are already there at depression levels of unemployment.
We already know this but we still going green right
Feels like another bubble brewing
Norc —
Whew, it’s a good thing no one’s been talking about that damn unemployment report this week, huh?
Should be a big surprise!
_______
Malaka — so what are you saying? France, Spain, Italy and Germany have been in a Depression for the last twenty years?
_________
Fleckenstein is becoming bullish.
Dow 10,500 by Dec 20th
Fleckenstein is becoming bullish = DOW 6000
Thanks for the post Norcal !! Excellent !!
Fly Jr.,
3 month T-bills yield .01 percent, PFE yields 8 percent.
Your call.
Disclaimer: Long PFE
Surely the bond market will be surprised if we lose ANY jobs – uh-huh, yep.
Thunder — eggsactly.
The bond market will begin asking the rubes for money to hold their t-bills on Friday.
Since 1950, payrolls have fallen by 500,000 or more just three times
Yea, what exactly was the size of the working population then and now?
^^^^ Check it out!
There actually was someone who didn’t know the unemployment report would suck on Friday!
My apologies, Norcal, you’ve provided a service.
_________
i think too many people already expect a dismal employment number. everyone expects it to be worse than the estimates.
therefore, i fully expect the number to be manipulated so as not to be worse than expectations, only to be revised next month.
smoke and mirrors rally is my prediction, but all i’ll do is maybe nibble on a few shares of BGU on a dip tomorrow. no big bets.
Fly,
I dumped my 1000 FXP@46, having bought at 77, used proceeds to buy 400 SRS@114. Figured the latter could pop higher faster, though I believe China is still f-ed. It was the biggest realized loss ever for me, but I’ll take it as tuition.
That’s 1 year at a decent private school, probably the low end though.
In other news, Karen Tso is looking salaciously alluring tonight.
Is that Tso?
sorry…
Jake:
Re: bond market. Bonds have diverged from stocks a bit here, since promises of helicopter drops Bernanke made Monday. That divergence is getting mighty stale. UUP is the tell, methinks, as you point out.
Like I said new LOWS this month. I don’t care which day it is. BTW, NO bailout for the little 3. No xmas rally for the sheeples. SPY 6 handle this month. VIX to 118. Holding all SHORTS from 9/19.
Fly,
Since a friend introduced me to this site and your blog, I’ve been reading every post. Awesome stuff. This particular post was actually very insightful. In particular I agree with “I can tell you, with the utmost certainty, the market is not healthy.”
Couldn’t agree more.
On days where I feel like I’m the only one going short, I know at least DEVILDOG is on my side.
25% unemployment was the norm during The Great Depression … 10% is for stagflation …
ADP unemployment #’s already discounted … Big3 not yet discounted …
Long PFE also …. (for the yield)
Devil… I’m overall bearish on this Sisyphean Rally. But Vix to 118?! Even if I were short the market, I would not want it to get to Vix > 100. That’s like winning a shopping spree at the Salvation Army.
j, all your bank bullshit makes sense except for the one big thing you leave out that nullifies your stupid thesis. NO ONE IN AMERICA IS GOING TO BORROW. The debt economy and supply side elitist bullshit are finished. The Revolution is about 1% started. S&P 150 MIGHT be the bottom. Write it DOWN.
Got ass raped again today at the end going short.
SRS at 113
FUCK THIS SHIT
God, my SPY puts at Vix 118 would be – insanely great (with apologies to skinny Steve).
Thunderpup
(long stocks in case Dog is wrong, long SPY puts in case he’s right, and harvesting volatility in the meantime to pay the rent on the puts)
Gio, VIX 118 will happen on the BIG PLUNGE this month along with a 1000 point DOWN day on the DOW. Stay SHORT or be killed instantly.
if given the chance to borrow, they will borrow. that’s the american consumer, if they can, they will. has been the case for the last 40 yrs. then they will spend it and spend it. God bless America.
I’m really beginning to think quite seriously that our friend Mr. Dog might actually be unhinged, and not just playing “an unhinged” on TV, ovah heah.
___________
lol. i think he is sane, and really believes that those things will occur. not a fun way to live life, specially when is so fucking short.
Perhaps Viper/bouncing booby time has been diminished, leading to psychopathic tendencies being unleashed?
Then again, DD, as I’ve always surmised, is someone yanking our chain.
Yeah, I agree JG, but they accused Peter Schiff of the same thing last year.
Sorry Fly!
On the Covestor front, I see our own Chart Addict has signed up.
C’mon, how many others out there have the balls!
Let’s see what you’ve got!
PFE? WTF? I’d rather rub my cock with a cheese grater.
Woody,
got nothing to be sorry about. i am in the process of setting up an account solely for the purpose of covestor. it has been a pain in the ass. remember, you have to look out for me. lol.
You’d be crazy to sign up for Covestor and compete with Woodshedder!!
This guy is a monster, top 10 trader.
-gio-
DEVILDOG should be institutionalized. Clearly he has lost his marbles. So sad…goes around all day crying the sky is falling. My guess is he looks like Martini in the movie One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest.
Um, Wood, it sounded like you wanted to see someone’s balls.
just sayin’,
gio
there hasn’t been enough pain and misery for investors
LOL
Worst statement ever.
In almost 20 years of trading, this is worse than all the previous pain and misery I’ve seen—-combined.
Yes, he is unhinged… and quite possibly he is in revenge trading mode since he missed the lows (by a wider margin each day) and keeps seeing profits slip away.
Chivas going up against the likes of Tim Sykes. Tim should be making big coin if Covester works as advertised.
Dog
Your point about people not borrowing actually is a good one but for one thing. people don’t have to borrow for banks to make money, Dagwood.
People don’t have to borrow for banksters to start making spread money as the banks can go around rifle through the debt markets, buy those assets at 30’s depression prices and aren’t required to mark to market matching duration risk.
The other thing is that a lot of banks bar the big ones have let all their staff go in this area which means there’s little expertise bar the big guys.
Shed
good call on the closing rally, dude. You ought to get a well deserved blow job from your better 1/2 for that call as soon as you walk through the door.
Tomorrow will be a fairly big reversal day to the downside followed by losses every day through at least the 8th – 10th. Unemployment claims will be HUGE tomorrow and payrolls on Friday will be much worse than forecast. On the 8th while the market is open or possibly after the close the vote on the little 3 will be disclosed and it will not be passed. No rally until Jan. with the new top paid off politician taking office and giving the little 3 taxpayer money along with a huge fiscal stimulus package in addition to a bailout for anyone that wants one at taxpayer expense. Just heard tonight we purchased $50B of AIG’s toxic waste to take it off their books. SWEET! Another log on the REVOLUTION fire which is smoking and getting ready for ignition. DEVILDOG like it HOT!
China getting all Smoot-Hawley on the rest of Asia.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/3546471/Chinese-economy-1930s-beggar-thy-neighbour-fears-as-China-devalues.html
Dog
AIG’s toxic waste is real enough. However they were the one side of the market selling that shit short. Don’t get carried away and think all CDS books are like that as they’re not, certainly not at the banks. That was a rogue operation selling short options like crazy.
so if we go over 900 SPX on big volume will you stay short Dog or will you average in some more shorts? Do you have a plan in place in case the market stays irrational longer than you think?
lots of stuff is setting up to move higher from a scan of the charts… you have to be aware that the market is shrugging off bad news…if it shrugs off the employment data then you might want to consider your exit plan
example of shrugging off bad news…FCX suspends the divvy and the stock won’t close at a new low…traded 51 million shares…somebody wants those shares sans divvy…
Who lost more $$$$ today? DEVIL DOG or our new Chart Addict?
DD, were you more than 175% short?
Gio, lol..I didn’t mean for it to come out that way.
As for Covestor, while it would be fun to go head to head with you guys, my main motivation is for transparency, not chest-beating bragging stuff.
Out of over 10,000 registered users of Covestor, maybe 2% are showing gains for the year.
If we were to extrapolate that to the iBC board, then like 1 person in the above comments section would be profitable for the year.
Now certainly, that’s not scientific.
But just think…whose comments would you ignore if you knew they were never profitable? Whose would you pay more attention to?
Wood – You’ve got to be shitting me… 2% showing gains for the year? That’s nuts.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28039665
Ratigan: Should we consider it a bullish indication that you got out of the business of running a short fund?
Fleckenstein: I’ve covered my shorts and to me it’s too dangerous to be short because of all of the liquidity that’s being trotted out by the Fed and the Treasury. On any given day you can lose too much money.
DevilsDog: VIX 118 will happen on the BIG PLUNGE this month along with a 1000 point DOWN day on the DOW. Stay SHORT or be killed instantly. Like I said new LOWS this month. I don’t care which day it is. BTW, NO bailout for the little 3. No xmas rally for the sheeples. SPY 6 handle this month. VIX to 118. Holding all SHORTS from 9/19.
Jakegint – I don’t believe the market has a 500,000 job losses priced in.
Yogi, go to Covestor, and check the “rankings” tab.
When you do that, scroll through the ranks. One sort of has to extrapolate, and it does change day by day.
Even it is was 4%, that’s not a lot.
Just found out I was knocked out of the top 10. Now in 11th, for the risk-adjusted ranking.
FCX is getting ape-raped! Who farted?
SRS – $260 to $115 in EIGHT trading days. Now that’s ultra spectacular.
I’m glad I changed careers… Sit on some longs… buysome china … wait a few years… buildup lotsa TBT… work for a living… do nothing in the market .. just wait. Will yield a higher annual return than 80% of traders, given this BS malevolant environment.
btw, I don’t see the case for owning DUG after oil’s shaved $100 off its $147 high.
Long DIG & DXO, in size.
“FCX – who farted?”
… their board. all of ’em, at the same time, in the general direction of shareholders. A real Monty Python set of humoristas, there.
Question for the board.If Europe cute rates, what effect will that have on our banks (FAZ) and oil prices?Thanks.
j-
Any comment on this article?
_____
Crude– depends on if it’s in conjunction with a GLORC or not.
________
Wood, it is amazing to see everyone down on Covestor… I secretly scan through Covestor with some traders i find on Twitter to get an idea of what kind of trader they are. Transparency can hurt your trading groove somtimes. but i think u can handle it.
Detroit Bailout, Oops I mean bridge loan – a few suggestions:
Sell yer planes
Hitch or take the bus like really needy folk do.
Give back 70% of yer ill gotten gains (read salary & bonus)
Get a real job, or do something to contribute to society rather than living off taxpayers.
Note: I have not bought an American car since having the engine on my ’79 Cadillac diesel blow @ 28,000 Miles and then fighting for 6 weeks to have it repaired @ N/C.
Other makers will take over the factories.
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