You may think “The Fly” is insane, with his intra-day madness, switching positions from bull to bear back to bull. However, if you don’t know by now, the market is offering investors/traders annual moves in a day, or sometimes hours. In other words, the type of shit you see me doing now, I might have done in 6 months of trading, all in one fucking day.
Everything is fast, as men with large pockets full of cocaine trade stocks, as if the world had a fucking time bomb attached to it.
Just to recap:
At first, I thought the market was going to melt up, in a very SHAM-WOW sort of way. Then, all of a sudden, the market started to nose dive, which in turn scared the shit out of me—unwilling to ride the market down anymore. So, quickly, I took profits on BAC, GE and a variety of other names.
Here’s where I fucked up:
Getting greedy, I rushed into FAZ and FXP, into strength. Big mistake.
Soon enough, the market remelted higher, likely as a result of a big market seller getting cleaned out. Worried about my exposure to 300% instruments of the devil, quickly, I hedged it with TNA , KBR and some GME.
At the end of the day, I nearby killed myself, all for nothing. I made a bunch in my longs, got murdered on some inverses and ended up a few percent, net-net.
Basically, I am willing to be short a few banks and loads of Chinese names, while long other stuff. If you are short oil stocks, you have to be worried, since oil stocks are bucking the trend higher.
In short, I should have taken my own advice and went for a sandwich instead.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I see.
do you still hold GU fly? i picked up a little yesterday…
Still long GU.
Should have listened to me. You are losing your touch. No big deal though, you will come through fine.
Tomorrow we have follow through and all the naysayers will realize this rally has legs.
Can someone explain to me how Lenny Dykstra claims to be 87-0 on his options picks this year? Apologies for going to that shitbox site, but someone emailed me the story and asked my thoughts. I have no explanation.
From the fucking article:
Lenny Dykstra manages Nails on the Numbers, a subscription service sold by TheStreet.com. Mr. Dykstra is 87-0 in his options pick this year. Mr. Dykstra writes regularly about options trades for TheStreet.com.
The Fly is God.
ERX is printing money.
OIL was down and this was up – huge tell.
would any of you fuck Nancy Pelousy?
STFU with the ERX already. May you be buried with it.
Dude, seriously…why turn this into a yahoo board? Why?
NO!
Rather do a Romanian goat…
Fly is a sore loser today.
Very unprofessional
Take that moniker off, else i will punch it off.
This is a YHOO message board, worst comments section in all the internets.
Everyone knows that.
It was AN INSANE DAY, I had to glue my butt to the chair all day and could not leave it for anything. I traded back and forth BGZ and BTU and at the end I bought BGZ …then it crashed and 10 minutes before closing came back up and I made a 1.00 profit and sold only to see it crash back down at closing.
Way to close for comfort, you cant know what is going on…who the Frak is trading BGZ and BGU….guess people like me. Up then 20 minutes later down, then up , then down , then up, etc…
Who can trade this stuff? Its insane.
This is a YHOO message board, worst comments section in all the internets.
Everyone knows that
I am trying to bring a level of professionalism that Sr. is failing at miserably today.
Ditch the TZA and hitch the ERX.
You moron. I don’t own TZA.
The Yahoo! posts reflect a need for attention worthy of:
http://www.tshirtwatch.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/desperate.jpg
This is Wave C…hope everyone reloaded SRS…tomorrow we rocket with SRS…
Fly. Come on over and help me wash my car. I just bought some cool rags from Germany. SHAM-WOW!!
unfortunately, Fly Sr. will be washing cars if he keeps making the knee jerk mistakes like today.
Maybe PPT is really the Fly’s stock picking analyt?
https://www.swiftcommunity.net/userfiles/monk_jpg.jpg
Interesting action in GE at the close…6+ millions shares bought at the high. Big DOW component, perhaps we get a Santa Rally afterall? Or big lump of coal up our ass.
The only oil short worth having is the greasy valdez f@cker, the rest already had a massive blowup. XOM going down like a cheap ho’ IMO.
another false close just like yesterday.
XOM has way too much institutional support to be taken down and way too much cash on its balance sheet. Sub $70, its a screaming buy, otherwise that 4’6 queen of doom Imada’s call of 4000 Dow is correct.
You make the call.
I have banned over 100 sinners on iBankCoin. Just know, once banned, you are not only banned from commenting, but also the entire site.
The only way to get back in my graces is to apologize. Many of you out there know exactly what I speak of.
That’s right, i have killed many of you, secretly, without it being known. Do not tempt me to kill you too.
Un-ban The Ducati for the holidays!
No. He is a registered sex offender.
What’s real food for real guys?
China is taking over the US.
If I hear one more comment regarding SHAM-WOW, I’m going to track down said perpetrator and sham-shove my size 12’s into his sham-holio.
That is all.
What’s real food for real guys?
Seculent pork tenderloin with a side of stuffed muchrooms.
Fly…perhaps you should give my newsletter a try !
.
What’s real food for real guys?
Sham-wiches!
Thank you, thank you verrah much… and thanks especially to my straight man, El Scorcho.
Remember to tip your waiters, and good night.
___________
El Scorcho,
Sham-WOW! is a miracle wonder product and Vince may well be a prophet sent to us from either God or from some advanced planet where everyone looks like Steve Buscemi and Christopher Walken.
So to you, Sir, I say not only Sham-wow, but, indeed,
Sham-WOW!
And my feet are size 13 1/2, so “bring it on.”
a 2.5″ ribeye smothered in shrooms with a side of baked potato covered with sour cream and plenty of hot rolls … fuck the veggies … maybe a good house salad for roughage.
Otherwise see that diet company with all the athletes … but real food???
Huge Intraday Swings Continue
I returned from China late during yesterday’s session, so I witnessed the tail-end of the carnage. (More about China below.) I have no idea what yesterday’s rout in nearly everything was about. Obviously, last week saw a decent rally. Thus, to have witnessed a subsequent decline wouldn’t have been at all shocking, but the size of yesterday’s shellacking was extraordinary . (In fact, only one stock in the entire S&P 500 was higher on the day, that being Rohm and Haas.) Having said that, ex its brutality the decline looked like a bit of a head fake.
I did find it interesting that NBER has made it official — the U.S. is in recession (a view I’ve held for quite some time), which they date back to December 2007. The next thing we should expect to see: folks looking for an end to the recession on a regular basis, simply because we are now officially in one. That prognostication, from the same people who called a bottom nearly every day in housing stocks, then housing, and then the stock market.
A Postulate Come to Pass
But rather than some garden variety recession, this is going to be the worst one in 50 years, and in fact is the “next time down” scenario that I described in May of 2004 — with the economy, stocks, and real estate all declining. Notwithstanding the massive monetary/fiscal stimulus that the government will be throwing at the problem, 2009 is going to be very ugly.
Turning to today’s action, the market managed a gain of about 2% in the first hour and by midday was higher by 3%. The early afternoon saw a selloff that took us back to unchanged, but a late-day rally took us back to the highs, which is where we closed. Bottom line (and to repeat my recent observation): It’s way too dangerous to be short these days, but I don’t want to own stocks either.
Away from stocks, the dollar wasn’t all that strong yesterday (and was mixed today), given what we’ve seen on past days when stocks have been under liquidation pressure. The big news yesterday in the FX market was the yen screaming higher. (I still hold my view that the dollar index has peaked.)
Meanwhile, yesterday’s Treasury explosion higher was inexplicable. Though I think they’re a lock-loser over time, it’s impossible to fight the price action in the short term. I expect carnage in spread products (not least of which being mortgage-related), carry-trading and momentum-oriented buying may be part of what is at work in that market. The bond market bubble will continue until it exhausts itself. Who knows when that will be, whether in several days or several months? (It wasn’t today, as the 30-year Treasury bond closed at an all-time low yield of 3.18%.)
Turning to precious metals, they too were smashed yesterday, despite the continued massive easing from central banks everywhere. (China cut rates last week, Australia joined in overnight, and the ECB will likely be cutting on Thursday.) As for today, the metals bounced, with gold closing 0.5% higher and silver 2% higher.
Notes from an Oriental Odyssey
Now I’d like to discuss China. I was very impressed by everything that I saw there. Admittedly, my sample set was small. I only visited three cities: Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou; and those are not representative of the entire country. Nevertheless, I was fortunate enough to meet with some people who really know a lot about how the country functions.
I think the most important thing for folks to understand is that China has not suffered the epic credit binge that much of the rest of the world has. The savings rate is high in China. Mortgage products require sensible downpayments. Credit is something that hasn’t quite come to China yet (although I understand that credit cards have recently become more available, especially in the big cities). People pay cash for most things, though they do use debit cards. From a credit standpoint, it seems similar to how life in America used to be when “Leave It to Beaver” ruled the airways. Meanwhile, the people who I met were very industrious and their enthusiasm seemed quite high. (As a traveler, I was happy to discover that the airports were new and the bags arrived quickly.)
The biggest problem that China faces is its dependence on exports. A large subset of the export issue is the fact that China has roughly 150 million itinerant/migrant workers — yes, you read that number right — in the south who’ve moved there from the west. (Away from the big cities, life is very difficult and people are very poor.)
But China understands its problem and is working overtime to stimulate the domestic economy. And, there is a lot that they can do. More importantly, they have the reserves with which to do so, having accumulated a couple trillion dollars as a country.
Thus, China is not without its problems. (I have left out many others and don’t mean to gloss over them.) But relative to the problems faced by most countries, China’s seem at least manageable and do not stem from having borrowed and spent their heads off.
Opportunity in Its Infancy
The other thing to note is that the “capitalistic” progress they’ve made is really only 15 or 20 years old. So, it is very early in the “China miracle,” if you will. And, as I mentioned earlier, even though the cities are modern and their infrastructure is very new, much of what I saw from a socioeconomic standpoint leads me to conclude that China is more like America was in the 50s and 60s. Thus, I reached the completely obvious conclusion, as have so many folks, which is that China is the wave of the future.
I intend to do plenty of research in the coming months because there’s an awful lot to learn if one wants to be an investor there, not least of which is to decide what exchange (and shares) to use: Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and/or Shenzen. One also needs to be aware that there is a serious old-boy network in China, related to its bureaucratic communist party structure — though it seems to me that they are communist in name only, and capitalists at heart.
For anyone who’d like to learn more, I recommend a book called Mr. China by Tim Clissold. (After being introduced by a friend, I was lucky enough to spend a couple hours talking with him.) The book will give folks an understanding of how difficult it has been in the past to do business in China. Given the recent decline in stock prices, the indices are not all that far from where they were in the mid to late 90s, when everyone thought that China had so much promise — before so many folks got burned.
However, I think a lot of those problems have been dealt with, especially the failed joint ventures and the related bad assets in the banking system. In sum, I believe that China will probably be the first country to recover from the worldwide recession. Finally, it’s worth noting that China’s stock market has performed so much better recently than virtually any other market, with last night’s performance a good example. Stay tuned.
Positions in stocks mentioned: None.
Institutional support, that’s a good one! hahahahaha! Don’t ban jr. Fly, he is uber-funny!
Fly,
It would be great if everyone posting a reply had to stamp it with one or more details, eg:
– largest holding(s)
– % return YTD
– latest trade
And you ban the obvious abusers from replies.
largest holding – 67%cash
o-sham bucco?
HK still a dog, Fly, or do you think it will trade up with oil?
Anton,
I must warn you that I have almost a full year of cub scout training under my belt – circa mid-80’s.
Don’t bite off more than you can chew homie.
Maybe Fleck spent some strong USD and got a cheap haircut while he was there.
I’m hungry. Going to grab a SHAMburger and fries.
Largest Holding:
Philly under 195
Fleck is The Man!
So happy to see him on the China wagon!
Thanks Juice
Toobusytotrade:
My largest holding is between my legs.
Oh and Jake, I didn’t forget about you, I’m feverishly tracking you down. First by learning all I can about German hyperinflation and then…?
El Scorcho,
Sir, I urge you to “re-think” the construction of any sentence that might leave the impression that you have experience with cub scouts below your belt.
Also, I urge you to re-think your stance on the amazing Sham-WOW! and its
prophet, Vince, the eerily effective alien pitchman.
You’ll be saying, “Sham- !”
Anton,
Damn. Touche’.
How much will I save by not buying paper towels again?
Vince is Bill Clinton’s bastard child.
True story.
Real men don’t say seculent [sic], now go grab some Cambell’s Chunky and eat it cold, no spoon.
El Scorch,
Your savings will be virtually UNLIMITED.
Much like my losses will be in FXP, now that I see Fleck, aka “Mr. Mullet” getting all warm and fuzzy over his new China girl. He’s often early, but seldom wrong.
I’ll say, “Sham-OW!”
“Toobusytotrade Says:
Fly,
It would be great if everyone posting a reply had to stamp it with one or more details, eg:
– largest holding(s)
– % return YTD
– latest trade”
That’s a kickass idea, something that the Disqus idiots will never figure out.
Will do.
Posted Last Wednesday:
http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/5337/turkeyfirdaybg6.png
Today:
http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/1908/1222008ze3.png
GME hit my buy point but I don’t feel like catching this knife right now:
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/626/gme1222008vx5.png
Everyone should post their % return to date…or, the oldest celeb they’d spend a weekend in bed with.
I’m going with Helen Mirren, age 63.
New LOWS this month. DOWN tomorrow to new week lows.
Fly;
Put some ICE on your balls. We are all one trade away from working at Mcdonalds.
Dog, you are really working the raving lunatic thing to hard. Why don’t you relax and go fuck a goat.
‘Oil stocks are bucking the trend higher’??? Oil seems like it is stuck in a solid downtrend for now (guilty ’til proven innocent). Maybe equities are the ones bucking the trend lower??
go fuck a goat- delicious.
– largest holding(s): cash
– % return YTD: off a few points
– latest trade: that piece of shit fxp
Ann-Margaret AND Raquel Welch
Sixty something.
Big Ideas – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQexeALB6bo
FLY,
Whats up with Adams Options? Has there been a falling out? Is he still part of the site?
Short: “Adams Options”? $0.01?
Long: Gio,Alpha,RC,Wood,Danny
Handle business FLY, you know what to do.
Ottnott: HA! LMAO. I’ll take Beverly D’Angelo any day. As an 11 year old, I sneaked into the theater to see “Vacation.” That shower scene stays with you forever.
Devil Puppy: How do you still have any dollars left? What if we go to 1000 on the SPX before retesting the lows? Will you claim to be 1365% short then?
Ott —
Pam Anderson — forty sumpin.
Helen Mirren was pretty hot in “The Thief, the Cook, The Wife and Her Lover” though.
__________
I told you people before – China has only one problemo – 500 million too many people. They will F the world up because the cost of oil and other commods will skyrocket again due to these too numerous to mention people.
Most Definitely!
Sham-WOW Kung Pao Chicken
Phyllis Diller
I almost said Phyllis Diller, as a joke.
But I couldn’t bring myself to bear it.
Thanks for taking the load.
Is this “Aussie J” btw? With a new, more “capital” letter?
__________
if we arent up tomorrow get out of the way or play some etfs because we will have a 6 handle before christmas
Ott,
The Olsen twins are, what, 50+ if you put them together?
I’ll go with that.
Lipstick in School (priceless)
According to a news report, a certain private school in Washington was recently faced with a unique problem. A number of 12-year-old girls were beginning to use lipstick and would put it on in the bathroom. That was fine, but after they put on their lipstick, they would press their lips on the mirror leaving dozens of little lip prints.
Every night the maintenance man would remove them, and the next day the girls would put them back. Finally the principal decided that something had to be done. She called all the girls to the bathroom and met them there with the maintenance man. She explained that all these lip prints were causing a major problem for the custodian who had to clean the mirrors every night (you can just imagine all the yawns from the little princesses).
To demonstrate how difficult it had been to clean the mirrors, she asked the maintenance man to show the girls how much effort was required. He took out a long-handled squeegee, dipped it in the toilet, and cleaned the mirror with it. Since then, there have been no lip prints on the mirror.
There are teachers…and then, there are educators.
The Fly is an educator!
Zombie,
I know what you mean about Beverly D.
There was a B movie a few years later with her in it where she seduced her stepson or something. A little more graphic.
I’d do Janet Reno on a bet. Just tie a ribeye around her neck. Woof!
Whoa! Thanks for the rec, Ozark! Checking Netflix…
The Fly is God.
Scum Bucket’s only saying that because she is Janet Reno.
___________
wasn’t me jake. I’m definitely lower case.
Hey Jake, better watch out for Pammy, I hear she’s got the hep. Better wear a rubber. I’ll be riding Ms. Reno bareback. Woof!
Fly any idea why FXP is doing so badly? I mean the shit is barely up yesterday when the market takes a massive shit and then today the market goes up less than half as yesterdays down day and FXP just shits the shower Ducati style. What the fuck gives?
Zombie,
Found it on Amazon.
http://www.amazon.com/Widows-Kiss-Beverly-DAngelo/dp/6304069715
Fly, any opinion on FRO? I bought at 25.90 today.
Dividend is way down to .50, but that’s still about 7.5%
Oil still has tobe shipped and some producers are renting tankers to warehouse the oil, rate is about $42K a day per tanker.
The market somehow mangaged to inflict maximum pain on both longs and shorts.
Oh well, 100% in cash right now, tonight I will sleep well.
For the rest of you, I wish you luck that China’s economy will tank tonight.
CHL and LFC are the two main stocks that need to break lower for FXP to go up.
No one will ever explain to me why FXP and FXI are both down over a 12 month period. China has gotten the shit knocked out of them, and FXP is $20 below where I started following it. Gay.
I like FRO for the long haul but check out SFL – it’s about to pay out 20%; ex-div is soon.
Diane Lane for sure.
Rhea Perlman.
HOO-RAH!!
I should proportionately short FXI and FXP, since they are both terrible.
100 % cash …hope erin burnett wears her red thong tomorrow..could use another 1000 pt rally
RIMM reports preliminary numbers.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/081202/0457377.html
How’s everybody doin’?
– largest holding (Citigroup)
– % return YTD (Down 50%)
– latest trade (Doubled down on Lehman)
Well done, Ozark! Major karma points for you, Sir. Thanks!
Karl: HA!
Punyandy-
I second your gay notion regarding FXP. What a piece of monkey shit. On days the market tanks 6% FXP is up 10% (maybe). When the market is up 6% FXP is down 30%. Go figure. I am in at $53, but I am dumping that turd before week’s end.
Fly, the part about posting your YTD return, and largest holding, the thing that you said was a great idea…
Well Duh, its been done buddy. Its called Covestor.
I seen NONE of you have the balls to sign up and try and knock me out of the top 10.
The Fox –
I made quite a few good roundtrip trades late last year and early this year – buying under $80 and selling above $100. It worked quite a few times, and I had much more winners than losers. Midway through the year, the thing went bonkers. Obviously it would have been nice to have ridden it to $200, but now it trades in a completely asinine way. Again, FXI is near its 52 week low and so is FXP. Smells like Devildog’s portfolio – rotten.
I seen you done good on here, Woodrow, so’s I don’t has to goes to the Covester.
But I’s will.
Not to knocks you out of the Top of the 10, though, as I is a fan.
You is the only blogerator on the iBC what talks purty.
Anton, kewl. Let me know your handle, once you’re on.
I mean, everyone here likes competition, right?
So lets get it on. Sign up for Covestor, have your trades tracked, and lets see who comes out on top.
Woody,
I think I’m already on there, tho I haven’t checked the site since I found this one. Would be surprised if StockTwits doesn’t soon have a similar port tracking feature.
Who has time for all this blogitating?
But now that I know you’re on there, I’ll definitely check in.
If my port was any worse I’d be your average hedge fund manager.
Wood well said. i would like to see the so called young guns here sign up and see if they can deliver. i will sign up. you have to look out for the old man. lol.
Anton, Covestor is so simple. Once you get set up, you have to do nothing. Absolutely nothing. However, if someone doubts or calls you out on your success, or lack of it, just point them to your covestor page, where it will have all your stats. In your case, you may want to delete your previous account and start over, lol…couldn’t resist. 🙂
Anton,
you’re right. even though i can’t drink, hell i could still buy them.
Chivas, I will beware the greybeard!
Susan Sarandon or Nanci Pelosi, whomever is older.
GILF
Wood,
LOL. i meant to say for you to look after me. keep me on track.
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/12/02/another-bogus-yahoo-takeover-story-the-wsj-gets-it-wrong-and-this-time-people-lost-money/
my widget should be up soon
http://gizmodo.com/5101155/at-gizmodo-gallery-tiny-projectors-that-fit-in-your-hand-or-mouth
remember MVIS?
If Woody, Chivas & Chart Junkie are in, it must be a good idea.
________________
Chivas, if you keep hitting the ball like you have been, it is your DUTY to pick up the tab for those of us who still self-medicate.
The capitalist gentleman’s version of socialized medicine, no?
Addict, that is awesome!!!
Of course you know the top 10 has pretty much been owned by Tim Sykes and his followers, except for me and a few odd folks who move in and out.
It would be really really cool to establish an iBC presence.
Tina Turner.
I win.
Addict, I found you on there. You’ve got to get rid of the manual updating and move to automatic, so that it is verified.
I cant, genesis securities is not a “supported” broker. I have to take screenshots of my account and send in my trade statements. It’s time consuming and I don’t want to switch out to a different broker.
Shed
Do you move your stop loss levels a trade is placed or do change them if the position moves into a profit?
Boomer – any talk of micro projector gizmos built into phones, ipods or microwave ovens is not tolerated here.
Addict, bro, that sucks. What a pain!
Keep an eye on NOV.Below $20 has been a great entry point.Bounces right back to 28’s.
Piker – I’m just nostalgic.
wrong thread
Is there any information about this subject in other languages?