For me, the hard part is to sit with losses, no matter how painful they are. Meaning: it’s easy to cut losses and go short or follow the trend. It’s hard to sit there and say “fuck you asshole, I ain’t selling GE down here.”
That’s where most people start blowing goats (while in a losing position). They get all frazzled and shit, panicking out of stock, knifing into double inverses with impunity.
I don’t know if yesterday was some sort of selling climax or the beginning of a new down turn. However, being optimistic, I held onto 90% of my longs, while adding to a small FXP position (but is getting bigger), just in case news breaks of the pending destruction of planet Earth.
As you know, I’ve been developing an analytic engine, called The PPT. The biggest problem with ranking stocks is the not-so-subtle abject disrespect the market has for good fundamentals.
Meaning: with the exception to a handful of names, all stocks are trading in a convoy, making fundamental analysis almost useless.
Naturally, there are some striking factors that make stocks too attractive to ignore, such as net cash and high dividend yields. But, for the most part, today’s stock market is dumbed down to the point where I feel like I am living in a backward land (Virginia), trading some bullshit exchange (Nasdaq 5,000).
GS caught a downgrade today. UBS is telling investors both MS and GS will suffer big losses, over the next quarter or so. I must say, what happened to all of those asshats who were long GS, north of $200, exclaiming “they are best of breed”?
I warned you before, during the Asian contagion/LTCM crises, GS bit the big one, just like everyone else. No one should expect them to have super man powers and escape this wrath of a meltdown.
As for today’s tape:
The text book says we bounce here. I’ll have you know, “The Fly” does not believe in Santa Claus rallies. However, we’re down in a straight line here. God knows we need at least a one month respite of a calm/upward trading market. But then again, so does my imaginary friend; and he never grants me wishes of “instant death” upon my enemies or large, grass fed, rib eyes, upon a snap of my finger. Believe me, I try.
Top picks: GE, FXP, KBR, FAZ
Pressing my energy shorts. Staying the course.
I agree, Gamma. I am not short energy, but if I had to “pick a side” I would be in DUG here.
Fly-
I have been baning the table and telling people on this site and others to get short GS for months now. They may be best in breed, but a pretty turd is still a turd. They were caught up in the CDS game just like everyone else. They escaped the subprime meltdown, but they could not resist taking on leverage for their prop trading. With becoming a bank and unable to take on such leverage their ability to make money will be affected. You could still get short GS here. It think it tests its lows and breaks through to 45
DUG/FXP= worst etf’s known to man.
But then again, there was a time when SMN/SRS were the worst. Look where they are now.
The market will choose the path of maximum pain, and right now everyone thinking of hunting for bargains is about to get their heads lopped off.
T Moe:
You’ve been dead right on GS.
I was short from $150+, but covered when it broke $100.
Sidney Weinberg must be spinning in his tomb.
GA:
Actually, the market was on a 4 or 5 day winning streak, prior to yesterday’s bloodbath.
The easy trade is to expect the rally to be retraced. The path of max pain will be to squeeze the shorts here, since it makes no sense.
Believe me, I want my FXP, FAZ positions to appreciate, but I sense a nonsensical rally is possible here. Thus, I am net long.
Ford is cruising. It will easily break $3 today.
Im sitting in KBR from buying it yesterday during its brief rally. Including all turn around fees I am break-even at 12.92. But I am a small time player-200 shares. Dont think I will see break-even today.
I will be happy to study your PPT system when its ready.
I am holding some energy trust…MTR, CRT, SJT…..I must be crazy
Keep Flying….
Fly-
What do think about the oils. Last week they had quite a run with the rest of the market and it looks like they continue to lead the market on both sides
Fly-
Not sure why you don’t like DUG (short DIG instead?), but I completely agree with you on FXP. I am in at $53 and shit my pants every time the market rallies. FXP seems to enjoy 10% up days and 30% down days. WTF?
fwiw, bought some FXP this am.
We should bounce today … but I must most unfortunately side with the one known as The DevilsDog. Most probably new lows will be made before the handoff to Obama.
I cannot tell a lie, I am buying GE.
http://bewareofthedoghouse.com/videoPage.aspx
I am long a small amount of DUG. I have a lot of small positions, not worth mentioning.
But, for the most part, I believe long term DUG will be much higher, once the fundies catch up with the names.
XOM is too high up here.
Ah it’s great to be hedged in. When we go up I lose money, When we go down I lose money.
Covered a little GS and APPL
SHAM-WOW
“you’ll be saying WOW everytime.”
Fly-
I agree. How can the forward guidance from big oil be good with oil “shitting the bed” (to use one of your phrases). Oil below $50 can not be good for longs. I can see a relief rally from time to time, but DIG is going lower. Hell, I bought DIG at $23 when oil was $75. Now it is in the high $40s and is trading near $28???
JMHO
Wait until the last hour … hopefully they will push this market much higher and create another opportunity to make another sicking gain.
What’s wrong with Virginia?
Wood:
Dennis “The Commodity King” Gartman.
Need I say more?
Virginia was a foul disbeliever of the other Old Beardy.
Good grief. Everybody bearish here yesterday – and now they are BULLISH! WTF is up?
You gotta love Gartman.
His IQ is even higher, since he does not live in YankeeVille.
I have a feeling we rally into last hour and a half then people start to sell into the rally and it fades.
I completely agree with The Fly on DUG. There is perceived safety in the large energy co’s. But that will dissipate as crude continues to be damned to its rightfully place — HELL.
There’s no fucking escape:
Crude = $3?
I too like DUG here. But Donny lets be realistic $3 not a chance. $30 maybe.
Chevron has said that they will not change their capex plans, but I think $30 crude would make them reconsider.
Wood:
Remember, it was my ancestors who help burn down your cities, sans Savannah. Oh how beautiful Savannah was.
On this site, I noticed, people are responding much more fervently to bullish commentary. I believe this is a microcosm of the market. People want to believe in something.
Adding to BAC, GE and KBR.
The homos at the perfume section at Macy’s, ticker M, are on fire—running around—spraying people with Drakkar.
CNBC and NBC will suck BO’s dick for the next 4 years.
TMoe-
“That $3?”
As in thirty something.
Quit wasting all your money on paper towels.
FXP is a joke. I don’t know why I keep buying this thing for a hedge.
FXP=shamwow
“so does my imaginary friend; and he never grants me wishes of “instant death” upon my enemies or large, grass fed, rib eyes, upon a snap of my finger”
I shot coffee out of my fucking nose. I’m crying.
Fly..why isn’t anybody here trading currencies…equities action is nothin compared to the action in fx. Short pound..that shit will tank like a rock..going down to 1.25 at least..with leverage, once can bank some serious coin, shortly.
Those homos from Macy’s are tap dancing in the men’s bathroom for congressmen to the beat of Genesis. Probably dressed in Snuggies too, aka gay man’s robe.
Whoa! Rimm is toast!
toast is palm.
Me2:
SHAM-WOW
Market won’t rally with USO red.
How is business improving if nobody’s buying ANYTHING?
Umm, market is 200 points green.
STFU.
Elevation Partners really know their stuff.
ROFL
http://www.optionmonster.com/about/ap_why_subscribe.jsp
Sir Douchebag, who says they’re not buying anything? I just had my best week in the last several months.
Thought for the day: Life is getting better.
Latest PPT video looks great. Back to work.
OMG Guy Adami is selling a monthly newsletter on OptionMonster.com?
*chuckling*
USO UNG tanking. Riding my energy shorts hard.
“Oh how beautiful Savannah was”
She still is.
The south riseth againeth!
On hanging on to losers being hard to do –
Boy, is it ever! I’ve been sitting on my hands for 10 long months, but like the south, they will rise again and what a beautiful day that will be.
There is a certain romantic beauty in being a loser I suppose.
I just really hope some of them come back so I can make use of all I am learning now, and maybe of the PPT as well.
Fly, is the PPT designed for short term or day trading only?
Fly, the best part is that the sample newsletter (in the link) was getting long BHI, HAL, and SLB in early August. ALL DESTROYED shortly thereafter.
200 points green? That’s so 50 pts green circa 2007. Much like the ordinary shammy to your SHAMWOW, sans nutfuck with headset.
Guy Adami is a fucktard. He kept saying to buy Wachovia all the way down. His picks have sucked plain and simple. Listen to him and lose money
Chanci:
PPT is NOT for daytraders. Personally, I do not believe in it.
It is geared for swing traders.
Crude is rolling over people. NOT a good sign for the broader market!
Guy Adami should get an honest job, like re-selling my rags for $99.99.
My rags hold 20 times their weight because they’re made by Germans, and you know those fuckers know how to make good shit. Honestly, tell Guy Adami my fucking rags practically sell themselves.
My rags are genuine rags. Don’t be fooled by imitators.
Sham-WOW!!
I wish the sham-wow dude would kick that magic-jack dude’s ass! I would pay to see that…
So the PPT is something you could use when you can’t or don’t want to be tied close to the computer all day.
And because it does the technical and fundamental research for you, it would even give you more time away from the computer, while still being able to catch the momentum moves.
Less trading involved as well as less time spent on research.
Thank you, it makes sense.
Vince, I own one. Shit is really absorbent.
Plus I save big on paper towels. All I can say is WOW!