What the fuck is going on?
Granted, the market was a little overheated to the upside last week, spiking 20% in your face. But come on, this blood letting in BAC, GE, and every other stock in the universe is insane. No, it’s not insane, it’s, by golly, crazy.
The whole world has gone mad, with bombs on faces and sugar in the gas tank. I can’t tell the difference between a fig or a newton any more. They all look the same.
Investors just want to get out, before it’s too late of course. Then, just when you thought it is too late, guess what, it gets later. The market is a perpetual discounting mechanism, all the way to zero.
Look at treasuries:
The yields are screaming “every bank in the world is going out of business” type of action. How could one get long into that?
I say this, while being long through the nose.
I sold out the rest of my C position, just because. With the proceeds, I am holding cold hard cash. With that cash, I may go out and buy a lifetime supply of carnitas or beef burritos.
Look, either way, the market is going to ape rape you. Most of you do not have the experience, nor the aptitude, to make it through the coming depression. Do yourself a favor and quit gambling. Stop chasing rabbits down holes and quit trying to be early.
You fuckers need to be right, in order to get rich. All of this talk of carnitas is making me hungry.
Off to eat.
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My depression-style meal will be venison carnitas and wild sweet potatoe pie.
“It’s official: Recession since Dec. ‘07
The National Bureau of Economic Research declares… Monday”
LMAO, it only took NBER a year to declare it…
This market needs to rally the close, otherwise we could have a very ugly December. Imagine that! The month’s direction weighed in the balance of one day.
Alpha is a true outdoorsman.
Thanks Master Fly. If I had a sandwich I’d go eat one.
In ur words fly..the market follows the path of maximum frustration.
Rally the close? Ok, you go first.
Market follows the path of max pain—true.
the rally was on low volume / oversold / Fed intervention nonsense…
the banks still have trillions of debt — they won’t be making any new lows…. there will be millions of more job cuts…
Again — how anyone could BUY is beyond me.
fly, what’s your fucking problem?
“It gets late early out here.”
i have been long on 9-1 leverage the 10yr note from 3.86% yield till now. 90 million worth. just sold them all.
plus 342%
So before last week’s rally I took off my hedges.
Last week I switched from defensive names into tech.
And I put more money to work.
Today is all my fault. Sorry, bitches.
I rather have some sweet cameltoe pie.
Covered 2nd half of RJF @ 17.93 from 23. $4 higher than 1st half…but I don’t trust these dumber than dirt hayseeds…they’re hiring:
“Raymond James Financial Inc. is expanding amid other firms’ travails. While many of its peers are laying off workers in a bid to weather the credit crisis, the St. Petersburg, Fla., company is looking to boost its market share by snagging brokers, traders and bankers from these troubled firms.”
Yes, getting the hell out of the market is probably the best advice for 95% of the population.
Ken Lewis = Idiot
BAC = Fortune Cookie
The Amazing Fly Monkey!!! That is all.
Short 2K GPS @ 13…Ms. Scully says all their brand sites are down…on gay ‘Cyber Monday’.
On your mark. Get Set. Fill ‘The Gap’!!…to 11.
i got out of my UYG trade today. i was going to hold it through EOY, but there’s no limit to how fast people dump this crap. i’m going to watch the gold miners. see if they make a higher low. i still think the banks are much better off than people think.
You fuckers wait and see. As crude continues its pre-destined path straight to HELL, down go all the large energy co’s who have maintained some dignity in the S&P 500. They have held things up pretty well … but that will change as Dino Shit drops further.
S&P 500 = Sub 650 = Fortune Cookie
Boy oh boy, the market loves this 840 level… like some great giant sucking electro magnet … thingy.
_________
342% is pretty awesome.
SHAM-WOW: You’ll be saying WOW every time.
+342 for chivas. Good on you!
Fly,
thank you. that’s just for the trade. my ytd results are a lot lower than yours.
all of this is really simple: the fed is buying treasuries. Wait a miinute, did you get that? The government, which needs to raise money to pay for its bailout, has stepped up to the plate and bought its own debt. Okay, one more time. The rapidly going bankrupt corporation called the Fed is involved in a massive buyback of its own shares, hoping that nobody notices. All right, one more time, the govt. which has been issuing IOU’s to almost every other country known to man, has now issued brand spanking new IOU’s to itself, hoping that people will think that the old IOU’s are even more trustworthy and valuable and thereby lowering interest rates even further. This is a circle jerk for two: Paulson’s got Bernanke’s and Bernanke’s got Paulson.
And if you think this going to work, I’ve got a bridge for you in…
From my days working at the Cog Railroad in New Hampshire back in the Seventies:
HOLY O FUCKING PECKER.
I miss the inline quotes in your posts. Hope that comes back soon.
Would be nice if we could do the same in our comments.
just so you douche bags know ..the ussa govt has stopped their minting of the bullion eagle coins with the exception of the 1oz gold ..thats alot of gold they dont want to buy ..with that info and the price of gold dropping i will let you brains go after the facts …another fact the govt of the ussa did have to bail out the mining comps back in the 80s i think 85-86 thats around the time they started minting the coins to help the mining shit out..not sure if they shot their load ,or they are holding out for higher prices (which i doubt ), or there just isnt the demand anymore …
Boomer,
thank you.
Gold is a scam. Going nowhere fast, just like The Sham-Wow guy.
Top ETF’s, via PPT:
No. Ticker Acc/Dist Price Perf. Rel. Strength Volatility Volume Final Score
1 TLT 5 4 5 1 4 4.5
2 DEE 5 5 5 5 1 4.35
3 DTO 5 5 5 5 1 4.35
4 IEI 5 4 5 1 2 4.1
5 BSV 5 4 5 1 2 4.1
6 AGA 5 4 5 3 1 4
7 UUP 5 4 5 1 1 3.9
8 FXY 5 4 5 1 1 3.9
9 PLW 5 4 5 1 1 3.9
10 IEF 3 4 5 1 3 3.8
NOTE: Breakdown of overall market rank:
Average Technical Score: 1.877 (Full technical breakdown)
Average Fundamental Score: 3.603 (Full fundamental breakdown)
Average Hybrid Score: 2.605
no, it makes total sense.
the market has made several days of gains, a pullback is expected. its on the plate for today, so let’s get on with it shalltn’t we ? and no-one in their right mind would get long into this bitch. there’s no reason to buy.
who the fuck is going to do the honors and long dick this up so we can all wack the bitch back down ? not me. so … pause … down we go.
treasuries: the YIELD CURVE IS FLATTENING and might invert (why the fuck not ?). I mean vix at 60 is like relaxing now, so why not some negative yields and an inverted curve ?
big money (which is large and desperate) must find somewhere to burrow and hide. put aside common sense, quite simply there is a trend/bubble there and so the momentum junkies direct their boxes at it and pump it till its outlandish. common sense is irrelevant.
Can’t refute anything dfx just said.
Get your shotguns ready.
That’s a lot of Chivas, Chivas.
Cheers!
one of your bloggers knows i was long that trade.
PPT Lowest ranked stocks:
1 LNG 1.15 1.7 1.38 -31.68% 12.2%
2 XNPT 1.5 1.3 1.42 -27.92% -15.48%
3 COIN 1.1 1.95 1.46 -16.57% -22.75%
4 CPTS 1.45 1.5 1.47 -21.81% -37.18%
5 VLNC 1.25 1.75 1.47 -31.94% -33.78%
6 VRSN 1.25 1.8 1.49 -31.65% -36.86%
7 TRE 1.6 1.35 1.5 -6.83% -28.91%
8 ALXN 1.2 1.9 1.5 -31.51% -25.74%
9 BMRN 1.25 1.9 1.53 -31.08% -31.08%
10 THC 1.25 1.9 1.53 -14.53% -10%
BREAKING NEWS:
iBC commenter, “CAP”, just announced on Fox Business channel (no one watches it) that he would in fact suck his own cock, providing the market closed green today.
Developing…
What Chivas says is true. I have an email time stamped and dated that makes it so.
Not that anyone doubts him.
Congrats Chivas!!!
Anton,
thank you. can’t drink anymore.
Woody,
my friend, thank you.
PERSHING IS BACK UP!!!!
Praise the Lord.
Fil Zucchi
10:48:47 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
China: bad news from modern-day Nostradamus
Last night the History Channel ran one of its many documentaries on Middle Age “prophet” Nostradamus.
Aside from the always intriguing “spook” factor of the shows, last night was particularly interesting as it featured NYU Prof. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Prof. de Mesquita has made a name for himself – controversial as it may be – by devising a mathematical algorithm which purports to predict the future of “foreign relations” and geopolitical developments. It turns out that independent historical backtesting of the algorithm, as well as its forward looking predictions, show approximately a 90% accuracy record, much to the annoyance of the more traditional political scientists who beat their heads against the wall for years only to find out someone else got there ahead of them.
Anyway, what’s this got to do the markets? If Prof. de Mesquita is correct, a whole lot. Asked point blank what his model suggests about the Chinese economic resurgence, the Prof. offers that it will fail and the Chinese economy will collapse under its own weight. The timing of such an event is uncertain, but it is being measured in years rather than decades.
Dude what the fuck? Just two weeks ago you kept pumping about market bottom and we should rally from here and now here you are bitching about the market and suggest that we should sell? fucking flipflopper.
Chivas–
Well done! I guess Fly knows what happened to his time machine now!
Chivas:
When you put the trade on, how far would rates have had to rise before your 9x levered equity was wiped out?
That’s an awesome trade. Congrats.
Courtesy of The Rithz
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/mega-bear-quartet-large.gif
http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-duet
Chivas,
I haven’t been dropping into my favorite blog as much as I used to, but it seems you’ve made yourself scarce of late. Keep posting your positions for us pikers.
And just because you can’t drink anymore doesn’t mean you can’t buy drinks for everybody else.
Ho, ho, ho and all that.
Okay. I am now thinking out loud and talking out of my ass.
The recession started in Dec. 2007 and if I recall the first market bear appeared last Aug. or so ( I think).
The market is forward looking about six months or so and thus predicted the recession beginning in Dec. The recession is already a year long and things look bleak.
The market should start to look ahead six months or so again and thus we may be bottoming in the market (but not the economy).
Just a thought.
Go Chivas! You’re my hero today.
what happens when you have hyperinflation of dollar bills, along with other currencies coupled with a complete annihilation of credit and lending, while people hoard dollars because they don’t know where to invest?
Keyser,
around 43 basis points. trades like that you can hedge either through futures or options or both.
thank you.
Buy my rags!
You’re gonna spend 20 bucks a month on paper towels anyway. Stop throwing your fucking money away.
Sham-WOW!!
What’s the deal? Didn’t the PPT say the whole market was a buy? What’s going on?
Boca,
thank you very much.
The great thing about markets: shit changes everyday.
PPT is indicating a sell now. However, that does not mean I need to adhere to it today. It’s an indicator. However, it is an incredibly good one.
RC will demonstrate its timeliness tonight.
Lows! Get your lows heah! Hot fresh lows!
People can’t lend, so the real estate market gets demolished, despite the dollars, because it is a function of mass quantities of borrowing… as are other businesses, but as this happens, this continues to hurt retailers and they continue to collapse as people no longer have the home equity lines of credit and the same equity, and they no longer have the same credit lines from bank, meanwhile, banks have cut jobs and the nations average income goes dowenn. Banks have to really have some kind of fire sale in real estate, which pushes prices down, and that continues to compound the problem.
Then the retailers can’t expand and are forced to contract. And the lending does as well because of the retailers getting in trouble.
Of course, with obama’s team shaping to be a rerun of what created this mess, we will likely continue to see stimulous and bailouts, and the money will continue to flood the system., but it won’t get things moving again.. But eventually after all thes busineses start liquidating and shrinking, and contracting, eventually it will pave the ways for those to find areas with limited competition, and maybe they’ll even start buying up all the old assets of the businesses (if we let them, and don’t continue to try to bail out). Then eventually prices will depress until they finally are affordible, and businesses will grow. Then all of the cash that’s been in the system will be flooded. People will have tons of dollars, and because the US had to borrow to wash away this massive dvalue of debt, they rapidly try to borrow even more, and get even larger loans and print even more money, and at that point, the inflationary rally, and hyperinflation and america as well as the world becomes zimbabway.
The fed will continue to be in a rate cut/hike squeeze where they can’t do either one without serious implications.
Chivas: Thanks for the response.
Poor old Bernanke, he had no fucking chance. It seems Greenspan left him with 20 fucking years of shit when his term expired.
We’ve been living in a fucking bubble people. Wake the fuck up!
we drop 400 points and FXP goes up 4 bucks. lame.
if we were up 400 points, you know that POS would have a 3 handle.
Keyser – thanks for thanking Chivas.
FXp and SKF is dragging slowing than my 100 year old GGrandma. whats the deal with that ? Waiting for a glorious dump on the hng sng tonight
Greenspan is an empire killer.
Fucking bastard.
You sound so sure that there will be a glorious dump. If this market turns around in a few hours, FXP back to 52…
FXP is stuck in tar.
I must admit, for a down 6% day, the market is eerily calm.
And fuck Helicopter Ben too.
The Bearded Clam is death to equities.
Today we get the Bernanke/Paulson double-team, this bizsnatch is going to negative 1G today.
NEGATIVE 1G I SAY!
Ps, to the Obama-loving douche, Alf, fuck off.
For every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction.
Ask yourself, what is the equal and opposite reaction of the previous 35+ years of debasing the currency by removing us from the gold standard?
roflmbo!!!
“The Fly Says:
The Bearded Clam is death to equities.”
GE is today’s tell, a litmus test of sorts.
Watch it ever so quietly and slowly.
You fucking people have problems. 10yr at fucking 272? All of you are complete idiots in that fucking place next door, fucking retarded bond traders.
Gold standard?
What exactly does gold represent?
Labor?
Shiny metal.
Please.
Why not make coal the standard? It takes a long time to mine that shit too.
You gold bugs are living in ancient times.
“The Fly” proposes putting the dollar on the “Coal Standard,” much to the chagrin of envirowhacks.
Buying MOS SLV GG CHK PBR
Get ready for the “Hope” and “Change” rally, also known as the “Messiah Rally”.
HERE COMES PAULSON…50 min and counting…market falls 75 points everytime that man open his mouth…
What the fuck is wrong with HK!? Only down 5% when NOV (much better company, much lesser P/E) is down 15%…Anybody know why?
Treasuries= the new bubble.
Fuck it:
gapping buy: I bought 1000 TBT at 45.50.
Disclaimer: If you are still buying TNX here you are a fucking retarded dirt worm fucker.
Does PBR stand for Pabst Blue Ribbon… I can sure use some of that shit right now!
Chivas – Congrats. Great job.
Coming Soon to a Market Near You: A Huge “Obama Spring” Rally
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
Fly,
What does the PPT says about HK? Its hovering around the 50EMA…One of the few stocks above 50 EMA…
Sold SRS and BGZ (Gracias RC).
Yogi,
thank you.
Bernanke looks like a very sick man. also looks like he has aged a lot.
I should have waited a few hours to buy TBT.
What does the Donnymeister have to do to you people? Throw ice water in your faces? Look Out! It’s coming down! Crash City!
BURNanke killing TBT here… waiting for an opportunity to pounce…
If TBT falls much more I am going to avg down.
Sharpen your bayonets as we are about fight! Ten Year buyers be dammed with your 9% move! You will soon face the wrath of a colonoscopy.
DannyBoy,
How are you buying TBT, if the Fed just mentioned they would put a ceiling on the long-end maturities bonds?
I am not sure exactly if I am right or not?
Fucking idiots, Earth is the new bubble. Space aliens – trade accordingly.
Jason Roney
02:22:27 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
First Time for Everything…
It’s been a year of “first time in history events” so it’s only fitting we get a few more today:
The worst one day performance in December for the S&P 500 was -5.41% in 1929.
The worst first day of month ever for S&P 500 was -4.76% in June 1931.
Currently the S&P 500 is -6.3%.
Just get the fuck out of TBT. We’re treading in unfuckingprecedented waters here. I think we all understand that T-Bills are a bubble, however, it can become a lot fucking bigger.
Just don’t fuck with the trend.
Here one for your time machine…
Citigroup commented on General Electric Co. (GE) ahead of tomorrow’s GE Capital webcast. The firm said the webcast could be a forum to lower its 2009 outlook.
The likelihood of this being the case this year appears reasonably high given the short notice on the webcast (announced on 11/25) and the unprecedented macro and financial upheaval.
This will pull us further into hell…
History is being made here. You have to go back to 1955 the last time interest rates were this low. On top of that it is a .9% move in two weeks or over 1% in a month, which is another record. Big movements usually have strong rallies the other way. This means bonds are pricing in a depression. Bonds always go the opposite way of stocks. It was not until last October did we have these odd bond rallies. The last rally we had bond prices dropped. On top of that the big move which usually means correction as traders take profits. I understand the Government put 1.3 trillion into the system to buy agency debt and consumer debt on Monday and Tuesday. Still I did not think they would take the manipulation this far? You see the FED creates that money out of thin air. By giving the Banks T-Bills to sell and then buying them back. That is how wealth is created in this country now days. Everything else is falling. Sooner or later it will not have a pretty ending. This could cause a serious unavoidable crash in the bond market. At which point you can kiss our monetary system, the value of our dollar, goodbye.
i think it’s time to start making a list for very very high grade corporate bonds.
ppt would be a tremendous help here.
Somebody needs to tell Hank and Ben – we need a bigger infusion! $8.5 trill ain’t gonna do it!
Merrill, BofA Plan Up To 10,000 Layoffs In Invest Bking…
Perhaps FLY’s timing on BAC in spot on…
I had carnitas last night, I’m apparently ahead of the curve for once.
Big Mike: This article sums up my thoughts on TBT very good and also has a link in it to a paper Bernake wrote in 2004 pretty much telling us what he will do in this situation. Also the fact treasuriers are pricing in a great depression and banks are issuing FDIC backed debt makes me think there is going to be a reversal. Keep in mind this is a very very small part of my $ I’m playing with here.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/108302-fun-with-government-bonds
Also anyone have any thoughts on LQD?
The Coal Standard! I like this idea. I’ll set a price target of $95 a share for my ACI.
If GE is the tell, it made a lower high on this rebound, and is rolling over
I will go on the record saying that the next jobless report hits 1 million.
They are boarding up the windows on a lot of commercial property and restaurants in my town.
Anchor tenants have stopped paying rent.
Jobless rate is 10%+ (Central Oregon)
Idiots. Why would you buy TBT when the FED is going to print money out of thin air to buy 10 year T bills from paulson and create more debt for the taxpayer that we can worry about later? TNX to 23.
Following Paulson’s market dipping speech I will commence my grand endeavor of legging into F in a most grotesque manner. I will only be pouring boxes of coin into Ford because, quite frankly, they’re the only one of the 3 that stands to survive through 2009 if no bailout comes. But it will. This government spends more money than a drunk, coked-out sailor in a whorehouse.
“WASHINGTON – President George W. Bush expressed remorse that the global financial crisis has cost jobs and harmed retirement accounts and said he’ll back more government intervention if needed to ease the recession:
And rest assured, the big three already have a bullshittedly plausible plan to present a Turkey-stuffed Congress on Wednesday.
Who’s with me??? Come on chaps, we’ll be Scrooge rich by Wednesday close!!!
Oh fuck didn’t know Paulson was going to talk or I would have shorted more via TZA. FUCK! This faggot always tanks the market just like DEVILDOG always causes the market to rip.
Tudor in the news:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a6rR5MN3_98w&refer=us
You fuckers should have listened to me!
Boo-Fooking Ya! Buy now or be priced out 4ever.
scum bucket: Buy now or be priced out, or sell now or be priced out?
These lows are fresher than BOOMER’s biscuits!
Damon-
Good call. The actual jobless rate is a lot higher than what’s being reported, since they changed the parameters to fudge the figures in the Reagan administration.
The market just loves this guy, Paulson, huh?
He better address Credit Card Debt, because the 5 major issuers are all cutting back credit limits in a MAJOR way. People with good payment histories and $20K limits, are getting cut to $3K limits when they are already carrying $2.8K on the card!
The consumer won’t be able to spend, even if they WANT to!
FXP slowy poppin’
Damon-
AMEX cut me from $15 to $10k earlier this year. They told me to wait six months. I’d been paying it down, got my balance to around $8k. I had a major car repair, asked if they could boost me back to $12k. They cut it to $8400.
Bank qualifying for TARP, my ass.
Chivas – please post what you find on the high grade corporates.