Thanks to iBC’s gentleman of the south (it shall rise again, just not now), Woodshedder. for the suggestion.
Old man Buffett has been making lots of bonehead moves. If I owned Berkshire stock, I’d be selling that fucker quicker than Buffett is giving away his fortune.
UPDATE: Idiots who got it wrong. Ben Stein and co. are fucking idiots.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw 450 300] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Hey, don’t rule out anything. If a year ago, you would have said, “how cool would it be if AIG went belly up?”, I would have laughed you to scorn.
Maybe senility is really setting in for Buffett. People pay too much attention to outward apprearances and reputation.
You’re only as good as your worst trade.
Buffett may be rich, but he’s never been one of my faves. Something about the folksy attitude has always bothered me.
I don’t think even Buffett expected the recession to be as difficult as it has turned out to be.
Buffett could take some lessons from the Fly.Warren has been buying Puts.Who said you can’t teach an old dog new tricks?
I don’t like Buffet because of his “I got mine, fuck you” politics.
I’d like to see the Dems throw up a “over $500 mm” 95% wealth tax, just to see him shit his pants.
Test his “folksy manner” a touch.
______
I don’t think even Buffett expected the recession to be as difficult as it has turned out to be.
What’s weird is that the recession isn’t even really here yet.
Sure is price in though, isn’t it?
______
Crude, whattaya think of the OPEC move to cut even more production.
Aside: I was just out bringing the boys to the barber, and heard the radio “news” on the G-20 Summit… that Bush felt it was “extremley productive,” etc, etc…
Everything sounded good until the last sound bite, which was “If we DON’T get act to get this right soon, we’ll be worse off than during the Great Depression.”
Way to be reassuring, Georgie.
_____
Not to worry. The Treasury would simply bail him out.
Way to head your industry off from the bankruptcy spiral UAW!
Clear thinking!
________
Gettelfinger is an idiot. The union members deserve to lose their jobs for having an asshat like him at the helm.
Nibblin’ on dead corporations
Watchin’ the sun bake
All of those big caps not covered with oil
Strummin my portfolio
On my numb-dumb assholio
Smell those options they’re starting to boil
Chorus:
Wastin away again in bizarro billionville
Searching for my lost equity stake
Some people claim that there’s an advisor to blame
But I know its nobody’s fault
I dont know the reason
I sold puts for the k-winter season
Nothin to show but this brand new tattoo
But its a real beauty
A mexican cutie
How it got here I havent a clue
Chorus:
Wastin’ away again in bizarro billionville
Searching for my lost equity stake
Some people claim that there’s an advisor to blame
Now I think
Hell, it could be my fault
I blew out my investors
Stepped on a derivatives blow up
Cut my heel had to cruise on back home
But there’s cash in the drawer now
And I know somehow
I’ll be long dead before it’s all gone
Wastin away again in bizarro billionville
Searching for my lost equity stake
Some people claim that there’s an advisor to blame
Now I think
Hell, it could be my fault
Some people claim that there’s an advisor to blame
And I know its my own damn fault
That was good stuff, scum bucket. +2 for that.
Let me embellish the image from the previous post: an old man in urine-stained boxers looking for pennies and ABC Wrigleys in a crowded Omaha Greyhound station.
Will blow you for soda.
Look I need to address something here. Many of you are complaining that Hussein Obama is not at the G69 summit. Well you people need to get a clue, this man need not associate himself with these mere mortals. Once he takes the reigns of this shit hole country he only needs to utter words like “change” or “hope” or “yes we can” and poof this peril of death they call the credit crisis will disappear faster than Miley Cyrus’s virginity. There is no need to have plans of attack or input from godly hedge fund managers like Ken Griffin or James Simons. In this case “hope” is better than a plan so forget what you learned in the past, words mean everything now. So until Jan 20th he will sit back eating his sweet potato pie and ice cream just prepping his lips to mumble one of these 3 phrases and make the boogey man go away by paying your mortagage and ungodly high ($1.90) gas prices.
Warren doesn’t tend to look at things in the 1yr or 2yr time window. His bonehead moves today will probably pay off in 5 or 10 yrs provided all of these too big to fail companies don’t find a way to fail. When you have as much money as he does, you can afford to buy during the fall, before the bottom and wait it out a decade or two. Sadly, for us and for him, he might not be around to see his bets get paid off.
Fly, you should add this Evil Speculator guy to your blogroll.
I think he might be a disciple.
__
The index puts Buffett sold are very long dated. I don’t remember the precise expirations off the top of my head, but I’m pretty sure they are very long dated and don’t expire until something like 10 or 20 years from now. So the losses Doug Kass keeps raving about are unrealized mark to market losses.
The Goldman and GE investments are preferred stock with warrants. There’s no market for the preferred, and at least as of today both institutions are viable, so he can probably get away with marking the preferreds at par. If the auditors let him mark the preferred at par and he uses Black Scholes to mark the warrants, then he’s actually showing an unrealized gain while earning a 10% divvy.
It’s good to be the Warren.
Jake —
I’m with you, brother. I don’t like his “I got mine fuck you” politics, either.
Paricularly the part about giving his fortune away to charity. What a prick!
I know we don’t have to worry about you pulling a dick move like that.
crude_oil Says:
Buffett could take some lessons from the Fly.Warren has been buying Puts.Who said you can’t teach an old dog new tricks?
November 15th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Where did you here that? I heard he’s “writing” puts on BNI, which means selling. I think you may be mistaken, but then again, I certainly may have missed some info.
He called derrivitives “weapons of mass financial destruction” or something. I wonder if he meant for the economy as a whole, owning them (long)or for all derrivitives themselves. And if he meant in general, or for most individuals that don’t understand them.
Since his company sells insurance, and since he doesn’t believe the world is ending, it would make sence for him to want to sell puts. Surprised he doesn’t sell deep OTM short term calls too.
Jake…really?
I would be much more inclined to promote the guy running the King of the Peanut Gallery, his charts, his thoughts and his trading principles are clear and consistent.
Hats off to that guy and his steady and solid contributions.
I truly believe market technicals and fundamentals are about to converge…causing this market to build upon itself in a melt up of sorts…
Then of course to follow the “don’t want to be left behind” crowd….gotta love those characters…
The Bottom will be marked when they repo Warren’s 2005 LeSabre.
Why do people overlook the fact that someone paid big bucks for those puts? Why do they think that old buffet is the smart one and the buyer is teh stupid?
Short sellers buffett raid, oh nos!!! and then the market panics and it bottoms, or we spin into world war 3 and then we bottom, or riots breakout and nation breaks into the 2nd cival war, and market tanks for awhile and then we bottom.
Do you realize how pathetic most of you sound? Droning and humming, “Warren is an idiot”. . . what a group of underperforming imbeciles!
Treading on Zombie’s territory here but:
BRK-A year to date versus the Fly P/L.
Read it and weep KO you pussified haters..
Never liked Buffet. Always thought the integrity shtik with him was bullshit act.
The guy thinks people don’t pay enough in income tax which is all well and good because he’s likely to be only pay Cap gains.
Like Jake said, lets see the fucker squirm if he had to pay a wealth tax.
The trouble with buffet is that he’s an envious prick. He doesn’t want other people to get rich- only himself.
The only people who defend buffettt are the ones who don’t even understand how the system works. buffett is a pig, giving your money to charity doesn’t change that. His name might as well be leona helmsly.
Jack, where’s a good read about this oil guru Henry Groppe over on oildrum.com and his thoughts on energy and oil prices.I think he is spot on.Check it out.
I don’t like to relish anyone’s misfortune.
Perhaps I’m sensitive to the issue as I watch S Carolina’s misfortune against Florida?
Many years ago, when Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway was BIG into tobacco stocks, he was speaking at a shareholders meeting.
To quote:
“I’ll tell you what I like about cigarettes”
“What I like about cigarettes, is that they cost a penny to make, and you sell them for a dollar”
Enough said.
(This was well after the facts were made clear on the tobacco/cancer link).
Buffet eventually got BRK out of those pesky tobacco stocks.
Now, whenever I see Buffet doing a photo-opp or “news piece” on TV. He is always chomping on a cheeseburger and sucking down a cherry coke. (One of Berk’s big holdings)
When asked in an interview what he liked most about his success…he said the corporate jet.
How capitalistic and narcissistic and superficial is THAT?
Turns out, the “Oracle of Omaha” loves his burgers, sugary sweet cherry cokes….but his real trophy is his Gulfstream IV.
That airplanes high-bypass turbofans suck down jet-A like cherry coke. But Warren’s too cheap to upgrade to a G5.
Jake, here’s a link quoting Julian’s returns. His track record is widely quoted. I also have another book somewhere that lists his annual returns.
http://books.google.com/books?id=dWqsjHraUlwC&pg=PA155&lpg=PA155&dq=tiger+management+track+record&source=web&ots=NFeioKoS3X&sig=Nws-OVWLNLzDBu-Y4zRdW2ch9Qw&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=4&ct=result#PPA156,M1
J,
Glad to hear you abhor Buffett’s greed — envy is the last refuge of the underperformer.
Every decade or so people say Buffett has lost it. Newsflash. He hasn’t.
The only way he loses on the GE and Goldman deals is if they go bankrupt. Meanwhile he makes 10% a year on his money and gets ALL the stock upside because of his warrants.
He still has tens of billions of dollars in cash. He is on record that he won’t go below a certain amount of cash. He doesn’t use leverage.
So what’s a definition of a blowup? If he loses 40-50% on his stock holdings? Big deal. He will still be worth tens of billions of dollars. He lost 40-50% on his stock holding back in the 70s. It happens. Since he’s primarily long-only, that’s pretty much where the indexes are. Is that a blowup after this ridiculous track record in the last 50 years?
You want to see definition of a blowup? Look at the the guy who owns Las Vegas Sands. He went from being one of the richest guys in the world like a year ago, to losing like 90% of his wealth.
And btw, Buffett has been WELL OUT IN FRONT of this severe recession and said multiple times in the media and TV this could be a depression.
Here’s my notes from CNBC interview in August:
Warren Buffett CNBC Interview Notes
August 22nd, 2008 | Categories: Learning
-thinks downturn will be “longer and deeper”. Won’t be better five months from now
He also said on Charlie Rose months ago, this could be a Depression type recession. But hey guys, don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Brownshirt —
Would that he’d give everyone else that option to do with their money as they chose.
Unfortunately, he (like you, I assume) believes he is the only virtuous man, and therefore able to make that call for the rest of us.
That’s th genius of my 95% wealth tax. It doesn’t give him the choice to give away his money, but rather allows it to be stolen from him, just like the hoi polloi.
You can remove your moniker’s quotes, now, comrade.
________
_____
I would be much more inclined to promote the guy running the King of the Peanut Gallery, his charts, his thoughts and his trading principles are clear and consistent.
I said “blog roll him” not give him a tab, dammit.
Sheesh.
And I agree about Weekend Tech guy or whatever his name is.
Very amusing.
_______
Fuck yo all. BRK/A will be at $400K before I’m put to rest.
EB — try reading for comprehension.
Julian finding some young talent to leech off of in his dotage (so as not to feel like “Methusalah”) is not the same as Julian making the calls himself and putting his once prodigious balls on the line.
And the old geezer from Sands lost more like 99% of his stash.
And yes, losing 50% of 50bn would be a pretty egregious meltdown.
Julian had his head to him the time dollar yen fell from 145 down to 111.25 in 72 hours during the asian crisis. He was never the same again.
He also did one of the best paired trades I have ever seen too. He sold Japanese airlines and bought US airlines during the 90’s.
Holy Shit. Has this place devolved into a cesspool of retarded commentary or what? Between everybody talking shit about some old rich guy to Alpha writing a post about stupid conspiracies.
Fly, what the hell happened..? You’re the only one that seems to keep this place above yahoo message board standards.
And yes… The fact that any of those people that were laughing at Peter Shiff still have jobs is egregiously fucked.
buffet’s cool.
weekend anarchy
FUCK BUFFETT.
Back to my 100th glass of Sciotch. (hiccup)
Look, I’ve read through Buffett’s Q2 and Q3 2008 reports. I can’t find anything that says BRK will meltdown with the Dow below 7,500. But keep in mind I’m not a numbers guru.
Although it was something that was suggested to me by someone I trust.
You’re the only one that seems to keep this place above yahoo message board standards…
::who:: try it. You’re the only one ::who:: seems retarded.
Scotch should be sipped, you REDNECK.
Why is it that the ‘tards always scream the loudest about everyone being an idiot?
Fuck Buffett – but if he goes down, there will be massive collateral damage to the life insurers and annuity companies.
Fly,
If you’re going to stay drunk all weekend, at least make it Woodford.
That stuff from Scotland’ll rot your little liver right out.
_______
J
Thanks. Yeah, now I see the difference between catching the knife and buying trading ranges.
Q: For the minnow, what’s the advantage of trading TAN with the 1% fee;, or shouldn’t i be buying the 400,000 volume traded solars without the fee?
phd, j may have a different opinion, but here’s mine.
That 1% is insurance against having your arms and legs blown off.
Solar is the new biotech.
Fly, for asshat of the century i vote Joe Kernan on CNBC. Stein and other guys who are WRONG have their 3 minute interviews and are gone. Kernan is the gatekeeper of info and in J,J,A,Sept 07 he refused to listen to the warnings of Fund Mgrs and Analysts he interviewed warning of the coming meltdown.
Every day for 4 months Joe(I’d prefer to Voice MY Opinion)Kernan would talk over and dismiss the warnings as foolish. “Come onnn. The subprime mess couldn’t be more than 300 or 400 MILLION. Do the math. It’s just impossible.”
If the D-bag would just ask a question and STFU. He’d much prefer to tell us how smart he thinks he is.
Fuck Buffett. He was good back in the day.
Peter Schiff is alright. I wouldn’t recommend his latest book “The little book of bull moves in bear markets”. I think he goes a bit to far!! “buy guns and stock up on canned foods” Crazy like his father…
Woods,
I’m sure I’ll trade better as a non-amputee. Appreciate it. Insrnc premiums are a pain until needed.
Johnny-Fuck Buffet is right. He owns what, 50% of Moody’s the wonderful “premier” ratings agency who got us into this shit. Isn’t he responsible and due for Jailtime? in Omaha of course.
Woods- Hope you’re correct for all our sakes-“Solar is the new biotech.”
Not a question of “IF” yet, “WHEN”.
Johnny Rawcus — is his Dad the old sports caster?
There’s another Schiff, Jeremy? He’s at ESPN, I think…
_______
Wood:
Only pussies sip Scotch.
I am a man. I fucking guzzle my Scotch, as if it was iced tea or Kool-Aid.
Developing…
BTW: i have some hilarious shopping mall stories. Desperate merchants.
I thought you lived in the city, Fly. I never realized you were a suburban mall rat.
So tell us some of the stories. How are they trying to lure you in?
J:
you must be a single idiot.
Only morons live in the city. Anyone with sense lives in the subs.
Hey Fly, do you rider a 50 cc chinese made scooter to work? ::ducks, outta here::
I will tell my stories tomorrow.
@JakeGint – His dad has been in and out of jail. He is a tax protester. His name is Irwin Schiff. I’m sure you can find something about him on the web.
Tomorrow, I’m going shopping for a new shotgun at the mall. I’ll have a few mall stories too.
I remember Buffet saying…possibly a couple a years ago…
…“Credit Default Swaps are weapons of financial mass destruction” !
Lotta people laughed at him then and disregarded that little timely warning !
————————-
How’d that work out for ya AIG ?
How bout you Lehman and Bear Stearns ?
Uhhh…well alrighty then !!!
.
@phd in psych – Yeah, he’s the largest shareholder
I’m not single and wasn’t living there.
I/we reared to “well adjusted” NYC kids 🙂
You gotta get out of the burbs, Fly. Man up. the burbs are for pussies.
Used to work with bozos that lived in the burbs and the poor fucks had to be up at 5.30 in the morn to be in the office. 1&1/2 hour commutes shortens you life.
You’re up 80% for the friggen year. Get yourself an apartment on 5th or Park ave and start living, Fly. Fme.
Here i found you a great apartment building.
http://wirednewyork.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4612
Buy one of these and Beth will fall immediately in love with you. She’s that type of gal. You deserve a trophy wife after this years performance and who knows Tudor jones could even invite you to the next Robin hood.
ALf 44
Credit default swaps have worked out better than any other shit. You’re talking crap. AIG were a bunch of fucking morons that only sold that stuff.
here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122670411909729683.html
Don’t get worried about the size of the market as it’s only notional.
CDS were one one way margined and no bank has experienced any particular problem. So the idea that they were bad is fucked up thinking.
You’re nuts J.
Mrs. Fly hates Manhattan. She grew up there.
ahhh…I see !
Sounds like YOU may be the one “talkin’ crap” !
With all due respect, of course !
.
Get rid of her and “buy” marry a version that likes the city. For fuck sake, Fly, you’ve returned 80% in a down market. Don’t under sell yourself.
give her the marching orders that you’re moving with or without her. Stop being a pussy.
————————–
Alf44.
I’m not talking crap, you are. CDS are a good product that offer insurance to customers that wish to buy it.
The fact that it is 60 trillion “big” is of no consequence in of itself. For lords sake the forward market in currencies is probably 500 trillion by now and the spot market trades around 5 trillion a day.
Stop listening to Miss piggy (Waxman) and listen to me as I know more. The scary news about CDS is a load of leftist swill.
J —
Are you trying to get the Fly’s balls machete’d?
STFU.
Besides, he does not live in the “burbs” per se, but in NYC.
Just over a big ass bridge.
________
Brooklyn?
What did you call Brooklyn once, Jake. It was kinda funny but I forget now.
anything more than a 10 minute commute is for back office staff or juniors. You know that.
Hey jake before you retire for the night and I have to take the dog for a walk…
What were those preferreds you were talking about the other day in RBS? as I am going to take a look at them tomorrow my time. What are they yielding now?
J – I’m not from NYC. I believe the term is BT or B&T – Bridge and Tunnel people(riffraff)
I’m not hating, I know my poor ass would be one.
Buffet is indeed going down. No more BJ’s from CNBC chicks.
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/pictures/view/1064430/
new depths in housing crisis
Fly lives in Bensonhurst on Stillwell AVE.He runs a hot dog stand on the weekends at Coney Island.Fly the gumba.
Ha!!
I do not live in BK.
Just know, anyone living in NYC is either single, gay or a maniacal moron.
People who are interested in leading a somewhat normal existence, live outside of the rats nest.
RBS preferred T’s are what I own. Yielding something monstrous right now… over 20%. I bot ’em at $6.05, though (for the second time), so I don’t much care.
Oh, and I used to call Brooklyn “Crooklyn,” which was a Spike Lee thing.
Fly does not live there, those are the small, old bridges.
__________
That’s it crooklyn…’
Thanks for the rest.
The problem is that Buffett himself wrote some CDSs.
Jake,
You’re an idiot. That link was for the Julian’s annual returns proof. Not his PA last 8 years.
He does in fact invest his PA. If you talk to any Tiger cub, you would know he has killed it (from multiple sources). He was also interviewed in Fortune last year talking about how he had is best month ever investing on the steepener trade, if public interviews to stupid media is the only proof you want.
Also how do you think Julian is doing this year being super short in his PA?
Jake, I don’t freaking mess with me, I said 90% on Sheldon (Las Vegas Sands) to be conservative. With the hundreds of millions he put in the company in recent weeks, he obviously has money outside of Las Vegas Sands.
You have no idea what you’re talking about, blab stupid statements without knowing the facts.
Buffett wrote VERY LONG DATED derivatives on some stock indexes. What matters in short-term has no impact. So at the end of 15-20 years, if the 4 major market indexes are markedly lower, he has to pay up to $14B. $14B is if the indexes go to 0, so obviously that is not going to happen. He still has plenty of cold hard cash to pay out any claims.
If Buffett say loses 50%-70% in his stock holdings, the rest of the world will be down 70-90%. Is that a blowup? When you managing close to $100B and don’t go short.. Also when the market rebounds, 5-10-15 years from now, I guarantee it he will kill it and kill the market on the upswing. He works on a different time frame than you and me… a super long term investor.. and he can afford to wait it out.
“Berkshire sold a form of insurance to buyers who wanted protection from a drop in “four major equity indexes” over the next 15 to 20 years, according to a recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Instead of buying the individual shares, Buffett is wagering the indexes, three of which are outside the United States, will not fall and force Berkshire to pay a claim.”
“For Berkshire to lose the $14 billion that the company says is at risk, all four indexes covered by the puts would have to fall to zero, according to Gary Gastineau, managing director of ETF Consultants.Historic trends show that is unlikely to happen.”
“Five years ago, billionaire investor Warren Buffett called them a “time bomb” and “financial weapons of mass destruction” and directed the insurance arm of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc to exit the business.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1837154020080918
——————-
“There are many derivatives that do not use tons of leverage and pose little threat, and those are the ones Buffett is/was using.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/66742-2-noteworthy-points-from-warren-buffett-s-annual-shareholder-letter
——————-
And dems da facts !
.
I’ll bet you a lot more than a penny. LOL
A true time machine.