By now, I am sure you realize that stock picking abilities means nothing in this tape. It’s all about market timing. We’re convoy trading: everything up, everything down.
Rarely do you see divergence in this tape, barring some select health care names like Almost Family, Inc. [[AFAM]] and LHC Group, Inc. [[LHCG]] .
With the market down more than 800 points in two days, I want to take a poke at some upside etf’s here or average in on my BE Aerospace, Inc. [[BEAV]] experiment. At the present, I am 50% short, 25% long and 25% in cash. I might take 10% and buy some shit.
Into weakness, I like [[UYM]] , for an insane gamble, sub $18. Just know, it is an insane gamble. Also, taking down a little [[UYG]] , sub $8.5, may not be a horrid idea. However, it may be wretched.
For the day, “The Fly’s” holdings have been range bound, between +1.5% to +2.5%.
Much to my chagrin, horsed faced jackasses are buying into Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] , late in the day, trying to get some “earnings love.” I will tell you this: you (horsed faced jackass) will have nothing of the sort. The stock Gods shall strike down on those betting against me and foreclose on your bullshit house and motorcycle.
If you are late to the party, in terms of “hedging up,” it is too late. The market has already swan dived. Don’t get all “DEVILDOG-ish” or “CAP-like” and start sucking your own cocks down here, into the closing bell. Instead, hold your ground, like a fucking man, and nibble at some long side trades down here, like a small rat inside of a coffee can made from sugary oatmeal.
UPDATE: I bought 10,000 [[BEAV]] @ $11.34. And, I bought 10,000 [[UYG]] @ $8.42.
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“like a small rat inside of a coffee can made from sugary oatmeal”
Do they sell those at Walmart?
Fly – What size are you?
Will tomorrow be the pre-weekend bloodbath?
i am starting to like X
Hey DevilDog , Who are these 1%ers you keep referring to who are allegedly robbing 401ks ? Last I checked, billionaires like Adelson, Wynn, Abramovich, Deripaska have all lost 50-80% of their networth. If this crisis has shown as anything, its that the rich are getting poorer faster than the middle class. On a relative basis, the poor have lost less than anyone.
Well said FLY.
I’m glad i held my abysmal stocks FDO SYNA VASC COIN as they are holding their own. BEAV however the only stock you felt I could own is providing me with egregious paper losses. May your chest hair fall off should you be wrong on BEAV!
Hilarious stuff
Great imagery…you have certainly got this blogging shit down…Almost every post makes me laugh….
Man it’s like THE FLY and I have a mind-meld thing going. Every time I post something it pre-sages a FLY post lately.
Wretched is goooood!
Coney for the Mastah?
___
Fly, I think you meant “Repo” on the motorcycle. Good post, the bulls should stick their ground and wear their horn hats.
I can’t think anymore!
All I can do is eagerly await the next FLY post.
My life is like a little mouse nibbling inside a box made from stale fermunder cheese!
Man I missed the CAP post rally.. Oh well.
Could see a rally as we bears take some $$ off the table and cover
Sorry Fly, markets down BIGGER tomorrow. Odd no?
Game is rigged, “DO THEY SELL THOSE AT WALLMART?”…funny shit! ROFL.
Took a nibble on CME @ $265 – it can act like a gold mine or a hand grenade.
I have a feeling Devildog sucks his own cock no matter what the market does.
Stopped out on HK, sorry Fly. May re-enter later.
Erin Burnett likes the word “spurt”. Interesting….
70% of unmarried womens (sic) voted for the One – Obummer – odd, no?
The Anti-DevilDog trade for tomorrow……..go long…….
I will get more tail in the first 100 days than Bill Clinton did in 4 yrs
AAPL at 100 with todays low of 98 stop loss looks like a good trade………
Oh yeah, she likes the spurt and more…I can assure you.
The homo hammer will be inserted quite vigorously into the close
Dylan Ratigan, has indeed been the smartest host on CNBC since this fuckery started.
He still beats the drum of Fuckers bonusing themselves on 40 to 1 leverage, with all risk to shareholders, and liabilities transferred to the tax payer. He talks about a silly system that levers 40 to 1, and places it on top of toxic mortgages, then hedges the losses with secretive insurance products that no one seems to really understand. I like Dylan so much, that he can over to my house, and allow my dog to jack up on his leg.
I prefer to gnaw on stocks like a titmouse trapped in a shoe made of hummus. I feel that gives me a better edge.
I’m free of any charges – where’s the hos at?
Poof – your flaccid attempt at a market erection is gone!
Why is UYM an “insane gamble”? I picked a block up just over $18
Stocks are for degenerate asshats.
HK is kickin’ short little ass, damn fools!
Todd Harrison
01:49:55 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
I’m Gonna Knock You Out. Mama Said Knock You Out!
Does anyone else feel like they’ve been through a war? You would be hard pressed to find anyone who loves trading more than I do, but this is one brutal market environment (and I’ve managed risk as well as can be expected throughout this prickly period). Sellers to the left of us, layoffs to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you.
Some “digging deep” vibes as we tough it out and suck it up:
* I can’t shake the sense that a breach of crude $60 might be a precursor of a forthcoming break in the S&P.
* I want to buy the energy complex but I’ve yet to find any compelling set-ups. When in doubt, sit it out.
* Don’t call it a comeback!
* Is that an Igor style head and shoulders in Gold?
* The single biggest concern on my screen? The dollar, which continues to scream deflation.
* Social mood and risk appetites shape financial markets and they both seem to be going the wrong way.(How do they know where we’re going?)
* In the “you gotta keep perspective” department, the Margarita Maven arrived today for our family celebration of her 88th birthday. That’s a wonderful thing and I, for one, refuse to take it for granted as we ready for a weekend of the important stuff.
* Could the expectations for tomorrow’s Breakfast with Beeks be any lower?
* Before I scoot to yet another meeting, I’ll remind ye faithful that risk is decidedly two-sided. I continue to sense that a seismic readjustment is on the horizon and that can manifest in many ways at any time. Keep your head up and your eyes open, Minyans, for this is what we’ve trained for.
* As always, I hope this finds you well.
BEAV to .01;
FUCK UYM, stupid evil bitch ETF..
SMN on the other hand, what a beaut!
If we should close about where we are or worse, then it would mark the second straight 4%+ decline in the S&P 500, a feat only matched by Black Monday (October 19, 1987) since 1950. Using the DJIA and its 110-year history, there were 13 other precedents.
Similar to other crash-type studies we’ve looked at over the past month, this one led to good intermediate-term performance. The Dow was up a month later 12 of the 13 times, averaging +10.8%. The average maximum gain was a heady +15.9% during the month-long trades, more than triple the average maximum risk of -4.9%.
For the short-term, performance was more mixed but still quite positive. The index was up the next day 9 times, averaging +3.4%. By three days later, it was up 10 of the 13 times with an average of +6.4%.
No. Ticker Acc/Dist Price Perf. Rel. Strength Volatility Volume Final Score
1 DTO 5 5 5 5 4 4.8
2 DEE 5 5 5 5 3 4.6
3 AGA 5 5 4 5 3 4.35
4 SMN 5 5 2 5 3 3.85
5 IEF 5 4 5 1 1 3.75
6 IEI 5 4 5 1 1 3.75
7 PSQ 5 4 3 3 3 3.75
8 MBB 5 4 5 1 1 3.75
9 TLT 5 4 4 1 2 3.7
10 FXY 5 4 4 1 2 3.7
oops….I meant MY little short ass!
Good stuff Master Fly.
Started my positions in DBC, FXI, EWS and JNPR :/
I would also go long based on the past two days tape…8% in two days, thats over stretched;
On the other hand, who the hell would want to go long over the weekend?
I will take the conservative approach and cash out on my shorts…
wheres the MARGIN CALL GUY…wake his ass up and get him on this
I’m going to chicken out and stay in cash. No need to be a hero this environment.
BEAV to $1.87 during the BEAR market. Odd no? Write it DOWN.
You guys missed me?
yep please get in there and lower those prices for me another 5% would be outstanding
Glad I added to my shorts during the head fake rally. How about it Devil Dog lets hear a bark
Fly dinner’s ready…
I think the C lifeboat has a leak
This market is for gay fucking homos and beavers.
For market timing, i highly recommend using the Vix at “extreme levels”.
-gio-
Donny Says:
Dylan Ratigan
No doubt about it. he talks the talk.
Bob Pissani and the drunken camara have to go..
I sold SRS @ 141 on the DOW bounce. 21% in two days.
Dunka
Junior, do you have any idea how ridiculous you sound?
market timing,
the seat of my pants. Fuck the vix
1000 points in 2 fucking days? Come the fuck on. Obama your a shitbag.
All your flaccid dick rallies belong to us.
Wow, we lose 1,000 points and DevilDog is STILL out of the money…
Devil Dog on Oct 28:
SHORT more RTH @69.98. This is too good to be true.
SHORT more RTH @ 69.975555555….because I can.
Gonna SHORT 1000 RTH @ 71. Just legging in. Now 220% SHORT.
Got RTH @ 71. Thanks. BTW, I don’t need to watch my screen and sweat bullets.
SHORTING 2000 RTH @ 72.48.
Goddamit Fly your getting smoked bombed in beaver, I am hopping into the fire for a small bounce.
I bought some SSO at the close. I just couldn’t help my self..
Too much to fast, I’m taking a stab with some BGU
Okay boys and girls, that is some Tribal African Fuckery. Down 900+ in 2 days.
dont worry everyone, once Obama gives everyone their $500 check (tax credit), the market will go back up
Tribal African Whaaaaaat???
GUARDS!!??
SEEEEEEEEEEEEEIIIIIZZZZE HIIIIIIIMMM!!
_____________
nibbling at some SPWRA@ 25 @33.00 bought on the news of comrade obamas economic speech tommorrow
Donny Says:
Okay boys and girls, that is some Tribal African Fuckery. Down 900+ in 2 days.
November 6th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Donny that’s the reality we live in, control. Like it or not matters not for me.
Play the game, work that donkey!
I bagged a 21% return, two days. my best trade this year.
Remember folks the object is not to loose.
Donny, you’re white sheets are ready
EB, all mouth and no guts behind his bullshit calls. How surprising.