This is no longer a laughing matter, for our dear friends, just east of Africa.
I went negative on crude because of the pervasive downside pressures to price action. I don’t have exact numbers, but know this: many, many contracts are tied to $60 crude. Should oil dip below $60, I am afraid it will cascade lower, much to the chagrin of the Saudi Royale [sic] family.
Stocks like Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] will get the stuffing kicked out of them, if crude went sub $60.
Naturally, because we’re American idiots, we will stop exploration and get all happy and shit about gasoline in the low 2’s again. Howsoever, once the world economies come back online, we will be eating tar sands, as if they were pop tarts. Oil will super gap to $500 5 million dollars per barrel, due to an extreme lack of supply, estimated around 9% per annum—if we stop looking for damn stuff.
So, if I were you, thank God I am not, I would be shorting Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] and buying [[DUG]] , as if a clown was chasing after me with a pocket full of date rape drugs.
As an aside, the homos from [[M]] are quite chipper this morning. If any of you believe in America, you must own Macy’s, sub $12. Nevermind the perfume section or the flamboyantly gay cashiers: the stock is cheap.
Speaking of cheap: anyone interested in a little BE Aerospace, Inc. [[BEAV]] this morning?
I didn’t think so.
So, let’s wrap this up:
Oil: bad
[[M]] : gay, but cheap.
[[REW]] , [[FXP]] , [[DUG]] , [[SDS]] : good places to put your money.
Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] : die.
CLARIFICATION: For the retard variety who reads this blog, the $500 target on crude, is in fact, not a target at all. I wrote it to emphasize a point, which very few of you are capable of understanding.
Okay, get back to your hummers and oversized furnaces.
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You still running around with BEAV(is) and butthead, Fly or did you sell it already. I told you that looked like a very gay stock. That fucking thing was east village gay, dude.
Still in it. I must be long something. BEAV is cheap.
Fly, what are you doing with your EEV hedge, EEM is hitting a price floor
Direxion ETFs out!
Just bought a block of TZA and BGZ.
Get these 3x iETFs while they are HOT!
Fly:
Oil will super gap to $500 per barrel, due to an extreme lack of supply, which is estimated can be as much as 9% per annum—if we stop looking for damn stuff.
Stop acting like a peak oiler. It’s so unbecoming of you and really really gay. that’s fucking homo talk, Fly.
The oil price is dropping because there is an oversupply. How the fuck do you get a lack of supply of 9& p.a?
Oil is ultimately elastic ( responsive to price for all you economic illiterates out there).
There is no fucking undersupply of 9%. That’s just twaddle. At a certain level we will just see demand destruction.
Stop misleading the retards fly.
Fly…if I’m not mistaken Karen Finerman (Fast Money) said yesterday she was SHORT RIG…LONG DUG ! fwiw
Holding EEV. Waiting for it to bust loose of the sub $100 prison it finds itself in.
$50-$55 as a low is my guess….
J:
If you knew what you were talking about I would agree.
Unfortunately for you, you are an idiot.
You are misreading what I wrote. Without me having to spoon feed everything, why don’t you figure out what would happen if exploration companies and rig makers went bust.
Then figure out what might happen to the price of oil, if world gdp growth started growing again, at a time when there is no new supply online, just muddy/rusted rigs.
The fucking energy stocks are gonna get crushed. The fucking delusional gap between crude prices, and these energy co’s will be filled soon. DUG to the fucking moon!
Hey! Guess what?!
CBL fucking is kicking my ass!
Donny:
Correct.
I was bullish on energy while we were in crash mode. However, now that crash mode is gone and oil continues lower, one must prepare for mayhem in the space.
Macy’s hires the elderly W-Mart greeters here in KC…sonny can I interest you in some Tommy Bahamma[sic]. Strolled thru there yesterday, $115 for a LaCoste[sic] polo shirt…uh huh….Off to the Costco Bins.
Fly/Howard 2012
Oil $500 a barrel. Thats last months bullshit. next you are going to say gold at $4000 an ounce. There will be wars if that happens and natgas will rule. The truth is it is a Bear market and you are showing your emotions just like calling a bottom like Cramer. Get a fucking grip on your large balls. I have faith in the FLY winning but this is starting to get funky.
ooops…correction !
Finerman (yesterday) said she was LONG RIG…SHORT OIH !
Sorry !
Do you idiots know how to read?
Just curious?
The $500 target was tongue in cheek.
I AM SAYING OIL IS GOING LOWER. DON’T YOU FUCKING FAGGOTS UNDERSTAND ENGLISH AND HOW THOUGHTS ARE CONSTRUCTED INTO SENTENCES?
But it wouldn’t fucking go to $500 barrel in real 2008 dollars. that’s retarded talk. That would be like 8 times the current price at the pump in todays dollars.. Economic activity would fall off the cliff before that happened.
Now look what you’ve done? What’s your current readership now: 100,000 idiots and retards a day? You’re going to mislead these fools into thinking that could happen. It can’t.
Anyways oil could temporarily go lower but it won’t go to a level where it’s produced below cost for any great length of time. the rigs will be mothballed and they will still be operational.
“as if a clown was chasing after me with a pocket full of date rape drugs.”
That’s some funny shit.
Sorry fly, I couldn’t hear you in lower case.
You’re coming through loud and clear now.
STFU!!!!!!!!!!
You people are nitpickers.
Just stick a potato in your mouth, short some HK into earnings and go for a walk.
or so the 500 bucks was tongue in throat. Okay then. put a fucking smiley face on that stuff so we know you’re kidding next willya.
You friggen wasted my time with this crap now.
How the fuck do i know you’re kidding, as you’ve said some silly things before….. (no not always so don’t get angrified, you hot head)
The level of reading comprehension some of you exhibit is downright frightening.
Irony and sarcasm must be hard to catch when you are reading this site upside down.
Anyone caught long oil will be lopped into murder holes.
Short the casinos right to zero..stevie cant save WYNN this time
alf- finnerman is a fucking retard…she was also long WAMU at 6!
J,
You, sir, are the retard.
Fuck off, you dirty, savage literalist.
Contractor
I know what he’s saying as I have been saying that for a while.
commods are long time bullish because;
as the price goes…. down chokes off exploration. the small firms can’t get financing and the supply channel gets tighter when there’s economic growth.
My argument was that the fly thought the uptick would carry it up to 500 bucks a barrel. that’s what i thought was retarded.
Fook:
or lobbed.
The Fly Speaks the truth. Oil in the 40’s anyone? Heck, it could go as low as $20.
50-85% decline from the peak seems reasonable for any bubble. But BRIC was the primary reason for this boom, and now BRIC died, and China’s going green.
If you’re a river boat gambler, replace DUG and go with ERY when you get the chance.
tripppppppple down
UPDATE: I changed my 2020 price target for oil to 5 million per barrel.
Discuss.
Catapulted.
Old Brit:
Go get your fucking teeth fixed up, you limey fuck. Spend the bucks and fix those yellowing disgusting things in your mouth.
Die Hawk Die
Lots of regative sentirent on rere right now I go rong 40-1 reverage and rip your races off rocksuckers.
What is your signal to cover or extent that short (eev)
Boomer – I just bought some CBL at $6.74. Maybe a lillt early but I missed the last move up.
The Fly is better than you; accept it and he will bestow his glory upon your portfolio.
Fly, what happened to market goes higher till turkey day? Do you think that will still happen, or are we starting the holiday decline early?
and buying (DUG: 39.56 +6.06%) , as if a clown was chasing after me with a pocket full of date rape drugs.
LMAO
FWIW I would not be short oil here. People who want to short oil here to sub $50 are the same fools who wanted to buy oil at $147 because $200 was a sure thing.
HK getting dicey here ahead of their bullshit numbers.
“UPDATE: I changed my 2020 price target for oil to 5 million per barrel.
Discuss.”
HAHAHA Thanks for my morning laugh Fly, I needed that. Although you do have my sympathies in trying to deal with readers that don’t understand sarcasm.
Meredith whitney is saying the banks are going down big time.
Any of you guys know she’s married to a professional wrestler?
Charlie:
I called an audible.
I do it all the time.
I’m sort of like Cramer, only 100x crazier, but 100x smarter.
That 5 million better be inflation adjusted, pal.
Hey, we may still rally into Turkey Day. This may be a pit stop.
Developing…
Where is DEVILDOG these days? He needs to get in here and go 185% on some of these 3x ETFs, preferably in the wrong direction.
Although you do have my sympathies in trying to deal with readers that don’t understand sarcasm.
It wasn’t sarcasm, you twit, boca. it was an exaggeration made in jest… irony perhaps. Sarcasm is something different. What did you score in your SAT verbal by the way? Not good, huh?
definition :
sarcasm : witty language used to convey insults or scorn.
Saying oil goes to 500 bucks was not scornful nor insulting.
Fly;
Did you say you spoke in forked tongue? Just kidding. I’m not Pro Trader anymore. I’m just a Rookie. WTF give me a brake.
$500? I thought he said $5 million a barrel……I just went long the Jan 2010 $4,500,000 Calls on USO in size. Thanks FLY!
Fly at what point would you cover HK? Its rolling over from a chart chompers perspective? 13ish looks prime.
Stop arguing you emos.
Don’t you see HK dying here?
I am besides myself with laughter.
Gap:
It was one of the worst ranked stocks in PPT history, albeit that history is one month.
However, they report earnings tonight. Nothing good can come, in my opinion.
Fly-
RE: Macy’s. With same-store sales falling monthly and a tough holiday season coming up, why do you expect M to rise?
jig…I was just posting her (Finerman’s) position (on oil)…since it seemed somewhat pertinent to the thread topic.
Wasn’t meant to be an endorsment !
PPT data on HK
Debt/Equity 4
PEG Ratio 1
Price/Book 5
Price/Sales 2
Profit Margin 1
Sub Rosa 0
Final Score 2.35
PPT Recommendation: Sell
Accumulation Distribution 1
Price Performance 1
Relative Strength 1
Volatility 2
Volume 1
Sub Rosa -0.1
Final Score 0.95
PPT Recommendation: Strong Sell
1.58
Strong Sell
Yo:
Macy’s is gay man cheap, whatever that means.
What is old Jimmy “bowtie” Rogers doing these days about the bust in commodities?
“Oil .. could go as low as $20 .. and China’s going green.”
dude, are you hitting the chronic, or what? LMAO!
HK chart looks like a flaccid donkey schlong this morning.
CISCO;s CFO Frank Caldoroni is a fucking HOMO.
big hairy balls slap his chin. Bwhahahahaha
Thanks Fly I am holding my line with it but chasing it down with my wide stop.
I think we re-test lows now. All I need now is for Jake to call me an idiot and this call will again be proven correct (3rd in a row).
China is NOT going green, by the way.
Fly good call HK getting date raped
Hope you assholes got rid of NOV
Rimm getting pounded also. My shorts are starting to pay off. High five Devil Dog
DEVILDOG will be present and most vociferous just before the market turns again…on a dime.
To his credit…he is actually an excellent contrarian indicator.
DEVIL DOG IS COMING> HIDE THE KIDS AND LOCK THE DOORS.
Look at Crude! Approaching $60 very quickly.
The entire energy complex is gonna get fucking hammered!
DUG, DUG, and more DUG.
Blew out of hedges again until end of day.
Devildog counter trend rally pending…
Buy DUG on all dips … and hold it until 60.
“Naturally, because we’re American idiots, we will stop exploration and get all happy and shit about gasoline in the low 2’s again.”
Great foreshadowing, maybe that’s why oil platform builders like MDR is getting kicked in the teeth, besides it’s weak earnings on higher costs. Less exploration, less need for platforms and also less need for steel.
Got more CBL here at $6.87. I am “legging in” in a fashion similar to that of Captain Quint at the end of Spielberg’s masterpiece, Jaws.
Fly, I hope you have regrown a bushy set of moustaches in the manner of Michael Imperioli’s character in “Life on Mars,” otherwise, oil will skip your lower nasal area and go straight to punching off your eyebrows, which is — reportedly — twice as painful.
And even worse if you already have “Michael Imperioli” -type bushy eyebrows.
______________
EB — you are an idiot, but not because of your market calls.
This last market call is wrong, however.
_______
Adding to my BGZ and TZA pile.
idiot that i am, shorting AMZN here
I loaded on CBL this morn as well. I call bullshit on Armageddon!
Fly says “we’re out of crash mode”. So wrong. Odd no?
The retarded hound returns!
I wanna buy the market but I’m waiting for the dog to make an appearance to call the bottom by telling us the market is heading to zero.
Actually, I said this, boy:
Watch Those Murder Holes
by The Fly on November 5th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
We’re back into crash mode. The Obama rally is over and The PPT is spitting out a strong sell rating on market technicals.
thanks Dog
I’m just about to out in an order to buy some Beav(is) and butthead here.
Please say it goes lower.
News Flash: Obama has invented a machine that makes oil out of dirt. The machine costs $1. Oil goes to a penny a barrel.
Strange that one would want to bail on oil. When the economy rebounds in late ’09, oil makes new highs. At the current $60, there’s maybe $20 downside and $80+ upside. Seems like one would want to be long, no?
Eye No
If you can get it at $50 it would be a decent bet. But why buy here and wait for 12 months? You’re a little early.
Eye no makes good sense. Who will heed it?
________
Back to my egregious meeting…
_______
Just bought some doll cad for a move back to 1.25 ish.
stop at 1.450.
they’re numbers were awful.
RTI continues to pluck my eyebrows off, one by one.
I will ignore the piercing pain, like an asstard rohypnolled by the tag team of Bozo and Crusty.
________
@80/20 – Since Citi finally downgraded AMZN today, its a greenlight back to $70
“Naturally, because we’re American idiots, we will stop exploration and get all happy and shit about gasoline in the low 2’s again.”
$1.91/gallon here in Woodshedder’s hometown
Although I think market goes lower, I will stay 100% cash as I don’t press when SP500 is 7% off highs in less than a day.
Unfortunately for those that a long, Jake calling me an idiot solidifies the fate that market will re-test lows as it did a number of times before.
Gummint gonna pay ma mo’gage!
mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/11/04/no-more-mortgage-payments-soon-get-ready-to-default/
DMG, where are you?
Fly, you said on this thread that we are out of crash mode. Read your own posts. Gotta go count my BIG gains as they are accumulating at a very fast pace. Bye-bye. BTW, new market lows this month.
does anyone believe FXP will test its highs of a few weeks ago? or since its 2008 should we be taking profits?
I don’t like being on the same side as Devildog for some reason. It doesn’t feel right.
Sheets at W. Broad St/Glenside
We’re all DevilDogs now.
Correct.
Let us rejoice in the fact that we are all DevilDogs now.
I rather be a Red Raider. Man that game was awesome last Saturday.
this just in 5 hours ago: hk reports “earnings” of .19 missing by .01
I guess I better order a Viper….but what color?
*cough* Tootsie Roll Trader *cough*
And that wife too… what size was she again?
My $187,462.75 ruler just broke.
Fuck me.
“…clown was chasing after me with a pocket full of date rape drugs…”
Damn you and your brilliant, eloquent prose!
After yesterday’s $373,000 hot dog I’m over this shit man!
What are the issues with CBL that it’s got such a manly yield?
’09 debt maturities look manageable. I’m not sure what “normal” cccupancy rates are, but 90%+ don’t seem out of whack to this novice.
Is there new supply coming online soon in its markets that people fear may not be absorbed without rent reductions? Do they have a high concentration of financially weak tenants (i.e., Circuit City, Linens & Things, etc)?
Just looking for a headstart on my homework. Thanks.
Market looks UGLY.
Ah DevilDog is back posting again….a great contrarian indicator……………
44DD? I wonder if Karen Tso has accepted mi invitation to be my honorary Mrs. DevilDog. Riding around in a Viper with Karen Tso just doesn’t compare with riding around with her on the back of a horse naked after society collapses, though.
I have to be the worst short seller in the world. I must be the only one today to have lost money shorting LVS. Idiot.
Thankfully, I’m a better long trader than I am a bad short seller.
Fly, you said on this thread that we are out of crash mode. Read your own posts. Gotta go count my BIG gains as they are accumulating at a very fast pace.
Dog the market has gone up since the lows. You’re not fucking up, your down, fucker. You told us that you were running 185% leveraged. In short you’re fucked (pun intended)
Donnymon – go DTO not DUG – Dig?
34Ds and they are real. Took the Viper in yesterday and installed some new billet aluminum pulleys and brackets in the beast. Got about $120K in her now. Built to bullet proof specs. Planning on a long cruise this Saturday as the weather in the DFW area now is perfect. Taking her to Texas Motor-Sport Ranch on Sunday for some road course track laps.
Steph:
LVS at it’s lows according to my quoteomatic – you covered it too early?
All the cool people in Dallas drive Bentleys. Vipers are all engine no class.
Anyone else gonna hop on the BGZ-TZA train with me? My solar long, followed by solar short ride last week played out beautifully. This looks like another ticket to disgusting gains in the next couple of days. CHOO CHOO!
Bullett proof? It’s hard keeping up with the DevilDogs these days. Karen Tso doesn’t have 34D’s but that’s ok.
Yeah…I covered as it started ticking up. I’ve been squeezed so many times that I have no patience. I’m a horrible short seller.
Hey Devil Dog – Remember paint side up, and keep it off of the fence. Have fun!
Dr. I, Bentleys drive straight. It takes some skill to drive a ride that wants to get sideways and out from under your ass.
It takes conviction to hold when a shorts going against you, but it’s really no different than holding a long through a dip, just more startling at times.
Paradigm Shift, i believe AMZN is headed lower, betting in breaches 40 in a wave of panic (tide coming in fast)
stopped in for lunch looks like my SKF sold !!!banked a little coin thanks Fly ..even if you didnt say sell
Yogi, will do!