Foreign markets cratering. Forex markets in flux. Commercial paper in disarray.
Glory awaits America, soon.
Get your short game on tomorrow, and fast.
UPDATE: Just in case you were wondering, “what the fuck is working in this market?,” BEHOLD: “The PPT‘s” top rated stocks, by technicals only. Fuck the fundies, for now. Pardon if takeovers are included. I did not bother to comb over them.
| Life Partners Holdings, Inc. [[LPHI]] | 4.65 |
| [[ENSG]] | 4.25 |
| [[DEE]] | 4.1 |
| Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. [[QCOR]] | 3.95 |
| [[DTO]] | 3.93333 |
| [[BOM]] | 3.93333 |
| TreeHouse Foods Inc. [[THS]] | 3.9 |
| [[PVI]] | 3.9 |
| Allegiant Travel Company [[ALGT]] | 3.85 |
| Spartan Stores, Inc. [[SPTN]] | 3.85 |
| [[DZZ]] | 3.85 |
| [[ADZ]] | 3.85 |
| [[DDP]] | 3.85 |
| [[AGA]] | 3.85 |
| IKON Office Solutions, Inc. [[IKN]] | 3.8 |
| PetMed Express, Inc. [[PETS]] | 3.8 |
| Captaris, Inc. [[CAPA]] | 3.75 |
| UST Inc. [[UST]] | 3.75 |
| [[DRR]] | 3.75 |
| [[FXY]] | 3.75 |
| [[IEF]] | 3.75 |
| [[IEI]] | 3.75 |
I’m ready.
Possibly a small up to S&P 912 to suck in some more cows and then an all day cascade down into the close at the low of the day is my scenario…before it happens.
Futures up. Asia off the opening lows. This has nothing to do with fundamentals, which is why we will be up tomorrow. Every intuition you have should be a counter-indicator.
Could also have a gap down with the same all day scenario. Either way I win. Odd no?
Hey small, curious what fundamentals your looking at. Please don’t tell me it’s valuations.
The end of the world is upon us.
Devil Dog will be the richest dead guy. How grande.
sorry, you’re
I like going out rich. Should have been dead a long time ago anyway.
Satan Hound … give it a fucking break you FUCKTARD! You sound to me like someone who has an axe to grind … possibly someone who has lost egregious sums of coin in the past. Okay motherfucker, you are now right. Big fucking deal! You have gone on and on, and even I’m sick and tired of your bullshit motherfucker. Go to bed — NOW!
Yen at 97.25. A lot of scared Japanese.
Donny, wrong again. YOU sound like someone that bought too much DIG and has DUG a hole to fall in tomorrow. Don’t worry it’s only money.
BTW, oil to $60 minimum.
You better start showing The Fly some God Damned respect!
Anybody on this board buying this market tomorrow from the open, must be immediately hospitalized for cerebral death. Fucking idiots. We are breaking 8,000 in the next week — write it down on your foreheads if you must.
I do respect the Fly. Took a lot of guts to change his direction today and position himself to capitalize on the crash coming up. Smart guy. As far as your concerned, I disagree with your DIG call as I stated earlier today. OPEC meeting is not going to make oil go up. Just like it didn’t work for the Ike play. Odd no?
PHILLIES win!
wake & bake with POT earnings.
YEN @ $96.91…Yikes!
Futs not moving.
Satan Hound … Come on … YOU – ARE = You’re! If you can replace “your” with YOU ARE, then it’s you’re. Get it? Odd no?
We’ll see how my DIG pic works tomorrow.
Devil gets a pass.
Marine in Nam.
Enough said.
_____
LPHI is fucked – the LS market has gone to hell in the past 30 days.
Dollar’s been up a lot, needed to sell off.
____
I am in disagreement with “the Fly.”
_____
pn Says:
Foreign funds are chomping at the bit to invest in the US but are waiting until after the election as to not upset the Obama apple cart. It’s no secret that every country in the world except one wants Obama to win. The volatility these past few weeks is a result of the strong trying to shake out the remaining weak hands before markets go up.
I am in agreement with this statement. I predict a 1000 point rally the week Obama wins the Presidency. Most people around the world as well as most people here want him to win.
this one’s for Donny…Keep on rockin in the free world…
Global crisis aside, commodities will roar again, and soon, says Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings.
“We have had eight or nine periods of forced liquidation over the past 100 to 150 years wherein everything was liquidated without regard to fundamentals. This is such a period,” Rogers told the Web site Commodity Online.
A slowdown in China and economic malaise in the United States and Europe have hit commodity prices short term, Roger says, but nothing about the basics of supply and demand have changed.
“Historically, the things which have come out best on the other side are things where the fundamental have been unimpaired. Commodities are the only thing I know with unimpaired fundamentals,” Rogers said.
Speaking on CNBC, Rogers built on the forced liquidation theme, saying he was heavy in cash and buying currencies, including yen and Swiss francs, as well as more agricultural commodities.
“There’s a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They’re selling everything in sight,” Rogers said.
“In a period like this, the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things where the fundamentals have not been impaired.”
One theory among economists is that commodity prices are still at the beginning of a steep fall as the credit squeeze takes the world economy into a deep recession.
As usual, it’s all about time horizon.
“When you have a seven-year bull run, you are going to have more than a four-month correction, and we are just beginning our fourth month,” Richard Feltes, senior vice president and director of commodity research at MF Global Research, told the International Herald Tribune.
“We have got more deflation coming in the housing sector, in capital assets, and it’s going to continue in commodities as well.”
True enough, but only if demand stalls in the emerging capitalist economies of Asia. China’s growth has slowed, but only to 9 percent, still an amazing rate of expansion.
“The underlying fundamentals of strong demand for energy, food, and industrial commodities will come back,” Michael Lewis, global head of commodities research for Deutsche Bank, told the IHT.
Suprised the PPT doesn’t have any airline stocks. They have been TAKING OFF!
Devil,
Oil to $60? Are you fucking kidding me? More like, oil to between $15 and $40. That’ll be the ultimate fuck-you-you’re-dead black swan. The fact is China has been growing continuously at a fast clip for 30 years now (I’m very skeptical of trends that last that long). The duration of the trend has ushured in a wave of complacency from analysts. Everyone expects that shit to continue to infinity. To be sure, China is still growing at 9% — but, do not lose sight of the fact that GDP was growing in the mid 12’s five quarters ago. Wait til they start spooking the markets with 2-3% growth (or even go negative) and shit starts hitting the fan.
The place has been overbuilt and loan issuance has been careless in recent years. Besides, China’s largest export market (America) is going into a Depression.
Technically, oil went parabolic and broke. From experience, parabolas usually retrace between 75% to 90% (peak to trough). In sum, don’t waste your time wth oil (unless you’re playing quick countertrend rallies). It’s going much, much lower. Then, it will spend years in the doldrums as is the case with the pricing of every parabolically deflated asset class in history.
Not to say that oil won’t explode again in 10-15-20 years, but the current move is still unwinding to the downside and moneyflow will be heavily negative for quite some time.
Buy the banks, asshats.
UAUA has a 3.2 technical ranking.
Fly, the only thing that makes sense to me in that long list is FXY.
How far is the credit crunch reaching?…
PORTLAND, Maine – The price of Maine lobster, which accounts for 80 percent of the U.S. catch, is tanking.
The primary factor, a drop-off in demand by penny-pinching diners, has been in place since summer. But a secondary problem recently surfaced: the global banking crisis left Canadian processors short on credit, trapping Maine lobstermen and dealers with too much supply.
While bargains abound for lobster lovers throughout the Northeast, there’s growing angst in New England fishing communities. One small village held a lobster bake on the town pier to unload excess lobsters and help out the local fishing fleet.
“This is as devastating to the state of Maine as Hurricane Katrina washing away all the boats and blowing down all the wharves,” said Dana Rice, a lobster dealer from Gouldsboro who’s witnessing the industry’s biggest struggle in his 30-plus years in the business.
As always, the problem boils down to supply and demand. But these days it’s a bit more complicated than usual.
The recent crisis in the global financial system resulted in lines of credit being cut off to several lobster processors, including some in Canada who have relied on Icelandic banks that have failed, according to John Norton, president and chief executive of Cozy Harbor Seafood Inc., a seafood processor in Portland.
More than half of Maine’s lobster harvest is typically shipped to Canadian processors. But this year is hardly typical.
Jim Wilson, a professor of marine science and economics at the University of Maine, is astounded how the Maine lobster industry is being slammed indirectly by the mortgage crisis, Wall Street derivatives and bank failures in Iceland.
“It’s rather amazing the interconnectedness that has built up in the economy,” Wilson said.
I ran into the Fly this afternoon, here’s some footage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdFM0rIsBKo&feature=related
CAP, what the fuck is that you’re rambling on about? A 1,000 point ‘rally’ in this market is just another day in the market. Would anyone here really be surprised if we had a 1,000 point rally at this point?
The volatility that you’re talking about isn’t the strong Vs the weak. The fact that you think so, tells me to take a pause and understand that I am dealing with a child. Or a retard.
Lastly, the banking system is broken. The economy is broken. We are in a recession, that may or may not become a depression if it isn’t handeled correctly.
A new face may give us a bounce, but it ain’t going to give us a bull.
Hitler gets a margin call
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVB-SSkkLnY
The whole system is built upon confidence. When this shit is over – there will be none. Then go ALL IN. Not now.
I just realized that the Fly just may have published his first technical analysis post.
Okay Boomer … that is some ultra FUNNY shit.
UAUA tripled since that crazy bankruptcy story. But they are all trading strong. I think they were the first group to go under last year.
I agree they don’t have Fundamentals.
i think rogers is:
1) correct
2) early
3) scared
4) all the above
The PPT is buying futes to get some air under them before unemployment claims over 500K are announced tomorrow morning along with an upward revision for the prior week. paulson stinks and thinks we’re dumb. hank is the dummy.
I should have listened to Dennis Gartman
lol@Hitler
DevilDog, I’m watching those futes. Crazy, huh? You chartin’ it in real time? Volume is nil…
Futures moving up. Asian markets coming well off the lows.
Boomer,
That’s classic! I hadnt seen the margin call vid –loved it! I suppose you’ve seen the Hitler Aurelian Bid reaction? Greatest vid ever if you’re familiar with all the chicaneries behind the Kinross takeover.
-Phil
80/20,
I believe you’re ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
Hitler’s xbox live version is good too, if you’re not too old…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkDxF2kn1I&feature=related
i think rogers is:
1) correct
2) early
3) scared
4) all the above
5) WRONG!
So far the Bow Tied motherfucker has been absolutely wrong. It;;;s’ almost my nnite0nite, fuckers. Ans as you can tell, ive had way toooo mu=ch yo drink.
Phil from Brazil, I totally agree with you. $60 oil is the minimum down for this move to an intermediate bottom. Maybe $55. I fully support a GREATER GREAT DEPRESSION for at least a decade.
That Hitler margin call is some funny shit. I nearly cried.
Wood, Yeah I’m tracking them real time by watching CNBC. Do you have a link to real time tracking?
Dow futures up 185 now.
DDog, I use tradestation. I have the S&P and Nasdaq, but not the Dow. Right now at 1:14, S&P at 1.5%. Volume on most of the spikes has been much less than 1000 contracts.
Nikkei was down 650, bouncing back to down only 260
Fly
My god this has become a bear pit.
Am I the only dude that thinks the market goes up today?
Hey small fry, you never answered my question concerning the fundamentals you’re looking at that support higher stock prices. Enlighten me please. I really want to know what I’m missing.
Hitler’s other play, his bank shorts, and what follows…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfvIstgOugc
the second video is more up to date
Thanks WOOD.
Hey small fry, you never answered my question concerning the fundamentals you’re looking at that support higher stock prices. Enlighten me please.
40% move down from the highs.
Fed lowering rates and pushing money ou of the system like crazy
Some of the myths being exploded such interbank lending and commercial lending grinding to a halt.
The absolute fear of the public.
Almost everyone here is short negative.
A great deal of discounting for the slowdown has gone on.
This is knee jerk reactive shit that doesn’t bear any reality to the facts.
Those Hitler videos – haven’t laughed like that in awhile. funny stuff.
Charlie
Pore gold my son. Very funny. If you like soccer, there is a wayyyyy funny one of that same clip of Tottenham losing to Arsenal. I watch it all the time.
Pure gold I mean. Zig Hail!
Am I the only dude that thinks the market goes up today?
No. I find it strange that everyone is acting like the market closed on the low of the day and we are obviously going to crater in the morning. The last action in the market before it closed was a 175 point rally.
That is not pre-crash action.
“The core rate?? What the hell has the core rate got to do with me? Do you know how much a new BMW costs? The dealership doesn’t give a damn what the core rate is!!”
j, thanks now I know why the market has not bottomed yet. Too many bulls that know the facts.
lol gwar, the Spurs-Arse one is hilarious.
“I might as well go support Chelsea!”
“Don’t worry, he’s not that desperate.”
“Do you fuckers have any idea how much a new BMW cost?”
I’m fucking dieing here. Too fucking much!
I also liked the one about Chelsea losing the champs league final (despite it bringing back the bad memories):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz3yLkHHpKs
Somebody has had too much Red Bull, I’d say.
Remember to let the keyboard cool now and then.
Fly, in light of Hitler’s popularity in this thread, I think it would be prudent to share the comic wealth with all of IBC if you posted the following instead of one of your ghetto videos for a change:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfvIstgOugc
That was the worst day ever, why did JT have to slip!
Dog:
I don’t own any stocks for the present. I watch the Euro/yen to help me decide when to trade stocks.
But I’m actually thinking the market goes up from here. It’s not as bad as you suggest. there is a great deal of selling going on because of fear and largish redemptions.
I am perfectly at ease with myself.
In fact I bought a little Aussie down here yesterday. I’ve had quite profitable week actually.
I am just noting that the levels of bearishness and bullishness at this site seems to explode after the move has happened.
I am about to buy the index here and looking to buy a few stocks in the US tonight.
gwar: heartbreaking. Saw the slip, yet the ball initially still appeared to go in. Went from pure extacy to utter dismay in 2 seconds. Took the rest of the day off and got piss drunk.
From OEW: Huge Rally Soon
“Since the intraday low is at SPX 840, and the lowest weekly close is at 899.20, one or both of these levels is likely to be exceeded before a significant uptrend can get underway. For now, the short term 1-2-3 down from the recent high at SPX 1044 appears mostly likely. The important support pivots to observe are at SPX 912, 848, 789, and 768 the 2002 low. Should the market trade down to the 848 pivot, and bounce off that level for a number of days, it could form a diagonal triangle 5th wave. Should the market break that support pivot and trade to the lower 789 pivot, it could complete the 5th wave there. Near this pivot there are numerous short term, medium term and long term fibonacci relationships. Review the SPX hourly and daily charts. At some point in the not too distant future, the market should experience a 38.2% to 50% retracement of the entire bear market thus far. Should it launch from the 789 pivot, the likely target is the pivot at SPX 1179. In each of the five historical crashes, after the market finally settled at a low, it either made new highs or retraced 50% of the entire decline. Something to look forward to in the not too distant future.”
Employee8
I have never seen so much fear as I have seen on this site today. It’s extraordinary. May not mean the market doesn’t go down, but I sure aren’t following it.
j, I find it interesting that you think things aren’t that bad. I look forward to riding the 50% retracement after the lower low this month. Then a return to reality and much lower lows next year as people like you finally get it. One thing I’ve learned is to factor into my trading what I call the “SSF” SHEEPEOPLE STUPID FACTOR. My formula is that I take what I think as the stupidest anyone can get then factor it by 10 to get why the market can actually go the wrong way. Works great.
At this point (SPX 897) if OEW is correct, we only have 50 to 100 points left on the down side (we were down 60 today) which could be seen in a day or two …. the potential upside from there is 400 points so its time to do as Fly originally suggested and AD is doing now …. nibble into positions here for the impending rally.
TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc., (GS:Goldman Sachs Group, Inc
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 115.06-6.29-5.18%
4:00pm 10/22/2008
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Financials
Sponsored by:
GS 115.06, -6.29, -5.2%) the New York investment bank, is readying a job cut of 10%, or 3,250 workers, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal. The paper reported that the move reflects weakness in investment banking and trading, even as Goldman avoided the mistakes that ruined Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Last month, Goldman’s chief financial officer, David Viniar, had said he expected the firm’s work force to remain steady or rise through year’s end, the paper wrote. But the credit crisis worsened and forced the cuts, the Journal reported.
Gee the GS CFO is an idiot. What a surprise. I hope all GS criminals lose their jobs. BTW, paulson stinks.
Dog:
Ok you’re suggesting that the market falls the market falls what 75% from it’s highs in the short term. Is that right?
To be perfectly honest unlike you I have a great respect for the market and the participants. Trouble starts when you start thinking you’re the smartest guy in the room.
j, I find it interesting that you think things aren’t that bad.
Well actually I didn’t say that. I just don’ think things are as bad as you’re trying to make out. They aren’t. Simple fact.
ya feel it?
j, they are worse. BTW, I don’t expect a 75% fall here. I said a lower low. I do expect an 87% fall from the long term trend-line going back to 1801 over the next 10 years. I really have to say that you are a perfect example of the SSF with your not that bad bullshit. It never ceases to amaze me how clueless people are.
Boom,
“The Bunker” was a good movie. Forgot all about that scene. Strangely enough, I think the broker that called bullshit on Adolph went on to run Goldman thru the late Nineties.
Ironic, no?
Dog:
No Dog , I am not a perfect example of anything you wanna characterize. I simply disagree with your end of times view.
You’re suggesting an enormous deflationary pull on asset prices across the board. The Feds activities are suggesting the opposite.
Are times tough? Sure they are, but it hardly means what you’re suggesting.
j, where do you live? You actually believe that the private central banks that created the problem in the first place are going to fix it with more debt created out of thin air? SSF. I rest my case.
No, I don’t believe they solve the ” problems” . What they do is eventually fuck the debtor as they inflate away the value of the debt. So the genesis of the next boom and crash is created with the way they are presently dealing with the problem.
I live in Australia. I lived in the US for 15 years and then left , or was fired according to Anton. Ants has been channeling my former employers.
your suggestion of an 87% fall is quite frankly bullshit. Growth, GDP growth will be under potential for about 7 years and then it’s off to the races again.
No your continuing growth on endless debt is bullshit. Believe what you want as I need you to buy the stuff I sell short anyway over the next ten years. However, your living in Xanadu will do you in well before that. BTW, BHP stock did great down there today. Must be all that growth going forward being factored in right?
This site has a mob mentality feel about it now. Almost lunatic fringe.
I think Devildog is actually Howard Ruff – A man who has been calling for the imminent return to the stone age since the early 70’s.
Europe in the red. Futes falling.
Flintstones…meet the Flintstones…
Look dog, I don’t mid discussing stuff with you but there is really no point as you’re almost religiously tied to your views. There’s no point in telling me you think I’m wrong without articulating why. When other people do that you attempt to pass this off as people who don’t understand. That’s very cultist behavior.
There is no market in a communist country. Shit goes to zero.
China GDP 9% V.s. a negative number in the capitalist world equals infinity…by a lot.
Major currency shift underway.
POTash rips the head off earnings estimates but say 08 earnings will come in at the lower end of estimates btw $12-13.
Boomer, thanks for the Hitler vids. Priceless stuff.
This site is gettting very gay. Its at an ll time low for the quality of the blog.
Its a sad time bankcoin.
Cry baby cry. Make your Momma sad.
A ripping Potash is not good for farming!
Fly,
Did you not get the memo? You capitulated yesterday…today you go long, not short.
MM
Futes going red.
DEVILDOG…its times like this when you are so smug that Mr Market must punch your mustache off. In this case, your eyebrows will be coming off too…prepare yourself.
MM
Europe at session lows down about 3.5%.
MM is going down to new lows. Period.
Great artists see the future better than even The Fly. Thom Yourke should go down as one of the better economists of out time.
Apologies for posting so much tonight but was at an economics conference where Nobody knew what the fuck was going on.
Might as well link to it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nTFjVm9sTQ
What’s the difference between a i-banker and a pigeon?
A pigeon can still make a deposit on a Aston Martin.
One way of stopping this would be if the Bank of Japanese began some massive intervention to stop the rise of the yen and settle it back to 110 or so. If they did that it would change the direction of the stock markets.
I am ready to eat some more cow today. All of you pikers go ahead and jump in and pick up those “BARGINS” then get ready to hand over your $. WE are going to test and break thru the lows. There is no stopping this downward spiral in the near term. Not even the Messiah lord Obama can help you now
National Oilwell Varco-NOV reports Q3 EPS $1.31 vs. consensus of $1.30
Reports Q3 revenue $3.61B vs. consensus of $3.61B
Now that Goldman’s going to fire 3200 people, I wonder how many of them are going to end up at the Treasury. Hell the Govt. is the only one hiring. Didn’t they just grow government by the most in history. Paulson needs some more of his peeps to help him spend their -ugh- I mean OUR money. I am sure there are some Harvard Grads that are just great minds in the bunch that need another chance. You know like the genius people that got us into this mess. Just another line in the story about how the Goldman crew rules the roost
ATTENTION BLOG USERS:
T MOE will now be referred to as T DOUCHE
Please make a note of it.
Admin
That’s fine Douche works. In fact it’s fitting, because you know that I see a lot more pussy than you ever will, and I like it clean not dirty like yours.
On a different note, don’t shoot the messenger, or better yet don’t shoot me because I am a bear in the fly’s bull pen. Just keep listening to the fly. You know, your longs will come back some day, we will get a big rally, the fundies are what matter, and all the other shit that you pikers suck up.
It would pay for the Fed to PPT the market before the election. So trade light and sit tight. Fuck this market and get laid tonight.
We will see a rally soon, but mark my words, the lows will be tested and broken
This is the level Warren Buffett bought for his personal portfolio. You bears are going to get smoked. I was bearish all year now I’m flaming bullish. Go Buffett! Go USA! Go Intel!
FLy,
You still long MOS? POT is up 3.6% in early trading, hell maybe you should add more
Fuck you all! I am the power and the Glory
Keep up the good work DD.
A question was asked earlier about airlines and why the PPT didn’t list any as a top performer.
FYI- ALGT which has a 3.85 is actually the parent for a passenger airline known as Allegiant Air. They fly out of Orlando’s secondary airport in Sanford to a bunch of cities like Shreveport, Chattanooga, South Bend, etc. and they only have one flight out and in to these cities 2 or 3 days a week. I have flown them before and every flight is full and the fare is so cheap it has to be about 60% less than the cost of driving to the city of destination.
Thank God. Devil finally went to sleep.
Can we have a few moments of silence, while I prepare for glory?
Thanks.
NOV+/SKF+=
Fly winning again.
ALGT actually mainly a regional airline that does a lot of traveling to Las Vegas. A big owner is PAR Capital which has one of the best long-term track records ever.
Be careful, pal.
_______
SRS, your old friend, up better.
_______
UPS, apparently “too cheap” as well.
_____
Yeah Mr. EB, be careful, pal.
AMGN “flight to quality,” or “Pfeizer Pfodder?”
I report, you decide.
Or fuck off, whichever the case.
________
DEVILDOG.. REMINDS ME OF THAT GUY “BIG CHIEF” WHO WAS POSTING ON ALL THE YAHOO BOARDS ABOUT A YEAR AGO. HE WAS ON SITES LIKE C,AIG,WB,LEH…..SPEWING SHIT LIKE…GET THE FUCK OUT NOW!!!! THESE ARE CRIMINAL COMPANIES…..OVER LEVERAGED!!!! THESE COMPANIES WILL MAKE ENRON LOOK TAME….BOY NOBODY LIKED “BIG CHIEF” AND HIS ALL CAP POSTS…EVERYBODY CALLED BIG CHIEF A DICK AND A SHORT BASHER…THEY HAD ALL THEIR FACTS AND FIGURES TO SAY WHY AIG WAS SUCH A BUY AT THESE LEVELS…THEY SAID TO JUST PUT “BIG CHIEF” ON IGNORE!
ENJOY THE CLIMAX!!!!!!!!
On a lighter note could someone please take Jack W. to a tailor.
Now is the time to buy stocks and get rich. Right here. Right now. Mark my words. I’m been bearish ALL year. This is it. The time is now.
USA USA USA!!
As a trader i don’t wish bad luck on anyone, not do I get any kicks out of other people’s losses. It’s a fraternity in way. But fuck I which someone would make fucking bid at 180 a share for apple to shut the dog up. The critter has been barking all night. I personally think its a spambot.
FLY
NOV is up a buck in the pre market. It’s hardly a celebration after yesterdays most dismal performance. I had to remind myself it wasn’t a bank stock like when MS fell to 8 buck and change.
No body yell in case we wake the dog from his frequent short naps.
AAPL continues to sell shit like mad, but how long can it last? How many different phones and ipods can they make that people will throw away thier old one and buy. Look at MOT and NOK people are hlding on to thier phones for a longer period of time. I think AAPL goes down from here. I’m with DD. How ever in full disclosure I’ver been a bear since last Christmas
Poll–
Sell off or rally today?
T Moe
I don’t really see how that’s a great trade. It’s not as though the dog (barked)at the weakest puppy in the litter. He chose the strongest one. All in all it’s shit trade as there are plenty of other shitty tech firms he coulda chosen.
You got a point J, well taken
The only way I even think of getting long here is if the VIX hits 80 today
there are plenty of other shitty tech firms he coulda chosen.
And most of them have already been beat down to the low teens or single digits, so their downside potential is limited.
Caught up with that fucking rally monkey last night. I have my hands cliched around that little fuck’s throat. His ass is going to perform this afternoon, or his brains spill out on my keyboard.
Jeffrey Cooper
09:10:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Commodity Cycles
You don’t need me to tell you that crude has crashed. From 147 to 66.
For what it’s worth, crude is at 66 precisely two cycles of 360 degrees or 720 degrees in price down from high. Moreover, it is fascinating that on The Wheel of Time and Price, 147 and 66 vibrate off the date of October 28th.
A chart of Light Sweet Crude from my report this morning shows the descending triangle in which crude is currently coiled. See the chart here
Click to enlarge
This coincides with a the dollar that will be 180 degrees up from low at 89/90 and a potential turning point in gold on this morning’s break of 700.
Commodity prices may be at or near the end of an historic first leg down. It may be followed by a sharp short covering rally which would be imminently playable on the long side.
============
Bennet Sedacca
08:50:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Hey, look what I own now!
SunTrust Banks (STI) just announced that its expenses are too high, profits fell 26%, sees increased credit-related charge offs into 2009, sees deteriorating credit quality and doesn’t have a ‘deep need’ to sell stock to the US.
Yet, in the very next headline? ‘SunTrust may sell 1.6-4.9 billion in preferred stock to U.S.’
Hmmm. Sounds kinda fishy and desperate to me. I am not surprised as it is a local bank and it has tons of real estate exposure in the Southeast, notably Florida.
I am not sure yet what rate it will be paying, but I guess i will assume the 5% rate that Paulson talked about last week.
So let’s see, I could buy STI’s outstanding preferred at 11% (no thanks). Or its outstanding debt at 10% (pass).
Or I can buy its preferred at 5%. Cause I don’t have a choice, ‘We the People’ own it. Goodness gracious.
There will be a Rally before the storm
http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/10/23/news/local/18-romania.txt
Fly or one of his minions?
“Now go home and get your fecking shine box”
Pick a side bitches.
up
What makes the Fly successful is his ability to reverse his position completely if necessary. Not many are capable of that. And to do it publicly – extreemly rare
Fly, You blogging has been hilarious lately – from white robes to jellyfish.
Donny,
Some nice trading of late.
You’re completely wrong about bowtie guy though. He always admits he’s a terrible market timer; but he gets the rest right. Betting against a self-made billionaire is usually a bad idea. Remember he is not a S/T trader. His horizon is several years.
And no, he is not afraid.
Devil Dog,
Kudos recently
The future of the US is in the hands of the the advisors picked by the next president. Both candidates think hedges are good as long as they are trimmed Spring and Fall. If they bring in their good old boys like On My Watch, the USD & US may never recover. If they bring in the best, we have a chance.
Europe is recovering. Could be bullish for our markets. Or maybe not.
careful, you’re getting my blood all over your shoes, ovah theah!
I am going to go against Buffet and the Govt. for that matter and short Goldman
I have Warren fracking Buffett on my side. Remember him? The greatest investor ever, the richest investor ever? He told CNBC he was buying the morning of October 16th and stopped buying after the market rallied that afternoon. The market is at that October 16th level right here. He then wrote in the NYTimes next day he will go 100% American equities if stocks continued to be weak.
I have Buffett on my side and you guys have DevilDog. Game set match. Nuff said.
Up 100, down 100…booooring. We require 400 points, at least. Make it so!
I am long 98% American equities and short 7% (a electronics retailer that will go under). USA! USA! USA!
I went long yesterday afternoon. Was net short before that.
I love the smell of fried shorts in the morning. I can feel it around the corner.
wake the dog up. kick the kennel. If he isn’t color blind he’ll see green.
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/
I’m getting my grill ready for fried devildogs.
Just covered my short Goldman
Minyanville Staff
09:35:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Vibes from Minyan Tony “Snoop” Dwyer of FTN Midwest
At a new closing low and near the intraday low from October 10th my firm is closer to being a buyer than a seller despite our stubborn “staying out of the way” stance.
There are basically three reasons I’ve recommended “staying out of the way” despite how much the markets are down and the fact that folks like Warren Buffett are buying for the next three to five years. I too agree with Warren’s view, especially if you are an investor that never has to worry about unemployment, college tuition, car payments, mortgage payments, elder care and the typical drain of daily spending needs. I do agree that historic value is being created, but there will be ample time to accumulate stocks at historically attractive levels when we know that corporate credit has improved and global growth has stabilized. That is simply NOT the case right now and as a result, trying to pick the low is a total guess. It may very well work, but it is a total guess.
The Three Reasons:
1. The S&P 500 is Still NOT Oversold Enough. My trusty 14-week stochastic indicator has not yet reached deeply enough into oversold territory to a level that has marked major intermediate-term lows in the current or past bear market. It is close, but in bear markets, it has to become extreme.
2. Corporate Spreads Have NEVER Been Higher. Despite the improvement in LIBOR, the corporate credit markets are as bad as they have EVER been. I’ve said that saving the global financial system from total failure is very good, but it is not yet a growth strategy. Growth comes through increased capital investment, and having Corporate yield spreads to 10-yr U.S. Treasuries trading at a never before seen level clearly means investors are not yet interested in providing that capital. This postpones any significant and sustainable domestic economic and earnings recovery until corporate spreads come back toward normal levels.
3. Shipping Rates Reinforce Global Economic Slowdown/Shutdown. The Baltic Dry Index of shipping rates has collapsed, which reinforces our view that the Global Economy continues to decelerate sharply rather than recover with LIBOR. This is a forward looking global economic indicator since it measures real raw material shipping rates in 26 markets determined daily. There was clearly an oversupply of raw materials being shipped into the middle of 2008, but the very recent collapse in this index makes it very very clear that the needed change in the perception that global growth is rapidly decelerating, is NOT going to happen very quickly.
This means I remain tactically neutral. For investment partnerships, it means very little exposure either way and for long-only accounts it means being as close to benchmark weightings as possible. I’d slightly underweight those areas exposed to the “global growth” trade that has proven to be a myth – Energy, Materials, and Industrials) and slightly overweight Large Cap Domestic Growth areas such as Health Care and Consumer Staples. I want to stand ready to take advantage of better prices as they present themselves, and it is much easier to do that from a neutral rather than negative position when credit finally begins to improve.
The point of wanting to take advantage of more attractive prices (for at least a temporary rally) should be very close at hand once we get even a tiny change in the above three points. The markets may very well be at/near a major low point, but as I’ve pointed out – every major economically crash related bear market low similar to this one has been retested months later with the knowledge that the credit market has dramatically improved. As a result, we can be very patient buyers.
Holy schit, did you see that swing bounce on GG?
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Light my fire, baby.
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Smile you…. bitch!
KAPOW!!
— Roy Scheider, circa, last major recession.
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Here we go…..free fallin.
Monday October 27th 2008 = Black Monday.
write it down.
CAP:
That would Black Monday 2.0
The best thing that could happen is if governments around the world intervened and shut down the markets for 2 weeks. Then they can resolve this CDS issue, figure out who owes what.
BTW what happened with Lehmans CDS settlement ? Anyone know ?
Things are getting very ugly also in the emerging markets,” Roubini said. “We used to say when the U.S. catches a cold, the rest of the world sneezes. Well, the U.S. now has chronic and persistent pneumonia. It’s becoming a mess in emerging markets.”
Lehman CDS was a non-event. Everyone paid up and went home.
Damn it I was too early to cover Goldman left some $ on the table. It is gettin beat up
GS barfing as someone guards bathroom door.
Is it go time?
UYM
I will write nothing down, fag.
I am currently lying … under oath.
Fuck Amerika !
I will protect my (false) legacy! …. Fuckers!
UYM is a great way to play beaten down commodity type stocks
Call me early but in my short term trade book Donny wins with DIG.
Ah, the old Greenspan magic. Those were the days. It’s like a flashback.
Folks. Don’t worry about losing all your money in the market. We have bigger things to worry about. Like the world ending in 4 years .
He reminds me of Gollum. He wants his fuckin’ ring back.
Donny wins again – DIG up – Donnymon, don’t forget to post when you switch to DUG.
Greenspan looks like an ugly fish pulled from the depths of the ocean.
I said…Now Go Home and Get your F’in SHINEBOX!
Fly – Did you laserbeam my bullshit blog?
If so, please have mercy on me & my brethren.
BA up
CAT down 2%
GE red
AA down
XOM + 7%
DOW 30 is gay
Meanwhile, S&P +905 seems to have bear’s attention. Bought more GCI @ 9.15
Already 18 roudtrip trades with 15 positive. Looking forward to Leave It To Beaver this AM and a resetting of the mind.
Donny Nice work.
That “train is coming” thing you did yesterday was cool.
Fried DEVILDOGs for sale! Fried DEVILDOGS for sale! I bought CMG this morning too. Booyah!
lifted from a comment from Mike Murphy on his advisory.
‘The Lehman Brothers credit derivative swaps settled Tuesday, and may have caused some of the late-day weakness as those who wrote the insurance sold stocks to come up with the money to pay. Lehman had over $600 billion of debt, which attracted about $400 billion in outstanding swap contracts.
About 350 different counterparties to the Lehman contracts were at the auction, where it was determined that Lehman’s debt is worth only 8.62 cents on the dollar in bankruptcy.
So the “protection sellers” who sold insurance against Lehman’s default have to pay out 91.38 cents for each dollar of debt they insured. If you are keeping score, net of offsets that’s about $270 billion from firms like AIG, Bill Gross’ PIMCO and the Citadel hedge funds. It goes to the banks, brokers, pension funds and other financial intermediaries that held Lehman debt and paid the insurance premium. Of course, this is the largest payout ever in the $55 trillion credit default swap market. It may be blamed for triggering a crash this week.”
Old Beardy says a grasping douche stole my name. @10:48
CAP- can we speed that up a bit? I can’t take another four years of this fuckin’ bullshit.
Karl, it was probably that Tin Knight character. I bought some SDS – I looked at SDP per DevilD but SDS almost always outperforms SDP so WTF?