The banks get all of the spotlight, because of the systemic repercussions of a failure. However, anyone in the business of investing knows the crumble of commodities has been far more pervasive and damaging to the investor.
The fuckery in the banks was telegraphed, long before the debacle. This commodity nose dive came out of left field, effectively fucking the entire investment community and other unsavory folks too.
Look at the charts of The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] or Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] and you will vomit on top of your keyboard. It’s that hideous.
The only way to compare this popped bubble, in my opinion, is to the dot coms, circa 2000-2003.
Without a doubt: the exponential rally in commodities and commodity shares is over. But that does not mean we can’t have fun, before they enter the stock market cemetery.
Go take a look at Cisco Systems, Inc. [[CSCO]] , between the years 00-02. Not only will you find a harrowing decline in its shares, you will also find sharp rallies, especially in the months of Oct-December.
So, to sum things up:
I intend to play the bouncing, already popped, bubble, before shorting it to its death. I want to be clear about my intentions, which by no means is one of a gentleman.
I am just trying to play the percentages. And, right now, my “calculator brain” says to get long prior to Halloween, and get ready to blow out near Thanksgiving.
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FLY,
what do you think of DRR..The Euro is falling apart.
Bought UYG @ 9.75
rally from halloween to turkey day?
talk about threading a needle
DRR:
Accumulation Distribution 5
Price Performance 4
Relative Strength 5
Volatility 1
Volume 1
Sub Rosa 0
Final Score 3.75
PPT Recommendation: Buy
upside from here … SPX 1050-1100 tops
downside SPX 500-600 … not great risk reward
Watch that shitty close in Europe. Its like a competition to see who is the ‘gayest’ of them all. Asia was Gay, Europe is Gayer and we will be ‘Gayest’. Down 500 by the close.
Seriously , its a race to zero amongst all the exchanges.
NOV is getting destroyed. Motherfucker!
Good plan, I approve this message.
Donny has made frightening sums of coin since October 2007, because he was right about that too!
Bennet Sedacca
11:00:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Can it be?
Can it be that the worst of the credit crisis is in front of us? That the economic crisis that stems from the credit crisis has just begun in earnest?
Me thinks so.
My firm is seeing the following:
*
Seizing up of Emerging Sovereign National Debt.
*
A trillion dollars of losses in the Alt A space.
*
A trillion dollars of losses in leveraged corporate loans.
*
A sky rocketing unemployment rate.
*
A dysfunctional credit market.
And oh yes, a Fed and Treasury that has thrown everything against the wall and have now gone from omnipotent to impotent. Or as they say down here in the South, ‘From the Penthouse to the Outhouse’.
They are out of bullets in my opinion.
The tsunami I wrote about a while back may have just become an avalanche. Globally.
Risks are high. Very high.
Donny greatly enjoys this very venue, because it plays right into the sick fuckers ego. Donny thinks The Fly is brilliant, and is presently conspiring ways to steal that fucking time machine.
Egregious gap in Nov that’s gonna need filling. You know what I’m talking about Dennis Kneale.
ATTENTION: November will most certainly be the time to switch gears and prepare for an economic apocalypse. Fortunately for you, Israel is here to lend a hand, primarily because they prepare for an apocalypse on a monthly basis since 1958:
Coming Soon From Israel (Expected arrival Nov 1st 2008)
IMI 308 Unprimed Brass $169.00 per 1000
IMI 7.62×39 Unprimed Brass $159.00 per 1000
IMI 5.56(223) Unprimed Brass $139.00 per 1000
IMI 9mm 95gr FMJ projectile $59.00 per 1000
Hornady 7.62×39 123gr Soft Point Projectile $79.00 per 1000
These ammo prices are dirt cheap, in fact you could easily afford to shoot anything that moves near your residence on a daily basis, including rustling leaves, for pennies on the dollar.
Wrong again fly. Fuck your rally thru turkey day.
What would be a target price for MOS around Thanksgiving time?
This fat ass that’s sitting on me is about to get up, watch out!
Fly,
Has PPT changed its reading on NOV?
I’m noticing a bearish wedge on my software now…
Fly, many of the companies in the dot.com bust didn’t have any earnings. How can you compare that to MOS NOV MON? You really think that these three will become single digit stocks?
Yea Fly is “playing” the bouncing…. he started buying NOV at $33, averaged down, now its below $25.
Say hi to your Dad, aka, Bill Miller
That’s called averaging in, not averaging down..Duh!
The only “bounce” I see coming, will come after Mr. Market chops the heads off the longs in NOV. After the head becomes detached, it has a small, but almost imperceptible “bounce” off the floor.
Other than that 12% move up, this market has been severely lacking a bear market rally that has last more than 3 hours.
4fl3x- Losers average losers.
There are indeed two Donny’s that live in my brain.
(Exhibit A) Investor Donny ~ This Donny is foolish at times, and we all witnessed him appear a few weeks ago when he got deBalled buying banks, insurance co’s, and bullish etf’s. However, this Donny rarely makes appearances in The Fly’s blog. He feels more comfortable in Gio, Shedder, Cajun and Danny’s blogs … often discussing shit outside of the stock market. This Donny thinks he’s smart because he possesses a business degree. This Donny is a very nice guy, often helping your grandma with her groceries to her car. This Donny is a fun, God fearing, Republican man. Many of you would enjoy this Donny’s company, while entertaining a beer. This Donny thinks Trader Donny is a sick, greedy, back stabbing, repugnant personality.
More in the other Donny (Trader Donny) in the future.
I can’t seem to resist. Started PCX @ $15.27
http://www.bobbrinker.com/MOD.asp
For shits and grins I listen to Bobh Brinker on demand $4.95 a month. Great deal.
check it out.
fly are you really dennis kneal? Just asking.
who gives 3 asexual fiddles and a 1 legged goat about trader donny, investor donny, or douchbag donny?
I am now short AAPL. It is free to move to $120. All aboard.
Donny, you are my fucking hero:)
Donny
Shouldn’t that be a conversation you have with your analyst?
Fly, why would anyone give any credit and pay for PPT ratings after those abominable NOV and MOS calls?
Big fan FLY, but tough to argue w/ PPT-DOA
Let that rally monkey out of the cage and hand the bitch a sign. She’s about ready to perform. Eye No.
ps
Civilization to zero.
NOV bending over, taking it like a real man
… a real gay man.
My neighbor (very recently retired NFL FB) balls deep fucked by his FA in ‘secure’ commodities: $300K in FLATX @ $68…now, he asks me should I sell? No, but another boat would’ve been a better investment. Plus, this guy is underwater in half his real estate and has %s in ‘good’ hedge funds.
Trader Donny thinks The Fly should rely less on computer models, and more on his godly instincts.
I am the ultimate contrary indicator. EVERY fucking time I follow you into a trade, I get my ass handed to me. X $37.15 (-12.28%).
Why to you think Brett Farve came out of retirement?
Wait, you mean that when people think there’s going to be a shortage of something, prices adjust accordingly, until the demand drops, and then the shortages is gone, and the “fad” is done?
weird.
First it was Iceland, now it’s Argentina, Hungary is on deck. The global system is collapsing before your eyes.
It’s frightening to see how much money global policy makers are injecting into “the system” only to see the prices for stocks, houses, and commodities spiral in collapse. Expect massive unemployment (8%-10%), and for those with a job, their wages and salaries will be slashed.
Credit contractions/deflationary depressions are dark times.
Fly,
What do you think about this lame volume suddenly? What’s causing the market to dry up?
-DT
Hey eye no go fuck a monkey.
Dinosaur Trader: everyone’s waiting & expecting the market to go up right now. so we go down soon (hard), if no one’s willing to man up.
Poof. All of your bullshit hate should be over.
NOV -20%! Is PPT the ultimate contrary indicator?
Donny, you can do no wrong with DIG and DUG. Great Job!
It’s FAVRE
I was long cheese…
Selling exhaustion, right here, right now..
so i herd…
Well, the thing is that the volume also sucks to the downside. I feel like everyone positioned duriing the craziness and now they’re just chilling. Perhaps we need to really get close to the lows for shit to pick back up… either that, or run back to the highs. Maybe we’re just stuck in this range.
Also, I nominated “the Fly” to be Obama’s Treasury Secretary over at Clusterstock. If that idea catches on, expect the markets to pop.
-DT
scully he won’tbe your neighbor in the Spring
juice thx for the linx denninger – scary stuff
BOOMER, welcome aboard the AAPL submarine. DIVE! DIVE! AUGHGA…AUGHGA…
Jake – for you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TiQCJXpbKg
Global depression
Iceland is 250,000 people. Its equal to a small Nascar meet.
Argentina has been a basket case since the 30’s.
Tell us something bigger.
The bears are all set to get rolled on this afternoon.
Trader Donny is flat in DIG. Fly is after the proverbial dead cat bounce in commods. Iceland is like 220,000 people? There are many cities in the USA larger than Iceland.
“get long prior to Halloween, and get ready to blow out near Thanksgiving”
Homer, I told you to sell your pumpkin futures BEFORE Halloween!
D’oh!
j, do some studying. You’re dumber than dirt.
Donny Says:
Trader Donny thinks The Fly should rely less on computer models, and more on his godly instincts.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Donny there is some validity to your point. The gut is a good indicator.
Take a look at DRR
Quick Political Comment:
The American People are pissed off! They are going to hand over the keys of the Gov’t to the commies … is this bad? I don’t think so. Why? Because this country is naturally right of center, and once they get 4 years of complete fuckery from Jimmy Carter #2, there will be a backlash. I promise you fuckers.
PCX is sucking squirrel shit. Fuck me. Next time I put my toes in the water, throw me a cinder block.
The deafening screams of apocalypse and “its different this time”, has a Deja Vu quality to it.
My guess is that chant comes from those who were buying at the high a year ago chasing the global growth story saying “its different this time”.
It’s quiet out there.
Rainin’ bodies, though.
Soon enough..
I’m long Terducken in November
Donny is correct, which is why real Republicans gave up months ago: blame the new guy for the next four years and then ride back into power in oh-12.
The thing is, the new guy gets to throw a nice long tax and spend for my peeps.
Respect, yo!
Clean out your accounts of what the market hasn’t yet taken.
The way your picking stocks, no one is gonna pay for premium service.
donny
I’m with you. if the american public want the dems policies let them have it good and fucking hard is what i say.
Governments write the rules book. All the existing CDS can be voided – poof – no more problem. It is that Obama character that is crashing the market – pure DOOM – he should maybe be driving a taxi in Jakarta.
A financial panther eh??
This site is constantly crashing when I refresh. What gives?
AAPl is forming a potato wedge upside down cake pattern. Must mean lunch is ready in the cafeteria.
Donny you underestimate pissed off. The American PEOPLE will overthrow our puppet government in a violent revolution in which the 1%ers behind the curtain will be put to death on the public streets. Write it down.
I am the PPT.
PPT = “pause….point….throw”
no, after the market crater it’s more like all models are assfucked right now (i would assume PPT as well), random bullshit reigns supreme due to hedge funds blowing up, selling the good stuff, causing a gladwellian tipping point for the good stuff which cannot be reversed.
IOW: nothing makes sense right now, but you already knew that.
Boredom just hit us, longs getting frustrated, we’re heading lower.
All you morons with the dem versus rep crap are just stupid. It’s just a democracy sham to keep you distracted. Get a brain.
Hey, calm down everyone, the market’s just pricing in my victory baby!
I feel sick.
It’s not the size, but the inter-connectedness that matters. Sovereigns are now falling like dominos, just like the banks were a month ago. When Hungary goes, Turkey and many of the other Eastern European countries running current account deficits are in jeopardy of massive capital outflows.
Brazil runs surpluses and look what’s happening there in the wake of Argentina. The South American countries who should be panicking are those running current account deficits. They will see massive capital outflows like their Eastern European brothers.
HI!!!
FLY – YOU WERE WARNED SEVERAL TIMES.
COMMODITIES ARE OVER – EXCEPT NAT GAS…. YOU HAVE REAPED WHAT YOU SOWED… THROW IN THE TOWEL WITH DIGNITY.
NOV -22.22% Odd, no?
Gee does America have a current account deficit? Answer: yes, the greatest in the entire history of mankind.
BTW, fly great calls on MOS and NOV. What was that you said early this morning about my 10% SHORT losses today?
AAPL…DIVE…DIVE…
BTW, Donny doubles position in DIG @ 28.05
AVG cost 28.57
fly this board has become nothing but assholes and elbows–quite ammusing- we are getting a former black panther party member as our next president and the liberal left will control both houses-the market has gone into the tailsin when osama jumped out to lead by 5pts. now it’s ten.i’ve gone across the tracks to hand out twenty dollar bills to those less fortunate-they said fuck you- give me fifty-
it’s over, this country’s fucked.
Enjoy your Presidency Obama fuckers.
DEXION10: SO I SEE THAT YOU KNOW TODAY IS INTERNATIONAL CAPSLOCK DAY.
“CAPSLOCK IS CRUISE CONTROL FOR COOL”
hey hey my my…FLY call somebody down on the floor and set them straight..you got clout..you got pull..give them a shoot out and make the man respect the fly..
Stay Tuned Kids: I’m working on a new indicator that tracks the frequency of Devildog’s posts per day. It will be the new VIX.
Cheesefries- Shouldn’t you be playing golf at Pinehurst #2 about now?
I am thinking about going to Forest Oaks (Greensboro,NC) to watch a college tournament in a few days. Ever been there? Used to be a PGA Tour stop.
NOV reports earnings tomorrow. How can it hold at 24?
Or, rather, not hold 24. Stupid no edit.
Quick note to any fucker holding NOV (wholly fuck) … it’s always the darkest right before the sun rises! 🙂
AAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!
or when the sun goes permanently dark & cold, and we all die. 🙂
Many whining Republicans on this board today. The only demographic group McCain polls well in now is the barefooted, dumbassed, uneducated, bible thumping, gun loving, inbred, white person making less than $15 K a year. You fuckers get off this board and go have sex with your sisters.
FCX & NOV.
the race to zero, who wins?
Donny why are you fighting the trent. Oil is going to 55 – 60. You’re going to loose your ass on DIG. Well at least you don’t have to worry about all those criminal gains you HAD.
Make that trend. fly how about at least an edit function? Or are you running out of NOV and MOS money?
REPLY FOR: so i herd mudkips
sorry for the caps… sorry for the bull shitting that is going on today.
here’s how I see it:
Who knows when THE BOTTOM will arrive – I don’t. But I can tell you with certainty that the money supply is shrinking and asset values must follow. Banks do not have the capacity to create enough money to fix the problems.
you can read my blog here:
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=98489&t=01006200319074134916
Until we see the mother of all bailouts and we figure how to shore up the consumer balance sheet this market can fall.
In the meantime the only stocks worth buying in my book are:
CCK – recession proof food canning business
JBX – Fast food joint at 6.7x PE
INCY – Biotech with 13 drugs… a lot of shots on goal.
CLDA – biotech with deep pocketed backer and
SD, UPL, KWK, HK – own a natural gas stock with cheap finding costs.
SHORT
RYL
SRS
Hey eye (don’t) know shit. Did the monkey scream when you fucked it up the ass?
pcx, aci – who needs ’em? This winter we’ll all be burning down our cities just to keep up with the times; no problem staying toasty.
I hate this damn market… I’m done… rather buy powerball tickets than gamble on the rebound of ag plays, oil, and gold.
someone swat fly and crush him once and for all
No. seriously, today is international capslock day:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=international+caps+lock+day&btnG=Google+Search&aq=f&oq=
Another country AWOL: Pakistan’s down to 30 days of cash. They’re a little bigger than Iceland, and lots more emotional. They could decide to just invade the IMF and take it over;) That’s what the Russians shoulda done, instead of wasting time with destitute peasants and lousy farmland. Go for the Gold!!
I mean, how stupid is it to create a cartel in natural gas? That’s like setting up a cartel in goats or dung beatles. I’d rather grab the cartel in international bailout capital!
Iceland is like 220,000 people? There are many cities in the USA larger than Iceland.
Yeah, like fuckin’ all of ’em.
_____
Okie Uncle sez: Buy big oil, they always go up.
Why? Because this country is naturally right of center, and once they get 4 years of complete fuckery from Jimmy Carter #2, there will be a backlash. I promise you fuckers.
I think it’ll be two years, and then they send Nancy & Harry Packin’ and denude Barack to “Post ’94 Bill Clinton status.
Then they can re-elect the fuck for all I care.
__________
anybody buying energy today? any names in particular?
great site, no one gets a break, ever
RUT turning here as well, bottom of the triangle. I thought it would make 506, but it looks like maybe 509 was it.
Buying calls.
_________