Notice how all of you smores eating flower fuckers were looking to fish for bottom yesterday, only to catch a sharp ax to the neck today? Way too many rookies are long equities here, hoping and praying for the Fed or the Treasury to buy them a new polo sweater.
You fucking pikers need to stop thinking so small. And, you little bullshit penny stock whores need to get off iBankCoin. Just make believe iBC is a crime riddled ghetto and you are some cornball with expensive gold chains on your neck. If that made any sense to you, then you know where I stand.
Going forward, expect to see insurers get racked, particularly The Allstate Corporation [[ALL]] , MetLife, Inc. [[MET]] , Hartford Financial Services [[HIG]] and Prudential Financial, Inc. [[PRU]] .
Finally, my cash position is immense. Frankly, it’s more than 75% of my assets under management. First thing tomorrow morning, I will blow out of the rest of my [[SRS]] , [[SKF]] and [[EEV]] , then prepare to go long.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Here, here. You are on a roll.
I second that. It would be nice if I had a bit more patience, but I can only play the game with the tools the “Big Guy Upstairs” gave me and learn to be trade better by listening to the Fly.
Care to toss a full retard with a few longs in advance?
Fly:
I have been reading your site for a while now and thoroughly enjoy your writing. Hopefully we will see capitulation in the morning so we can donkey punch our way up 1000 in the Dow.
P.S. Great call in SRS.
P.P.S. Is UYG going to 0?
Fly you da man…The Picasso of this blogging shit. Fuck Carl Icahnn’s[sic]3rd Tier DT’ish blog.
LOL… Smores Eating Flower F…’s …Fat Neck… it only gets better.
Chill out… flat for 48 hours– more fireworks Thursday PM.
Have some westhpect for the days of ORE
—Barney Frank
UYG goes to zero, then below, forcing holders to make a Jerry Lewis Nutty Professor-era sound like, “Uyg!”
I am absolutely sure of this because I own UYG.
Anton.. I just heard some guys on the radio doing some Jerry Lewis…. that is funny as shit.
Common stock in any US money center is just a tax deductible gift to Uncle Sam. We should have flown to Thailand instead of buying that turd.
So solly, down just 2% today on longs bot yesterday. Up 100+% for the year so don’t cry for me, argentina.
Praise be to GLORC.
Mrkcbill,
That’s grim. I was in Thailand summer before last. Nearly bumped into Kofi Anon (sic) at our hotel, supposedly the best in the country. Less than a block away I saw poverty that made Tijuana seem like Pacific Heights. Things have gotten worse, since. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081007/ap_on_re_as/as_thailand_political_unrest;_ylt=Arbs6UiTlOh8tT_Pkb55jRgBxg8F
But now that you mention it, if I had a choice, I think I’d opt for the trip.
Mrkcbill,
That’s grim. I was in Thailand summer before last. Nearly bumped into Kofi Anon (sic) at our hotel, supposedly the best in the country. Less than a block away I saw poverty that made Tijuana seem like Pacific Heights. Things have gotten worse, since.
But now that you mention it, if I had a choice, I think I’d opt for the trip.
When you talk about Polo sweaters, flowers and smores, I can only think of one thing… skull fucking.
Bring it.
Barack has sure got some big ears.
You know what they say about a man with big ears?
WTF? A rich guy like you didn’t get those fixed?
Our best times are ahead. Armageddon is good times.
Down 15% per week means market to zero in a little over 6 weeks – what to do then? I was too long today – I was trading in and out of bear ETFs because I kept expecting reversal – maybe tomorrow?
One will tax and spend. The other will borrow and spend.
Personally, I’ll take the latter. Oil and gold are going up regardless and I like to keep my money, thanks.
John McCain has gone full retard. Tonight he is revealed as a stammering old man.
What the holy fuck was he talking about with the “buy up the mortgages and refinance them at current market value?”
Good god, we are doomed.
As I watch the debate, I can feel the smart being sucked out of my skull and obliterating itself in a collision with the drivel emanating from my TV.
Curses to the know-nothing voters who haven’t yet been able to make a decision.
Right Boomer. McCain is a fucking butt-humping rump ranger. Obama is a damn Communist (the weak kind, the kind that never actually had to live under the oppressive boot of a skull-fucker like Pol Pot). The average American has the IQ of a sea cucumber. I have no faith in the collective.
Oh, and by the way, I think the bottom may be in (for now).
I caught a big ole catfish bottom fishing one time, he smelt better than this market even after he wuz ded.
Excuse me … it seems I have misplaced my balls. Has anybody seen them?
Here’s my 2 cents re: “stablizing home prices”. This is really simple. Listen up, now. If you can’t pay your mortgage because you were too stupid to do the math, take the furniture you bought on the credit card you shouldn’t have that sits in the house that you can’t afford and take it down to the local Goodwill or St. Vinnie’s. They’ll give you cash money for it. Take that money and go buy as abacus. While you’re sitting around in your furniture-less rental home that I leased to you at an egregiously high rent, figure out how to use the abacus. Then, when the dust settles and you’ve save the pennies you’re being paid for your shit job down at the “Rec Center”, you can buy the house you rented from me for the last several years at the newly inflated price. Then lather, rinse, and repeat…
Someone should skull fuck Tom Brokaw.
“Someone should skull fuck Tom Brokaw.”
I nominate Danny…
Asia down 5% in early trade.
Brokaw was awful.
-DT
Agreed, DT. You know who else was awful; the undecided doorknobs in the audience. As noted above, if these brain-dead “voters” represent the large swath of the American public, we deserve the trip into the abyss on our itinerary. It was like watching Randy from “My Name Is Earl” asking thought-provoking “questions” to a pair of siamese twins with Down’s Syndrome.
I would not trust McCain with the keys to a car, let alone the Presidency.
We all deserve a President who is willing to start a REAL WAR, not this pussy Iraq shit, no offense to the marines.
How about a draft, with a Winter Offensive near Moscow?
Who’s game?
Unemployment will go to zero.
Coming soon.
Asia is playing catch up, fuck them.
Brokaw is a douche. Actually, everyone in that room was a douche, including the audience. The only way out of this mess is to bank enough coin so i can build a huge barbed wire covered fence around my house and hire mercs to be my personal security force. Tresspassers and asshats will be shot and eaten.
Fuck Moscow, I want Brazil. Hot girls and gobs of oil.
Fly,
Whatever happened to your campaign? I recall the “Fly 2008” stuff fondly… you’d make a nice third party candidate.
You could have run on a “anti-mustache, pro-perm” message and done quite well.
-DT
I was this close to switching my vote to Barry (really, that bullshit about buying back the mortgages from McCain had me gasping for air on the floor), because he said “we should not let Iran get a nuclear weapon!”
I was like “WTF?? Barry gettin’ all ‘Reagan’ on me, ovah heah?”
Then he goes on to explain his “big weapon” against Iran and Russian is having us all drive Yugos and mopeds.
So much for my woody.
______
Does anyone else other than me see how the fly is always winning???? Fuck people open your eyes!!!! The Fly (prison bitch) is a farce!!!! He makes this shit up as he goes!!!! The only one who probably really trades here is the Cajun…. The fly is not God, he is an annoying shit eater who lies and doesn’t know what the fuck he’s talking about. I still enjoy this website…
Fuck, I hate it when the Fly is right. Here I am with my bullshit mad money account all celebrating that I made $300 today on some pissy little puts. I already hate myself and then I gotta come here and have the truth thrown at me, too.
Fuck it, I’m not leaving. Learning too much.
I would not trust a guy with the screen name from the B-roll epic, “Escape from New York,” with the keys to my roll-on luggage.
________
“poopoo” told to “fuck a mountain goat” in 3….2….1….
-DT
Is ACH going under ? Like WTF from $90 to $12 in 12 mos and a PE ratio of 1.5.
That shit McCain was giving the Obester about “how much was the fine?” was kinda amusing.
McCain was like the dude from the movie “Leprechaun” dancing around with his evil little snipes at the slow witted Obester.
What a clown show. I can’t believe this is my “choice.”
Geeeezus, we are fucking doomed.
__
Fly,
Regarding Tom Brokaw’s skull, are you sure that hasn’t already happened?
Damn what a boring “debate.” The scoring comes down to which one lied better. Any idiot who believes Obama is going to cut taxes give me a call I have some stocks to sell you.
Just met up with the mountain goat, he was too busy fucking your maaaamaaaa….
any ETF shorting insurance companies?
Tomorrow, buy December calls on the SSO (Sue Sue Sudio).
Thanks me later, or send money.
Or even better, build a shrine to GLORC in your backyard.
______
Full disclosure, I got them this afternoon at 450 down.
______
Tony Soprano would have made a better moderator than Brokaw. He´d be like WTF are youse thinkin’about?
If I post here, will my post get deleted like last time?
Flying Dick
Poopoo:
Normally, I’d tell you to go fuck a mountain lions mouth. But there was something about your post that struck a cord. It was sheer hatred. I can resonate with that.
Hell, if I was reading this bullshit site and some obnoxious asshole kept on winning and winning, I’d probably lose my mind and mail him fake anthrax or some shit.
Believe me, “The Fly” could care less about your little thoughts. Just get the fuck out of my way when I come rolling in an egregious big wheeler, on my way to crush your house.
CAP, re: ACH, guess the Feds can’t buy everything 😉
Poopoo- we all trade. One of my trading accounts is fully transparent for your review.
Did he really say I could be Treasury Secretary?
He is off the deep end – I ran an internet garage sale.
Posts do not get deleted. We are having an issue with the spam filter.
Jake,
What calls do you recommend on SSO ? It seems these calls are overpriced. I sold some October 150 calls on SKF instead. It seems selling options is more profitable than buying them in this current environment. I might sell some SDS 100 and SMN 85 calls tomorrow.
poopoo,
Good one. Listen, if the third grade is giving you trouble, watch out for fourth, it’s a doozy.
-DT
Jake, no more phil collins references. Please.
Re: SSO. DAmmit, you bull fuckers are going to make me go on a fucking rant. Don’t do that, please. It is late, and I want to go to bed, not type up a stupid post about why I think it is stupid to be making moves here before capitulation.
Just a little bit here and there Wood. What are you going to do call a bottom, or wait for it?
Fuck, once this thing snaps, it’s going to be a rocket ride.
We’re 24% below the 200 day MA. What’s the record, anyway? 28?
Cap, agreed, selling the calls is a better idea, valuation wise, but — imo — disastrous from a risk weighted side.
You want to hold SKF calls short when the entire banking system augers in?
Not me, Kemosabe.
_________
Well … its go time … I was thinking it either bounce from here , or CRASH. And thats what I’m going with.
I’m not voting for the jerk who thought Meg Whitman was qualified to be Treasury Secretary just because she ruined Ebay. *radiating laser beams of hatred and scornful looks at Meg Whitman*
Boca, that’s as good enough reason to vote in communism as any other, I expect.
_________
Bruce, are you saying you think crash now??
__
I’m going to wait for capitulation.
Jake, throw out all the old indicators and measures. You are trying to measure something for which you have no appropriate tool. What is happening now is unprecedented, and I believe strongly that applying standard measures of breadth, TA, and statistical analysis is not going to work. And this is coming from a die-hard technician.
Jake,
Selling SKF calls is an acceptable risk for me because if the entire banking system collapses, they won’t be able to collect from me. The Dollar will be worthless. Everyone will be broke. Even those short the market will be broke. SKF will technically go to zero.
I’m thinking either bounce OR crash … no in betweeny shit … well, its been a slow motion crash I suppose
I was just on Timbo’s blog & he’s been as good as anyone … he’s got charts up saying the same thing
I’d make more on a bounce at this point
Hey Wood. Are you still trading the old ETF RSI(2) system? How’s it holding up with the recent carnage. Lots of buy signals now. Thus far, my positions have held up remarkably well.
I agree with the Sheddster … this is unprecedented
Fly,
I have no hatred towards you or your site. I just like honesty. I come to this site almost every day… I enjoy it, especially when you loose… You are like that one friend everyone has, a one upper. Sounds to me like you are a bit narcissistic. The whole God thing is kind of sickening.
You know you can see a psychologist for that. If you stopped playing with funny money and start playing with the real thing this site would probably shut down because of the pure devastation of you loosing, you’d probably hang yourself in a week. Better yet I like coming here so don’t play real money, keep doing what you are doing… Comedy is great for the soul…
Yes, I’m expecting a crash here Jake.
In my honest estimation, we are going to see a complete a total collapse. As much as I disagree with CAP, I think the Fed is going to have to step in and guarantee everything when this happens.
I think it is very probable that it happens this week.
Shedder you are great… Your advice is always great.
IMO a lot of current market longs already have downside exposure via S&P puts. They have no reason to continue selling. A crash though not out of the question is unlikely.
Plus it appears retail has capitulated courtesy of Jim Booya Cramer and his ‘sell everything’ rant on the Today Show yesterday.
I can’t imagine a scenario where Jim Cramer is left gloating because he saved Mom and Pop investors from a crash the week it happened.Its more likely that he got them out of the market the week stocks bottomed and gained 30% in the ensuing 3 months thus making a complete Boob of himself and living up to his Boobulous reputation.
I agree with you somewhat Wood, re: the unprecedented nature of this market. That having been said, you can’t go anywhere without hearing about how bad the market is. The retard bagging my Pop Tarts this afternoon babbled on about how his AAPL calls were destroying his net worth. I’m not big on bottom calling, but for my long-term money (retirement coin), I’ve scaled in. The intermediate term bounce before we resume the slide down will be here soon.
Boob…
Junk, I’m not trading the Old Old RSI2 ETF System, but I am still trading a new version of it. There was a major modification to the strategy that keeps you on the right side of the market. The old old strategy is still showing a 10% ROI, YTD. The New Old RSI2 ETF system (formally named Power Double Dip System) is showing a current YTD ROI of 157.69%
On another note lots of investors received their 401k/investment account statements for the quarter yesterday. What percentage do you think got on the phone today with their brokers/financial advisers and demanded they sell everything and move to cash ? Baby boomers anticipating upcoming retirement are scared shitless. They are liquidating everything to cash. Hedge funds blew out by end of September. Its retail that is currently blowing out. Bottom is nearly in.
Wood. What is the name of the post in the archive that has the specs on the New Old RSI2 ETF system (especially re: the “major mod” you refer to)? I’ve been working on gathering data for the Old Old system on common stocks.
CAP, re: Cramer, you are probably right. Or, I should say, that would make a lot of sense and have a lot of poetic justice.
I’m thinking more along the lines of Black Swan.
I agree with Roubini. We are one accident away from a total collapse.
As for the selling, I think it is margin calls and redemptions. I also think that the traders who are left, for GS and MS, and other large entities such as the insurers know and understand the extent of the derivative nightmare and are selling out of fear for what is coming.
We have had two real crashes in the last century, 1929 and 1987.
Could we be in for another? Sure.
But the odds weigh heavily against.
_____
CAP. My thoughts exactly. There is blood in the proverbial streets. It may trade sideways and drop a bit further, but then it will bounce I believe. I still forsee nothing but sideways action with swings of 25-35% for the next several years (which I will profit from with my devious systems trading and deft market knowledge). Once P/E’s reach single digits, we’ll see a new bull.
this is a must read.
http://www.haysmarketfocus.com/files/NLPP00002/688.pdf
Juice,
You mentioned “Timbo’s blog”. Can you post a link?
CAP I agree the bottom is nearly in. However, I think it is going to happen over the course of a few days, when the Dow shaves off another 2000-3000 points.
To stop the decline, the markets will be halted.
The ensuing run on the banks will be stopped by enforcing a bank holiday.
When the markets open back up, the bottom will be very very near.
Now I’m not a crazy, or a conspiracy theorist, and I’m not prone to fantasy. I’m just speaking from my gut.
Jake,
I will admit that the market action does look similar to the ’87 Crash. But for those with steel-belted nutsacks (like myself), it was the bottom and rocketed back up from there.
Correction:
For those with steel-belted nutsacks who hung in and didn’t dump equities, they caught the updraft right after.
Junk, I never divulged the major modification. When that came about, I stopped writing about the system.
Use your head man. You can figure it out. When you think you’ve got it worked out, for god’s sake don’t post it in the comments section. Email me instead. woodshedder_blogspot at yhoo
Right
John McCain has gone full retard. Tonight he is revealed as a stammering old man.
What the holy fuck was he talking about with the “buy up the mortgages and refinance them at current market value?”
Good god, we are doomed.
Yes but does it make sense to Main street seeing they the skull fuckers and guys who decide this election. And it probably did because main streeters no sweet fuck all about that sort of shit. I thought it don’t make the least sense, but it sounded great.
Chivas, excellent report. Thanks for posting that. You know I live for that type of analysis.
My only beef is that while we may be near a bottom in terms of TIME, we may be far from it in terms of percentage drop, or points lost.
Sure, the bottom may come tomorrow, but will it matter if you called it the day before if it means you have to suffer through a 2000 point loss in order to realize it?
It wouldn’t matter if it gained the entire drop back in a month or 2. There’d be a lot of bushleaguers out there who aren’t as intelligent as yourself. They couldn’t bring themselves to buy after a precipitous drop like that. They’d be scared away from the equities markets for years.
Woody,
you might be right. for the first time since 2003 i am on margin. 120% long, and i run a large fund. if we do get another 2000 points, it would be like getting aquainted with a 20″ dildo without vaseline, ouch.
The Insurance etf is IAK. Most of the insurance companies on the no short list.
Wood, I have to say, you are sounding fucking crazy.
And I agree with you.
I actually called all of my family and close friends and told them to take enough cash out of the ATM to hold them over for a couple weeks and keep it locked away in case of a bank freeze.
And that’s what I’ve done.
If we have a crash I would dump every one of my positions and move it into long calls on the indices. Make back all my losses and probably an additional 50-100% gain.
BTW, How did people who made money in Black Monday 1987 trade ? What was the strategy that day ? Lets say you were 100% long that morning. How long before the indices dropped 5-10-15-20% ? Can anyone walk me through that day. I was too young to remember. Infact I never knew it happened until the 90s.
Chivas,
You are one ballsy dude. I must hand it to you. This is a game of odds. You must play it that way and with an edge. The edge is the statistical probability of a bounce (as noted in the Hays report). Reversion to the mean will occur at extremes. This is an extreme. You may not catch the cunt (can I use this word on this site?) hair at the bottom, but you’ll be damn close. Rock on.
Contractor, I’ve done the same, including buying some canned foods, because once I allowed myself to fully embrace what could happen, it would be pretty stupid to have a bunch of cash, but no food.
CAP,
Read “Market Wizards” by Schwager. The best traders did it differently. It’s a good read.
The reason I ask is because the charts on the Dow look eerily similar to the build up to Black Monday. We were experiencing 5% daily drops the week before. And then BAAAAM Black Monday. Shit thats scary. I am scared now. I think I’ll buy puts tomorrow.
Chivas, only the best to you, my friend.
To be clear, my strategies have quit giving signals. There will be no more signals until we get a bounce. I want a bounce just as much as anyone.
TK,
Thanks but I don’t have time to run over to Borders and get a copy ( It past 9pm here) . And what if the Crash comes tomorrow ? Thats the reason I ask. I wont be sleeping tonite. Watching CNBC Asia and Europe all night.
Yeah Wood, I’ve done the same.
CAP,
Get copies of Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards books, several of the interviewed traders talk about their experiences that day.
In short, some went into the day short and covered at the bottom, others went into the day long, sold on a bounce and went short for the rest of the way down, some scaled into long positions after the first few hundred points, others went long bonds or treasuries in anticipation of a flight to safety.
There were a lot of different strategies that worked that day.
CAP, from what I remember from Schawager’s book referenced by TK, the market moved too fast to get puts, and the spreads where too large.
I’ve actually been thumbing through his books trying to find the passages about 87, but I haven’t found them yet.
Cap,
all hell broke loose after the chairman of the sec at around 1:30, said that maybe they should consider closing the exchange. market dropped 370 additional points fom then on.
Junk,
lol. thanks.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (author of the black swan) was heavily short before the ’87 crash.
The problem is 700-point swings in the Dow like today are simply leaving people asking if the bottom is in yet, instead of striking fear into their hearts. People were afraid on Black Monday, I remember watching it unfold on TV and my college roommate was trading options at the time.
This selloff is so orderly with nice but not spectacular volume, that I just don’t think we’ve had the panic moment that will allow dip buyers to make money. The time is coming, but we need real fear.
I’ve done the same, Shed. Also bought a Remmington shotgun to protect the stash. It’s like the Y2K that no one saw coming, which is the most frightening thing to me. Folks are just waking up to it, and its too late.
Bitter irony: The markets will recover and run just when the shizz really hits regular folks hardest.
______
At work, in Feb, we had a pricing discussion about a project streeting in Nov. I argued for MSRP of 7.99 – 9.99 instead of 13.99+ I argued that we were headed into a terrible econ mess and recession, and the lower price point would behoove us. They mocked me. Retards.
Now they sit in my office and watch CNBC and the carnage. EVEN THE PLANT LADY sat down to watch with me this morn. I like the plant lady cause she gives me handjobs.
Kidding.
She’s not the plant lady.
thanks Woody.
CAP, with options, beware of IV crush.
In other words, you may pay so much for your calls, that you have to unload them very quickly to realize any profit. Holding them until things settle down will most likely result in losses.
Well, what if I sell the spike and go short and that happens to be a bottom ? So I lose both ways.
I figure I Could sell a spike and start buying calls.
How many points down did the market open on Black Monday and what was the highest point it ? I need to get an hour by hour breakdown of the day to figure out strategy.
youtube has the actual news reports of the day of the 1987 crash. they have some great vids on the whole day.
My wife does not approve of the message above. She wanted me to tell y’all that.
Ok it dropped 9% in the first hour and a half.
http://www.greekshares.com/black_monday.php
“On Monday, the Dow dropped about 200 points or 9% in the first hour and half. During the day, most institutional investors implemented various computer-based portfolio insurance programs.
Portfolio insurance was destabilizing because it required selling stock as prices declined. The more stocks fell, the more stocks were sold. As the market did not have the liquidity to support the sales, the stock market fell even further.
Buyers waited, knowing the more the market dropped, the more selling would have to take place. By the end of the day, the Dow had lost 508 points.”
Whats this ‘Portfolio Insurance’ they are referring to ?
selling of s&p futures against long positions.
Coach, she’ll get over it. My wife did, after I posted the picture of her tits in the VIZ shirt.
CAP, I’m just saying that by the time you know the crash is happening, it may be too late. There will be all kinds of failures on the exchanges, bad prints, busted trades, etc.
Unless you have a lot of long positions to hedge, it may be worthwhile to just watch, so you can get it right next time 😉
CAP,
This is no market for you. You need conviction one way or the other. None of this pussy-footing and grab-assing around. You will likely find yourself staring glassy eyed at what you perceive to be a first-class asshat if you try to guess in this market. My advice to you: get in cash. Cash is king if you don’t know what to do.
I need to get an hour by hour breakdown of the day to figure out strategy.
What worked in 1987 probably won’t work in 2008. I think you are spending way too much time and energy trying to nail the bottom.
When the bottom is set, we won’t go up 30 percent in one day, you’ll have days and weeks to enjoy the ride.
If you must play on crash day, though, keep the plan simple.
Buy index futures with wide stops, or buy the double long ETFs. I think the pricing on options will be skewed by all of the volatility and they may not be the best way to play a crash, but then I don’t trade options so I may be wrong. It just seems to me that options have too many other issues and variables that can and will complicate this type of trade.
Just my two cents.
index arbitrage using S&P futures market.
nevermind. thanks chivas
Some traders blamed portfolio insurance; other claimed it that was bullshit. I happen to believe PI played a major part, but what the hell do I know. In ’87 I was busy spray painting obscene words on the bucket of the skid loader behind the local Cargill plant and beating off to computerized images of the tasty ho’s traipsing around on my friend’s “Leisure Suit Larry” video game. Good times…
Oh, and if a crash does occur in one fell swoop, most of us will probably be too scared by what we see on the screen to actually push any buttons on our trading software.
A crash will scare the bejeebers out of everyone but the most hardened and experienced traders. The rest of us need to stand aside and let the dust settle.
No need to martyr ourselves trying to pick the exact low of the move.
Oh, and don’t forget that even if you had the resolve to do anything, you’re computer wouldn’t be of any use as all the broker’s sites would be crashed. Hell, that was the case just a week or 2 ago; and that was hardly crash-like in intensity.
Don’t forget Feb of 07, and all the electronic failures.
A crash will be mesmerizing. You will want to call everybody you know and say, “can you believe this shit?” Then you’ll want to go cry in the bathroom stall, but will go for a 6 mile run instead.
At least that’s what some guy told me.
Tim Knight has some nice charts and commentary re crash potential:
http://slopeofhope.com/2008/10/con_descension.htm
Shed,
Why do you think all hell might breakloose this week rather than next or in a month…?
Fuck, we’re DEFINITELY having a crash now!
I mean, since all y’all are all talking about it …
_____
(turns aside, walks three steps, rolls eyes heavenward…)
__
Whoever is elected will be a one-termer. Someone has to be blamed.
GLORIOUS PEOPLE’S GLORC OF GLORY!
Rock on!
__
This market is tough. I’ve been buying the dips and selling the rips, but that strategy isn’t working anymore. I feel like a fucking amature.
Anything I buy drops 10% right off the bat.
But I can’t stop. I’m like a fucking gambler… I’m still addicted. My fine-grade cocaine has turned into cheapo meth brewed by some fucking midwest redneck. But I’m still lining up for it.
I think I need to sell the rips, and buy the crashes. That might work better.
I’m 100% long, going into tommorow. Fucking hell… I’m scared.
Fly,
Make sure Vincenzo has plenty of petrol on hand for the backup generators for the servers
Jake,
I’m using reverse psychology on Mother Market, so please stop undermining my work, okay?
If I talk about it, then it won’t happen. Think of it as the Jefferson Krull phenomenon. He buys a stock, its goes down. He sells a stock, it goes up.
Or, think of it like the weatherman who predicts a once in a lifetime blizzard for the weekend that causes a run on the local grocery store. They hype the forecast all week, stores run out of food, then nothing happens.
Same thing.
Jake,
I don’t expect a crash but since I was mocking Jim Cramer and his well documented ability to call market bottoms and tops at the exact opposite , I have this sudden foreboding feeling that Jim Booyah Boy will be right this time and will be seen as a stock market God after the crash. Videos of him telling investors to sell everything will be played over and over again. Cramer will eventually receive a Knighthood and be elected President.
Which candidate garnered the GLORC endorsement?
Anyone?
________
Whats GLORC ?
So is this were Fly went for his meeting today?
http://www.wnbc.com/money/17641953/detail.html
I’ll be perfectly content and happy with life if there is no crash and tomorrow we bounce 700 points on the Dow.
I mean, after all, this weekend is homecoming for the alma mater and I’ve got a case of pumpkin ale calling my name.
Doomsday, we are at the edge of a precipice.
Consider that.
At the edge of a cliff, you either fall, or you back the fuck up.
Aha, Billy “Everything I buy goes down 10%” Bob, it must’ve YOU…
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aX7hMsPmi7lU&refer=home
…who bought the Indonesian index yesterday!
(Indonesia opened today, fell 10%, tripped the circuit breakers, and trading is now halted “until further notice”…)
If it’s any consolation, it sucks. I lack The Fly’s time machine, and fucktardedly painted myself into a corner anticipating a tradeable rally that never came. I either get lucky and get out with my skin intact, or the entire system implodes and it doesn’t matter. As a certain God once said, it just isn’t funny anymore. Except that it is, even when I’m the butt of the Market’s jokes. We who live by the crystal ball must be prepared, on occasion, to chew crushed glass.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WEytSTugGY
Look what we are doing in Asia… Just you wait Europe
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/index.html
Look what we are doing in Asia…. Just wait Europe….
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/index.html
Futures Tanking. Down 2%. They just fell off a cliff about 12 minutes ago.
Take a look at Asia.. Europe is up to bat… U.S. on deck
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/index.html
That would be a waterfall they fell off of…. have you checked Asia yet??
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/index.html
Wood,
For some reason I couldnt sleep. I know why now. Markets continue to slide. I was thinking of picking up Pfizer in the morning. I might just stay in cash. Is a world wide halt on trading possible. ?
Anyone watching Bloomberg… she just said Russia is helping to develop a “New world economic order..on now”
There goes Asia…. Europe next….. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia_index.html
I’m watching Bloomberg.
Haven’t seen anything new yet.
Oh wow, the Nikkei shit itself. It’s not pretty.
Moscow financial world capital…. Whats next? Did you miss that story? Nothing earth changing, just thought her choice of words was interesting.
Nikkie, biggest loss in 20 years.
Futures trying to break to new lows, but good volume coming in on the upside.
Implosion day?
Asian markets are fucked and the Aussie just dropped through 70 cents hitting 67.40 cents.
The only reason futures are bouncing is because of the belief that the US simply HAS to do something. Rate cut. Rain dance. Public stonings. Something!
I think tomorrow could be a huge day either way for the U.S. markets… It might be the signaling of a direction, whatever that direction might be….
Like Bloomberg tickers better than CNBC Europe/Asai, but CNBC Europe content is much, much better than Bloomberg Euro. I was traveling last week and missed most of bubble visions coverage, I got used to watching Bloomberg via the web … not bad, but is slow to pick up market movinb news and get it on the air – at least Bloomberg doesn;t have the Brady Bunch boxes with everyone trying to be heard
DPeezy,
Rate cut. Rain dance. Public stonings. Something!
I think I just woke up the whole house.. LMFAO
D,
I think the later might be the best option… espically after the AIG execs taking the “rescue” money to get $3 min massages….
looks like met life was the insurer about to go kaput.
MetLife says will offer 75M shares of common stock
Tuesday October 7, 9:48 pm ET
MetLife says will boost capital position by selling 75 million shares
NEW YORK (AP) — Metlife Inc. said Tuesday it plans to sell 75 million shares of its common stock in a public offering.
The insurer said the offering will boost its capital position and will be used for general business purposes and “potential strategic initiatives.”
It said underwriters will have a 30-day option to buy shares representing an additional 15 percent of the offering amount to cover overallotment. The offering is expected to price on Wednesday.
Credit Suisse Securities is the sole bookrunning manager. Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS Investment Bank will act as joint lead managers.
MetLife’s shares fell $7.45, or 16.8 percent, to $36.87 on Tuesday but rose in after-hours trading, gaining back $1.13, or 3 percent, to $38.00.
thats roughly 20% of the float~! of 456 milliom outstanding.
Looks like MET LIFE is toast.
MetLife says will offer 75M shares of common stock
Tuesday October 7, 9:48 pm ET
MetLife says will boost capital position by selling 75 million shares
NEW YORK (AP) — Metlife Inc. said Tuesday it plans to sell 75 million shares of its common stock in a public offering.
The insurer said the offering will boost its capital position and will be used for general business purposes and “potential strategic initiatives.”
It said underwriters will have a 30-day option to buy shares representing an additional 15 percent of the offering amount to cover overallotment. The offering is expected to price on Wednesday.
Credit Suisse Securities is the sole bookrunning manager. Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS Investment Bank will act as joint lead managers.
MetLife’s shares fell $7.45, or 16.8 percent, to $36.87 on Tuesday but rose in after-hours trading, gaining back $1.13, or 3 percent, to $38.00.
with a float of 456 million shares 75 million is roughly 20% of the float.
MET LIFE ready to die?
MetLife says will offer 75M shares of common stock
Tuesday October 7, 9:48 pm ET
MetLife says will boost capital position by selling 75 million shares
NEW YORK (AP) — Metlife Inc. said Tuesday it plans to sell 75 million shares of its common stock in a public offering.
The insurer said the offering will boost its capital position and will be used for general business purposes and “potential strategic initiatives.”
It said underwriters will have a 30-day option to buy shares representing an additional 15 percent of the offering amount to cover overallotment. The offering is expected to price on Wednesday.
Credit Suisse Securities is the sole bookrunning manager. Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS Investment Bank will act as joint lead managers.
MetLife’s shares fell $7.45, or 16.8 percent, to $36.87 on Tuesday but rose in after-hours trading, gaining back $1.13, or 3 percent, to $38.00.
thats 20% of the float!
Anyone got the charts handy for a 10% Nikkei drop and an earthquake on the same day?
The Japs always panic though. They’re the worst traders/investors of any group in the world. The only problem is that they have a current account surplus which means they fuck up every other country.
Jap housewives getting out of their investments is an ugly ugly thing to watch.
Maybe this UK bank bailout combined with a coordinated rate cut can slow down this crash – looks like the brits will be printing pounds .. hope they make them in cool colors, I mean colours
I’m stayin up just to see what the European markets do for the first few minutes. Get to see those colours. lol
Deanne Julius is one ugly (wo)man. Cut that rate, Deanne!
I vote orange for the new money. Orange, the true color of iBC.
That UK interbank lender backstop should help even if it is only for UK institutions
I think we crash and don’t bounce. We just drift lower for a few years from the crash bottom. The banks that are the anointed ones are short the market with all the money from the FED and are raiding the big treasure…all the 401Ks. We will not get a rate cut to prevent this because the FED wants it to happen. By taking all the 401K money the government will be able to pay out social security benefits. The elitists will be able to buy everything for 5 cents on the dollar and sell it back to the masses for a dollar and get the masses to take out loans to be able to buy and pay the elitists interest on top of getting their principle back. 2 to 3 more generations working and dying for the 1%ers.
Well so much for Europe getting the ball rolling.
And I pass the baton onto thee, Sr.Bernanke. Are you ready to watch/let the markets crash?
Futures are hugging -300 now…
Europe down 7% or so. UK partially nationalizing banks. Things getting worse, no stability in sight.
Conspiracy theory: What if the whole globe melts down such that all the governments have to backstop all of the financial systems, and they blow out all the currencies simultaneously? Then they declare a new global currency, thus resetting all of the outstanding debts? New world order / Star chamber kind of stuff. Probable? No. Laughable? Maybe. Scary? Definitely.
Watching the UK bigwig press conference. I do love the fact that they get asked ‘real’ questions, unlike at our press conferences.
ex.: “If nationalizing the banks is such a great idea, why didn’t you do it 10 years ago? Seems like you’re not forthcoming with the true cost of this to the tax payer.”
______________
I think Paulson should adopt the same title as his British counterpart (Alistair Darling): Chancellor of the Exchequer. It would at least create an illusion of higher intelligence.
______________
That’s some heavy Tyler Durden shit there, Prospectus.
I am afraid this market will get no quarter until late next week.
look; Stop the bullshit talk about what the market is going to do this week. Start taking a big picture look at companys with cash and a good balance sheet. If you trade [trade small with tight stops]. Do stuff like putting in low limit orders at the open on ETF’s. Also watch currency ETF’s. Cash is still king. Stay COOL fuckers. You can’t think right when you try to guess how low the market will go. Do not try to get money back you lost. Again stay cool and be positive.
GLORC me !!!!!!!
Thar she blows (with global cuts).
Now what?
GLORC is here! CNBC is reporting 50 bps coordinated rate cut including the Fed.
Finally some coordinated response.
This is Jake’s moment.
Thanks God ! Now I can dump that long trade .. PHEW! Not too mention Gold/Silver will go thru the roof! Gold will attack 2008 highs & blow past 1000 in 2009.
China cuts !
GLORC on, Garth!
Silly. Had they waited 4 more hours to announce this, we could have made a decent bottom.
-DT
I’d look for a 1 – 2 day fierce rally up to resistance, wherever that is; SPX 1100? who knows … we’re flying by the seat of our pants, TA out the window, sort of…. Then short the crap out of the crap. Like comm re … the economy is toast .. this will show up on the street in 2009 and it will be bad, real bad … Mad Max type shit, in some places.
DT- I agree. The timing sucked and should have been a full point cut. Should have waited for a market gap down at least. I remeber the Tues. after 10/19/87 when the PPT was buying like crazy (about 11 AM) but now where is BSC,LEH; MS and MER and GS are weak.
Yeah, I mean, on one hand, I’m happy because I was gonna be short if they did this midday and I would have been massively squeezed, but on the other, they just can’t step in and with a switch, change market psychology.
They need to be a little more subtle, and let shit play out.
If we’ve learned anything in the last few months, it’s that the numbers are completely useless and that it’s confidence that makes a market work.
The fear needs to crescendo before it can recede. It’s like they keep putting off the fear. The fucking market will bounce for real if they just let it be.
-DT
Joke of the Morning: Citi cuts F and GM to a sell.
DT, no real bottoms are made with gov/fed intervention.
I’m looking for 1150 only because every bear market rally goes farther than I expect.
In Soviet America, GLORC cuts YOU!!
There’s so much uncertainty with all these cuts, bailouts, non-bailouts, congressional votes, takeover/unders, short sales bans, etc, etc, that the markets don’t know WTF is going on anymore, or what will happen next. The Fed and the Government keep intervening in fits and starts. That means uncertainty. And the only thing you can do for uncertainty is to discount for it. Down more we go.
What a bunch of jackholes running the world. They know they will have to bail out EVERYTHING and guarantee EVERYONE’s deposits before the end of this. If they’d just come out and nationalize it all right now, then the crisis would stabilize, but this nickel and dime bullshit hasn’t worked, and is not going to work.
IMO.
Futures spiked to over 3.5%. Now, they have given up those gains and are hovering around 1.25% gains. I bet that is eroded over the next couple of hours and we still open negative.
Anon,
Yes, that’s my point. I wanted the market to open this morning, sell off, feel the pain and bottom out. If after we got there, they cut rates, then so be it, but let us get there first.
I was unclear. I wasn’t saying that I wanted the market to open, go down and be “saved” by the rate cut… I was hoping for real pain, stabilization much lower, and then, if they’re going to announce a cut, announce it then.
-DT
I had to get up early and see if I had a new polo sweater under the tree. Anything?
Back to bed, then. The world is in good hands…
Lest you take me for a communist socialist back-door yak-humper, I would prefer no government interaction at all. The interaction should have come 3 years ago, when the criminals at the SEC should have done their jobs instead of following me around checking for 25k for daytrades. Now all the meddling has made things worse. BUT–since they are going to do “something”, they will do the least amount of collateral damage if they do it all and do it now. Again IMO.
My bet is on Wood’s comment. All our fearful leaders have done, confidence-wise, is convince the world that any move up has to be sold.
Now back to bed.
Everyone already knows the real cost of borrowing is less than 1.5%.
This is a dog and pony show, meant to keep the masses from lighting torches and marching on Washington. “But please good people, we did EVERYTHING we could do…”
Panic is in the air.
Congrats to Jake and Chivas!
Bad News Bear- I heard that comment by the female Moscow reporter on Bloomberg last night as well. Something about Moscow wanting to set itself up as the new financial capital of the world.
LIBOR is UP on news of GLORC??
But sooth! What
Light through yonder curtain breaks?
Tis GLORC, and it is also the sun!
A fuckin’ half-point is not enough. But the
timing is fine- we don’t need a big “upside
reversal” day to change course. A 1% rate cut
would have insured a 1000-point up close.
With the 1/2 cut we will see a modest rally,
then sideways to down over the next two weeks.
Futures turned south again
TC- that is great.
Jake did you GLORC this morning..How many times do you GLORC a week? I try and GLORC everyday is my goal.
GLT GLORCER’S
Hey Juice, today will be the day to get 200% long 🙂
Let this shit drop till you’re ready to throw up and then go for it.
Boy,
The futures are sagging. What does this mean. I guess they haven’t heard fly covered his shorts yesterday.
Bought 8k BAC 19.70.
Engine room, we need more GLORC.
I bet the market still heads south today. The rate cut will have no affect. In all seriousness what does a rate cut do ? Does it really unclog the credit system ?
What the FED should have done was raised rates by half a point and threaten to raise another half point each time the Dow drops another 100 points lower. In some Constanza-like way this would have probably stabilized markets. Rate cuts haven’t worked so far so might as well raise them.
So the trade IMO is to sell any spike today and go short. We will still close red.
Nanu-nanu. Shazbot!
No bullets left!
Stupid timing. Let the doom begin.
-DT
Futures dwon 200! Shazbot!
The futures’ up move had to reverse because The Fly needed to sell his inverse ETFs at a greater profit than he had already booked.
And one more thing to add to the list from “Gone are the days…” the thread from a while back:
…when relief rallies lasted at least until the opening ball.
Prospectus, you have it RIGHT!
The way out of this financial mess is to let the big banks and brokers holding $60 tril of bad paper FAIL, Fed paying off only INSURED
depositors up to the federally insured limit.
Why let those banks and brokers fail? Because they owe that bad paper TO EACH OTHER, and if they fail, those bad debts disappear.
Here is what should be done:
1. No buying of bank-broker bad paper by the
US government. No lawsuits allowed that involve those banks, brokers, depositors or paper.
2. The government sets up totally NEW banking entities using buildings, CLEAN computers and low level operating personnel of failed banks.
Government issues the new banks capital that they can loan out in mortgages at a fixed 5% – 20 year, 20% down payment rate. They also can loan to SOLVENT existing businesses for operations, or new business WITH COLLATERAL.
3. Maximum bank leverage is 100% of capital. Banks cannot loan more than their initially capitalized amount plus the amount of their new deposits. They CAN’T borrow from each other.
4. The new banks have minimal management, with the bank president paid $100,000 with NO BONUS, and the next management level $75,000.
We don’t NEED no Criminal banks and brokers!
…bell. Opening bell that is.
Musta been a freudian slip from having my balls flayed wide open and hearing Nurse Market’s play “Dueling Banjos” on ’em.
Onward and downward towards Mad Max.
Well the rate cut was their last bullet. It didn’t stop the grizzly bear from charging. Now just fall down and play dead.
We did have capitulation last night though – political capitulation – Jake realized that both candidates are clueless
fuckbailouts
More gay opinions.
This is going to be epic.
Homies may be a good scalp long at 9:59:45 just before the home sales report. The worse is built into the price (I think).
j
Go fuck youself and get back to your hourly
ritual masturbation.
Sept Retail Sales: [[JCP]] -12.4%. Xmas 2008 is officially canceled.
Jon Doctor J Najarian
08:10:38 AM
10 to 0 Unanimous Vote To Cut Rates, ECB, BOE, Bank of Canada All Join!
*
10 to 0 Unanimous Vote, ECB, BOE, Bank of Canada All Join! The FOMC voted 10 to 0 to cut rates this morning. They cut the Discount Rate 50 basis points to 1.75 percent, and the Fed Funds rate 50 basis points to 1.50 percent. The FTSE has turned to positive in reaction and had been down 5 percent. ECB statement: “Inflationary pressures have begun to moderate In several countries, easing of monetary conditions is therefore warranted”
* Want Another Sign Of A Bottom? Tobias Levkovich, market analyst for Citigroup, just turned from the most bullish to the most bearish analyst in a single day! Bloomberg tracks 9 senior market strategists for outlook and sentiment and reports that Levkovich made his turn yesterday based on the credit crisis and a slowing global economy.
MV News
07:30:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Roll Call!
According to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey, bullish sentiment fell to 25.3% from 33.7% last week, bearish sentiment surged to 53.0% from 47.2% last week, and those expecting a correction rose to 21.7% from 19.1% last week.
Anonynous;
I think today will be the start of the total dump. With the short sale rule back on I don’t see a big bounce until next week. I hope we don’t start trading in swing trading mode. Thats like having sex with no orgasm.
No need, fuckbailouts as I’m happily married.
But seriously, your opinions are stale, and gay….. very very gay in fact.
No one’s interested doofus and even a quick glance shows that the presenter is a complete idiot….. and very gay.
That SMH is a pig (flying on upside).
Shake, shake, shake.
Shake, shake, shake.
Sheik D’jabouti.
Sheik D’jabouti, baybeeee.
___
Can you believe I had a morning meeting this morning?
What are these fucking clients thinking?
They’re all like, “Jake, why do you keep clutching your ballz like that?”
“Have you an athlete’s fungus?”
_____
Bought SDS on the gap fill.
anyone know what is up with SRS?
I can’t get a quote on e trade?
GLORC taking her vengeance on the unbelievers!
_____
Jake- I used to keep a Quotreck (B&W) screen at my table when in Court, hidden by by attaché case so when I was in Court I could follow the market. I didn’t use it when I had a client sitting next to me however.
I’m sure the Judge though I was Bi-Polar when I would keep looking up and down at him every thirty seconds.
Well the question is was that 200 point down open enough to flush sellers out ? My guess is no. If I had balls I would be shorting here. Unfortunately the market ate by balls the last 2 days.
TC–
That must have been tough. At least I’m in a financial business… most of the lawyers I deal with are clueless (and worse, commies).
_______