Across the board, I blew out of equities today. It doesn’t really matter what the fundamentals or cost basis is; it’s done. I have no desire to play a game of political chicken with moronic corn cob fuckers.
It’s very hard to play the next move. Logic dictates the market will crash through the fucking floor boards, as the best and biggest financial system crumbles into very small pieces of fuckery. However, do not doubt the assholish of Congress and their ability to vote again and win!
Geez, we could be up 1,000 on a new bailout win.
Nonetheless, it makes sense to cut losses here and wait for things to settle down. Or, if you are unable to liquidate, at the minimum, get long some [[SKF]] , [[FXP]] or [[SRS]] .
Personally, this is a very disheartening day. I nailed the credit crisis from day 2 (JakeGint nailed day 1) and have been positioned for such an egregious day, for more than a year—until last week. Fuck, I even changed the header on my blog to indicate my newly minted bullish tone.
Aside from physically abusing people around me, I have accepted my loss, like a NY Met, and will move on to repair damage.
Remember, during times like this it’s important to limit risk. The downside to the indices are still severe. We can see the Dow slip another 2,000 points, easy. The credit markets are insane, as people with money pile into treasuries. If you are out there, gambling like a fucking Atlantic City alcoholic, I commend your endowment.
Unfortunately, for me, Bob Steele cut my balls off with a ginsu knife, with special assistance from the commodity, tech and credit market ape rapers.
NOTE: Commerical Re stocks should continue to slide, as borrowing costs increases. With that in mind, [[SRS]] is a fucking golden parachute.
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Fly deal with it. You cry and complain to much!!!
Youre the man FLY !!!!
Fly,
Is it me or is SRS acting strangely?
The Fly will bitch and complain and yet he is still up 50% for the year. Odd no ?
Thumbs up Republicans. Great job!! Off to buy some Ramen…
When was the last time the Nasdaq was down over 9% ? Anyone ?
Something tells me this is all part of the plan. Vote against the bailout, try to flush the market longs out, then approve the bailout and get the Dow to rocket 1500 points in a week.
I’d get the fuck out of SRS and SKF. If the banking system implodes, the swaps they depend on won’t be worth the paper they’re written on.
Bluedog — Is Hastert running Congress?
No, it’s the Biatch, and she’s yours. Live it up, buddy.
(You should’ve been short anyway, ya big baby)
__
Fly… What’s your take year to date after today?
Cap — it’s gotta be the biggest one day plungerooni since the dot-com meltdown… earliest.
Cap — w/ regard to “the plan.”
Tread carefully, this is not the time to be getting mythological.
Let them run it up a bit before you take your decision.
(or down).
_
Ha…. 777… That’s good luck right??
Fuck everyone on this thread.
Correction, Jake- no one is running congress.
Fly- What’s your YTD gain as it stands right now? Are you still winning, even though you appear to be losing?
Will MVIS perish or survive in this environment? They announced some cool improvements to their PicoP in Japan
EBBC —
Options and futures are what the ultras use, if I’m not mistaken.
Swaps are credit instruments.
_______
Jake,
I figure so. Down 9% for the day. Thats F*CKIN insance ! You’d think the Nasdaq was the Baghdad stock market index or something. Down 9.14% ! Crazy stuff …..
New bailout bill on the way!
This one will include a provision to blow the shit out of more brown people in Iran! Guaranteed the Repubs will pass it!
Fuck all the whining pussies begging for government handouts.
Fuck everyone on this thread.
This may be the first one of these I’ve seen since you switched to the new website!
(Bottoming action?)
_
Dow down 777 ? That has to be a joke. I turned of CNBC at the close with it down 603. Must have been lotsa imbalances.
Guys this has to be ‘The Bottom’ . When was the last time you saw such an insane sell off and it wasn’t the bottom
(at least an intermediate bottom) ?
I’m going long tomorrow provided we don’t open up 300.
Nasdaq off 9.14% is unreal. How the fuck did I pull off 3 winning Nasdaq futures trades all to the long side? Oh I know, technicals.
EBBC — try not to get egregiously bitter. You fucked up, take personal responsibility.
It’s the Republican way.
<a href=http://www.bbc.co.uk/radioassets/photos/2007/7/13/24170_2.jpg)(cheesy grin)
__
Off to get an egregious allergy shot to deal with this valley living.
__
cheezy grin
Odd no?
_____
CNBC is retarded.
Took a shot at rimm today via Jan calls. Panic in the air like never before. Have not and would not touch common stock in anything. Options only way to control downside risk. Rather lose 100% of $10,000 then 20% of $600,000.
I wonder what would happen if the market never closed ever anywhere in the world. Would prices be more crazy, because they can never hold steady, or would people not trading often and the volume being spread out mean less volitility?
I’m thinking, in some sense, days like today after the bell rings, that if it hadn’t, the market would continue to plunge. But on the market open, everyone presses the sell button, and they have limited time to sell, so there might be more dumpoff potential to sell the crap out of a stock on earnings or before it.
Reason I’m wondering, is because I could see the sec randomly trying stuff like this, or doing the opposite, and say you only get 3 trading days a month… Or even, “only 3 trades are allowed per day for the retail investor….
crazy stuff is going to happen.
Erin Burnett’s Booty Call Says:
I’d get the fuck out of SRS and SKF. If the banking system implodes, the swaps they depend on won’t be worth the paper they’re written on.
Most of the swaps are with UYG and URE.
Headline reads:
Free market wins, wall street loses. No soup for you!
If no credit was allowed, ever, the US would find largely that it doesn’t even really exist that much. But hey, at least we would have a bunch of stuff that people demand back, right? Stuff that we could use against them. They sell us the weaponry that we use on them
everyone, listen. do what i am doing tonight.
I am going to get a case of Octoberfest, and then bet heavily on Monday Night Football
The market’s about as free as a dog with an electric collar on, while it’s surrounded by a 1 ft by 1ft electric fence
Honestly, if you are trading this market, you’d better have inside information or a titanium set of balls.
Shorts are not allowed. The stock market rallies and falls on every single vote on a piece of legislation. Banks are nationalized and wiped out on thursday nights. Property rights (order of liquidation anyone? sucks to be a WaMu senior debtholder) are abrogated and seized by the gov’t cheese makers, then redistributed to upright walking pigs.
It is said that it is best to be fearful when others are greedy, and vice versa. Years back, you may look back on this moment and wish you had invested 95% of your portfolio in names that look toxic as hell.
I for one am staying the fuck out of this. I don’t know the rules here. The possibility of making a few tens of thousands off of this in my bullshit 5 figure trading account is not even close to the very real risk of losing every dime.
You all might as well withdraw a couple thousand from your bank account right now and go bet on horses. You’d be getting about the same odds you are now.
No, Uncle, let me read that headline to you:
Nobody wins! Soup lines for you!
McSame is now McBlame.
I told him we needed my pastor to chase away the witches…he didn’t listen.
I just bumped him off the ticket and my running mate is now Pastor Muthee.
Fly, after the panic at WaMu, you should have seen the writing on the walls. however, Steele cut my balls of also with his dull rusty razor blade.
Bottom is in Tuesday down big and reverse…should be good till Jan when newly elected retards begin to learn how to vasoline us for the new year….
We needed it. Without it, the stock market will now reflect a series of assumptions:
1. worldwide economic collapse;
2. a depression that is a sequel equal to the Great Depression;
3. many, many more bank collapses than we have had already; and
4. much more unemployment and many, many foreclosures.
I still believe that they can pick up the pieces somehow, but I cannot hide my thoughts that we have an economic disaster on our hands and the only weapon we had created was the mortgage plan.
— James J. Cramer
September 29th 2008
Vote on my poll… will the Dow Get Under 10,000 in 2008?
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/?p=2062
That’s 365 points away, but you know what… the river card is yet to be flipped.
Oh wait, the government is playing Pokeman Cards. I smell a rate cut summon.
shrugs and says: Fuck it, you want me to bail out the people who caused this clusterfuck?
All the while dodd mumbles to angelo- here’s your throat back, thanks for the loan.
Hey. Longs cheer up. It’s called turnaround Tuesday for a reason. Been there done that.
Well, that’s my new low of the day. I hate to agree w/Cramer.
Posted this from Dan FitzPatrick on Danny’s blog, for anybody interested. He’s been right a lot lately, tho his timing isn’t always great:
http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/1498.cfm
Cramer may actually start crying on his show today. Can’t wait.
In case you’re interested:
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll674.xml
Looks pretty much like a bi-partisan rejection. Dems: 60-40; gop: 33-66
I believe this is the first Dem press conference I have seen in weeks re: the plan where they haven’t sniped at the Repubs. So there is hope.
Hey give the Jewish reps a beeper and they can skip out of Temple for the vote. I don’t think God would mind.
lol @ Gio: “rate cut summon”.
I have a feeling that the 10k is a magical number…the PPT (the other one) has its guns ready to fire at 10k, buying anything & everything in sight.
Turnaround Tuesday followed by flatline until a decision is passed on the 2nd coming of the bill.
Or I’m completely wrong and we go to 0.
Jake,
You know, I promised myself not to engage you anymore, but if “it’s the Republican way” to take responsibility, how about taking some responsibility for the last 8 years?
And who’s the President? Where’s the VP? Haven’t seen that Dick in over a year. The Repubs were to deliver half their votes today AND THEY FAILED.
Yes, take responsibility.
-DT
I think Cheney passed away about six months ago and they are keeping his body frozen next to Ted Williams and Walt Disney. Then, if they need Cheney’s vote to break a tie the PPT will drag his body up to The Hill and prop him up.
Lehman lives!
Neuberger sold to Bain Capital
I have “people” at Bain, Fly, if you want me to put in the good word.
___
DT,
Can we call a moratorium on the political stuff and agree that the “leadership” of both parties should be sent to a gulag for reeducation? Not talking moral equivelancy, just that this is a distraction that doesn’t make anybody any money.
Personally, I find one of the best things about being a limousine liberal is the limousine. And at this rate I will soon be forced to downsize to a Prius town car and frequent the charities to which I once made donations.
Let’s get back to reading the tea leaves. Fuck the politics.
Hey, that was me who wrote that not Anon. What’s with this site.
While I am at it bring back karma buttons.
I just realized I spelled “Pokemon” wrong. Phew! That’s a good thing for me.
Dick Cheney lives in Dubai now. Works out of Halliburtons new HQ. He’s more popular there than he is here.
Dino Commie — I take full responsibility for the Repubs not signing on to that shitty bill.
Do you take full responsibility for Barney and Dodd protecting Fannie and Fred’s egregious leverage and “Community Reinvestment” (read “Alt-A Sub Prime party) to the awful detriment of the country?
Do you take responsibility for Dodd’s Countrywide dealings, including his under market loan from Angelo? Do you take responsibility for Nancy’s pissy act today? For her calling the ‘Pubs “unpatriotic” (lol, the irony) for not going to a meeting to which they were not invited?
Do you take responsibility for the very Dems who did not back Botox Nan and the bill?
Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Back to your 150 share a day trading habit. Be gone.
________
I guess it’s better that the Dow closed down 777 instead of 666.
Cheney would actually make a pretty good camel jockey in Dubai.
I am still having trouble fathoming it .. Nasdaq down 199 points 9.14% on the day….wow. I am buying QLD in size ….
Sucks – sorry you missed on this. But who could have known – trading is like playing Russian Roulette these days.
Second thought, DT & Jake w/dueling pistols at 10 paces.
Make it 5 paces. Wouldn’t want you guys to miss.
Warning the following reflects NO Market analysis and is meant for Cathartic Purposes ONLY. Please take the children out of the room now:
We needed it. Without it, the stock market will now reflect a series of assumptions:
1. worldwide economic collapse;
Fuck you, Jim Cramer!
2. a depression that is a sequel equal to the Great Depression;
Fuck you, Jim Cramer!
3. many, many more bank collapses than we have had already; and
… hold the fuck on! … Fuck you, Jim Cramer! Okay…
4. much more unemployment and many, many foreclosures.
Fuck you, Jim Cramer!
I still believe that they can pick up the pieces somehow, but I cannot hide my thoughts that we have an economic disaster on our hands and the only weapon we had created was the mortgage plan.
– James J. Cramer
September 29th 2008
Double-“BooYahs” Fuck you all to Hell, Jim Cramer!
Fuck off & Die!
__
Didn’t Cramer endorse WB last week when the CEO was on?
I can’t recall.
Jim Cramer being so bearish is VERY good news for the bulls. Last time he was bearish was around mid to late August of 2006 around the time the Dow moved from 11,000 to 14,000 in 9 months.
As much as I agree with your last line, Jake, I agree with much of the dwarf’s assessment. World markets seem to, as well.
But you can do better than that rant if you disagree.
Cap, my thinking exactly.
I just go back to his weeping a year ago last summer about “if the Fed doesn’t cut, we’re all fucking dead!”
Well the Fed cut, and cut again, you cheezy fuck, and look where we are now.
He’s the first to do the herky jerky off the end of the gibbet, come the revolution.
_______
“I’d get the fuck out of SRS and SKF. If the banking system implodes, the swaps they depend on won’t be worth the paper they’re written on.”
Worth repeating even though I hold some.
Larry Find says: ‘Congress is playing with Fire!’
‘Says not a bailout for Wall Street…YOU MORONS…now we fuck you all.’
In the end, Blackrock wins, Obama wins and the hayseed Repubs that gor their feelings hurt and voted ‘nay’ lose in November anyway.
Keep in mind that stocks are coming down due to hedge fund redemptions due to quarter end. Tomorrow will be selling exhaustion followed by a nice rally the remainder of the week.
<a href=”http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/3093705/Financial-crisis-Hedge-funds-face-record-redemptions.htmlOne hedge fund said: “We’ve produced 15 per cent returns for 10 years. This year has been bad and our funds under management have been reduced from $2billion to just $300m. This is decimation.””
This market is still overvalued.
Long gold/short emerging markets, pray that the Fly doesn’t take a day job, and late tonight read my letters to Engels’ smokin’ hot wife on the internets.
One hedge fund said: “We’ve produced 15 per cent returns for 10 years. This year has been bad and our funds under management have been reduced from $2billion to just $300m. This is decimation.”
Anton. There’s only a small number of banks that are fucked. They should auger in, and allow the good banks to “carry on.”
Don’t believe the hype.
The medicine may kill the patient, ovah heah.
(Insert third cliche here at your leisure)
__
Cap, tecnically, if they were decimated, they’d only be out $200 million, rather than $1.7 bn.
Looks more like those fuckers were noncimated.
________
Long gold/short emerging markets,
Holy schite, less the wooing of Engels’ wife, Karl Marx has appropriated the Jake game plan!
__
Jake- I think you’re going to see a flurry in the banks in the next few weeks, if not outright failures, quite a few are going to be bought out (pending gummint regs).
Amended statement:
In the end, Blackrock wins, Obama wins and the hayseed Repubs that
gor their feelings hurtlistened to their constituents and voted ‘nay’loseretain their seats in November anyway.Someday, have someone with the patience for it explain politics to you, kid.
______
Jake,
You’re not even a fucking trader for chrissakes. Fuck off.
-DT
Juan — I think you are correct.
Failures and buyouts. The buyouts will not be pretty.
__
You sure it was Larry Find who said that and not Larry Fine (Moe, Larry and Curly).
You’re not even a fucking trader for chrissakes. Fuck off.
And yet, I cleaned out your IRA, 401-k’s, variable insurance policies and shitty “trading accounts” today.
Odd, no?
__
Now back to your desktop “trading Empire,” loser.
___
Jake,
How about, “We’ve just got to go out and play one game at a time?” Just about any sports cliche can be used at this point.
I know what you’re saying, but if nobody’s lending for things like, oh, making payroll or routine business expenses (McDonald’s supposedly got turned down on a routine loan for buying kitchen equip yesterday), we’ll have more unemployment and even worse housing defaults.
Credit crisis continues, more communities lose tax rev plus suffer as homes are abandoned. Prolonged, deep downturn. I don’t care if you call depression or recession. And at some point, dollar denominated assets become too corrosive to hold, so we have further selloff from int’l investors.
“Price discovery” takes years as US assets dribble, plummet, then dribble lower still. This fucked up plan, as fucked as it was, put some floor to this.
BTW, “He’s (Cramer) the first to do the herky jerky off the end of the gibbet, come the revolution.” — Niiiiice.
But that’s going to be one crowded gibbet,
Jake,
I’m net short, sold C @ 20.88 for $2.1 and not a ‘kid’…but most of these hayseeds are going to LOSE in November if they don’t change their vote. So, they WILL. Wall Street and the Repub. Senators from their states will make sure it as pension/mutual funds get axed for another 25%. F their remaining stubborn constituents living on Fritos, beer and cigs paycheck to paycheck…they were never relevant anyway.
Blackrock (Mr. Fink) and Buffett always win…and they both back you know who.
Do the Herky Jerky? Classic.
I almost hate to break the atmosphere of gloom, but I get a good feeling about Lucky Sevens. Even without any congressional action, could get a little dead cat bounce going ovah heah.
Anton said:
“Price discovery” takes years as US assets dribble, plummet, then dribble lower still. This fucked up plan, as fucked as it was, put some floor to this.
I disagree. In fact, I think price discovery is far better facilitated by allowing the lucky few with capital to purchase the shit at rock bottom prices, thereby setting a true floor, and quickly!
__
I think price discovery is far better facilitated by allowing the lucky few with capital to purchase the shit at rock bottom prices, thereby setting a true floor, and quickly!
Right on Jake – just change “lucky” to “prudent, responsible, didn’t use the house as a fucking ATM machine to buy cheap chinese junk”.
Boca,
I love the optimism. There’s got to be a pony in here somewhere!
___________________
Jake,
Even in the scenario you suggest, I fear it’s gonna be a chunky, slow-motion train crash until everybody abandons dollar denominated assets, then a big whoosh down. But even if it’s as “quick” as pulling off a band-aid, along with the arm it’s attached to, do you really think those “rock bottom prices” are going to be a bargain if there are no jobs and the US has lost its influence in the world?
Your kids could be our age by the time we recover from that kind of a bottoming out. Remember, in Mad Max, both Humongous and the “good guys” were pretty well wiped out. All that was left down there were cockroaches like the one who stumbles into this blog lately. Cautionary tale, Jake.
This fucked up plan, as fucked as it was, put some floor to this.
By trying to put a floor underneath asset prices, you simply postpone the inevitable. Japan had a 10-year recession because they refused to let banks go bankrupt, they refused to let asset prices find an equilibrium between supply and demand, they refused to let their bubble economy pop.
Bubbles must be popped, it doesn’t matter if the bubble is in tulips, tech stocks, or housing. When prices reach an extreme and unsustainable level, then the only way to solve the problem is to let them fall, and the fall is always painful.
The only question is this, do you want to take all the pain now so we can start rebuilding over the next few years, or do you want to drag it out and lose those years of opportunity?
Those are the only two choices we have because the bubble will be popped and the price will be paid. There is no other way.
Anton, my pessimism has yet to reach such levels.
I think this is a painful repricing, but a necessary one. I don’t think the wheels are going to fly off the entire economy unless the gummint does something stupid a la the 1930’s, like restrict the money supply, close the trade lanes*, or raise taxes on capital and income*.
_______________
(* Yes, I realize two out of three of these are “Barry Suggestions.” Let’s hope he wises up.)
__
do you really think those “rock bottom prices” are going to be a bargain if there are no jobs and the US has lost its influence in the world?
Everyone is assuming the bailout plan would work. Those assumptions are not necessarily accurate. The simple fact is, no one knows if the $700 billion will have the intended impact.
For me, that is one of the biggest hurdles the plan’s proponent’s have to overcome. Quite likely, we will spend $700 billion and the markets will crash anyway due to a slowing global economy.
Passing the plan will not in any way, shape, or form repeal the business cycle.
I’m not very optimistic or pessimistic right now, just waiting to see what Congress does by the end of the week before deciding whether we’re going to hell in a handbasket or we can work it out. In the meantime, people still know how to read, so I’ll be able to keep eating.
Dogwood,
The plan — and I am not shilling for this p.o.s. — would have bought these assets and let them unwind slowly over years during which prices would, theoretically, rise with the slow improvement of the economy.
With no plan — and this thing was as close to no plan as you can get for $700 billion — the rest of the world has to think hard about their commitment to being invested in the US. And when that money leaves, the bottom is a long way down.
While Japan is a valid example, so, too, is Sweden in the early 90s. They invested about 4% of their GDP in a similar bailout and recovered, even with a much less dynamic economy than ours.
“Popping” the bubble isn’t the only option.
Still very much in favor of the “herky jerky off the gibbet solution,” btw.
Just got off the phone with my old man, to see how my inheritance was holding up…”CDs in 12 different banks”, Fuck you equity clowns!
Dogwood,
Well said!
Everyone…
The pain will pass and before you know it stocks will be the last thing on everyone’s mind – we’ll be banking coin all over again!
For now… It’s Monday night football – best investment going!
Fuck the banks. Let the financial system and the dollar collapse. I have my new form of currency . Its called a Desert Eagle. I go dine at RuthsChris and they bring the check..I pull out my Desert Eagle. I go to my favorite retail store and buy a pair of True Religion jeans and they ring me at the register, I pull out my Desert Eagle to
pay’. I go to the grocery store and ‘pay’ for the groceries using my Desert Eagle. Going forward , the Desert Eagle is going to be a preferred form of currency even more valuable than say an AMEX Black card.
Well said Dogwood. Lost opportunity over the next couple of years or so will be way more expensive (as a country and as a trader) than just getting it over with.
Another great thing about the Desert Eagle is its universal acceptance. Anywhere I go, the Desert Eagle is an acceptable form of payment. No body questions your credit worthiness once you flash that Desert Eagle of yours….
Crash the Market and Monopolize It
Our theory is a market crash has been orchestrated or organically allowed to happen. Read our story on the OTC market and you can clearly see how safeguards were prevented by the New York Fed. Like a good ‘ole Western shootout the hedge funds are the ranchers and the large banks are the money men. Some will be sacrificed, but the key families/banks will remain in play. You get the ranchers to kill each other off then snap up their property.
Read more at:
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/2008/09/crash-market-and-monopolize-it.html
CAP,
FINALLY someone on this thread with a sensible solution! There’s a Ruth’s Chris two blocks from me. Meet me after I’ve had a chance to drop by the gun shop. Dinner’s on me!
I think it’s time we pay a visit and be louder than the idiots saying they didn’t want to bail em out.
Jake,
…noncimated
great.
Today was the beginning of my campaign strategy for Mr. McCain. The GOP is not stupid. We have been playing this game a long time. We know very well that if this ends as it is now, we will have lost the presidency. SO, the plan fails due to a “split” republican party. Now for MY plan. John McCain will head to Washington tonight or tomorrow. He will rally the GOP and tell them to get their act together. The bill gets passed on Friday. John McCain has demonstrated his ability to lead and rally Washington to put aside their partisan beliefs for the common good. Hero McCain.
GTM,
Does your “theory” involve never-seen-before photos of Hank Paulson on the grassy knoll?
Aluminum foil hats?
Xenu and the space aliens running the world from area 51 in cahoots with international Jewry, the IMF and the People Who Put Flouride In Our Water?
Crazy times call for crazy links, I guess.
CAP, the Desert Eagle, now there’s a solution most ibc’ers can get behind. Good one.
Anton, there’s a guy on Ebay selling silver bars (10 ouncers) that supposedly come from Area 51. I think he meant it humorously, but he’s getting the equivalent of $26 per ounce for the silver. Somewhere there’s a lesson in that, but I’m not sure yet what it is.
Boca, Area 51 provenance or not, I bet we can get those bars for considerably less than $26/oz. with the prestige and negotiating power of…
The Desert Eagle.
Anton,
I understand the positions would be unwound over several years, but why not let the companies put them into a separate entity, off-balance sheet if necessary, and let the companies unload the positions over the next several years?
If you eliminate the mark-to-market requirement, you also take care of the capitalization problems the banks are running into.
I just think there are ways to alter the regulatory environment that would allow the private sector to do what needs to be done without putting tax dollars in play. It may not be as clean a break for the companies, but I think it is preferable from a taxpayer perspective.
What’s going to happen if GDP shrinks by a third, along with tax revenues, and the U.S. is no longer able to service it’s debt obligations?
this is great:
cramer practically crying on his show;
haines bitch-slapping don luskin;
bartiromo blowing up without knowing her mic was still on;
some idiot politician that has no business in public office wanting to have the courts rewrite mortgages.
-what football game?
Anyone here have any soup recipes? I just loaded up on Tomato soup.
Dogwood,
Understood. That sets up a different problem, but perhaps not as egregious as diluting our currency by $700+ billion. But congress is about to wander off for vacation having done nothing. I didn’t see the teevee much today, but was anybody suggesting the plan you describe as an alternative to a bailout?
It seems that with nothing done, and Hank & Bernie resorting to shorting bans and every other patch they can put on the balloon, we are in a very vulnerable position right now. And not just economically.
gapping,
I understand that McDonald’s ketchup packets, obtained gratis, if you take my meaning, make a lovely tomato soup.
But hurry; I understand they’re having trouble getting financing for their condiments. Warren Buffet is considering a condiment “bridge loan” to McDonald’s @ 25% interest against 50% of the company.
lol @ Aris. No kidding.
Contractor,
Who’s going to come and collect if we, as a nation, flake on those debts?
We have more Desert Eagles than anyone.
Soup lines for me? I don’t think so. My theme song:
theme song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4s0nzsU1Wg
Anton-
But we don’t have any oil….
But with Desert Eagles, we can get all the oil we need…
Actually, I saw Mark Haines punch Don Luskin’s mustache off. No kidding.
Oops, wait a minute, we tried that already.
Nancy Pelosi is out of touch with reality – she cannot resist being a demorat for a minute. She apparently thought she had the vote in the bag? Birney Frink needs to be prosecuted for his crimes. The market probably dropped a trillion today? Two or three trillion since last year? Housing must be down 3 or 4 trillion from the top?
Nay!
Anton-
If only it were that easy!
Contractor,
Our GDP is not going to shrink by one-third.
If it did, we will all have bigger problems to worry about than repaying debts. Hell, there won’t be anyone to repay them to because if the U.S. economy shrinks by one-third, everyone else collapses more.
Brings to mind an old J.P Morgan quote tho: If you owe the bank $100, it is your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, it is the banks problem. Or something like that.
Also, if our economy does shrink by one-third, then there would be enough oil in shale deposits, Alaska and offshore to meet our needs quite well. Add American coal (think synthetic fuels) plus Canadian tar sands, and I think we could get by. We may be valuing transactions in acorns sted of dollars, but I think we could manage.
Anton,
Yeah, I don’t like the timing either. Congress needs to forget about going home to campaign and spend more time hammering out something that doesn’t involve a huge infusion of taxpayer dollars. I think Hank and Ben actually want Congress to pass it and leave so they can be left alone to work their magic until January. I prefer a bit more supervision if my money is in play.
Dogwood (my favorite tree btw)-
Didn’t GDP shrink by a third during the great depression?
Anonymous,
No way did Pelosi believe she had the votes. The only reason she unloaded on the Republicans during her speech is because she knew she didn’t have the votes, so she had nothing to lose by painting them as the villains in this debacle.
If she had 100 Republican votes lined up to pass the bill, then she would have been uttering sweet nothings into the microphone.
She is just playing politics, nothing more, nothing less.
Dogwood,
“I prefer a bit more supervision if my money is in play.”
Alas, if only it was adult supervision. You may get your wish, re congress staying in DC and foregoing the campaigning. Only rising food prices will prevent these clowns from being pelted by everything in the produce section out on the campaign trail.
Well then, Dogwood, you are saying that she is incompetent – having a vote when the bill would lose! The bill is to bail out the economy and it should be said by these stupid politicians that all of this is temporary – as soon as stability returns, then the government will get out of private enterprise.
Dogwood,
I completely agree with you regarding Nancy Pelosi. In my opinion, this is the point everyone should be making. It sounds a hell of a lot more believable than the the notion that dozens of “yes” voters suddenly decided to vote “no” upon hearing Pelosi’s attack speech.
Didn’t GDP shrink by a third during the great depression?
It was in the 25 to 30 percent range, yes, but I seriously doubt we’ll see a contraction of that magnitude. The Fed is not contracting the money supply and Congress is not pursuing a trade war that will result in a 50-percent reduction in global trade.
There were a lot of specific circumstances that made the depression as deep as it was, and at this point in time, I don’t see the same types of events/circumstances conspiring to take us into another economic dark age of that magnitude.
A painful recession to work off excessive debt and overpriced assets, sure, but a 30 percent drop in GDP? No way.
I’m sure we can talk ourselves into another Great Depression. Never underestimate the power of the spastastic & hyperbolic media. FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON!!!! DEATH TO WALL STREET!!!!
bush going to speak at 7:45am edt tomorrow. WTF? Short squeeze? Rate cut?
Well then, Dogwood, you are saying that she is incompetent
I do believe that, but it was not the point of my comment.
I believe her primary purpose is to use the crisis for political gain. As Speaker of the House, she has Congressmen to elect and once elected, they can come back to Washington and repair the damage.
at the minimum, get long some (SKF)..REALLY…from the proshares web page…Due to the emergency action announced by the Securities and Exchange Commission on September 18, 2008, temporarily prohibiting short sales of shares of certain financial companies, Short Financials ProShares (SEF) and UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) are not expected to accept orders from Authorized Participants to create shares until further notice. Unless notified otherwise, shares will be available for redemption by Authorized Participants as normal. The shares of these ProShares are expected to trade in the financial markets. As disclosed in the prospectus, ProShares may at times trade at prices that are not in line with their intraday indicative values
Unfortunately, for me, Bob Steele cut my balls off with a ginsu knife…REALLY is he trading for you?
DevilDog,
On Twitter today, I predicted a rate cut and 500 point rally in the Dow for tomorrow.
Bloomberg specifically raises the issue of a possible interest rate cut now that the legislation did not pass:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8VcrEftqPiI&refer=home
For myself I’m putting the recession on hold for an hour and going to watch Intervention. TC watches Leave It to Beaver, I watch Intervention.
Hank and Ben are going to do everything they can to provide liquidity to this market.
Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if the president issues an executive order temporarily suspending rules or regulations in an attempt to give companies some accounting elbow room.
Cost accounting, with some formula to discount values based on some housing related number, might be an elegant and simple move toward a solution.
Temporarily suspend the FASB mark-to-market valuation requirement. No forced sales per govt order. It can be anything.
Intervention is a good show!
Maybe Bush is going to resign tomorrow morning. Can’t be as much fun as it used to be.
In case you don’t read John Mauldin, he’s pretty good. Here he seems to outline a plan that includes elements of Alpha’s cost accounting idea and I think some of what Dogwood was talking about:
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/09/29/haste-makes-waste.aspx