For you banking lovers, you must go pray that American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] gets a nice big government block of cheese. For bears, it’s time to sit back and watch events unfold, while lining up some good shorts.
Either way, this mess will not end nicely.
On the top of my list is AXA (ADR) [[AXA]] . They have so much exposure, in so many different asset classes; I cannot envision their shares going on any substantial rally.
Also, for some reason California based banks are running. I guess the theory is FIFO (first in, first out). But, that is assuming the housing market has bottomed in California and banks are flush with cash.
I’ll take the opposite side of that trade. I will look to sell short [[FED]] , PacWest Bancorp [[PACW]] , East West Bancorp, Inc. [[EWBC]] and Wells Fargo & Company [[WFC]] .
God willing, Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] will continue its dive lower. I think it is a good short, right here, or anything over $65.
And, if the market rallies, asset management stocks should go higher. My favorite death spiral shorts are Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] and Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] , with a little Janus Capital Group Inc. [[JNS]] for good measure.
Finally, expect to see the market rally today. Line up your shorts, while placing your hedging longs.
As you know, personally, I like the energy complex as a hedge against the banks. In that space, I like National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , [[DIG]] and ConocoPhillips [[COP]] .
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You forgot to mention SRS.
long oct LM puts, long oct RIG calls. not praying
Long PACW is a great hedge for being net short.
Cubs… what’s your reasoning for PACW to $50?
Great calls FLY.
I have been watching the CA regionals too and wondering why they dont crack???? There is no way FED or PACW can be a take over target. I dont understand how MI,FITB,RF,FED, and EWBC are all hanging in. Am I missing something here
I see major support for energy/gold stuff, that shit is gonna bank you coin.
any you guys like the hedgefund PnF ?
FCX bouncing here.
Love P&F!!!!
You have be to nuts if you think AIG will fail today (key emphasis on today).
I have 5000 shares hoping for a hail mary. Should there be no bailout, my short hedges will get offset.
Big Mike- Sort of a Doug Flutie no time left BC vs U. of Miami pass?
ducati
As for oil, the $145 price spike was in large part generated by China increasing capacity in front of the Olympic games to reduce CO2 emissions from burning coal.
that has to be the stupidest comment I’ve seen all year, stupider than the wife asking me to take the garbage out. Do you understand they have coal fired plants over there, zonk brain.
Trader Caddy,
Like the Ely Manning pass against the Patriots on Superbowl…
Why the karma points are off?
Big Mike … what price?
Fly, base on which assumptions you think market will rally today?
Oversold bounce or fed intervention?
Where can I find current crack spreads? I’ve looked several times but have had no luck.
Thanks!
Fly’s time machine.
Donny…at $3 bucks, but be warned, I am ready to loose it all…or at least half of it.
Pure gambling position…
Obviously there is not only a fed cut coming but its been leaked… why else would the banks be running like Blues in September.
Roubini:
More Roubini:
So,
What companies are going to get hit the hardest from AIG’s demise?
Following a 500 decline, it makes sense to believe in a short term rally.
However, I do not believe AIG can raise enough money.
They need 90 billion.
NO WAY the Fed gives them that much.
Bankruptcy pending.
Do not hold overnight, unless you can handle the risk.
AXA should get smashed on AIG failure.
Bennet Sedacca
12:50:25 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Is the equity market in tune with the debt market?
Well, in a word, no. Following up on what Minyan Peter said earlier, not only are financial companies having problems, but so is mainstream America and it’s leaking over into consumer discretionary and other areas.
I have been saying for a long time that stocks and credit were out of tune with each other. While stocks have fallen, credit is worsening at a quicker pace.
So believe it or not, on a relative, risk/reward basis, I feel stocks are as dangerous as possible.
Risks remain high. Maybe higher than ever.
———————————
Jeffrey Cooper
01:35:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Pump The Volume Up!
Today’s volume already swamps yesterday’s.
This seems to be a potential positive if we get Train Tracks.
Especially it we regain and hold the channel on the earlier DJIA chart after it kissed the big midpoint of its 2002/2007 range.
—————-
Jeffrey Cooper
01:25:36 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
More S&P
A measured move on the SPX today using the first move up counts to 1218-ish IF we pop.
BM
I saw the fucker melting down in pre-market, and I bought 5500 at the open at $1.88-$1.89. I do think the gov’t will help, but I have no idea what type of help it’ll be. Will they crush the share holders?
I really had no plan when I bought it, other than a hedge.
What are you gonna do with it?
I took off my piker AIG trade .
Duc .. everyone knew that … now that oil’s sub 90, its likely baked into the cake. Whoever put that press release out wants oil a few dollars lower to get long again.
Muhahahaha. No change, fuckers.
WOw .. the Fed is growing balls, a bit late but butter late than never.
Damn it Ben, you were supposed to be “good cop”.
… and this is why as a daytrading moron I sit and do nothing before the Fed announces.
The market is dead … we’re going down withstanding a Costanza effort today or tomorrow.
MS is dead.
HBC is dead meat.
DB is dead cheese.
I removed my hedge in AIG. SOLD
Uncle Ben appears to want to slay the inflation dragon ala Paul Volcker style.
great conclusion of something that happened 3 months ago.
fyi: AXA detailed the exposure it has to both American International Group and Lehman Brothers. On Lehman, it holds a 0.05% proprietary equity interest in Lehman and a 300 million euro credit exposure; on AIG, it holds 0.02% equity interest and a 150 million euro credit exposure. Reports citing larger AXA holdings of AIG and Lehman refer to assets held by 63%-owned Alliancebernstein (AB), which are not proprietary assets of AXA.