I am getting my teeth kicked in, holding [[DIG]] , [[IEO]] , Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] and Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] —amongst others. However, my scientific blend of shorts:longs has resulted in a 1.9% gain—intra-day.
On days like this, it’s important to evaluate your portfolio. This is the stress test that will determine how prepared/unprepared you are. If you are having a very bad day, you are too long. On the other hand, if you are up too much, be careful and throw some longs on the sheets.
Reason being: the market never cooperates. The market is filled with idiotic participants (Vince Farell) who diligently work to delay the inevitable. It’s like one big game of chicken. Who will turn first?
I’ll have you know, “The Fly” drives a mean time machine, armed with machine guns and internet laser beams, capable of “junking” his opponents into a small stack of garbage.
Currently, I have no reason to make a move. My allocation is perfect—not too risky nor conservative. Best case scenario, oil runs and banks crap out. However, I don’t think that will happen anytime soon.
Look at National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and ask yourself: “would I rather own that business or Citigroup Inc. [[C]] ?” Then make your move.
Going into the close, I will try to short Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] and Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] . Both of them have a lot further to drop. Also, I am short Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] . That stock is trading “graveyard grim.”
NOTE: PZN is going to zero, in my humble opinion.
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Paulson: Americans should remain confident in U.S. Financial System- AP
Based on all the other BS that Paulson has espoused since the start of this financial crisis – subprime ‘is contained’ comes to mind, I would be very worried about a collapse of the entire banking system.
SHORT IDEA ….
Lehman Brothers is Boston Properties eighth largest tenant, with 436,723 square feet of rented space, accounting for 1.48 percent of the real estate investment trust’s portfolio, according to Boston Properties’ annual report.
BXP 93.18 -9.97 (-9.67%)
There’s a song for every occasion!
Good luck finding stock to borrow on PZN.
Any thoughts on why PACW trades like it’s worth something?
Another 70 points to go ……
Awww shit…I can’t believe I am short airlines; the only fucking sector in the green today…
60 now
50 !!!!!!!!!
So can you start cussing at 11000 or 10999 ?
40!!!!!!!!!!!
30!!!!!!!!
20!!!!!!!!!
Down 500 today….That would be sweet.
Fly about to unleash profanity hell! Developing…
AIG
Jim Cramer
9/15/08 1:32 PM EDT
If we do NOT get a resolution with AIG we will be down 500 points minimum i believe..that’s how important AIG Is. it is TOO BIG to fail, Only AIG and Citigroup are left as too big to fail. THAT’S IT. THe ONLY two
Position: none
AIG
Jim Cramer
9/15/08 1:35 PM EDT
You know i try to find the silver lining You know that i like to look at what can go right. You know i didnt care that Lehman went under with no help from the government, BUT I WANT TO MAKE THINGS VERY CLEAR, THIS MARKET CANNOT HANDLE THE COLLAPSE OF AIG. I BELIEVE WE COULD HAVE A WORLDWIDE CRASH IS AIG IS NOT FIXED. THAT’S RIGHT, A WORLDWIDE CRASH.
Position: none
Yop better have more fucks than I have ever seen on this site lined up.
Come on, people, sell some /YM and do your patriotic duty to free the Fly!!
Fuck. If Cramer is bearish its time to go long.
The stock gods do not like profanity.
More Cramer panicking.
—–
Without Help, We’re Sunk
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/15/2008 3:12 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10437445.html
If we get a resolution of AIG (AIG) , and we get a big rate cut, and we get some more sales from Citigroup (C) , and we get Washington Mutual (WM) in the hands of the FDIC, then we are there.
But if we don’t get them, if we only get some of them, then we will not hold — we will go down further, and we will have a seize-up in the markets that will be like 1987.
Lehman (LEH) owned too much bad stuff. It is over.
Merrill’s (MER) taken care of.
Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) are gone.
But these others haven’t gone away. If we can’t get AIG to sell assets in time and raise some capital and then get capital forbearance from others — because the stuff that they owe will not necessarily be triggered by these events — then we’ll go much lower.
If Citigroup doesn’t’ sell some big assets, we will go much lower.
We need to fix these two, and we need a rate cut to make people believe the banks are investable.
We need all of these or we will not stop here.
It is that important.
this is like watching pay-per-view
I was just at the beach with some friends & dogs … I come back to Jimbo pressing the alarm button …
——————–
Jim Cramer Blog
Citigroup and AIG Can’t Be Allowed to Fail
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/15/2008 2:08 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10437426.html
As far as I am concerned, there are only two institutions in this whole world that are too big to fail: AIG (AIG) and Citigroup (C) . We cannot let these two institutions go under, because their exposures are way too big and way too important. They should never have been allowed to get too big, but they do have saleable assets and can be worked out over time if they have time. And I didn’t hear anything from Hank Paulson, the Treasury secretary, that made me feel he understands this. A private-sector attempt to save AIG is not good enough.
That’s why I think the Fed should say that it will give them breathing room. I don’t know how to make that happen, but I do want people to know that we can handle anything this market throws at us … except letting those two go. They are too integrated into the financial firmament worldwide. Note that my comments are not meant to say the market won’t go down a lot — it will go down huge from here. What my comments are about is trying to make it so the world’s financial markets don’t seize up and collapse. That’s what could happen.
It is so important that the federal government recognize that these two are different. AIG insures so many financial assets that we won’t be able to disentangle them. Citigroup is too big a lender to have it go belly-up without having some cataclysmic effect on the economy.
We need a break, a time out. We need the Fed to say, “The liquidity is available to help any large insurer or bank.”
Without that, we cannot rule out a total takeout of the lows — and then some.
I do hope that the Treasury and the Fed recognize that Citigroup and AIG are different.
They are extremely different.
They cannot be allowed to fail. In 1998, we knew that Long Term Capital had borrowed so much and was so ingrained like a cancer into the system that we needed a come-together to save them. AIG and Citigroup are bigger than Long Term Capital.
They both must be supported and fixed NO MATTTER HOW MUCH TIME IT TAKES.
10 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RC – I know, it’s like an enthralling movie. Or book.
this is such a tease! i want 11,000 so bad, i can’t stand it
FLY – FUCKING WELCOME BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Welcome back fly!
10,999!!!!
yes!!!!!!!!!
Uh oh. We are fucked.
At 3:24 and approx 50 seconds the Dow hit 10,998.36, down about 423 points.
Let the cursing begin.
boca: are you on Googletalk?
fucking right on, fly! i knew the true fly couldn’t be kept down for long.
that said, i sold my SKF waaaaaaaay too early today. i suck.
also NOV is a fucking STEAL at these prices, but i’m too scared to buy it right now.