Just go long, dumb man. Go long.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Bullshit, then why are prices not falling even more. I am starting to not believe any other than what is reality and right now the prices are still not coming down enough. Price pays, not some interesting to listen to guy.
I just got back from the future and it told me refiners are ready to rip. Fuck you all.
Gapping:
I believe Case-Shiller has national housing prices down 14.4% YoY and approximately 30% since housing peaked in 2006. That’s not a lot?
WSL: In my city (Chitown) no. These faggots still think they will get top fucking dollar for their 1500 sq ft shitbox. We have an endless supply of fucking 1Mil plus houses and they are not coming down in price at all.
Fly, less than 1.5 hours til I own your blog.
Gapping:
I hear you
I think that it is important to distinguish between what delusional jerk-off home owners think that their home is worth, and what it would actually sell at if they were forced to sell it in this market. Hence the insane decline in existing home sales, as these fools have yet to come to term with the reality that their home isn’t worth nearly as much as they believe, and thus for some reason, can’t seem to find a buyer…..
You’ve been watching the LIBOR news all day, haven’t you, Fly?
Well the fucking buyers can’t even get credit to purchase either. But my problem is these fucking queers that after their property has been listed for 100+ days refuse to lower. They got problems in the cranium. Just the other day I ran into two of these fucks, I just chuckled and walked out of their low end shit box.
I agree with WSL. I read somewhere last week only 25% of homeowners think their home has declined in value in the past year.
On a somewhat related note KEY to $0.01
Crazy bitch bought an old Victorian in Sac Town for 230k 10 years ago and now has it on the market for 600k. When asked about fixes given that it is a 100 year old, unimproved Victorian, the stupid wanker said that if I loved her house like she did when she bought it, then I would just buy it – as is. Another words, menopausal madamm wants to sell the building “as is” for close to a 200% profit when she has not done a damn thing to fix it up. In 2008!!! Another guy wanted to sell me his fourplex for 300k, which I jumped at. Only after my offer went in did he realize that he owed 480 k on the fucking building. It’s not just the banks that make it difficult, it’s the dumb shits that still believe that it is 2002 in the real estate world. I can’t even get beyond the owners to see how bad it will get when I get to the bank. That is where the real story is.
Wood,
I think the Cubes really die here. Smacking the downtrend line at $50.21, and looking at that voodoo RSI(2) bullshit of yours, it’s egregiously overbought.
Conviction?
Anyone catching this refiner move with me?
Gapping:
Very true. thats part of the demand side of the equation. No more dirt cheap money secured by liar loans to feed into the system.
DB. I remember reading something similar a little while ago.
My belief is that once most homeowners realize how much the value of their only real asset and savings vehicle has declined, they are likely to cut back on discretionary spending even further, and thus we have yet to fully realize the extent of the damage that has been done to the consumer.
Thats my working thesis anyway. We’ll see….
Jake,
How are you drawing the downtrend line? My trend line looks broken. I wish the cubes would crash and burn as I was stupid enough to get caught holding the bag last week, but I’m not seeing it right now.
This melt up doesn’t want to quit.
Jake I agree, also if they turn down it could be an H&S which could accelerate.
Mr. Mortgage cracks me up.
I wonder if he realizes that “consistency” is a big, no huge, part of credibility?
People give shit to these tv personalities, and for the most part, it’s well deserved, but one thing most of them have inculcated by the time they hit “prime time” is how important it is to maintain a consistent image.
Someone needs to email Mr. Mortgage and let him know that “post-scotch & meth binge” is not a good “look” for a guy who’s broadcasting border-line rants on financial matters.
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Observation: 4.25 years of supply on the market!! Shite!
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Observation (2): Why did Fly cover DSL??
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Renn —
I’m taking the line from the 11/7/07 high through the top of the 5/19/08 candle and down. It’s height for today is about $50.21, and we are overbought like a bitch right now.
Whoops, we just lost a dime in a flash!
TSO looks like its on the verge of a major squeeze.
Short % of Float (as of 12-May-08)3: 9.30%
Jake, I will likely go long QID Monday a.m.
Jake,
I was using the highs from 11/07/07, 12/11/07, and 12/26/07. I like your line much better!!
VLO looks nice too. I’d wait for a pullback on TSO, though. Nosebleed-inducing “Chuck Yeager” action has to be short covering. There’ll be more.
woods,
congrats, you have won. in advance. just one thing, don’t use the time machine come monday.
Anon — I used that line too! Until I got my bawls barbecued, that is.
Let’s see if this one hold up. At least it has Woody’s “special RS(2) sauce” in it this time.
Shed,
Out of curiosity, why wait til Monday am? Why not this afternoon? Exogenous event fear?
Jake- 2 reasons. During work hours, my wife trades for me. Now I’m using Tradestation, and she has not mastered that platform. She is a master of Scottrade, I’m proud to say.
Second and most important reason is that all the testing I’ve done has me purchasing and selling the equity on the open. The results have been good, so I’m not going to deviate from the plan.
“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.”
or was that Ralph Waldo?
Jake,
remember, tracinda made an offer for 20% of tso at 64 a shr last october.
Confucious- it was Emerson, and it was “little” and not small.
Edit**** Ah, I see you’ve fixed it. Nice work.
Now, how bout some O’Connor?
glad to hear you don’t want to be a deviant, woodroe! one on this blog is enough!
Buylo, I know. I’m hoping Danny will mature one of these days.
gapping, I was going along for the ride with you, I had some VLO 50 calls that caught a very nice move this afternoon. Sweet way to end the day.
Shed, what’s the old saying about being careful what you wish for?
Boca, this time, I think I’m safe.
you’ll end up writing more, which means that Fly wins even when he appears to be loosing (sic).
No Boca, I’m going to laser beam it. There will be no writing.
The time machine is always right.
Chivas,
That’s unbelievable. Did they actually make the investment or did they dodge the bullet?
That guy is high, IMO.
I’ve only just begun to tap into my credit cards. Plenty of discretionary spending left.
Jake,
they dodge the bullet at 64 because tso came up with a poison pill. having said that there seem to be some smoke about something in the 40’s. the ceo this week said at a conference that his inventory has a higher value than the whole co.
Chivas,
Interesting… I didn’t know that the refiners kept a lot of inventory lying around. That would certainly make for an interesting valuation argument.
Mr. M just has a bad 5 0’clock shadow problem – that’s all. Martin Feldstein was on Bloomberg recently and I believe that he mentioned a figure of 40% of all mortgages going under water – does that scare you? Well, it should – be afraid – be very very afraid and short these financials while there is something left to short.
when i walk around seattle, i see a huge, and i mean huge, supply of new commercial and residential property. the number of condos and townhouses still under construction is staggering. i don’t see how they are going to be filled in less than 5 years. it reminds me of miami a few yrs ago.
just across the street from me, i see 3 condos that have been empty for over a year. asking prices have barely moved, of course.
The numbers are actually much worse than I put up. If you look on my blog to the right side of the spreadsheet I am working on the final data for REO AS A % OF TOTAL SALES. That is where you will see where the problem lies.
Last month REO as a % of sales was 38%. Banks are dropping bombs in neighborhoods across the nation taking down values overnight by 20-50%. Bank REO and the lack of programs since Sept is responsible for the past 11-month mega-crash of 27% in CA.
Are you fuching kidding me…27% in 11-months! That is a wipeout of epic proportions and essentially means that more homeowners than not who purchased over the past 3 years are underwater. Nearly all those who took out home equity lines/loans with original effective CLTV’s of 80% or greater are underwater as well. That is amost everyone.
The CA crash is brand new. Just wait until Sept this year when all those 600k – 1.5 million homes are still sitting on the market because nobody can qualify for the financing or sell their home for the down. Thats when things get really nasty.
Prices in CA will gavitate lower until the median income for a zip code can buy the median home then churn there for a couple of years. Then if we are really lucky and if rates arent 20% due to surging inflation Bernanke screwed us all with bailing out the 15 investment banks who started all this shit, housing may have a shot at 6% per year appreciation.
I will bury Mr Mortgage. Buy the banks I like – C WFC BAC
Sure I may be getting too cute, but I make money being too cute. Ok, so I also loose {sic] money being too cute, but it ain’t my money! Its OPM. Booyah!
Mr Mortgage? Who the fuck is this joker? Get him off the fucking stage. He doesn’t know diddly.