I’m in combat mode here, after being poleaxed in a variety of subprime short sales. However, I did book significant profits in some of my individual bear bets.
Here is a quick recap:
Covered all of my [[FED]], [[DSL]] and [[WM]] shorts.
Sold all of my [[VMI]].
Bought more [[SMN]].
Sold short [[POT]], [[MON]] and [[DECK]].
Long story short, I now have ample cash to be more flexible with my trades. As of yesterday, I was levered up to my eyeballs in downside plays. Don’t misconstrue. I still believe there is significant downside left in the market. I just need to be more cautious with my risk.
Going into the close, I would like to see [[SKF]] trade under $105 (my buy point). Also, I may bet against [[GOOG]]. Those fuckers are due to miss, and miss big.
Finally, with commodities running like mad, and the dollar in the shitbox, [[SLV]] and [[DGP]] look great here.
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I picked up 10 GOOG puts for a spec play.
Hey Fly…..forgive me if inappropriate, but what’s the latest as far as year to date % gains? My only motivation…..your performance serves as my inspiration. Period.
CHEERS!
D
+15%
If XLF breaks $26.20 watch out.
Thank you, Fly. Consider me inspired. Back to work……
CHEERS!
D
you are having fun with photoshop, huh?
i must admit, they have been making me chuckle
Uh oh…looks like It’s an “all in” move for the Fly huh?
Seriously, you must have balls of steel to keep averaging down on SMN and keep betting against Ags.
Everything fuckin analysts are predicting 50% more upside potential, due to “shortage” of food around the world.
Mike:
Believe me, I want the creator of SMN arrested and sent to the electric chair.
However, I’d be stupid to give up now, after having both arms and legs blow off.
It’s a torso play.
This strength in the fins is crap – I get it how they’re not going out of business and the fed sorta has their backs, but the dilutions and future earnings methods and amounts have to be lower than everyone is anticipating. I look at Pitt National among others this am – higher loss reserves, etc. – is this smart money or fast quick in and out money moving them up. This is one frustrated crappy trader
SLV+
forget this SMN stuff, too scary for me, I’m going long ags
You have some steel balls.
Big Mike.. holding COF short here. Any reason you think they will miss?
Fly serious question, I have been seriously following SMN since you introduced me to it and I was wondering isn’t what you are doing a decidedly countertrend trade since it is in a downtrend from its birth? It seems like it is good for a short term pop here and there and one day it might come to life but looking at the chart it looks like a lot of people are drowning in SMN. I want to buy it since I know commodities are in a bubble right now but…?
Solars flew too high? or just out of power
Correct.
I have violated a myriad of my own rules with SMN.
Initially, I played it from 40-55. Then, like an ass, I went back to the well, at $43 and have been buying it ever since.
The funny thing is: part of my ’08 thesis was to be a commodity bull, particularly with food.
I bought SMN as a play against the hottest stocks, which I thought would drop with a general market downturn.
Thus far, in 2008, we’ve yet to see any sustainable bear runs.
^^ Pussy. ^^
(Steel balls)
COF will be bad, but as the little miss on fast money says, who knows what the reaction will be
some short covering before the report should take some of the sting from costanza buying after earnings
All stocks go up, before they go down.
Thanks for the info Fly.
Stocks are fucked up.
I’m joining Wille Sutton’s ghost and robbing banks instead.
Funnily enough, I bought some SMN today at $31.49 for a short term trade. Looking good.
Fly who is doing those front page photos?
They are very funny. Thank you so much!
Jeremy.
Did you watch south park last night? Don’t bet against the internet.
Check out ADZ or AGA if you wanna get short those Agg fuckers. New inverse ETFs could signal a top is close at hand.
There goes that flat candlestick again.
Down we go.
I’ll be in Boston tonight @ Paul Revere’s house if anyone’s looking for me.
Shriner Freemasons rule
Ducati:
I’m assuming you believe prices should go higher, without pause.
Eventually markets correct themselves. Todays surplus is tomorrows deficit.
Ducati,
Although prices can continuously appreciate over time whether its due to inflation or real underlying demand I will usually call a bubble when prices go parabolic and deviate strongly from their mean appreciation whether it be housing, commodities, tulips, or whatever. It was a pretty common assertion among pundits at the start of this mess that the fed would have to create a new bubble to offset the old one and the consensus was that it would be in commodities. Seems like this is the case. Then again I am an engineer and not an economist so what the hell do I know (no sarcasm intended).
Calvino,
It’s only a matter of time…consumer’s credit card will get hit one day or another. The consumers are clearly tapped out, and their balance sheet are shrinking considerably. Remember for every 10% of falling houses prices equal a $2 trillion reduction on their balance sheet.
Have you asked your friends how many credit cards they have and how much they owe? It’s unnatural… somebody will have to pay for it someday; and I don’t think the consumers will. Not with $4/gas, and abnormal commodity prices.
Consumers were able to pay their credit cards in the 2001 recession by taking in their home equity-line. Houses were appreciating that time. This was one of the main reasons the recession was shallow because consumers continued spending.
I want to put into context something I read on the Alan Greenspan book, “Age of Turbulance”.
“Recession are like hurricanes – they range from ordinary to catastrophic. The ordinary ones are part of the business cycle: they happen when business inventories exceed demand, and companies cut production sharply until the excess inventory gets sold. The Category 5 kind happens when DEMAND ITSELF COLLAPSES – when consumers stop spending and business stop investing.” Page – 67
Whether your a perma-bull or Fly-bear shitter, we can at least agree that the consumer is the one retracting, as the corporations balance sheet outside of financial are relatively healthy.
i can’t wait until the giant sink-hole under canada opens up and swallows POT once and for all.
People tend to not realize that the global, coordinated increases in all commodities will tend to act very much like interest rate increases in affecting the economy, reducing money available to business to spend on growth. It will not only be inflationary (if the US is ever willing to actually measure it) but it will seriously lengthen the recession.
Blowoff commodity prices concurrent with blowoff stock runs is simply stupid.
The way LEH is rallying you would think it posted earnings today and not MER. Percentage wise its actually higher. Satanic stock from hell.
Ducatti,
I don’t imagine that I ever meant my statement to be anything more than an opinion. Then again if you want my opinion the whole field of finance is merely a bunch of opinions you think something is worth more, I think its less therefore one buys and one sells. Anyone who thinks they can somehow quantify it in a matter similar to the physical sciences is fooling themselves and the market proves that everyday.
Damnit Ducatti I knew you were going to pull that damn word and use it, I knew it!
Here you go:
“but looking at the chart it looks like a lot of people are drowning in SMN. I want to buy it since, in my opinion, commodities seem that they are in a bubble right now but…?”