I just escaped from my local mental institution. As you know, they were holding me against my will, forcing me to write bullish commentary. Upon completion of my previous post, I ate a can of spinach, then proceeded to punch all of their mustaches off.
With respects to this market, Cramer has tofu for a brain, if he thinks there is a bidding war for [[BSC]].
Please!
Everyone in the business knows BEAR STERNS [sic] is doomed, due to their business being eliminated from existence.
Look you, I don’t have time to explain every single detail. Just know, the banks are a triple sell. Sell, sell, sell—sell, sell, sell.
For now, I will continue to do nothing, with the exception of throwing idle marble paperweights at my trader/servant.
I’ve had a banner start to the new year. I do not intend to fuck it up with bad trades and unnecessary risk. Instead, I’ll wait until next weeks Fed meeting to make up my fucking mind, with regards to my reentry of choice inverse etf’s.
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I’ve consulted my astrologer .. he says the fed will issue a confusing statement and infer that they are DONE easing. Market will bleed RED after that.
Place your bets if we’ve priced in goldies lox leading up to fed day.
Hittin EWZ here… for the double.
CETV looking joocey.
Dare I say “DECK-like?”
CVD too, Bruce, whaddaya think?
All “da Bearz” o’ course.
BOOMER,
Any thoughts on BOOM? Holding up well today, has a buy convergence on the daily chart, and sittin just above the 200 daily ema. Just looking plain interesting.
I’d sell BOOM two million times over, if possible.
all those look good Jake . I’ll stick them on the radar & put a few limit orders out there.
Fly: a positive bit on HANS
http://www.thestreet.com/p/pf/rmoney/investing/10400468.html
any interest?
Our failed rally just fucked Europe. A one over, if you will.
I like HANS.
I have a HANS source who tells me they are coming out with a lot of new flavors and implementing a price hike, for the first time in company history.
Juice,
i can’t get to that article… what’s it say?
Hansen Natural (HANS) develops alternative soft drinks, including natural sodas, fruit juice drinks and energy drinks. It is best known for its Monster brand energy drink, which is the second-most popular brand of energy drink and has helped the company’s shares become one of the best investments of the last decade.
Hansen now has to prove whether it can extend its momentum to new products and markets. We all now know what John Edwards thinks of leading energy drink Red Bull, and it’s probably not a stretch to think that many others feel similarly about the newer concoctions.
Still, that hasn’t stopped the market from growing exponentially over the past several years. The question keeps getting asked whether the growth can continue, and the answer so far has been affirmative. What’s more, the past improvement seems sufficient to justify holding the name even if growth slows substantially.
For example, over the past 12 months, Hansen generated free cash flow (cash from operations less capital expenditures) of $98 million. Based on its $3.4 billion enterprise value, this equates to a 2.9% free cash flow yield. With the market turmoil having pushed five-year Treasury yields below 2.5%, Hansen is now yielding a premium to Treasuries despite offering substantial growth opportunity — more than 40% sales growth in 2007 and another 30% or more expected in 2008.
By contrast, PepsiCo (PEP) offers a more generous 4.3% free cash flow yield but is expected to grow just 7.5%. Meanwhile, Jones Soda (JSDA) is expected to grow a similar 30% in 2008 (though off less impressive 2007 growth), but its cash flow from operating activity over the last year has been negative.
If Hansen grows as expected this year, its free cash flow yield (relative to the current enterprise value) would approach Pepsi’s. Any additional future growth would be a bonus from that point, and there seem to be many opportunities for the growth to continue.
For example, last February, Hansen entered a distribution agreement with Pepsi-QTG Canada. This gives Hansen its first real crack at international sales, which increased from 2.6% of the total in the first nine months of 2006 to 4% in the same period for 2007. Its domestic distribution has also been enhanced by deals with Anheuser-Busch (BUD) . To incorporate earnings quality, I calculated an accrual ratio for Hansen, which describes how much of a company’s earnings (in this case, over the preceding 12 months) are explained by cash flows rather than accounting choices.
Hansen Natural Accrual Ratio
Click here for larger image.
Source: Zacks’ Research Wizard, compiled by William A. Trent
The closer to 100%, the better, and Hansen’s accrual ratio has been much less volatile than I would have thought for a company growing so fast. (Rapid growth typically requires cash outflows that aren’t reflected in current earnings.)
Operating profit margins were lower in the first nine months of 2007, but this was primarily due to the legal and accounting expenses surrounding an investigation of stock-option-granting practices and the costs associated with terminating existing distribution agreements as the company enhanced its relationship with Anheuser-Busch.
The biggest risk for shareholders is probably Hansen’s choppy record with regard to earnings expectations. The company reported earnings below consensus expectations in two of the last four quarters, and, since a miss in November, the shares have shed more than 40% of their value. A two-year chart reveals a similar situation in mid-2006.
In hindsight, that 2006 selloff proved to be a terrific buying opportunity. Based on Hansen’s current valuation, I think the current one may prove to be the same.
Hansen should be able to maintain its current free cash flow yield as long as the company keeps growing, which suggests potential upside in line with the 30% growth rate this year. Unless the growth rate slows substantially, it looks like a keeper.
HANS new flavors will be gay…pink latte, shirley temple berry, and mango daquirie.
The Fly has order cases of all that shit.
Holy crap, John Edwards drinks that shit?
Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell!
Great analysis, though… Hanson offers a premium to treasuries?
Welllll, blow me down!
Have any of you Fucktards participated in the 7 yr bull in PM’s?
Writedowns will continue into the Trillion$$$.
Banks & Financial Institutions are I N S O L V E N T!!
The US is BK.
The USD is on its way to Weimer.
And, “It’s Only Just Begun”.
What the Fuck r u waiting for?
WTFU!!
Tha’ RehB’ll is good shit wif vokka.
Global…
I’ve got so much PM now, I’m thinking of changing my name to “JakeGold.”
Gay as that may sound.
And silver, too.
But no parradium.
Fast Food joints are now serving Monsters . I wonder if this is going to be a new trend. Good news for HANS i suppose.
Fly, who is this shit for brains?
By contrast, PepsiCo (PEP) offers a more generous 4.3% free cash flow yield but is expected to grow just 7.5%. Meanwhile, Jones Soda (JSDA) is expected to grow a similar 30% in 2008 (though off less impressive 2007 growth), but its cash flow from operating activity over the last year has been negative.
Yeah, so maybe we can impute a risk premium into some of this pie in the sky “You ain’t Pepsi by a long shot” bullshit?
“Analysts” like this know just enough to fool the rubes and be radioactive dangerous.
If he’s from your wirehouse, he needs canning like a ripe tamater.
CAP —
got short MOS at $94.40 again.
Bad move?
I have been involved with the gold stocks since the run in 1982. I have sold them long and short, short and long. This run will be over when your Aunt Hilda tells you she bought some gold coins.
I like BOOM. I like the growth. I like the story. I like mgmt. I like the balance sheet. I like a lot about it – heavy short interest.
Others to consider:
WGOV
JEC
HURC
Look
Does it REALLY fuckin’ matter what the DOW; COMP and S&P’s do when when the currency is intentionally offered up as the Sacrificial Lamb?
Think INFLATION adjusted and the Fuckin’ US markets have done shit for 7-8 yrs.
INFLATION running double-digits; Unemployment running 10-12% and too many fuckwads believe this shit spewed from the agencies?
Protect and Govern your azz.
South ‘AFrica is out of electric power, miners are closed – there is your PGM run
ok, global, it’s great that you read shedlock’s blog, all of us are too fucking stupid to know what you are talking about. so i apprecdiate your warning. jake is the exception of course – he is very smart, in his own queer sort of way.
^lol at jake.
South Africa is an example of what happens when Marxists/extreme Socialists (ANC party) runs a country. High unemplyoment and no electricity.
cal
First of all, I have no ides whom/what shedlock is.
Secondly, far from the sharpest tool in the shed. However, certainly not walking around with blinders on drinking the Kool-Aid.
As for Mr. McFLY, he is apreciated for his candor and frankness.
Keep-up the good work “FLY” it appears that some are bent over grabbing their ankles waiting for DA truck to back up and get plowed by Mr. BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAH Ski-Daddio. Soon to find themselves parted from their wallet, unfortunately.
Forget about banks. PGM metals is where you want to be.
Do you fucking believe that the whole South Africa is SHUT DOWN!!!
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=45146&sn=Detail
PAL and SWC is on rocket ride today. Marvelous!
TC are you suggesting that’s what it would be like under the Hillary regime?
If you’d like to learn more about BOOM, there’s a new investor presentation on their website:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=93754&p=irol-presentations
Every dog has his day. Even JJ.
“Fuck the bank I work for”
http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=552237