Remember [[CMO]]. They own a portfolio that consists of 99% gov’t agency bonds.
As rates drop, spreads will widen, enabling them to bank coin, which in turn will be passed along to shareholders via dividend hikes.
Look for the dividend and share price to appreciate on every rate cut.
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Stocks are for idiots, no? Now we only buy inverse ETFs.
Meanwhile, I think you should change the “I have seen the future quote…” it’s beginning to look wrong.
-DT
wtf is wrong with the U.S markets, we have gone nowhere in the past 8 fucking years.
“I have seen the future…I’m fucking right.”
-The Fly, 2008
fxp+
Great call broker on CMO by the way.
MBI’s troubles may be exacerbated by a crisis at Channel Reinsurance Ltd., a Bermuda-based reinsurer that took on more than $8 bln worth of risks from the bond insurer. MBIA said recently that it will take a $3.3 bln charge in the fourth quarter to cut the fair market value of some of its mortgage-related exposures. Because ChannelRe reinsures some of MBI’s risks, it will also take writedowns. Those charges will exceed its shareholder equity, or net worth, under generally accepted accounting principles, according to RenaissanceRe (RNR) and PartnerRe (PRE), two big ChannelRe shareholders. ChannelRe was set up in 2004 to exclusively reinsure some of MBI’s risks. At the end of September, it reinsured $8.4 bln of exposures for the bond insurer. MBI owns 17.4% of the Bermuda firm, while RenaissanceRe owns 32.7%. PartnerRe and Koch Financial are the other investors. RenaissanceRe and PartnerRe said late Wednesday that their stakes in ChannelRe are now worthless, wiping out positions that were valued at $126.7 mln and $74 mln at the end of September. Reinsurance is back-up coverage bought by insurers to help them spread the risks they’ve taken on. But this type of protection only works if the reinsurer is financially strong enough to pay claims when due. The problems at ChannelRe have sparked concern that MBI may have to take back some of the risks it offloaded onto the Bermuda firm, and set aside more capital. The bond insurer may well have to write down or write off the value of its 17.4% stake. That would be more bad news for MBI, which is already in danger of losing its crucial AAA rating because of waning capital.
We are fucked…for now on the long side……. we are going down………….I sure I will not be included in this injection of a bullshit 350 dollars… All the poor fuckers will get our tax money to spend us out of this situation? That sounds dumb……. Look out Wal-Mart and that Big PaPa’s Rim place here come the Obmas poor folk…..Fucken die ……
I just smashed some shit…………………I feel better it was from China……but not China……
How about MATH and WGAT?
Yo ‘Chise —
Is that CMO (gawd that’s a horrendous ticker in these times!) also a tax shield, like certain other gov’t and muni bonds?
Back in the day, when REITs were cheaper n’ shit, I used to love picking up the suckers with the nine, ten percent divvy’s and then find — much to Uncle Slammy’s chagrin — that some huge portion was “return of capital” — or tax deferred.
Soon the REITs will be excreting good nectar like that again. Good times.
BTW, “Back in the Day” = ’99, 2000.
I must have borrowed The Fly’s Time Machine when I posted this:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2008/01/10/channel-re-will-go-from-aaa-to-ccc-to-toast-soon/
Over and Out, #8
“wtf is wrong with the U.S markets, we have gone nowhere in the past 8 fucking years.”
Ah,…it’s called a secular bear market.
Bear markets don’t necessarily always have to go down. They can go sideways for a long time, going nowhere, causing you to gnaw your fingers off.
Nice freaking call, Employee 8!
Tax rebate of 350 bucks. Tax rebates didn’t work in Japan. Won’t work here.
Big turnaround in Asia. Futures indicating bears for breakfast.
Aca, aca, aca
Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan, said this week when asked about bond insurers: “What [worries me] is if one of these entities doesn’t make it . . . the secondary effect . . . I think could be pretty terrible.â€
anyone smell a fed move tipoff/leak with these futures building into opt exp morning?
I was hoping for a gap down washout and then bounce. I don’t like the futures gapping up 14 points.
Crazy days.
-DT
Uncle Ben is revving up the copters, complete with sidewinders & anti-aircraft laser beams.
DT- I agree with you. A true bottom for a healthy rally will be a cascading (or huge gap down) waterfall type decline where we all shut down our quote machines and attend our chosen religious facility to pray (unless you are short). The VIX will have to touch close to 40.
Of course, if this is a bear market we have a number of months to go punctuated by the occasional pop to the upside.
Dear Mr. X,
As a matter of policy the company does not comment on the stock price.
We can state that there have been no recent changes to our fundamental business or our goals for the business. We remain focused on bringing high volume consumer products featuring our PicoP display engine to market as rapidly as possible.
The CES show was extremely positive for us. Our meeting schedule was full, our technology was well received by OEMs, supply chain partners, and individual consumers, we generated significant media attention, and we have a number of follow on meetings with potential partners as a result. I have included a link here featuring media highlights from CES:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/showbuzz.html
We do not know of any specific events which have caused the recent trading activity. We believe the stock has experience lots of momentum selling and higher than normal shorting activity over the last week. The market in general and the small cap technology market in particular has experienced downward pressure this year. Microvision has not escaped the broader market instability in the New Year.
Each day we are addressing the challenges of bringing new technologies into new markets, and each day we are taking steps towards making Microvision’s potential a reality. We believe that continuing to focus on the execution of our go-to-market strategy will generate long term value for our shareholders.
Best Regards,
Tiffany Bradford
IR Specialist
fly
still sell into today’s rally?
Anyone here know a jot and tittle about economics?
It helps if you lean to the Austrian side, but mein gott, fellahs, this “stimulus” idea is just honking horse-shit.
It bloody amazes me that not only are our politicians talking about “gifting” taxpayers (their own) money back, but BERNAKE IS ENDORSING SUCH HORSESHIT!
He is either wholly owned by the PPT, or he is the worst economist to come along since Hoover’s bunch.
Memo to Washington: Your bullshit monarchial “gift” to the peasants (again, of their own money) means nada in the face of:
1) A mounting — insurmountable? — transfer payment liability in the form of Socialist Security and Medicare payments to aging self-indulgent Boomers, and;
2) An almost $2 trillion dollar looming tax hike in the form of “expiration” on the 2003 Bush tax cuts.
End result: Willful stupidity, and it’s “populist” cousin, communism, wins!
X– How could you sell out of company with an IR chief named “Tiffany?”
______________
KD — with both hands and both feet.
I demand my Socialist Security and Medicare payments and I want it NOW (in a few years anyway).
WAH WAH WAH
jake,
how much further? we are down 20% from the highs made. At this rate dow will be down to 100.
Alias: BPOE
ALERT: FLY breakout
FLY is proof that trading is an ART and not a science. May the trading GODS stay with him.
GO GIANTS !!!
Bernanke is a deer in the headlights.
Jake Gimp, you were spewing some lachrymose gibberish about the shrub in chief, and now you are poopooing his plan to save our economy. Figure out where you stand you flip flopping gimp, this is not men’s underwear you are talking about. Or maybe stick to things you know, like men’s underwear.
if they’re gonna cut, wouldn’t it be before the open or very shortly after?
What the fugg?
I guess everyone is expected to take their tax rebate and buy ugly fucking boots – DECK!
short more deck here
short deck, yes, Marty McFly’s gift that don’t stop
SEll XOM, right here at the 200 day
Got it at $86.25
Great fill, imo.
you guys like DUG right here…
KD —
20% only marks a bear market, not the extent of it. They’ll be more down. At least another 10% before a meaningful bounce, imo.
Dimwit Calvino — First, congratulations on the new Thesaurus. I hope you didn’t “break the bank” on it.
Bush is only doing what he can to save his legacy before he hits the exit. He knows as well as I do that “stimulus” like this is trying to make your toaster work with a bolt of lighting (heard that this morning, not my metaphor, but a good one). What was important was that back in 2003, Bush hammered Congress into lowering marginal rates, which allows people and businesses to PLAN their investments in the private economy… a huge key to efficient economics. Not coincidentally, the market rallied huge.
Now Bush knows that with your commies (the Dems) and your girlfriend San Fran Nan in charge of the Congressional purse strings, there ain’t no way we’re getting those tax cuts made permanent, so he’s opting for the “quick fix” to burnish the rotting apple for another three quarters til he’s gone.
Cynical, but not stupid, from a political point of view.
Ironic thing about you Dems and your adherence to socialism at all costs is this: if you only embraced what even the former Commies of Russia and Eastern Europe have embraced — that low taxes spur economic growth that throws cash at gummint coffers — you’d cut the Repubs off at the knees with a chain saw and reign unmolested for the next half century.
But you are, as a group, stupid, as evidenced by your maunderings here. So, carry on, viz, etc.
I’d go long here just because
http://post.polls.yahoo.com/quiz/financeresults.php
67% of those who voted think the market trades sideways or goes down from here.
Link didn’t work for me Cap.
A blank screen.
Cap, what are you long, and what are you buying? Are you putting your money with your mouth?
Is my formerly wealthy, not so much so now son, Boomer present?
I can only hold the lightning bolts from BOOM for so long, my child. I fear the entire company may be made of copper.
Look at the chart of LULU, then lookat when I said sell it two days ago. If you were smart, instead of trying to look smart and argue with me, you would have shut up and listened and made 15% in two days..
You know nothing about my politics. What pisses me off is the technology and wealth transfer to Charlie Chan, engineered by your Manchurian Candidate.
And look at CRM, which I have been calling a short for the past week!
anyone buying FXP down here? I picked up a small amount at $84.71
Shorticus,
Where for art thou yesternight?
I fear you were sojourning in Vahalla with those other nymphs of ill repute.
Wood,
Go to http://finance.yahoo.com/ . Scroll down the page to the lower right hand column.
Bought some QLD near yesterdays close. No individual stocks yet but may go long some of the following SPWR FSLR CMG AAPL BIDU GOOG GRMN RIMM . This is a bear market and a sharp rally will occur. Some of the sharpest V Bottom rallies occur in bear markets. Could see a 7-10% gain in a couple of weeks.
Gunn — looking to rebuy my $95 FXP calls here soon.
Errr, “my son.”
Manchurian candidate is McCain.
Absolute worst possible outcome, outside of Billary pulling the win.
Free trade is a good thing, not a bad thing, Pat Buchanan.
Agree that IP needs to be better policed, but it is as tight now (globally) as its ever been.
“Knock off” is not a new term.
Bought some FXP at $85.80 and again at $84.95.
Back short in EWZ again @ $71. The gift that keeps on giving.
Cap, while I like trading from sentiment indicators, my suspicions are that the one you reference is likely to have polled the MOST uniformed, inexperienced, and generally naive group of investors on the planet. Therefore, I don’t put a whole lot of weight in it.
Finally, I don’t want you to get killed bottom picking. I think you should let the bottom happen, then wait a day for confirmation.
Nymph,
It was not without perspicacity that these mortals named their female’s rutting mental disease after you.
I thought Bearonidus “had my back” as these young ones are wont to say?
Too much wine, again?
Hell, I’m killing it again, shorting XOM .13cents from the HOD.
Good buys, BOCA.
Odds, bodkins!
Bearonidus revealed!
IFN back to “shitting the sink.”
I had posted the link for Woodshedder. Yes those people are naive investors. Its good to know Joe Public are bearish on the market.
I am not picking a bottom here. There will be no bottom till October November at the earliest. But we will have a rally. A very strong rally. I am positioning for one. Tuesday of next week looks good for a strong up day.
Cap, I agree there will be a strong rally. I think you will get killed trying to position before it. I hope you don’t.
If I were to play any rally, I would start by setting stops on all my shorts, to stop me out should any rally occur. Then, if on the second day after any rally, should the rally hold, then I would buy index longs.
Again, today’s action shows the importance of confirmation.
I caught your scoundrelry, young mortal who dwells in a backyard hovel.
How doest one change one’s name after one has posted? My experience has been that only the inscription may change?
Bring on the tinkling silver cymbals and muster up the pungent curries!
My removing my servant– James Dimon’s– liver is finally yielding the results I’ve sought!
this market is overbought. SPX to 1100.
How darest you accuseth me of trickery, when it was you, who tricked Bearonidus. Poor, young boy.
When you speaketh of Bearonidus having your back, I then became aware that you are no different than any other Greeks, that way.
I now know why you did not visit your Nymph, and I beseech you place forth your grape leaves back over your buggering business.
Where Fly is this Morning
___________________
Fly on the phone with one of his Big Clients:
No, no! Really, I’m not kidding… It’s just a schtick! Just a schtick!
I’m not really happy that I’m “debanking your IRA account!”
It’s for the site — entertainment value only!
(-click- dial tone…..)
Say good night, Brasilia!
Obrigado!