I ask myself, what kind of horse shit is this?
Then, I realize, it’s stock market horse shit. The kind of shit that falls on your face, while you’re on a hot date—in a high end restaurant.
Do the above sentences make any sense? No, of course not.
Is it important to be coherent at all times?
No, only when your Mother is around.
Looking at today’s tape, I genuinely feel bad for people who are long stock. I know the pain they are feeling in their gut right now— and it hurts and it sucks.
The stock God’s are fucked up like that. Do you know how many goats and Romanian lions I had to sacrifice, in order to get in their favour (sic)?
Quite a few, might I add.
Just when you think the market is going to break the fuck out, it punches your balls in, with the strength of 10 Marvin Hagler’s.
Sadly enough, many of you were probably celebrating, drinking champagne, eating low-end shrimp. Declaring final victory over the bears; because today was the bottom.
Then, all of a sudden, some jerkoff, with gold chains, broke into your office, punched your eyebrows off, drank your champagne—then stole your wallet.
That’s the market. Enjoy.
The problem with the market is simple:
Our mortgage insurers are on the brink of disaster. Keep an eye on [[MBI]], [[ABK]], [[RDN]] and [[MTG]]. Oh, and now people are speculating that the CFC-BAC deal will not get done. Frankly, I think it’s absurd; but the share price doesn’t lie.
If this market confuses you, just ask yourself one question:
With everything that has transpired in our economy, namely our banks, do you believe, in 11 months from now, the Dow Jones will be down a mere 7% or where it is now?
If so, fear nothing but empty manholes and go long.
In my opinion, we still have another 7-10% of downside left.
Viz.
NOTE: The banks are just getting annihilated here. Hence, I’m banking a profuse amount of coin in my [[LEH]] short and [[SKF]].
NOTE II: When stocks like [[S]] start tanking like this, you know the market is fucked.
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I owe my first born child to “the fly,” for the SKF call.
100% agree, we need a gap down 200 on the open then a late day massive buying recovery to show a bottom. Until then short the fuck out of DECK. Lean on it hard.
3 cheers for SWC new 52-week low!!!
HIP HIP – JJ!
HIP HIP – IS GAY!
HIP HIP – IS MORE BROKE THAN THE PILES OF CHINA I’M SMASHING VIA FXP!
Brasil being shorn of all bank via EWZ.
Commence the shelling.
Broker I am up around 35+% on DUG, how much longer should I ride her? Can we go higher? 55 maybe?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSNXZYEL9dk
the bottom is near when tim knight(slope on dope) sings a bear song?
Nice friggin call on DUG, Marty McFly!
Thanks for the SKF call.
I am interviewing a Sprint employee for a job today. Looks like I may have some added leverage in salary negotiations.
Great post. Genius at work on a Friday.
“Sadly enough, many of you were probably celebrating, drinking champagne, eating low-end shrimp. Declaring final victory over the bears; because today was the bottom.
Then, all of a sudden, some jerkoff, with gold chains, broke into your office, punched your eyebrows off, drank your champagne—then stole your wallet.”
Classic
Dow 12000 looks as good a bottom as any. Nice round number. Look for lots of buying support at that level
This has been a very humbling start to the year for me. My mustache has been punched off so many times I don’t think it’ll ever grow back. If it wasn’t for my GLD I probably would have seen how quickly I fall from a 8th. story window by now.
Where is that degenerate of a father Shorticus?
My hoplites will soon be at his temple steps to abduct him. I have ordered them to bind him in chains and drag him (kicking and screaming) to Lambeau Field where before throngs of watchers, I will proceed to kick his ass down the stadium steps. His Giants will not be able to come to his aid as they will be frozen in ice by Old Man North Wind.
“While the exact amount of reserves supporting the Bank of Shadows is undeterminable, let’s go back to the $45 trillion BIS estimate of outstanding CDS for more insight. If total investment grade and junk bond defaults approach historical norms of 1¼% in 2008 (Moody’s and S&P forecast something close) then $500 billion of these default contracts will be triggered resulting in losses of $250 billion or more to the “protection selling” party once recoveries are inserted into the equation. To put that number in perspective, many street estimates ascribe similar losses to subprime mortgages, a derivative category substantially distinct from CDS insurance.” Bill Gross
I yi yi !
Still more coin to siphon from the banks !
FLY, Tim Knight self-admittedly is not feeling so good, has been trading the wrong way along with some of the other “pros” on his blog. Just ain’t got their shit together – haven’t we been there also? As a friend, maybe you should advise him to change his tune and sing Kumbajha asap and post it publicly as this will certainly turn his fortune around, besides hinting at what he should buy or sell, at this point.
Speaking of the market, are you holding or folding, buying anything new before the long week-end?
Who’s Tim Knight?
Some third tier blogger?
This fucker wants to dive and somebody is injecting it with epinephrine, don’t want to embarass the hammerhead do we.
Calvino, what the fuck are you talking about? Stop being all cryptic and shit.
You know your old when you reference a Marvin Hagler boxing analogy. Roberto Duran symbolizes the bear market better. No Mas!
Sprint has never had a clue on how to grow a profitable business. It’s their contention that the best way to deal with a customer who calls their billing customer support line too much is to eliminate them as a customer! How does that create upward growth?
Sprint lays-off thousand of people every year. This is a reoccurring thing. It’s only a matter of time before they get bought out or file for bankruptcy.
calvino’s translator is not to be found today. Long weekend.
I’m not old, fucker. Only 31.
Just a big boxing fan.
The dow, it went 80 .
Marty McFly knows where he speaks. Those were the glory days in the sqaured circle. I was watching an Arguello fight a couple of weeks ago, and compared him to the shit Mayweather calls fighting. No comparison.
Any thoughts on whether we see the longs sell off before the long weekend, or is there a chance of a short squeeze at the end of the day? Looks to me like some folks unloaded SKF already.
I’ve converted over to the UFC. Mixed martials arts appeals to me as the primo bloodsport.
Boxing won’t ever go away, though. I like watching the clips of some of the older fights, e.g. Tyson vs. Douglas, Hagler vs. anyone, and of course the Frazier vs. Ali Thrilla in Manila.
Look you.
I’ll say this once:
“The Fly” is NOT concerned with intra-day or weekly moves.
Stop trying to be cute with your fucking trades and claim a bias.
Do you think stocks go higher or lower, 6 months from now?
Whatever you answer, take a position.
You’re all amateurs, Doug Kass included.
The last great showman was Prince Naseem.
He was one heck of an entertainer.
Douglas – Tyson, the most underrated fight of all time. Douglas was as good as ny heaviweight that day, including the Great One. Every time I watch it, I get more respect for him.
Ian, unless you know that Helicpoter is going to give you three quarters, you would not want to hold three days, would you?
Boxing and octagons are for pussies. Real men eat ears, uncooked.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot9QQE6I7FE
shorts are covering case helicpoter drops the 3/4 shitbomb, and longs are selling case he doesn’t.
Mr. Arbitrage:
You can’t hold a candle to me.
This is some crazy tape. Feels like something is going to explode, one way or another.
I’m leaving to go out of town at 3:00. I hate leaving before the market closes.
I’m not old, fucker. Only 31..
Calling bullshit on this or the “since 1994” slogan.
Unless you never went to college, which I doubt.
(Late response due to conference call)
WOW! I am not a religious man, but I just had the fear of God put in me. I appreciate the comments FLY and the stock recommendations.
calvino- Thanks as well.
75 bp cut is the financial equivalent of yelling “fire” in a crowded theater.
IOW — not first amendment protected. Clap that fucker in irons!
I’m pissed.
Set a stop on my JPM short because I had a long lunch meeting today and I couldn’t watch it.
Of course the fuckers swooped down and clipped me.
Fuckers.
WTF. I’ve got the kids screaming, car packed, wife ready to get on the road, and I’m like, “I’m fixin’ to leave. We’ll get to it dreclay. Honey, this is an eventful day, can’t leave yet….”
Where you headed?
Scouting Jamboree?
Gun Show?
Tent Revival?
Vist with the parents in Chucktown SC
Don’t look now, but the $VXN is looking a mite…. panicky.
Bring on the panic. Lets get the shit over with.
Jake:
I have been investing, one way or another, since I was 10.
My first real win was AMER, back in 1994.
Made 10x my money on it.
Chucktown’s nice.
Just not so much this time of year.
Be sure to bring back a couple of gallons of that she-crab soup they make down there, Kiawah-way.
Hmmmm… the Brownlings of the Amazon Basin country are displeasing me.
I believe I shall smite them now.
Tell me children — shall I be subtle and introduce a corn weevil into their major ethanol-base crop?
Or go all — how do you say it? — “Cecil B. DeMille?” on them with a nice tsunami to the Sao Paulo coin changing centres?
… ahem.
Move along, children.
Fly, this may be the perfect iBC Short:
Central European Media Enterprises, Ltd., (Nasdaq: CETV) together with its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and operates national commercial television channels and stations in Central and Eastern Europe. It operates a range of TV channels, including Nova TV in Croatia; TV Nova and GALAXIE SPORT in the Czech Republic; Pro TV, ACASA, PRO CINEMA, and PRO TV INTERNATIONAL in Romania; Markiza TV in the Slovak Republic; POP TV and KANAL A in Slovenia; and Studio 1+1, KINO, and CITI in Ukraine. The company broadcasts various types of programming, such as movies, series, sitcoms, news, soap operas, sports and entertainment programs, police series, and game shows, as well as other locally produced programming. Central European Media was founded in 1994 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Goatfucker TV!!
If the US gov’t create a firm, capitalize it with $250B, and guarantees all mortgages to be valued at 50cent on the dollar, the economy will be saved and the DOW will hit new highs this year.
That was Jim Cramer’s idea… =)
I agree.
6 months from now, US rates will be significantly lower, there will have been between 2 and 7 months of US recession (and counting), but stocks may be starting to look past the end of it(unlike today) at 09 vs 08 earns compares. So, yeah, 6 months from now US stocks could be higher than today even with recession earnings. But plenty of bouncy ugliness between here and there. Things decaying so fast I’m in the “quick and ugly” camp rather than the “long drawn out decline of western civilization” camp. Recession in elec year will breed lots of action, stupid or not, until something works.
China in 6 months, maybe still getting ugly.
i liked the DUG trade when oil was in the upper 90s but at 89/90, i think there is as much downside as there is upside. i bought DUG at 36 and 36.44 and must admit i sold too early — at $41, however this gain was achieved in a matter of days. the problem is that oil is correlated to the stock market right now. if the market does rally (short term if there is one) then DUG will go down. So you have random terror shit, geopolitical, and stock rallies as downside. my recc is sell DUG and put the money in the bank.