One of the key elements to yesterday’s trend that should have kept me from fading early on was the opening type.  Yesterday we saw a classic opening drive: the market opened above the value area highs spanning four days and didn’t look back.

Today we’re seeing a more balanced session overnight, with the action taking place within yesterday’s upper volume distribution.  I’ll be keying off the price action inside the upper boundaries of the P-shaped profile.  The single prints below can get slippery, should price trade back down into them, I’m playing for a swift move through them; a crushing blow to the bulls.

But mostly, I’m looking for digestion of yesterday’s move.  Should price consolidate within this upper distribution, we could see individual stocks fare very well.

Very solid market this morning for the $ES_F.  This is the type of action that comes after a huge consolidation like we saw over the last 4 or 5 sessions.

I took a long off the open that earned 1.5 points on two contracts.

Then I tried fading this mega move, taking 3 handles of heat on two contracts aka I gave it all back and more.

I’m not beating myself up over these losses, although I may go back to the drawing board to build in a caveat for fading moves after a long consolidation.

You can have a losing day according to your plan.  It’s the deviations that cause confusion, loss of confidence, and consistent losers.

The market is speaking clearly today.  It says, “Don’t fade me brah!”

UPDATE:  We had some jawboning jerk the overnight market up, we’re now dealing with a double distribution on the 24 hour profile:

It’s been a quiet morning session, but certainly of a different character than we’ve seen since entering this large balance zone.

Since the neutral day on the 9^th, I’ve been watchful for the next move out of balance.  This morning’s profile suggests we may see it today.

What I’m referring to it the toothy characteristics of the volume.  Recent overnight profiles have been near-perfect bell curves.  This morning not so much, instead the profile lacks a clear point of control.  Price rejected yesterday’s high overnight at 1633.25 and swiftly rotated lower, with a current low right at the major confluence of VPOCs at 1626.50.

As we progress into the morning USA session, I’m looking for the market to rotate higher off of the major VPOC level and result in another quiet open with little gap to trade.  However, if the buyers don’t file in to buoy this index, I suspect we may explore lower.

It’s been a solid morning so far for stocks as we continue to chug along on the value train mountain ride.  The question is are we about to begin a descent ala Thunder Mountain or will the engines continue to power higher using banks and Apple as fuel?

The morning offered me one setup that earned a single ES point.  I’ll take it to start the week.  The primary feature of the morning was a solid five handle rotation higher that buoyed many stocks along with it.  It filled the gap and now we’re watching the market consolidate so far above value.

It will be interesting to see if the market can hold onto this strength through the lunch hours.

I took some profits in YELP and BBRY this morning but still hold 2/3 positions in each.

I started a new long in ANGI, again.  Third time is perhaps the charm?

Expectations today are rather simple.  We have a large three-day value development occurring at these highs.  From Wednesday-Friday the market worked a value area with the control level between 1626 and1627.  Three VPOCs are stacked up at these levels.

Overnight we put a high in at 1627 in near-perfect confluence with the above value area.  Where we trade in relation to this level for the remainder of the day could be very telling of the market tenor for the week.

The overnight session started with a gap lower and thus far has been unable to recapture.  The action resulted in three rotations and a balanced session occurring almost entirely within Friday’s value area.  This tells we we’re still in balance, for the most part.  If the market continues to build acceptance below the value area, we could expect the next exploration of price to be lower, in search of buyers.

We’ve seen a pretty aggressive overnight session thus far in the ES globex.  The main feature of the session is two impressive rotations higher followed by a third not impressive attempt higher all coming together to form a head-and-shoulder pattern.  Interestingly, all of this activity is contained within yesterday’s range, occurring in above the midpoint of the session MOSTLY.

Yesterday I was making a fuss about the normal day we were seeing on the market profile because unlike the name, the occurrence is anything but.  A normal day has a wide base from aggressive early entry of a market participant followed by disruption of the intial balance (first hour of trade) both to the upside and downside.  It’s a strong signal that the market lacks directional conviction and the play is to aggressively fade the second range extension back to the mean.  It had about 5 handles of profit built into it.

Going into today, we know the market lacked conviction, we know it’s overbought on the stochastic or RSI or CCI or Keltner or Bollinger band studies and we also know it’s been up all week.  Therefore, I’m looking for sell orders to flow into the market.

It won’t be anything to get excited about, but we should keep in mind the proclivity to book profits into the weekend, the globex HnS, and the normal day.

Here’s the levels I’ll be working this morning:

I have very little to say today, as the influenza has me feeling rather faint this morning.  Have a look at the chart markup below.  Note the short squeeze last Thursday followed by the long liqudation yesterday.  Neither party is pushing their initiative yet.

Being a heathen of the highest order, it’s only fitting that the Lord would strike me and my family down with the influenza over the weekend.  A wave swept through our households violently, like the air from a vengeful sarcophagus.  Much like The Ben targets short sellers.

It’s death by vomit then dehydration for the short sellers.  Their only Gatorade is a margin call then rehab.

Let’s take to the profiles, shall we?

Click the chart to enlarge it to “chocolate bunny” size and read the key notes:

Early on I’m looking for sellers.  I don’t expect much from them, and I’ll look for buyers to balance out the trade above 1559.  Once the data comes out at 10am EST, I’ll look for either party to begin pushing their initiative.  Depending on who is asserting control of the tape, either the above profile notes for downside come into play, or we take out the highs and pump.  I’m ready for either.

Don’t let anyone fool you, it’s April first, fool.

http://youtu.be/V-_NMAllsJc

Before we attempt liftoff today buyers will want to defend the following levels.  If they don’t, I have my line in the sand for reducing exposure:

Futures are 10 handles lower since the European market opened. Here are some important levels of interest today: