Today started looking and smelling like a trend day about 10 minutes into the session. It all started with elroi getting worked over like a handrail at a roadside park. He was long at 8:32 am, tricked into going short at 8:57 am, and dealt an uppercut for the knockout at 9:37 am. It was painful to watch him get lit up, but it helped reveal opening type: opening drive. This occurred atop a gap higher, atop of a nasty TWTR beat down, and certainly the big KO deal with GMCR caught a few shorts flat footed.
The stage was set for a rally. We have PPT mojo in effect, too.
I took to my think or swim platform which was giving price quotes only, directed my browser to stockcharts.com and found KNDI was indeed looking sweet this morning. Someone in 12631 had bought it a buck lower. I bought a sizeable chunk, ¾ long. Then I went out just now and bought more.
I am over here, buying Chinese electric car stocks already up eight and a half percent on the day. The market wants to chop more of my nips off, because I lack discipline. Or do I? The KNDI chart looks great, and momo is concentrated to a few studs. Thus I am concentrating on a few studs. This either works very well, or blows my portfolio up.
Run and gun.
In other news, the solid state lighting trade is finally catching a bid, after sucking hard all year. Funny they should perk up while OESX gets crushed post earnings. This is all very perplexing. I am sticking with the theme until March at least, even staying long the cheese fed goats at OESX.
You knew it was bound to happen. You knew CREE cannot spelunk after ever single earnings announcement, right? To be honest (and we keep it honest in the humble world of Raul) my feet were chilly to the thought yesterday too. I went into earnings only half sized. Do you know where I was most certainly not reducing LED exposure?
In LEDS, in RVLT…the “party rock”
I floated some statistics about CREE stock behavior during and after their earning’s announcement on the pelican stream. They were rather interesting, really. They are free, too, in case you are wondering. CREE only trades higher 44% of the time after an earnings announcement BUT the session after an earnings announcement closes higher than the open 77% of the time. Hence, therefore, thus…one does not simply trust CREE through earnings.
Quite the contrary, you instead hunt an entry the next day. I bought CREE after it gap filled down and was trading BELOW where it opened today. The deck was stacked for your boy Raul. I made it a full size position, market order like a glut, and the rest is history. They I bought OESX at the low of the day.
Do you see what I did here? I completely pwned the LED trade, live on the interwebs. I am not exactly dancing the tapioca over here yet. My book is 25% concentrated into the LED industry as of the bell. A concentration some of you may perhaps deem mad.
Let me ‘splain something else to you. SINZO ABE will not be instigating any wars in the Far East. He took center stage at Davos proclaiming these words. He instead intends to lead an industrious nation and keep his battles economic in variety. This is very good news for the LEDs we love because most of their tiny components are assembled the laborious hands of China men and women.
Thus I am pressing the envelope with my LED exposure, and I intend do so until I see the whites of Thomas Edison’s eyes—live from the land of the dead. That last sentence makes no sense whatsoever. I possess the will of a madman is what I am trying to convey. Just be aware.
I have lots of other risk, side bets if you will, companies whose goals are all centered upon intelligent humans making more intelligent decisions. I could go on, but I have already said too much.
Take time to enjoy the traditional lighting around you if this is something you hold dear, for soon it will be only a small piece of your nostalgic pie.
Thu Oct 3, 2013 5:03pm ESTComments Off on I Am The Lizard King
I can do anything.
We sure do cover the /ES_F often over here on the Raul blog, discussing its…implications, if you will. Building the contextual cake helps me to identify abnormalities, flinches, and hand tips by the big money. The E-mini S&P is the most liquid financial instrument in the world. It makes sense to pay attention to it.
But trading it has become a slow and painful grind. It is like going years without a dish washer even though you love to cook. You get by, but your soul dies a little every day.
I needed some change (No Obama) so I traded the /NQ. I like the NQ…peep today’s stats:
Thoughts:
today had a large range
/NQ is thinner
smaller contract size suits my size a bit nicer
I trade lots of Nasdaq and Russell stocks so I may be concentrating my eggs
It offers more trading opportunities (at least lately)
/ES has been brain numbing, while I go ‘big pimpin’ on these wiry stocks. Speaking of which, my book was up a percent today. That is a result of stock prowess and hanging out with traders much more seasoned then me. Mainly my gains today were a result of being on the right end of a technology revolution. So while sour bastards get their kicks shorting Tesla, which is fine, I am embracing the future and finding opportunities to invest in it.
In short: CREE and RVLT what what?
I started buying ONVO too, right about at these levels. You can’t keep me out of this name. When my pickled organs give out I want robots around to print new ones. Seems like a no brainer at five fifty. I consider it an investment in myself.
I sold YGE. It felt like when I sold VIPS yesterday…too soon-ish. However, dwelling on these thoughts prohibits the mind from seeking opportunity elsewhere. I sold RBCN too, for a loss, because it sort of just fell out after mainlining hot money. I do not want to be around when the Apple WWDC crowd goes running for the doors, should they do so.
ADHD is a ticker which by design frustrates me, ripping higher like a freshman jacked up on Mountain Dew and Ripped Fuel. Ah high school…when ephedra was still legal. I have wanted a long on this one for a few weeks but my attention keeps darting away from it. Instead I want to Snapchat and play ping pong in the futures.
I do not really love the way we are setting up into the weekend. The market looks like the headless horseman. Sentiment sucks but the crowd isn’t always wrong. I have concentrated by book down to the following positions listed largest to smallest:
That jackass MJNA stock can burn up and go to zero for all I care. What a garbage stock. I am -20% on that field play. I thought about cutting O about 100 times, but I figure keep it and collect the yield. My basis is a tad below here.
Everything else I hold close to chest. As a matter of fact, I need more CREE and RVLT but I am exercising patience. Together the stocks represent almost 30% of my risk capital.
I will let Q4 play out a bit before getting more risk into those two names. In the mean time I can increase my LED exposure via VECO, RBCN, GTAT, OESX, and LYTS.
The kabuki theater kicked into high gear, scaring people. That is because when you are scared you flinch, and when you slip just that much, JUST THAT MUCH, algos will lance 100 holes in you.
The market is behaving itself like a top tier executive after a good night’s sleep. The market is reading the Wall Street Journal (have not read this paper in five or so years) while eating roasted duck and poached eggs. The market is driving the Bentley patiently into the office and greeting the security guard at the entrance with a gingerly tip of the hat. Then the market is meeting with its top advisors and strategizing the next big move.
The market is behaving very top hatted.
Yet jolts of fear are shooting across the bow of the stock world. They don’t want to chase your winners. Instead the smart money wants you to panic so they can buy your blood.
Stick with your best ideas, grab a wad of gumption and stick it in your cheek. Then spit at the losses you are incurring and welcome a little pain into your life.
I sold out of VIPS and MHR because these were trades aka cheap thrills. I want to focus on my core. I’m still an oil man so I simply took down a large position in USO.
Blocking out the news flow is difficult but the blissful ignorance that comes from it is worth the effort. Remember if something is important, my well curated twitter stream will tell me. Better yet, the professionals inhabiting the many rooms of iBankCoin will tell me. Anything local will be filtered to me via family, colleagues, and friends. This frees my mind to focus on order flow and sustaining and growing my revenues.
Some days however, often after eating too heavy of a lunch, my attention span degrades by the minute. For that reason I mostly do not trade futures in the afternoon. Instead I usually read, stare out the window, or look at Tina Fey nip slip pics. Nip slips always get my a.d.d. all worked up.
Anyhow, today I closed green by 1.25% even though I was up a rock star 3% intraday. I scaled off a bit of YGE. I could afford to do so because I timed my entry perfectly. The market provided me 7% gains, you see, by the time we reached swing high. I will book that bread any day of the week. I now have a lower cost basis and as close to a risk free trade as you can get in the markets.
How about that AMBA? I couldn’t be happier about tossing my Zillow shares in the dumpster to fund my AMBA purchase. The old me would still be in Zillow. The dead fish action would result in me drawing faces on lemons with a sharpie and then tossing said lemons into my Blendtec emotionlessly. The house would smell lovely as I died on the inside.
Zillow speaks to the selective nature of our market. ChessNwine has been keeping this thought at the forefront of our trading mindset in his Weekly Strategy Sessions. As a matter of fact, he brought my attention back to AMBA too. I mean, it never left my watch list, and I am a total GoPro fanboy, but the reminder was a nudge on the shoulder if you will.
This AMBA trade has taken conviction. I am glad to see mine coming back online.
Earlier I said this is all an appetizer, so you may be asking yourself, “What’s for dinner?” Well my friends, LEDs are for dinner…and sloppy joes. 2013 is the year of the LED, they simply took the 3rd quarter off. I have been financing these sleepy laggards with high level SHOMPPERY and 12631 magnificence, but it is high time they come online. My top picks into the fourth quarter are CREE, RVLT, OESX, LYTS, RBCN, VECO, GTAT, and AIXG.
I like CREE the best as a company, RVLT the best as a young man’s speculative investment, and AIXG for their Germanic tribal nature. I am long the trinity and will buy more of both after I spank a few more trades for stand up doubles.
I joined Le Doctour in BALT today. I really just like the chart picture, you know me. He does all the macro stuff.
Everyone is complaining about the way /ES traded today, but I had one of my better days. When you have an idea of the context we are in, bobbing along the bottom with no conviction, you know to get the laser sight out and get damn good entries to allow you to get out before the things stalls and reverses. We are learning over here and making a little bit of money while we do so. From the high win rate comes larger position sizing and eventually scaling. Then we make the big bucks.
Ah yes, I nearly forgot the point of this post—Everything you see is fake. The dog and pony show in Washington over Obamacare and debt ceilings is all fake, jack ass es. Do you really think any of this really matters, really? I does not. The terror threat elevation right at about 3:50pm? Yes, fake. Syria, real and sad, but so is every third world where cavemen kill each other for the best poppy fields. Making noise about them is fake. I have nightmares about a war on our land all the time because of these pundits and the terror threat bullshit. Even some nip slips are fake. I know, horrible times we live in..
Fear mongering from the glass half empty crowd is dangerous. Avoid the losers who can’t drop it.
Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:30pm ESTComments Off on $RVLT Becomes a Flaming Bag of Garbage
Clearly we’re just beginning to see the panic set in with shareholders of RVLT. Something about a stock being up 600 percent in a year’s time has folks a bit…oh I don’t know, spooked?
Meanwhile, a company I hold near-and-dear, OESX, a company I bought for $2.60 then sold for $2.30 in March is running circles around the old men with their stupid CREE and RVLT. And I liked OESX MONDAY, for the love of bologna.
It’s all simply too much to bear, for a coward. However, I don’t care about the severance pay RVLT dished out, it’s peanuts. I don’t care about how RVLT’s stock price slashes through one support level after another. All these jackasses need to do, and please excuse my retarted penmanship, is retrofit. RETROFIT.RETROFIT.RETROFIT. That’s why the purchase of Relume and Seesmart got me excited.
They now have the technology on hand to measure the savings their clients receive from retrofitting their bulbs. This allows them to structure financing deals based on the savings they produce—eliminating the capital outlay a business may be hesitant to forego. And they have a line of stupid LED bulbs to peddle: total vertical integration.
CREE’s bulbs are no better than anyone else’s. It takes China like 72 hours to bootleg anything American companies do. Hence, RVLT’s bulbs are in fact stupid, but no stupider [sic] then Cree’s.
So as long as RVLT hones in on retrofits, focusing on the low hanging fruit, they have the tools in place to go Johnny Appleseed on the USA. We’re in the management’s hands now. Are they closers or not? That’s all the matters.
