We’re experiencing a big of strength again in the overnight market, pressing us up against the all-time highs we experienced during yesterday’s globex session.  The important matter becomes how we handle these high water marks early on in the session.  Yesterday they were aggressively faded and we spent the remaining session stuck on support until an early afternoon rally which was faded.

If we can see price holding above 1693 during the first hour of trade, that alone would be an impressive achievement and could suggest the pain trade is on, pressing price higher when everyone is becoming more conservative.

I’ve highlighted some measured targets to monitor in the event we trade higher, and also a key support level and some notes about the large auction occurring this week in the following profile charts:

Comments »

As the rally pushes on, showing small signs of exhaustion but by no means cueing the fat lady, stocks…well most of them…are simply not providing the returns necessary to support the superfluous lifestyle we desire.

How is one to afford three-tiered infinity pools when their variable income is only a few hundos?

And I get it, it’s a tough tape, a stock picker’s market if you will, but none of this matters.  I want my cake.

Let it be known that I crushed the EXK trade so far and the BPZ awesomeness.  And I needed to because my two jumbos ENPH and TPX and a pair of smitten homos at a pride festival: useless to society.  On the day, I was up just a tad below 1%.

Futures are considered a different beast by some, but I think you just have to sharpen your lens and get a good timeframe that works for you.  For some it’s the 2500 contract volume bar, for others it’s renko bars or minute bars.  I use a range bar, currently the 6-tic.  But if you find a chart and like the way it trades over a few 100 days of data, go for it.  It’s no different than trading a stock.

My futures game is getting tight as in I know it’s getting close to reaching the next level of profitability.  I need to make sure the next time we see a real intraday opportunity in the market I can stick to my plan and not go cowboy on the tape.

Anytime the tape is levitating and I’m not making money, I start jamming into lots of names.  Instead, I’m doing the opposite, trimming some long exposure where I have wins and cutting out a few names.  I sold GRPN for example…at break even.

I’m sick of talking about myself, what’s working for you?  Are you playing the biotech lotto?  Are you utilizing an option strategy during earnings?

Are you crushing some earning’s action?

I know someone is coming all over this tape, I’d love to hear about it. (no homo)

I’m off to peddle graveyard roses for grocery money…

Comments »

After spending the morning getting myself well positioned in the futures, talking a bit of smack on the twitter network, and other general business tasks I grew hungry.

The pickle of it all was my damn minions aren’t here today, bastards.

So I had to go get some grub myself, oh the humanity.

And while I did, I was sequestered from my kickass electronics and forced to view the market through the lens of an iPhone.  Stupid-archaic-fossil phone!

As luck would have it, I was well positioned in the futures, buying 1687.25 in the ES_F.  I took a scale at a point and a quarter because the sellers appeared as if they would not relent.   Then as I cursed society’s insistence on dawdling through life, a small burst of selling caught me off guard and I covered my long for +0.75.

At that very moment, the move I planned on riding occurred, back the VPOC, without Raul.  All because I had to fetch my own food.

So far I missed my first scale in EXK too, because I held out for a few more pennies.  I’m sure it still gets it, but I wanted to get my first scale quick to fulfill the old instant gratification desire.

ENPH is plagued by a seller in and around $7.50, a jackass really.  TPX, my only position larger than ENPH, has been a cold fish for weeks, freezing my assets in place.  Do you see how much time I’m wasting?

Instead of getting frustrated, I went and talked to strangers about anything and everything besides the markets: the rampant bug infestations occurring, the blood red moon, the biblical rain storms…you know, stuff the common folk discuss.

All this, while I wait for my next setup…

 

Comments »

I don’t have much by the way of commentary this morning.  The market proved strong overnight mostly during the European session and since printing new all-time highs at 1695.50  we’ve seen a bit of digestion.

Continuation seems the most likely scenario, first to the measured target of 1696.50 and perhaps the 1700 century mark.

In case the market begins to break down and trade lower, we have several key reference points, including a bias zone from 1688 – 1687.25 meaning, you want to stalk long entries above, and shorts below when day trading.

I’ve noted the aforementioned levels and made note of the healthy auction taking place this week on the following market profile charts:

Comments »

There was a notable shift in the character of the S&P last week as we reached new heights.  There was a compression to the daily ranges, a drop off in the volume, a decrease in broad equity participation, and well structured auctions.

Starting yesterday evening with a small burst of strength, the globex session managed to print a six handle range which balanced out and shows a slight edge going to the sellers.

Longs want to see 1686.50 holding as support.  Otherwise we may begin retesting the pockets of low volume below in the composite profile built late last week.

Above, we have the current globex high at 1694.25 then the measured move target of 1696.  The close proximity of the measured target to the 1700 century mark means we should all have the level on our radar if the market sees early strength.

I’ve highlighted the levels I’ll be watching using the 24 hour profile today, to give visualization to the balanced overnight session.

Comments »

The market balanced out overnight after an early evening of weakness perhaps spurred on by the weak numbers out of tech giants Google and Microsoft.  Therefore, we should be cognizant of the market’s reaction to these afterhours moves early on today.

We have giants GE, SLB, and HON set to report any minute which could get things moving.

All this is important but shouldn’t take our attention too far from the broad S&P and how it behaves today.

Many of the Chicago traders are pleased with the recent market activity as it’s auctioning very neatly within the confines of the market profiles.  It’s also doing so in a very slow manner.  Therefore, it’s more important than ever to know their relevant levels as their confidence in the tape increases.

I’ve highlighted this week’s levels of key market activity in the following profile charts.  The ‘Launch Pad’ was discussed yesterday morning, and essentially represents the key accomplishment of the bulls this week.  We want to see them defending 1678.25 early on.

Comments »

Buyers are letting it be known they mean business between the range of 1672.75 – 1671.75 which is the price zone right above Monday’s long liquidation.  There is a perception that the market is a bargain at this price and below until there isn’t.

It’s my cue for today and if the auction remains tight, it’s my cue the remainder of the week.

Up above the bulls must contend with 1678.25, this price represents the peaks of the shoulders on the intraday head and shoulder pattern yesterday, just below the aggressive seller’s reaction at the all-time highs.  Any acceptance of price above this level will preclude a move higher.

The 24-hour profile has been building up since early Tuesday morning as price remains high and tight.  It does give us a clue, a cave in pricing that we may back-and-fill prior to launch.  Trade into the cave should be monitored for either a sharp knife though or a firm buyer rejection.  This range is from 1676 – 1673.50.

I’ve highlighted all of these dynamic characteristics in the following profile charts:

 

Comments »

Late yesterday morning we saw longs liquidated on the break of 1674.50 which happens to coincide with the value area low of our uppermost distribution.  The long liquidation that followed built the familiar b-shaped profile although the meat of the ‘b’ is a bit wider than in ideal pictures.  Nevertheless, it’s a general concept not a concrete rule.  It suggests the downward development failed to attract new initiating sellers into the market and a buying force greater than the sell flow stopped the downward action.

We have a few key upside levels today, the aforementioned 1674.50, the lower low on yesterday’s session which thus far held overnight at 1672.50, and the high VPOC at 1677.50.

Below we have a still incomplete profile, and trade down to 1664 should come as little surprise.  Bulls however want to see 1662.50 hold as support should we trade down to those prices.

I’ve highlighted these levels and more in the following profile chart:

 

Comments »

One of the marquee characteristics of climbing to new heights in the market or atop a mountain is small progression.  Think of a climber reaching uncharted territories: her steps become smaller, her moves more calculated and thought out.  The familiar trek below (profiles) gave a navigational map and experience to build progress on, now we’re taking measured moves.

The squatted range yesterday took time to break the initial balance, finally doing so to the upside.  We left an incomplete auction below and we’re likely to eventually fill out the 07/11 profile down from 1667 – 1664.  When this occurs, the treatment of the prices by the market could be a major sentiment piece.

Overnight we’ve been mostly balanced with a top-heavy profile.  A rotation down to 1674 early on would not surprise me.

There’s potentially market-moving data out ahead of the bell, but so far we’re set to open within yesterday’s value.  I’ll be eying the following levels and potential developments in market profile:

Comments »

I’ve highlighted a few pieces of market profile context to keep in mind this week as we wade into earnings with the market on the verge of all-time highs during peak summer heat.  A reasonable amount of back-and-fill would build round out the Gaussian distribution from Friday, taking us back down to 1664 without doing any real harm to the charts.  Even if we continue higher today without fulfilling this expectation, I suspect it will remain as unfinished business in need of reconciliation.

Overnight however, we’ve see the market working higher, buoyed by in line economic data from Asia which sent their bank stocks soaring higher.  As the US wakes up and begins to digest this news we will see them pressing the futures in either direction.

The last two sessions have built up plenty of energy, and we’ve been on the buy side of momentum for almost two weeks.  It’s just something to keep in mind.

I’ve highlighted a few pieces of support in the following profile chart:

Comments »