Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:06am ESTComments Off on Day after trend day ;-) here’s the Friday NASDAQ trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price made a new weekly high overnight before driving lower. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range.
On the economic calendar today we have Markit manufacturing/service/composite PMI at 9:45am, existing home sales at 10am, and monthly budget statement at 2pm.
Yesterday we printed a trend day. The day began with a gap down that erased much of the reaction higher Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC rate decision. Buyers drove higher off the open, closing the overnight gap, taking out overnight high, then continuing higher, trading up into price levels unseen since October 4th (the first day of hard selling on the NASDAQ at the beginning of Q4’18. The volume point of control shifted up near the high near the end-of-day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7535. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7544.75. Look for sellers up at 7584.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down to 7440.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers erase much of the trend up, trading down to 7409.25 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, after a brief evening rally, eventually trading back down to where price was before the FOMC interest rate decision [benchmark borrowing rate left unchanged (expected) and tone/verbiage considered ‘dovish’ (accommodating/expansive) by most participants]. Overall the Globex session has been contained inside the Wednesday range. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out below expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range.
Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The session began flat and with a tight two-way auction . Said tight auction first went range extension up, then it went neutral (offering a great long entry point) then it coiled into the FOMC decision. After the decision we rallied to a new 2019 high, trading just a few point above the 10/09/18 high, into levels unseen since 10/05 before responsive sellers stepped in and worked price back to the daily midpoint. The day ended with price hovering well above the daily mid.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7403.75. From here we continue higher, trading up through overnight high 7440. Look for sellers up at 7466 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 7367.75 setting up a move to target 7334 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 local-to-local chop, close overnight gap 7403.75 and take out overnight high 7440 but then stall into a tight two-way chop.
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:07am ESTComments Off on Drift in the forecast until FOMC rate decision, here’s the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat (v.slight gap up) after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along inside the Tuesday range. At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in below expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below the Tuesday midpoint.
At 2pm today we have an FOMC rate decision. According the CME Fed Fund futures, there is a 98.7% probability of no change [UNCH] their benchmark borrowing rate. We also have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.
Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The day began with a gap up and tight two-way auction. Sellers briefly pushed us range extension down in the late morning, but there was no interest in going lower. Instead buyers rejected a move back into the Monday high and drove us to a neutral print, stalling just a few ticks ahead of the weekly ATR band. Sellers then stepped in and reversed the entire daily range and eventually closed the overnight gap. Buyers stepped in during the final 15-minutes and worked price back up, but not beyond the daily mid.
Neutral day, and a choppy one.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7392.25 before we balance out and mark time. Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC rate decision to drive direction into the second half of the day.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7353 setting up a move to target 7334. Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC rate decision to drive direction into the second half of the day.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to 7426.50 before we balance out and mark time. Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC rate decision to drive direction into the second half of the day.
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:27am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ probing early-October levels, here’s the Tuesday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, trading up into levels unseen since October 9th. As we approach cash open, price is hovering up in the 10/09/18 range.
On the economic calendar today we have factory orders and durable goods at 10am.
Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day. The day began with a slight gap down followed by a drive higher. Price took out recent swing highs and managed to go range extension up before responsive sellers stepped in. Said sellers took price down to last Friday’s midpoint, pushing us neutral before we eventually climbed back above the daily mid.
Neutral day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into the Monday high 7379.50 setting up a move up through overnight high 7395.50 to target 7422.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7360 setting up a move down through overnight low 7347. Look for buyers down at 7334 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 7309.50 before two way trade ensues.
Apparently my finance/trading content sucks. It’s self-serving, unoriginal, and as if that weren’t enough—it’s rude.
The annoying thing is, I’ve been way more ‘right’ in my approach and predictive analysis than all the popular accounts.
A blog that only exists for the sake of improving my own trading game. I’ve been doing this for a real long time, hardcore addicted to trading, studying, learning, blogging and communicating my technique since 2009. I tried to make my words more entertaining for a while. My views went way up, my ego followed alongside, and my trading suffered.
Nowadays I only blog about a news bit or ticker symbol or macro thingy if I think something really needs to be said. The morning reports read like instructions for a universal remote. They are filled with money making goodies, like LITERALLY the best nq_f trading levels in the industry, but you don’t care. You want to be entertained, perhaps to escape an otherwise monotonous job in the wonderful world of finance.
Save yourself the time then and steer clear of the RAUL blog. This is a place for hardcore traders who are determined to take control of every investment/trading decision made on their own behalf (and perhaps for the people they hold dear), and to do so with the explicit intent of extracting fiat from the global financial complex.
MOVING ON
The model is bullish again. It was neutral last week, but all you had to see was Monday morning’s action to know what needed to be done Tuesday. Many a RAUL blog have centered around how to trade the day after a trend day, I’m sorry I wasn’t here to refresh you. I was out east, exploring the snow storm hitting Vermont and snowboarding before global warming reasserts itself and sinks us back into another godawful hot summer. I did tweet, and if you want to follow along with my running mental dialogue, this is the place to do it:
The gambling halls in Chicago are currently placing a 1.3% probability on the Fed to drop interest rates by 25 basis points this Wednesday. Imagine the Fed actually being dumb enough to LOWER interest rates with wonton degeneracy already heating up in the house flipping market. These are not intelligent bets:
In summary, the upcoming Fed meeting is not a live meeting. Rates will stay UNCH. The predictive models prepared and operated here on the RAUL blog expect a calm drift, perhaps with an upward bias—drifting until Wednesday afternoon. Then we will use third reaction analysis after the rate decision to predict direction into the second half of the week.
IT REALLY IS THAT SIMPLE HAHAHA, YES!
If you want complexity, and confusion, there are lots of chart loving, statistic spouting, podcast jaw-jackin’ accounts for you to spend your precious time on.
YEAH JAW JACKIN’ BEATIN’ IT YEAHHH
If you want simplicity, you can stop by the RAUL blog weekdays around 9am and Sunday afternoon for the absolute minimum amount of communication on how to make money.
RAUL SANTOS – March 17th, 2019
Exodus members, the 226th edition of strategy session is live. I am slowly warming up to trading bitcoin futures, or perhaps just trading the underlying bitcoin but using the futures trading data to drive decisions. Keep an eye on Section III. Also, check out exactly what I expect from the PHLX semiconductor index, for it will likely tell the whole story, even if the broad indices seem murky.
Sadly, many of you actually BELIEVE that major markets,billions of dollars in daily liquidity, and tens of thousands of daily participants are, in fact, rigged. If this is you, do yourself a favor and stop trading now.
You are going to lose all your money.
Listen, markets do not care how you are positioned. They are a representation of the net interaction of everyone participating. Do individual stocks with low liquidity present manipulation risk? Yes. Does the NASDAQ 100? No.
If you cannot surrender yourself to the fact that you are completely powerless in affecting the outcome of a liquid market, AND also accept that it is a fair auction that simply exists to facilitate transactions, you will be dealing with some serious mental headwinds while attempting an activity (trading) that requires clarity.
I have been a dick these last few weeks on Twitter. If someone has a bias different than mine, I have been trying to get into their head and drive errors. I am going to stop doing it. Some people will always let their ego run wild. I really shouldn’t get in the way of them making mistakes anyhow.
It’s the bad side of being hyper-competitive. I want to destroy people when I need to be more compassionate.
Anyways, the upcoming week is shady. The March futures contracts are still trading, which skews volume studies. I will be trading the June contract starting Monday morning. And my main guide for the upcoming week will be the PHLX semiconductor index. Last week, in the Strategy Session, I highlighted how it could set up a bear trap. Well, it appears it has. How we go forward from here will tell the story for the entire stock market:
Position accordingly.
Exodus members, the 225th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!
Fri Mar 8, 2019 8:37am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ off another quick -50 into Friday, here’s the trading plan
NOTE: I will be trading the /NQH19 (March) contract until next week, and all price levels noted below are in reference to the /NQH19 contract, despite most major investors rolling forward to the June contract yesterday.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, straight and steady down into the 2/21 range before coming into balance. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside the 2/21 range. At 8:30am Non-farm payroll data came out far worse than expected. The initial reaction is selling.
Also on the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Jay Powell set to speak this evening, after market close.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began flat and then with a drive lower. Buyers stepped in at the 2/21 open gap and we drove back up to the daily mid. Sellers defended mid and we rotated back to the low near end of day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7031.75. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7034. Look for sellers up at 7054 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers gap and go lower, trading down to 6907 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to 7089 before two way trade ensues.
Thu Mar 7, 2019 8:35am ESTComments Off on Volatility compressing, NASDAQ flat into Thursday, here’s the trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and range. Price was balanced overnight and as we approach cash open prices are hovering along the Wednesday low. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better-than-expected.
Also on the economic calendar today we have a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began flat and a brief two-way auction gave way to selling. Sellers were able to push the market range extension down early on. Then we checked back to the daily midpoint, sellers defended, and we ended the day chopping along the daily low.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7126.75. Look for sellers up at 7138.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7168 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7082.50 setting up a move to target the open gap at 7035.25 before two way trade ensues.
Wed Mar 6, 2019 8:44am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ stuck inside Monday’s range, here’s the Wednesday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price was balanced overnight, trading along the Tuesday midpoint. At 8:15am ADP employment data came out below expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Tuesday mid.
Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by the beige book at 2pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down and small move lower. Responsive buyers were on the scene near the Monday NVPOC 7130 and from there onward we auctioned higher, closing the overnight gap, going range extension up and eventually settling into two-way trade before buyers could take out the Monday high. The day ended just above daily mid.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7164.75. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7168.75. Look for sellers up at 7186.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up and probe Monday high 7211.50. Look for sellers just beyond, up at 7222.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7138.75 setting up a move to target 7100 before two way trade ensues.
Tue Mar 5, 2019 8:25am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ holds midpoint overnight, stabilizes into Tuesday, here’s the trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked sideways overnight during a balanced session that held onto Monday’s mid. As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the key intra-day reference point.
On the economic calendar today we have new home sales and ISM non-manufacturing at 10am, a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11am, and a Treasury budget release at 2pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up and slight push higher before sellers stepped in and drove price lower, successfully closing the overnight gap and continuing lower, down near last Thursday’s low (right along the weekly ATR band), before buyers stepped in. Said buyers worked price back up above the daily midpoint by end-of-day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7169.25 setting up a move to target 7186.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 7125.75, setting up a move to target 7100 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to 7200 before two way trade ensues.
